... for a .71/contract debit. Small bet that treasury sell-off is overdone here and/or there will be some risk-off running into mid-term elections. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 51% Max Profit: 1.29/contract Max Loss: .71/contract Break Even: 112.71 (no downside risk) Notes: Will begin to look at taking the entire setup off as a unit at 25% max. You can...
A slight variation on a Super Bull (short put vertical financing a long put vertical; bullish assumption). Metrics: POP%: 71% Max Profit: 1.12/contract Max Loss/BPE: 1.88/contract Break Even: 25.88 Notes: There are a couple of different ways to work this intratrade: (a) take the long put vert off in profit, leave the short put vert to ride; (b) the inverse of...
Taking advantage of a little IV in the Russell with a Put BWB. Trade Setup: -1 IWM Mar 17 134/136/136/137 Put Butterfly @ 0.18 DTE: 31 Max Win: $118 Max Loss: $82 Breakeven: $134.82 Trade Management: I will look to take 50% off this trade if we come down to $136.00 in the upcoming cycle, so around $59. If the market decides to crash, I am comfortable...
Getting my # of occurrences in a small account. SPY has been on a tear lately and want to capture a bit of the upside, without any risk to the downside. Trade Setup : -1 SPY Mar 17 236/237/237/239 Call Butterfly @ 0.19 DTE: 29 Max Win: $119 Max Loss: $81 Breakeven: $238.19 Trade Management: Best case scenario, SPY trades around 237 near March...
For various reasons I won't get into here, I don't do butterflies very often. This is a variation on a butterfly, however -- a "broken wing" butterfly. In this case, the play is made up of a 2-wide long call vert (the 11.5 plus one of the 13.5's) and a 1-wide short call vert (one the 13.5's plus the 14.5). It's considered "broken" because flies are ordinarily...