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S&P Soars on Election Results in a Stunning RallyLast week's market movements provided a strong example of how impactful certain events can be on sentiment and momentum. In the last market recap, I highlighted uptrend continuation as the most likely scenario. However, at the start of the week, there was absolutely nothing on the chart suggesting a V-shape pivot. Week started on a weak note, but Tuesday marked a shift, as buying interest began to surface, quickly escalating into a stunning overnight gap once preliminary election results emerged. Essentially, the election results had a similar impact on the market as an earnings report can have on a company's stock price. This influx of optimism solidified bulls' control over the market, reinforcing a strong weekly uptrend. The buying wasn’t limited to a few sectors; instead, it was widespread, touching every major sector by the week’s end. Such broad-based buying underscores that the rally is not sector-specific but part of a larger, systemic movement. While we’re seeing robust upward momentum, it’s worth noting that both weekly and daily RSI levels are approaching overbought territory. However, as often observed in strong uptrends, prices can comfortably persist in the overbought zone. With no clear resistance above, I would strongly discourage trying to catch the top. Important levels to watch include 585 (VAH) , which is key in the event of a potential retest of the last consolidation zone, and 568 (major weekly low) , which buyers must protect to maintain control. P.S. If you missed this insane rally, don’t blame yourself too much. Had the election outcome been different, it’s easy to imagine the market would have plunged just as dramatically. So holding short-term position was similar to trading company earnings, which is, in a way, a form of gambling.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
S&P Weekly RecapLast week saw significant moves in the S&P 500 , with Thursday’s open revealing a sharp gap down that quickly intensified into a strong sell-off. This correction unfolded despite strong earnings from “Big Tech” and was likely driven by weakness in key economic indicators, such as GDP growth and Non-Farm Payrolls, combined with uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. elections. Still, the broader weekly uptrend remains intact for now, as long as the index holds above key levels. One area to watch closely is the 566.6 support, which has been tested by recent volatility. There’s no guarantee that this level will hold if selling pressure continues, so it’s a crucial line to monitor. That said, the general uptrend is considered safe above 538 , which is the major weekly low. Another significant level to watch is 561.5 , the Value Area High (VAH) of the recent weekly consolidation zone. An interesting signal was the elevated call/put ratio on Friday. This uptick suggests that, despite the sell-off, bullish sentiment remains alive, with many viewing the dip as an opportunity. The continued strength of the XLC sector further reflects this optimism, as it managed to hold firm even through the broader index’s pullback. Considering all the above, the long-term market outlook remains bullish. Key levels to watch in the coming days are 566.6 for immediate support, 561.5 as an important pivot point, and the weekly major low at 538 . Next week is packed with high-impact events, including the U.S. elections and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision . Both are likely to drive heightened volatility and could serve as key catalysts for market direction.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
S&P sellers kick in, but the market remains strongLast week was marked by some selling activity. As anticipated, sellers took advantage of temporary bullish exhaustion and attempted to push the market down. A strong sell-off occurred on Wednesday, with the market losing 1.2%. However, this sharp decline did not see much follow-through, as the price found strong support at the top of the previous consolidation zone ( 574.7 ). On Friday, buyers even attempted to set a new daily high, but they were unable to maintain it through the close. All of this leads me to believe that the sellers are not particularly strong, and we remain in a broadly bullish environment. A few key points supporting this bullish outlook include: 1. The weekly uptrend is still intact, and there is ample room for this weekly higher low. 2. There is relative strength in "risk-on" sectors (XLK, XLY), suggesting that bullish sentiment hasn't completely faded. While we might see some short-term rotation within the 584.5–574.4 range, defined by two daily candle wicks (Wednesday and Friday), the long-term outlook remains decidedly bullish. This week, important economic data will be released, along with earnings reports from major tech companies. This is likely to cause increased volatility, but unless there are major negative surprises, bullish sentiment should remain solid.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
S&P Bulls Hold Strong, But Is a Market Cooldown Coming?Last week wasn't particularly remarkable. Despite two bearish attacks (on Tuesday and Thursday), buyers still managed to push the market to a new historical high. It was somewhat concerning that they couldn’t sustain the high for even an hour after the open, but since the bearish movement didn’t gain momentum on Friday, the bulls still have the upper hand. We may see some consolidation in the upcoming weeks, as there are signs that the rally is approaching exhaustion (weakening of upthrust, weekly RSI entering the overbought zone, weakness in XLK). However, this market has repeatedly demonstrated its resilience and ability to exceed expectations. The long-term outlook remains bullish, but given these signals, it would be prudent for buyers to downsize their positions and refrain from selling PUTs. Mind TSLA report on Wednesday as it can cause some volatility and act as a trigger.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
