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EURUSD - If i had no ongoing trade..Currently, I am still holding EURUSD short. Click the chart below to understand my trading plan at the time Nothing much I could do right now other than wait until my specified exit indicator tells me its time to close my entire position. Now, lets say I don't have any EURUSD position right now, here's probably the plan I would make. Technical Analysis suggests to me that EURUSD is still in a bearish trend (honestly you could just load up the daily chart and eyeball it!) and I will be looking for a bullish retracement to get me a good price to short EURUSD. I do understand if some traders are now starting to look for a LONG setup for EURUSD, at least intraday. Yesterday price moved downwards and hit last week's 20-week AWR downside projection when that happens price tend to either move sideways or retraces. Moreover there is a big option expire at the NY Cut at 1.0950. We all know option expiries sometimes acts like a price magnet. It would take exactly the 20-day ADR upside projection for the price to reach there before the NY cut. I am open for an intraday scalp to the upside with minimal risk but I am still bearish bias overall. I am anticipating the price would reach 1.0950 but i will be looking to short from there. however, if there is a bearish signal under the option expiry, then I will be taking that short trade.
by sufiansaid
GBPCHF planAnalisa Teknikal masih mencadangkan saya untuk Bearish kesemua GBP pairs. Risiko besar bias ini adalah perkembangan terkini Brexit & suasana politik di United Kingdom. Berdasarkan data-data yang lepas, market seolah-olah "react" jika news tersebut berupakan news yang tidak baik bagi No Deal Brexit ataupun apa sahaja yang kena mengena dengan Boris Johnson. My technical analysis suggest that I should be bearish the Pound Sterling. The risk for this bias is any development of Brexit that usually led to Sterling to be bid. i.e No Deal Brexit, any bad things happen to Boris Johnson Price action yesterday was exactly what I wanted. Since I am bearish GBPCHF, i was looking for a bull trap at the levels that I have marked today on the chart. P2 bearish had been activated, I am still waiting for a bearish trigger signal and/or another test on the upside, preferably breaking yesterday's high. The daily range yesterday exceeded the 20-day ADR upside projection hence I am anticipating a more subdued price action today. Just anticipation. I love volatility, I wish there is one every day.
Short
by sufiansaid
Navigating through the RBA Interest Rate Decision : AUDUSDThe market is pricing in for the RBA to cut their interest rate from 1.00% to 0.75%. Personally, I always stay on the sidelines during interest rate risk events. The reason is how unpredictable the market reaction going to be. I believe that institutions use risk events to get liquidity via stop hunts/ price manipulation hence the spike direction has no correlation (at most case) with the rate decision. "Interest Cut = bearish for the currency" is the basic thing being taught to every trader. Tho it has some degree of truth in it but it is not that easy, traders should put this in their head: Stop Hunters loves big news events. For example, on July 2nd, 2019. RBA decided to cut their rates and the intraday direction of that day after the interest rate decision was UP. The reaction news spike did go down tho. Whoever went short (via trading the news) probably got some pips (if they get filled at the price they wanted, which is very rare!) but high chance get stopped out because traders logic suggests AUDUSD should go down because "Interest Cut = bearish for the currency" So it is not that simple. Another example, on June 4th, 2019, RBA cut their rates and interestingly the reactionary spike was not down but up and then the price closed below the 12.30pm (Singapore time) candle open. The intraday trend later that day was up. "Interest Cut = bearish for the currency"? This is an example last May when the RBA decided to keep their interest rate. This time the reactionary candle moved exactly the traders logic of "Interest Cut = bearish for the currency". However, that's the only bullish move AUDUSD made that day, in fact AUDUSD went down days after that. All these reactionary candles are traces of stop hunts happening during big news event, and RBA cash rate decision is prone to this as well. I will not trade before and during the risk event, the soonest I would trade this is 30 minutes after the decision rate and/or after the RBA governor's speech (if there's any) Technically, I am still bearish AUDUSD. Whatever decision RBA makes on Tuesday, I believe its almost fully priced in. I am anticipating some random news spike on Tuesday however and if that spike tapping in the levels at the upside, then that would be awesome because I could short AUDUSD at a better price. That's probably the only way I would "trade" the news spike.
Short
by sufiansaid
Navigating the Market : NZDGD 27/9This pair went through a rare two-day whipsaw-ish price expansion of 90+ pips each day. That is almost twice the 20-day ADR for this pair. Due to this I am anticipating a rather subdued price action today with 35-55 pips range on top of today is Friday and there are no risk events for New Zealand and Singapore. I do see scalping opportunities (in 15 min or 5 min chart) for a Long trade if there is a stop hunt tapping under the London low and short trade if there is a stop hunt tapping at the NY-only session high. I am not a scalper so don't listen to me. However, I will short this pair if the latter happens. Due to negative swaps, I won't be holding this trade overnight, I'll take what I get and find a solution to continue the trade next week.
