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S&P buyers dominate market; sellers wait asideLast week began with a powerful rally. After the bulls failed to push higher the next day, sellers seized the initiative and tried to drive the market lower. However, they didn't accomplish much, and the week ended with a potential reversal pattern on the hourly chart. If this pattern confirms today, we could see another bull run very early. Even if it doesn’t confirm, there is still substantial support just below. On the longer timeframes (weekly and monthly), buyers still have full control, with no warning signs. While the price is slightly overbought on the daily chart, this is not a significant concern in strong uptrends. Sector rotation appears healthy – despite the market being pressured by weakness in XLK, other sectors (e.g., XLF, XLV) appreciated. Important economic data will be released on Thursday and Friday. As long as there are no negative surprises, the market is expected to remain strong. The market outlook is a definite "long". New buyers can try to establish position upon the confirmation of the hourly reversal patters and upon the pullback into consolidation zone (if it happens). Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
Market Soars with Unyielding MomentumLast week was marked by complete bullish dominance. After positive inflation data was released on Wednesday, the market opened with a significant gap up. The next day, sellers made a sluggish attempt to fill this gap but never came close. To sum it up: 1. Prices are in an uptrend on weekly, monthly, and daily charts. 2. Last week closed strong with almost no seller pressure. 3. There is an unfilled gap from Wednesday, the 12th. So far, this market is fully controlled by buyers. Notably, growth is driven mostly by tech stocks, reflecting a "risk-on" mode of investing. Some people are concerned about the narrow breadth, but it doesn't matter much whether growth is driven by many names or just a few large stocks. While narrow breadth can lead to increased volatility, the fact is that money is being poured into the market. As long as this continues, the market will remain strong. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
S&P Tug of War Continues as Market Seeks ClarityLast week marked some of the most unclear price action we've seen. Starting on Tuesday, sellers gradually took control from buyers, but most of the action occurred during extended hours (meaning on VERY low volume). On Friday, sellers finally acted during regular trading hours and attacked the market right from the open. However, it seems buyers were only waiting for this, as the price suddenly pivoted, and the day ended with a spectacular bull run. At this moment, the market is sending very confusing signals, and the best strategy for a swing trader is to simply stay away for some time. Here's a formal summary of the current situation: 1. Long-term Bullish . The price is in an uptrend on both weekly and monthly timeframes. May closed above April’s high 2. Short-term Bearish . Weekly consolidation is in progress, and despite the bull show-off on Friday, the market is still consolidating on the weekly timeframe. Moreover, the week closed with a bearish "hanging man" candle. 3. Respect Friday’s Bull Run . It was unusually strong for bearish context and could easily develop into something significant. To develop a convincing thesis, we need to see some clarity on the daily chart. Either bears will confirm a daily lower high, signaling the continuation of the weekly consolidation, or bulls will set a daily higher low, signaling the continuation of the uptrend. Until this happens, we can expect more unexpected moves in both directions without much follow-through. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
S&P bulls confirm their control; market reaches new highLast week, the Bulls' performance surprised many and some were badly hurt by Wednesday's rally. Followers of this channel, however, hopefully avoided this trap by staying aware that a bullish run was possible given the market's mixed signals. Now, the Bulls have confirmed their control by establishing both a higher low and a new high on the weekly chart. Notably, they managed to maintain this new high into the week’s close. At this point, my bias is 90% bullish. The only concern is the divergence between price action and market internals. While SPX set a new high, there were less stocks reaching new monthly high than lows. Although this isn’t a strong indicator, it’s something to keep in mind if suddenly things start to shift. But until we see clear signs of seller strength, we should remain aligned with the buyers. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
S&P stalls in indecision; still bullishLast week was marked with indecision. Market was moving in a narrow range while Buyers were waiting for FOMC ad NVDIA’s earnings. After receiving positive confirmation (FOMC neutral, earnings good) market tried to go higher but found no support from large players. Sellers took advantage of the weakness and dropped price, clearing many weak longs established in the previous 5 days. It was a strong move but for some reason sellers lacked conviction to go lower. Price pivoted after filling the gap from Wednesday 15th and went back into the balance zone ( 527.5-531.5 ). We should expect more pushes and pulls in the short term while market is fishing for new information. To confirm their control buyers must clear last week high ( 533 ) and build value above it. Bears’ objective is to break last week low ( 525 ). Until it happens the most likely scenario is bracketing within last week range. It is important to note that while short term direction is unclear, we are still in weekly uptrend. So bears must work twice hard to prove their strength Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