S&P bulls maintain control but no initiative yetLast week was characterized by controlled selling, with prices drifting down slowly as the market awaited the unemployment data released on Friday. As we can see on the daily chart, sellers were unable to close the day below the previous day's low, even after a significant sell-off on Tuesday. Once the unemployment data was published, alleviating concerns about a potential recession, the bulls regained control, and the week closed on a positive note. The next key objective for buyers is to break through the resistance around 574.7 . Given that this level has been retested multiple times, it's unlikely to hold. However, we still need to closely monitor the price's reaction to this level and observe what happens immediately after the breakout. The long-term outlook remains bullish. In the short term, there is still a high possibility that prices will continue consolidating within the 565–575 range , as the market remains influenced by political uncertainty in the U.S.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
S&P sets new high but weakness is mountingLast week, the market traded within a narrow range, yet still managed to reach new highs. The bulls remain in control of both the daily and weekly timeframes, although I’m not entirely comfortable with the structure that has developed over the past five days. Most of the growth occurred during extended hours, while during regular trading hours, the market either remained in a tight range or moved downward. This structure is fragile and could easily break, though I’m not ready to call for shorts just yet. Firstly, it hasn’t broken. We're still in a bullish wave on the daily timeframe — in the past two weeks, none of the days have closed below the previous day's low. Secondly, even if the structure breaks, we should not expect significant follow-through, as the market remains very bullish. Here's a quick recap of the key points supporting the bullish thesis (you can find the rest in my previous review): 1. The Fed cut interest rates by 0.5 percentage points, which is positive for both the economy and the stock market for several reasons, such as cheaper borrowing costs. 2. The SPX has reached a new all-time high, which is highly bullish. 3. Both the weekly and daily charts show a strong uptrend. For the market to reverse, there would need to be a significant shift in sentiment, likely triggered by some fundamental event. From a technical standpoint, the uptrend remains intact as long as the bulls hold the previous major low ( 538 ). Until then, any "red" waves should be viewed as mere pullbacks within the broader upward movement.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
The S&P rally continues, defying all fears of a recessionLast week was marked by erratic price movements, leading many to recall the old adage, "no trade might be your best trade." The most confusing (and devastating) price action occurred on Thursday following the FOMC's interest rate decision. The Fed cut rates by 0.5 percentage points, sparking fears of an upcoming recession. Wednesday ended with a strong bearish "falling star" candle, tempting traders to take large SHORT positions. To be honest, I would have likely done the same if I had been trading that day (luckily, I wasn’t), as the least one would have expected was an overnight rally that wiped out short positions when the market opened on Thursday. This series of events is a perfect example of what makes trading so challenging— even a solid setup can fail spectacularly without any clear reason. Now, let's try to assess the current situation : 1. The Fed cut rates by 0.5 percentage points – This is actually positive for the economy and the stock market for many reasons (e.g. cheaper borrowing costs). At the same time there are no objective signs of a recession, only fears. 2. The SPX reached a new all-time high – How can this be bearish? 3. Both weekly and daily charts show a strong uptrend. 4. Almost all major SPX sectors closed the week strong, reflecting investor confidence. In summary, the market remains very bullish , with no indication that the trend is reversing anytime soon. Short term price action might be erratic, but long-term things look good both from technical and fundamental perspectives. Let’s stay calm and prudent. Important levels: Last major weekly high (538). As long as it holds buyers have control over weekly chart.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
S&P bulls regain control, aiming for the new highAfter the major sell-off in the first week of September, the market has made a U-turn, rebounding to its previous highs. This outcome was anticipated as highly likely in my last review, though, as is often the case, the market exceeded boldest expectations. Currently, we have confirmed a weekly higher low, which provides a solid foundation for the continuation of the uptrend. It’s also worth noting that the rally is being driven by risk-on assets like XLK and XLY, reflecting growing investor confidence. The mid- and long-term outlook remains bullish, though heightened volatility is expected as we approach the US elections. Important levels: 539.4 - major weekly low. Bulls must protect this level to keep uptrend intact 565.2 – major monthly high. There might be some resistance at this level. Bulls must clear it for uptrend continuation. FOMC meeting is set for Wednesday but it is not expected to bring big surprises.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