Short
by sufiansaid
Navigating the Market : EURCAD 27/9I am intraday bearish bias for EURCAD. I have fundamental rationale to be bearish on the Euros but I don't for Canadian as of now. The daily range yesterday was 61 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 63 pips. I consider that as a hit. However, there is still more "space" to fill for this pair hence I am targeting the 20-week AWR downside projection. I look for a tiny correction to the upside before considering to short EURCAD There are no risk events for Euro and Canada
Short
by sufiansaid
Navigating the Bias Shift : GBPJPY 27/9I am intraday bearish bias for Sterling today (both technical and fundamental rationale). I have marked levels that, if reached, will wait for a bearish signal. Price could go further down without tapping in these levels, which I would not chase. Let the price comes to me. The daily range yesterday was small compared to the 120 pips 20-day ADR so I am expecting a price expansion today between 130-150 pips. There are no risk events for the U.K and Japan
Short
by sufiansaid
Navigating through Aramco B.S - I am still bullish BrentI am still bullish Brent for both technical and fundamental reasons. Fundamentally (and I am extremely oversimplifying this) am on the side who thinks 10-weeks restoration of the oil pipe/oil production is too ambitious and all a smoke screen. Technically, the daily chart still tells me we should be bias on the LONG side and P3 Bullish activation happened yesterday (Price broke below Monday low) I would warrant a long position now half the risk I usually put out and I would anticipate price would trade lower than yesterday's low around 61.500-60.500. If that happens, then my conviction to LONG Brent would increase and I would "bet" with the remaining risk I accommodate for this pair. To understand the P3 activation, please find the link attached below (Monday with Tue/Wed Relationship)
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by sufiansaid
reading the right side of the chart : GBPCHF 25 SeptYesterday's trading range was 70-72 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 102 pips. In a day when there was a risk event (political) and there was a stop hunt spike during the London session, it is indeed a bizarre day. After a "missed" day, I always anticipate a price expansion within 36 hours. I am still bullish on Sterling hence I am still waiting and looking for a low of the week anchor which I hope would form around these price levels 1.22700-1.22850. There is an ongoing risk for this plan which is Brexit Brexit Brexit. There is no risk event for Switzerland today.
by sufiansaid
Update AUDUSD This is referring to initial AUDUSD plan (below) RBA was less dovish than what the "market" expected. Technically, i was hoping the price would go up, which it did, and tap into chunks of buy orders. I am still bearish the Aussie in spite of that RBA statement. Even if his words had much more weight than just a spike reaction (in truth, it was an opportunity to load positions from the bank, the liquidity run), I THINK (an opinion, don't need your bark as if I am saying it like its fact) its priced in already. I could be wrong and I don't care. I will react what the chart is telling me. And the reaction would be a bearish signal at any point of the day, I will short AUDUSD since price have gone into the minimal point for me to short. (refer to the initial post) There is no risk event for Australia, HOWEVER, there is a rate decision from the RBNZ which could effect this pair via AUDNZD.
Short
by sufiansaid
Update : GBPJPY PlanI don't need to do hindsight analysis/review of this pair (any pair really). I can say this though.. that stop hunt during a risk event? "experts" in the media claims the spike was a headline reaction . The fact that Sterling was BID literally 5 minutes before the confirmation of the supreme court it was claimed by the media experts that it's due to "buy the rumour, sell the fact" I see in a different angle though. LIQUIDITY RUN. Buy Stops stacked just around Monday's high (obvious level hence banks use it against us/for them). The bank made a liquidity run/stop hunt. From that hunt, now the range have been formed, setting up traps for breakout traders or range traders. Technically I am still bullish on Sterling. I don't have a rationale based on sentiment/fundamental analysis apart from Sterling is almost all about Brexit nowadays so I gather from yesterday's supreme court decision, sterling is bid right now I guess? I wont allow it to confuse me because my SOP is clear, if there is no clear sentiment/fundamental analysis based bias, I just rely on what the charts telling me I am looking at the liquidity pool (marked in the chart) and if price goes there the low of the week formed, I will look to Long GBPJPY (and other GBP pairs)
Long
by sufiansaid
Navigating through Aramco's B.S : BrentI think the market was pricing in the narrative pushed by Aramco that Saudi would only lose not more than 80 barrels per day a few hours after the price spike. Now even Saudi officials stated that it would take more time than what Aramco pushed into the media. Some experts claim that Saudi will lose more than 80 barrels per day and there will be a supply crisis in the future. Speculators are net-long for Brent futures and in the spot market, institutional traders are putting a lot of split orders, testing the water for liquidity hence the price right now is in a tight range. I am long bias for BRENT and i am looking at another test on the liquidity pool I have identified.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by sufiansaid