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Broadermarket

a two year bull market. what has changed?its been 756 days since the bottom in the s&p500. the weekly is on an extended bull run to the 6000 region. last week has been the biggest drop in volatility in this trend. large risk on weeks come with pullbacks, but this week hasnt bearishly diverged from the trend yet. fib time zone tells us the trend hasnt reached a local maximum yet. the general trend hasnt changed since monday may 15 2023. since signal hasnt changed i wouldnt try to short this market yet. a breach of this dopen would probably lead to a pullback around pmVAH, and i would look to do this by ftz 13. still a local bear move toward the 5800 region isnt unthinkable. i would still rely on this broader market move setting higher weekly lows and vreaking to new all time highs for the foreseeable future, which is why im leaning long here, even with the advanced age of this bull market (even post election).
SP:SPXLong
by cerealindicator
are we bottoming out in vix?its too early to tell the weekly picture, but the daily and 4hr appear to be turning the tide for the broader market in a bearish direction, and that mean uvxy could see high $5s. if we do create a top in spx, and uvxy does begin to climb today i would only at first assume its a temporary pop, but if we truly start unravelling uvxy could see high $6s. count on the market and spx returning to bull as long as were in this weekly inside bar scenario. i am all cash until we pick a direction.
CBOE:UVXY
by cerealpatterns
short vol coming off near outside upweve gained in the market, shed short volume on vix, shed weight on short vix, and lost slightly in svxy. if you study the long term picture svxy is near breakout. 69.69 and 79.79 roughly are levels to beat before were really in the green to clear $100 as the market rebounds. ive drawn a path that can hopefully outline what the topping out proccess could look like as uvxy heads for 1:10 reverse split. normally we revisit the fib bands when price comes off overbought, but im still bullish while were above mon-wed lows targeting 66.66
CBOE:SVXYLong
by cerealpatterns
lets talk about a broader turn around in technologytechnology has led the market down. semiconductors have led technology. this stock has exhibited particular rate of change and other bullish volume based oscillations. bil williams ma, vwma, ema, trama as well as displaced ma are also bullish along trend lines. this leads me to a swing vased strat for continuation following the concordant supports, resistances and resulting ghost feed. this goes for stock like NVDA, and the broader market too. i am selling as spx approached 4035-4037, and i am hedging on pullbacks in taiwan semiconductor by buying SOXS and scalping for a few pennies at a time. im long the broader market with TQQQ on breaks of resistance or support on daily higher lows.
NYSE:TSMLong
by cerealpatterns
right here, right meowin a perfect world we would be able to say that this is the start of a broader market recovery with an almost absolute degree of certainty. this is the real world however, and we all have to keep in the backs of our minds that things could still go very badly for longs. that being said bulls do appear to be keeping control of this bounce, and shorts look like theyre ready to start hitting pretty major stoplosses starting a massive squeeze. if we stay over this area, and steer all signals upward im banking on hitting those upper levels, and if we dont... then we dont. we are probably headed back to the lows at the very least, and possibly much lower if we cant maintain this momentum. however we are quite near confirmation of the first weekly higher low in more than a year. that is major.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by cerealpatterns
whether to go bull based on this daily bounce alonei onlywant to long bull breech of this pivot, short the upper horizontal, long the lower horizontal, or short a bear touch of this pivot. if sss and qqe go long, im long. if qqe and sss go short, im short. if trama gets touched,and heads down with price that adds to a bear case. if trama acts as support and rises that adds to the bull case. this applies to the full broader market spectrum, and the crypto space when the dollar is bearish for a bull crypto scenario, and dxy is bullish for a bear crypto scenario.
AMEX:SPYLong
by cerealpatterns