S&P recovers; bulls maintain long-term controlThe last week of August was sluggish, despite several exciting events. First, NVDA’s earnings, although very strong, failed to boost the market beyond its daily trading range. The GDP and inflation data (positive) released later also didn’t provide sufficient momentum, and the market continued to bracket. The week closed at the high, but buyers didn’t manage to break out of the trading range and confirm control of the daily timeframe. We can conclude that the market has reached a temporary balance—both bulls and bears seem content with the current price and lack the conviction to initiate strong moves. Zooming out to the monthly view, August closed green, near the historical high. The long lower wick signifies a bullish rally that brought the price up from the low, indicating the strength and conviction of the bulls. Although the bulls didn’t manage to achieve a new high, they still maintain long-term control. Overall, the market is still in a monthly and weekly uptrend. Even if sellers manage to set a weekly lower high in September, it is unlikely to mark the start of a trend reversal. Buyers have created enough space for potential weekly consolidation that will not threaten their long-term control. Important levels: Last major weekly trend high (565). If buyers manage to move above and hold they will confirm continuation of monthly uptrend. Last major weekly trend low (510). Buyers must protect this level if they want to keep long term control Short Term Trading range (555-564). Breaking out from the range in either direction will mark gaining of a short-term control.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
S&P bulls are strong; new historical high?Last week was marked by an increase in selling pressure, which, despite all efforts, has not had a significant impact. As we can see on the daily chart, the stairstep pattern remained intact—even a powerful attack on Thursday was unable to break the previous day's low. The bulls maintained control, leading to a small rally the following day (I highlighted the importance of the stairstep pattern in my previous review). As we approach the end of the month, there are a few things to keep an eye on: 1. The price is in a weekly uptrend, which has not been seriously threatened so far. Buyers maintain long-term control over the price. 2. The daily timeframe is also under buyers' control. 3. All major S&P sectors are moving in the same direction. Price is approaching previous major high ( 565 ), which can act as a resistance but there is no guaranty that it will hold for long. The last consolidation, which began on July 17th, was triggered more by bullish exhaustion than by strong selling at this level. This suggests that there may be little to safeguard it. Given all the above, there is no reason to believe that market is currently under threat. For the trend to shift to the bearish side, three things must happen (from the TA perspective): 1. Daily Sellers must take down the previous day low, breaking stairstep pattern 2. Weekly Sellers must take down the previous week low ( 553.8 ), setting weekly lower high 3. Month should close red (below 552 ) Until then we’re in a bull market.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
S&P bulls amazing coming backLast week, buyers continued to surprise by maintaining the impressive rally that began on Monday, the 5th. Observing the daily chart, we can see that for 10 consecutive days, the price has been setting new highs, never falling below the previous day's low. As of today (Monday, the 19th), the bulls have retraced 80% of the last bearish wave. It's also notable that buying occurred across all major S&P sectors, not just in a few big names. Here is the current market disposition: 1. The market is in a weekly uptrend, with a new major low officially confirmed at 510 . 2. On the daily chart, we see a beautiful stairstep pattern. 3. The only technical resistance above is July’s high of 565 , but given the rally's momentum, it is likely to be surpassed. The long-term outlook is unequivocally bullish. The short-term outlook is also bullish, as long as the daily stairstep pattern remains intact. For short traders, it is advisable to refrain from trying to catch the top. The current momentum is so strong that it could easily break all technical resistances. The only situation where I would consider cautious shorting is at the daily stairstep pattern break.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
S&P bulls return in the game; still some work to doLast week, buyers regained control on the daily timeframe, filling the gap from Monday, August 5th, and closing the week at the high. While this was a strong display of power, I would approach it with caution for the following reasons: 1. The market is currently in a weekly consolidation phase. We've already seen how strongly the bears defend their control on the weekly timeframe (as evidenced by the last week of July), so this should not be disregarded. 2. The magnitude of Wednesday’s bearish candle demonstrates how easily the bears can move the price when they feel weakness 3. While all major sectors closed week green, none has managed to close above previous week high. Most of them are in a weekly consolidation, which signifies genuine market weakness. To sum it up, while it's highly likely that the bulls will be able to confirm a weekly low ( 510.3 ) in the next days, it's uncertain whether they will be able to maintain their position for long. I would definitely wait to see the week’s close before considering a “buy.” Ideally, the bulls should fill the gap from Friday, August 2nd, and establish some value above 534 . If this doesn't happen and we see a strong price rejection, it would confirm bearish control. The upcoming week is packed with economic data, which could fuel momentum for either side.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