1
S&P bulls are unstoppable; market reaches new highMarket closed strongly last week after reaching a new historical high. There was some sluggish consolidation on Thursday-Friday but near end of Friday trading hours, bulls put end to it by setting hourly higher low. Friday closed within Thursday’s range after a failed break-out, which is a very bullish signal. Currently, we have full alignment on all major timeframe: price is in uptrend on weekly, daily and hourly timeframes. There are absolutely no warning signs that would speak for bears. Both short- and long-term outlooks are bullish. If you're already in a long position, you're fortunate and can rest easy. If you're considering entering the market, you can either wait for another pullback or enter now with a reasonable stop-loss. FOMC minutes are coming out on Wednesday, which could cause some unexpected volatility. However, if there are no major surprises, the bullish thesis remains unchanged. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
4
S&P rally continues; will we see new high?After confirmation of control in the first days of May, bulls enjoyed their dominance. The market opened with a gap up on Monday, rallied throughout the entire week, and closed very strongly within the top value area. There was some profit-taking on Monday, but sellers were not able to push the price even below the previous day's high. At this stage, there are no major warning signs for the buyers. On the other hand, there are many signs that confirm their strength: 1. Price is in a daily uptrend, aligned with higher level context (weekly/monthly uptrend). 2. Two unfilled gaps (Friday the 3rd and Monday the 6th). 3. Strong close of the week within the top value area (price has retraced >80% of April’s bearish wave). The only technical weakness on the chart is the monthly consolidation. Bears might try to defend April’s high ( 524 ), but unless they receive support from economic reports coming this week, their position looks very vulnerable. An important level for the bulls is 515 , where the price pivoted on Wednesday after a pre-market sell-off. Important economic data will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, which could cause volatility in both directions. But as long as there are no major negative surprises, pullbacks are buying opportunities Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
S&P Bulls prove their controlThe strong close last week indicates a shift in control to the buyers. They managed to close above the previous week’s high, establishing a weekly higher low and confirming the daily uptrend. Currently, the bulls have control across all key timeframes: the price is trending upward on the hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The only challenge they face is on the monthly timeframe, where bears have initiated consolidation; however, this is not a critical issue. It's plausible that the bulls might either retrace the entire bearish wave or, more likely, close May as an inside bar, setting a price equilibrium that could persist throughout the summer. Given this scenario, the current position might not be ideal for a long entry since we are in the middle of April’s range. If you're considering buying, it would be wiser to wait for a pullback that could provide a more favorable opportunity. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
S&P bulls attempt to regain control but they are not there yetLast week, using oversold bounce, buyers attempted to regain control over the price. Their effort was somewhat successful, as they managed to establish both a higher low and a higher high on the daily chart. However, they failed to set a weekly low, which was a challenging task given the magnitude of the previous week's range. This indicates that bears still maintain control over the weekly (and monthly) timeframes, suggesting that we should expect to see more selling pressure in the short term. The immediate objective for bulls is to test the price above last week's high ( 509.9 ) and to close the month within March's range. They must also protect the last higher low ( 497.5 ) or the last weekly low ( 495.5 ), or else their progress will be undone. The short term outlook is mildly bearish. Watch out for volatility on Wednesday as important economic data is released and FED announces decision over interest rate Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYShort
by hermes_trisme
S&P Bears are strong but Bulls still have a chanceLast week, sellers firmly controlled the market. Buyers attempted to defend March's low, but the bears left them no chance. Prices consistently declined for six consecutive days, with the futures chart ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) appearing even more bearish. We are now approaching a critical juncture, which presents a significant opportunity for buyers to take a stand. The daily RSI is nearing an oversold condition, and simultaneously, the price is approaching the SMA100 alongside a horizontal support level ( 490 ) from the February consolidation. There is no absolute certainty that buyers will seize this opportunity, but we should closely monitor the price action next week. Although sellers have demonstrated their strength, we are still in a weekly uptrend, and trends do not end easily unless there is a radical shift in sentiment. Despite negative news in recent weeks, nothing has emerged as critically detrimental yet. However, this could change, so we must regularly reassess the situation as new information becomes available. The short-term outlook remains bearish, but this could change depending on how the price reacts to these support levels. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYShort
