CPINV.BR likely to struggle between 26 and 28TLDR: maintaining bearish bias unless reinstate above 28, expecting it to go lower first before it can go higher
EW interpretation:
On the monthly chart there were visually 3 waves up before the covid crash. Based on the purple fibs, one can also argue we have already seen a 5 waves top.
In both case, the (A) wave almost perfectly hit 0.618 retracement and severely damaged the immediate potential for a higher high. Despite the strong recovery of (B) wave, the downtrend continues likely until the (C) wave is complete.
A drop under 21.45 can confirm 3 of (C) is indeed in progress, while a pop above 28.80 will invalidate the immediate bearish set up.
Technicals:
Despite decent earning report and strong balance sheet, downward pressure remains.
The "rally" in the last few sessions from 22 to 25 looks more like a rebounce due to oversold condition, as volume profile suggests a stronger resistance between 26 and 28.
While the weekly technicals just peeked above the downward trendline as shown above, the monthly's remain firmly under it and the daily technicals are entering overbought zone.
These readings align with the primary EW assumption above, suggesting the rebounce might be stopped soon and the downtrend resumes.
Daily chart:
Monthly chart:
Also impacting sentiment:
- Turmoil in the EU Elderly Care industry
- Broad EU market downtrend
Good company nonetheless for the longer term.
EPRA EPS: 1.06(2021), 1.15(exp.2022)
Dividend: 0.87(2021), 0.94(exp.2022)
Brussels
EURGBP to correct lower.You would think the bombings in Brussels would send the euro plummeting. You would think the ECB reducing rates and more QE would send the euro plummeting. You would think the very idea of a brexit that threatens the EU concept would bring down the euro. You would think that political uncertainty in Germany and poor data would bring down the euro. This is my chart.
Arguments in favour of top:
1. 200 weekly MA resistance
2. Overbought CCI and technical.
3. Resistance at ~.79
I'd say risk of Brexit has already been factored into the price.
EURUSD Brussels Attack Caution - H4 bullish divergence RSIEURUSD Brussels Attack Caution
Just a short technical assessment:
I see maximum downside risk for the EURUSD-0.31% at around 1.1150, which is 0.38 fib support, upper ichimoku cloud and bottom of march uptrend channel despite a strong H4 bullish divergence in the RSI
On the upper end we could see a move to go through 1.13 levels and finally knock out 1.14.
Be cautious! This is a grandchess day. Whenever this happens, the major players on this planet make their moves!
Don't trust the media!
Cheers,
SinatraFX