S&P weekly consolidation in progress; bears prove controlLast week was marked by hectic price action in both directions. Bulls failed to set a daily low for two consecutive days (Monday-Tuesday), which logically led to a strong bearish attack. Then something peculiar happened – the price pivoted near the previous low and went up during the overnight session. The market opened with a huge gap on Wednesday, held the open, and even managed to rally further in the regular session. I can only imagine how many short traders, who had done everything right, suffered from this. This price action also confused many long traders, including myself, by making us believe that the weekly consolidation was coming to an end. But Thursday turned the board 180 degrees again with a psychotic bearish move, wiping out more than 2% of the market value. Again, as with the bullish rally, there was no obvious trigger unless you believe that PMI data could wield such importance. At this point, we have the following disposition: 1. The market is still in a weekly uptrend. Until sellers take down the previous major low (491), nothing changes in this regard. 2. Bears have proved strong control over the weekly timeframe. We should respect this. 3. Bears were also able to start monthly consolidation, another sign of their strength. All in all, I wouldn’t consider any long-term “buys” until bulls manage to set a convincing weekly low, even then with caution. Shorting is an option but is very tricky in light of what happened last week. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYShort
by hermes_trisme
S&P weekly consolidation ongoing; uptrend still intactLast week began with a bull rally that was very short-lived. Sellers stepped in, driving the price down through the last consolidation (and potential support) zone. By the end of the week, the market experienced a 180-degree shift in sentiment, with Friday closing with a bullish inside candle. Currently, we have the following disposition: 1. The price is in an uptrend on the weekly chart, indicating that long-term buyers still maintain control. 2. The daily chart shows a downtrend, but so far, sellers have only managed to retrace 50% of the previous green wave. 3. There is an unfilled gap from Wednesday, the 24th. If bulls can fill this gap this week, it will demonstrate their strength. From a fundamental perspective, there was no significant negative news. On the contrary, the inflation data was quite positive, and earnings were mostly decent, except for TSLA. This suggests that the current downtrend is just a controlled weekly consolidation. Therefore, we should look for a weekly higher low to enter LONG positions to capitalize on the continuation of the weekly uptrend. A lot will depend on the Big Tech earnings reports coming out this week, but so far, there is no reason to expect negative surprises. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
S&P dragged down by US politicsLast week, the market was significantly affected by political uncertainty in the US. Technically, everything looked decent, and there was no change in fundamentals as inflation continued to slow down and banks reported positively. Given this, I was expecting a rotation within a narrow range, but the uncertainty was too strong, causing a sell-off in all major sectors (see Market Strength Index). The only sector that showed some resilience was Financials, but even it eventually succumbed. The week closed very weak, with a bearish engulfing candle, which formally starts a weekly consolidation. It is important to remember that the market is still in a weekly uptrend, and we should treat weekly consolidations as short-term pullbacks until the price sets a convincing lower high on the weekly chart. I would expect the price to try retesting the gap from Wednesday, the 17th. Whether this retest is successful or not will determine the future of the market. It is also likely that in the coming months, the market will be very sensitive to political developments. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYShort
by hermes_trisme
S&P is strong; however, some immediate uncertainty loomsLast week was marked by a very slow start and a chaotic finish. On Monday and Tuesday, prices bracketed in a very narrow range with neither side willing to take action. On Wednesday, the bulls gathered some momentum for a rally only to be countered by the bears the next day. While the bears’ attack appeared fearsome, it lacked real conviction (as I pointed out in my report), and it eventually faded. On Friday, the bulls took the initiative, erasing all the bears’ achievements. From a technical perspective, we have the following disposition: 1. Price is in an uptrend on all major timeframes. Last week closed quite strong. 2. All major S&P sectors are supporting the upward movement (see Market Inner Strength Index) 3. RSI is highly overbought on the daily timeframe and slightly overbought on the weekly timeframe. Although this doesn’t mean much in strong uptrends, we should still pay attention to it. 4. On the hourly chart, there is some unclear bracketing with an extending range. We have both a poor high and a poor low. The bulls clearly have the upper hand on all major timeframes, making the most likely scenario a continuation of the uptrend. Fundamentals are also on the buyers’ side: inflation is decreasing, and the first bank reports were quite positive. However, it is also possible that we’ll see more bracketing in the short term due to political uncertainty, which deprives the market of the conviction needed for prolonged movements. We can see signs of traders’ hesitation on the hourly chart: breakouts without follow-through and reluctance to carry positions over the weekend. Coupled with price overextension (remember the RSI), there are enough arguments to support the need for short-term consolidation and the collection of additional information before moving higher (if nothing changes fundamentally). Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
