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Brrr

Growth Cycle Analysis of USD Supply.This is not entirely about a trade, moreso a thought experiment of the future to come. After the great 2020 coof liquidity crisis a brief and severe expansion of the monetary supply occurred in order to bail out the entire economy. This seems to be followed by an equivalent expansion rate mirrored by the 1971 expansion. The marked difference this time is that the interest rate is 0. To reign this in would require negative rates, or capital controls, AND a major collapse (which I do not think will be permitted).
FRED:M2SLLong
by FlyTheElephant
M2 adjusted MSFT + AAPL + TSLATesla looks like it's forming an end-of-distribution pattern while Microsoft and Apple have already began to make a small move down. But Tesla was the most volatile during this time. Wouldn't that mean it could form an ascending triangle and breakout? Yes, but this is the unlikely scenario, unless there are bullish fundamentals like an inflation increase, and the rest of the broad market, domestic and foreign, doing well. None of these are in a place to supply bullish pressure to the market, and It's looking a bit shady right now. Inflation has been relatively sideways lately which means medium-term risk-off. 500% gains are looking pretty delicious now. Also, at the very least, Tesla plant shutdowns due to restrictions or shortages aren't good news, and that hasn't exactly priced itself in, in any meaningful way. Cheers!
NASDAQ:AAPL
by fringe_chartist
The market is talking. Can YOU hear it?Pareto's law says that roughly the top 20% of the market constituents should roughly represent 80% roughly of the overall market cap, and vice versa: the bottom 80% of constituents will represent 20% of the overall market cap. When price seems irrational, and higher cap stocks start to represent more of the market than previous decades, and thus are given a higher weight in the major indices, it can be very useful to look at a large portion of the bottom 80% to get a more rational prospect of market value. Russell 2000 represents many small and mid cap stocks, which are mostly given low weights in large portfolios and indices, compared to larger cap stocks such as TSLA or the FAANG stocks. We get an interesting peek at the overall market value if we look at these companies in the median of the market, in addition to accounting for money supply expansion. We can see that if we account for inflation, the relativity of the money supply in relation to the Russell 2000 has always topped out at about where it is now, in the past 20 years. The price seems to be disconnected from value at the moment, off by a factor of 2 or 3. For the larger caps that are not included in this index, this overpriced factor is probably larger, maybe 5 or 10, given the current conditions of an irrationally large-cap dominated market. Let me know what you think. Do you think the dip of 1200 in 2020 was a valid retest? Or was it just forced participation, coercion by the FED? Do you think that, given such coercion, we're in for a further lower retest when said coercion becomes less effective? Cheers
TVC:RUTShort
by fringe_chartist
1
The raptureIt's always similar to someone falling from the 25th floor. Everything is fine for 24 floors. Ignored. You can hear flies, then noobs all get excited and push each other to bet he will die after he hit the ground. Actually not even, they hesitate, they are afraid, they want to be real sure, so they wait till he is declared dead at the hospital and rush to bet he will die, hey never know maybe he ressusitates magically and then dies again? 10/10 bet. Source for the central bank assets (check figure 6 you will like it): www.yardeni.com Central banks throw money around, and the indices go up weeks later. Investors sell their Yen, and the indices go up weeks later. So dumb. Daddy, what were you doing when there was free money being thrown around? Your dad is a loser son. If it's too good to be true, you live in idiocracy, this is why it's too good to be true, we live in idiotland. No worries about getting out fast when it collapses, most "investors" are too stupid to run for the exits lmao, they will be aware of the collapse years or maybe even decades later. No need to worry about the wheelchair "competition". Screw it, Yen selloff collapsing, it's over good luck bagholders I am selling full position and buying more juicy s&ps.
TVC:GOLD
by MrRenev
1
Silver next week? _/(O_O)\_So ya'll might see a pattern of me posting silver ideas for a while, and that's because I have dropped indexes and stocks for while due to my account size and the stupidity of retail traders driving stocks way too high and selling too quickly. But one thing they won't do is commodities because they probably don't even know what that means. So, my only option for rationally trading and growing my account, I will be trading SLV options, which provide me with the amount of risk I want and liquidity. I was trading USO options but there is literally no volume and a disgusting .05 spread on a .50 option value. And also, trading the same thing, I can analyze the chart as much as I want, so I will definitely be trading the SLV options until my account is large enough and the market stops being really stupid. But anyways my last intraday prediction sorta worked, but not to the extent I was expecting. That's ok. But this one is a pretty good weekly prediction. And as I always say, if you're here to copy trades or anything like that, you're lost. I post these just for other people to get a better insight and for people to maybe critique my technical analysis and better their own.
SLong
by SJ_trader
SPY break $$$$If we gap up tomorrow the market will moon, like as you see the last break. Forget Covid, because the market would have reacted to that on Monday and there would have to be a huge surge in cases for a reaction, which is unlikely. Also, this is very, very important because there are two consolidations worth breaking and a pivot that was resistance but is now acting as support. The reason the market will continue upwards is because people on wall street will lose their jobs if that happens, so they will do anything in their power to keep the market up.
AMEX:SPYLong
by SJ_trader
1
3 big drops since BTCUSD ATH and the next move is going to ...Given that: For the time being, Bitcoin (BTC) is well correlated with traditional markets. What this chart shows me: Bitcornz on the Weekly TF. 3 major drops since ATH. All the bullish rallies and comebacks to date have yet to really break free of the downtrend, however it's above it longer now the previous times. it's like watching an asset dance on a knife edge for as long as it can before it makes the next move either way. How The Biggest Whale Affects Everything: As long as the Fed keeps buying the FAANG bonds and basically p0wning the market / transforming the USA into more like the USSA .. central Kontrol over everything. ... well as long as the charade lasts, trads keep up the PAMP and bitty may ride along, for now, anyway. The Great Comparison: However if you look at the markets compared to right before the Great Depression ... Well ... it basically looked a lot like this. See DJI for example. Highly overvalued stocks being propped up by artificial cash infusions in to the markets. and there was a signal dump and recovery and then shortly after there was the big drop. It looks an awful lot like that now, too. of course systems are "stronger" now but still ... the system is also so much bigger .. the damage from any crash now or in an even larger, more centrally controlled future, will be proportionally bigger as well, in all likelihood. WDUT?
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by stepstones