by hermes_trisme
S&P weekly consolidation in progressAt the end of last week, sellers confirmed weekly consolidation by closing below the previous week's low. From now on, bears have control over the price on the weekly timeframe. We should monitor the progression of weekly lows and highs to see when things start to shift, but until then, we should trust the sellers. It is also notable that if we look at the futures chart ( CME_MINI:ES1! ), we can see that buyers were unable to close above the previous day's high for the last 10 trading days. If buyers want to regain control, this will be their first objective. Please note that the price is currently positioned near the previous month's low, which can provide an intermediate support level. If you’re planning to short the market, it is better to wait for a pullback or for a breakout with retest. Finally, if weekly consolidation will convert into monthly consolidation it will be a major win for bears. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYShort
by hermes_trisme
SPY LONG: scout for hourly higher lowBulls defended the weekly low and made a convincing breakout yesterday. This is a powerful statement, although buyers have not yet proven their control. To do that, they must first establish a weekly higher low, which is likely to happen next week (of course, we need to monitor how things develop). This presents a great opportunity for a long play, but buyers should wait for a pullback and scout for an hourly higher low. Ideally, this should occur near the previous Volume Area High (VAH). An example of the trade is shown on the chart. You can read full analysis of the market below Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
1
S&P bears attack, bulls still holdLast week was marked by the aggressiveness of sellers and the resilience of buyers. On Monday Buyers were ideally positioned for another break out but they didn’t have enough steam to accomplish it. Sellers, long awaiting their opportunity, pushed the price down, breaking the weekly support. However, they couldn’t develop this into something more significant, as the bulls returned with a firm "no". The rest of the week continued in the same tug-of-war fashion. The most confusing days were Thursday and Friday. Thursday started very bullish but ended with a dramatic bearish turn. Friday, expected to be bearish, unfolded under the bulls' control. This was a story. Now, let’s now review all the signals more formally: Bearish Signals • Confirmed downtrend on the daily chart, indicated by a lower high and lower low. • Weekly consolidation has begun. Bullish Signals • The week closed right at the previous week's low after price shaped hourly higher low • Friday’s value zone is within the value zone of the previous four days. The context remains very bullish – price is in a strong weekly uptrend, last month closed very strong. Overall, it is a very ambiguous case with neither side having a clear advantage. Buyers are exhausted, yet not willing to capitulate. Bears are attempting to play their game but lack sufficient strength. The short-term outlook is neutral. From this position market can go in any direction. We need additional signs of one side gaining an upper hand. Until then, it is not advisable to place big bets on either side. Wednesday is a very important day, with both the release of inflation data and the FOMC meeting Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
2
S&P still very strong; rally goes onLast week began with bearish consolidation, which was short-lived. The bulls quickly regained control, established a daily higher low, and broke through the previous week's resistance at 524.1 . Although the breakout was not very strong, it was still meaningful. The March close was very strong, posting a +3% gain, and both weekly and daily charts are indicating an uptrend. All major sectors appear strong. The bulls have full control, and the rally is likely to continue. This week is heavily loaded with economic data releases, which might cause some volatility. However, unless there are major surprises, it should not affect our main thesis. Important level to watch is 518.4 . As long as it holds, buyers are in control Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
S&P rally continuesAt the start of last week, things didn’t look great for the bulls. There were several signs of weakness that could have easily led to a daily trend reversal. However, that didn’t materialize. Firstly, on Monday, buyers were able to set a daily higher low. Then, on Wednesday, they positioned the price very close to the previous two weeks' high. Finally, with the help of the FOMC, they broke through the resistance, set a new historical high, and held it into the week's closure. All these factors together confirm the strength of the bulls and position them well for rally continuation. AMEX:SPY outlook for the next week is bullish. Pullbacks should be considered as buying opportunities. Short trades should be avoided unless you are a scalper. Stay alert of economic data releases on Thursday (GDP) and Friday (Personal Income/Spendings and FED) that could cause some volatility. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
S&P: Bearish signals mount but buyers still have controlLast week began with a display of strong conviction from buyers, propelling price upwards towards the previous high (516.5). They managed to surpass it by a small margin, establishing a new historical high at 517.1. Unfortunately, bulls were unable to sustain momentum and build a new value zone, allowing bears to regain control and push price back towards the previous low. All these developments signal daily uptrend exhaustion. Trend is close to reversal, but it is not there yet. Sellers must prove their strength by taking down the last week low (506,9). Until then it is still bulls market and buyers have control. The outlook for the next week is neutral. Long term Buyers should refrain from increasing position and consider (partial) profit taking. Sellers can try shorting the market but remember that odds are still slightly in favor of the opposite side. Wednesday (20th) is an important day for the market as FED will announce interest rate decision. P.S. for some reason weekly high on the daily chart doesn’t match weekly high on the weekly chart. I have reported this issue to TV support Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
S&P still bullish but first warning signs The last week kicked off with bears challenging the previous week's low (505), coming close to success. Bulls stepped in, mounting a strong defense and steering prices back to a historical high. It might have been a convincing victory if only they could have sustained it until Friday's closure, but that didn't materialize. Friday concluded on a bearish note, closing even below the previous week's end (512,85). This signal alone isn't enough to confirm a trend reversal thesis but from now we should now keep a closer eye out for any emerging bearish signs. The outlook for the next week is mildly bullish. Long term Buyers should refrain from increasing position and maybe consider (partial) profit taking. Day traders can explore opportunities on both sides within the range of the previous week with some preference to LONGs Stay alert for potential volatility on Tuesday as PMI data is scheduled for release. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
S&P Sector rotationPut together information on what is happening in major S&P sectors Majority of sectors are strong on the daily chart. There are some short-term problems on lower timeframe but they can be overcome. This is good for buyers as it shows that money is not leaving the market but moving from one sector to another. A lot will depend on tech bulls. XLK must clear 212 resistance to help market move higher. You can find my market overview here AMEX:XLK AMEX:XLV AMEX:XLF AMEX:XLY AMEX:XLC AMEX:XLI AMEX:XLP AMEX:XLE
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
S&P makes new high, up to the skyBulls have finished last week with a spectacular rally. It was quite clear that they were taking some rest before a run but even I was surprised by their Friday achievements (see ) The outlook for this week is easily defined: BULLS, BULLS, BULLS. The daily chart looks great (daily uptrend, new high), there is absolutely no warning signals on lower timeframe (last day is a classical bullish trend day), no visible resistance above. Until it changes there is no place for short trades (unless you're a scalper) and pullbacks are for buying. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advices, just sharing my thoughts
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
3
Market bulls take restAfter a spectacular rally last week market bulls are taking a pause. Last two days look quite bearish on the daily chart but if we look at lower timeframes we won't see any signs of strong selling. Price is drifting down very slowly as a result of profit taking and low initiative from buyers. The high level context is still very bullish: we're in an uptrend, market made new high, retracement <30%, there is an unfilled gap from last week. There will be some volatility as new economic data released, but at this moment my bias is 100% bullish Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advices, just sharing my thoughts
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
1
Market Bulls rockYesterday, bulls regained full control over broad market, not just managing to set daily higher low but doing it spectacularly. With no historical resistance above it is impossible to say when this rally will end. Any short trade should be discouraged until there are some clear signs of reversal. Bulls, who missed the move, can look for 15m/1h consolidations for entrance opportunities. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advices, just sharing my thoughts
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
Wilshire 5000 - approaching a decision point.The Wilshire 5000 is basically the broad market literally every publicly company in the America and also some foreign corporations are incorporated in this index We are coming to a decision area, not right now. But over the course of the next few months and years. We could see a breakout up and a continuation of the ever uptrend or a breakdown, and change in longterm trend Since these numbers are denominated in ever worthless dollars betting up with periods of panic has forever been the right call. Place your bets accordingly.
FRED:WILL5000PR
by BallaJi