S&P Bulls Defy Expectations; New Historical HighLast week, the bulls did something remarkable. At the start of the week, there was a clear bearish reversal pattern forming on the daily chart. Despite being a believer in the bulls (given the strength of the weekly chart), I was still quite certain that sellers would at least be able to take down the weak low from the last week of June (SPX 5,448). However, instead of breaking through, the sellers made only a weak attempt on Monday. After a brief pause, the market rallied, breaking through all previous highs. It is hard to grasp such a change in sentiment, especially since there was nothing particularly surprising in the economic data or the FOMC announcements. Sometimes, it seems that the market itself is confused, and the best we can do is observe its behavior day by day and make quick adjustments to our strategy. There was absolutely no clear reason behind the sell-off on Friday the 28th (presidential debates? really???), but we had to trust price action and let it shape our strategy. Only now can we conclude that it was a “fake” weakness (actually, we already started suspecting it on Tuesday). More likely, it was temporary confusion in the market, caused by many contradicting political and economic signals. The current outlook is bullish. The market has set a new high, and the majority of sectors ended the week strong (see Market Inner Strength Index). The only possible warning is that the weekly RSI is approaching the overbought condition. The last time this happened (at the end of March), it triggered a weekly consolidation, but again, nothing is certain. P.S. this week is heavily packed with economic data releases. Also, banks report on Friday. Things might change really fast Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
SP:SPXLong
by hermes_trisme
S&P buyers dominate market; sellers wait asideLast week began with a powerful rally. After the bulls failed to push higher the next day, sellers seized the initiative and tried to drive the market lower. However, they didn't accomplish much, and the week ended with a potential reversal pattern on the hourly chart. If this pattern confirms today, we could see another bull run very early. Even if it doesn’t confirm, there is still substantial support just below. On the longer timeframes (weekly and monthly), buyers still have full control, with no warning signs. While the price is slightly overbought on the daily chart, this is not a significant concern in strong uptrends. Sector rotation appears healthy – despite the market being pressured by weakness in XLK, other sectors (e.g., XLF, XLV) appreciated. Important economic data will be released on Thursday and Friday. As long as there are no negative surprises, the market is expected to remain strong. The market outlook is a definite "long". New buyers can try to establish position upon the confirmation of the hourly reversal patters and upon the pullback into consolidation zone (if it happens). Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
Market Soars with Unyielding MomentumLast week was marked by complete bullish dominance. After positive inflation data was released on Wednesday, the market opened with a significant gap up. The next day, sellers made a sluggish attempt to fill this gap but never came close. To sum it up: 1. Prices are in an uptrend on weekly, monthly, and daily charts. 2. Last week closed strong with almost no seller pressure. 3. There is an unfilled gap from Wednesday, the 12th. So far, this market is fully controlled by buyers. Notably, growth is driven mostly by tech stocks, reflecting a "risk-on" mode of investing. Some people are concerned about the narrow breadth, but it doesn't matter much whether growth is driven by many names or just a few large stocks. While narrow breadth can lead to increased volatility, the fact is that money is being poured into the market. As long as this continues, the market will remain strong. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
S&P Tug of War Continues as Market Seeks ClarityLast week marked some of the most unclear price action we've seen. Starting on Tuesday, sellers gradually took control from buyers, but most of the action occurred during extended hours (meaning on VERY low volume). On Friday, sellers finally acted during regular trading hours and attacked the market right from the open. However, it seems buyers were only waiting for this, as the price suddenly pivoted, and the day ended with a spectacular bull run. At this moment, the market is sending very confusing signals, and the best strategy for a swing trader is to simply stay away for some time. Here's a formal summary of the current situation: 1. Long-term Bullish . The price is in an uptrend on both weekly and monthly timeframes. May closed above April’s high 2. Short-term Bearish . Weekly consolidation is in progress, and despite the bull show-off on Friday, the market is still consolidating on the weekly timeframe. Moreover, the week closed with a bearish "hanging man" candle. 3. Respect Friday’s Bull Run . It was unusually strong for bearish context and could easily develop into something significant. To develop a convincing thesis, we need to see some clarity on the daily chart. Either bears will confirm a daily lower high, signaling the continuation of the weekly consolidation, or bulls will set a daily higher low, signaling the continuation of the uptrend. Until this happens, we can expect more unexpected moves in both directions without much follow-through. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme