BTCUSD wow inflection point? guessing 50k most likely.The BTC chart is now at an important inflection point at the 42k level. Only a short while ago this was viewed as the most important support which then broke down opening a descent to ~~ 30k where we bounced and found new highs! So it's important to consider both the bull and bear case from here, wait for a clear direction to form, and trade in the direction of the case it has chosen.
The bull cases:
We are sitting on a longer term uptrend line (thick black) and expect to bounce from here. In scenario (A) we could bounce to around 51k, a previous relative high. At that point, we couuld go sideways, up or down -- but the interesting move here would be upward. In that case, we would go back towards previous highs around 65k, and possibly end up forming an ascending triangle. In this case, I'd expect to push new all time highs later in 2022, probably no earlier than August. There is some volume support for this (declining over the formation of the triangle).
The bear cases:
In this scenario, the recent formation is seen as a double top (apr and nov 2021 highs) with a more recent head and shoulders formation with neckline around this 42k level we are at currently. This projects (65k-42k) a further drop of nearly 23k, putting btc around 20k. If this were to unfold, I would expect it to come very soon, probably by April 2022, consistent with the recent downtrend line. This would also penetrate the 30k previous low and make this chart look like a giant 'M'.
Slight upside bias?
The problem with the bear case scenario is that they are so bad looking that we start to flirt with BTC getting under 10k very quickly based on chart projections from the patterns here. It is of course possible - tether could be a huge scam or many of the other issues could occur I previously identified in the 'black swan catalysts'), but seems to be much less likely. One thing is for sure though: a direction is likely to be determined soon, probably by the end of the month.
My personal outcome probability guesses:
40% chance we take path 'A', to 50-51k
30% chance we take path 'B' to 30k
20% chance we take path 'C' to 65k+
10% chance we take path 'B' lower to 10-15k
So overall I'm at maybe 60% upside, 40% downside. My positions are small BTC, ETH, LTC positions, and a large call position in BTBT. Either way, it will be exciting to see how things develop in the coming weeks and months!
BTBT
BTBT Just an idea of things I created this Picture in my Technical Ananlysis class I did for friends. I created the Flat Bottom run up tool for a good support trend line up and exit. I love how this tool gives perfect exits as you see. I figured there would be no volume at that level and was due for a correction so I created a Triangle Drop pattern for the retrace. This gives me a breakout resistance trend line down and a support drop bounce in the lower part of the triangle. I added a channel curve to trajectorize my movement. I created the Double Top Sentiment incase there was no Vol for the Head N Shoulders within the channel to initialte. Two possibiliies but always prepared. Hope you like the art
BTBT Ideas. 03/09/2021 forgot to share with you guys. will start posting more on here and will give ideas on what i think could happen and will tell you my averages etc. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. This was a decent play i made for some profits on btbt. i got in early for a long on my cfd account and made some bread!
DOGE Days of Summer 786 On WatchDOGE ...like many altcoins has gotten beaten up for weeks but over the weekend (unless you're living under a rock), crypto is having a bit of a renaissance, DOGE included. So we took a closer look at some basic levels following a Fib retracement plot and wouldn't you know it, some interesting levels have emerged. Namely the 786 fib has clearly been a sticky area (around $0.27-$0.29). Previously, it was an area of support following the monster breakout earlier this year but now appears to be an area of resistance. Since breaking below the 786 fib, DOGE has now tested this area to the upside twice and, so far, has gotten denied twice. But considering the excitement in crypto and bitcoin stocks chatter over the weekend, it could be something to pay attention to should the bullish sentiment remain in place heading into the week. Keep in mind, you've still got rumors floating about Amazon and it's supposed crypto link:
"Some penny stocks are on fire to start the week. That’s partially thanks to an upbeat sentiment in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Dogecoin right now. This past weekend, rumors emerged expressing Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ) would start accepting Bitcoin by the end of the year...Further rumors discussed that the company would develop its own currency by next year. According to an anonymous source talking to City A.M., 'This isn’t just going through the motions to set up cryptocurrency payment solutions at some point in the future—this is a full-on, well-discussed, integral part of the future mechanism of how Amazon will work.'...Rumors are still just that; rumors. But these were enough to give a hefty spike in Bitcoin, Dogecoin, Ethereum & other cryptocurrency prices. With that has come a slew of momentum into both tech and cryptocurrency penny stocks today...Discussed with Cinedigm Corporation ( NASDAQ:CIDM ), Bit Digital Inc. ( NASDAQ:BTBT ), Hut 8 Mining ( NASDAQ:HUT ), Exela Technolgies Inc. ( NASDAQ:XELA ), Vinco Ventures ( NASDAQ:BBIG )
Quote Source & Read More: Best Penny Stocks To Buy On Bitcoin, Dogecoin Price Action? 5 To Watch
BTBTBit Digital Inc (NASDAQ:BTBT) is developing a bull flag just under its EMA200 and the breakout should be a nice one if it can hold up. Keep an eye on BTBT as it is starting to tick up. The stock is in a short-term bull market and should continue to go up as both 13 day and 20 day exp moving averages are heading up. At this stage it is definitely a wait and see if the resistance will be easily taken out by the bulls.
BTBT In Familiar Territory But It's Up To Bitcoin NextBTBT hasn't had the best first half of the year and for most of the second and 3rd quarters, the stock was slowly bleeding. But thanks to that 100MW collab announced a few weeks ago, AND thanks to bitcoin getting its act together, things changed. Now BTBT is back at an interesting level I found after plotting the retracement for Q2 and Q3 so far. The 382 fib line was a previous area of higher traffic. It was resistance, then support, and now resistance if you look at the last few candles (for now). Considering the action in crypto, however, this could be an important level to pay attention to while also monitoring the daily trading volume.
"A rebound in cryptocurrency, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, has related companies in the spotlight this week. Bit Digital is among the names of former penny stocks to watch. The company was one we first discussed late in July. At the time, Bit Digital’s news of a planned Bitcoin mining expansion with Digihost acted as the initial catalyst. The two will operate a 100 MW Bitcoin mining system for an initial 2-year term...Since then, a mix of speculation and crypto market momentum has helped carry BTBT stock much higher. In fact, since our July 26th update, shares have climbed from under $5 to over $12 this week. Traders also seem to be recirculating that last update, fixated on comments from CEO Bryan Bullett:
As previously announced, we anticipate significant purchase activity in the coming months, due to spot market dislocation in China and our unique access to that market. This agreement with Digihost secures a key component of activating this opportunity, and is expected to enable rapid deployment of newly purchased miners.
One of the things to keep in mind is that no matter how strong the momentum for Bitcoin stocks, the underlying trend in the cryptocurrency’s price tends to direct the market. We’ve seen big breakouts and quick breakdowns thanks to crypto volatility. So make sure to have that in the back of your head if BTBT stock is on your list right now."
Quote Source & Read More: 4 Top Reddit Stocks To Watch As Robinhood (HOOD) Stock Breaks $80
RIOT - Bullish flag pattern on 4 hrBullish flag pattern on 4 hr chart. With BTC and ETH up 1 -2 % over the weekend, look for Crypto stocks to get a little pump on monday. Open interest for Aug 20 expiry - 3100 $35 Aug 20 calls, 4600 $40 calls. MARA MSTR BTBT are other bitcoin related names to watch.
Bit Digital Inc 🧙Bit Digital Inc is engaged in the bitcoin mining business. Its mining platform operates with the primary intent of accumulating bitcoin which may sell for fiat currency from time to time depending on market conditions. It generates revenue from cryptocurrency mining.
Setup A Technically
Setup A+ Fundamentally
I was about to buy BTC on 5% of my capital, and after some thinking I decided to buy a company wich produces BTC
United States, Canada, Hong Kong
Short Volume Ratio 17%
ATR 0.57
RVOL 0.77
Float37.11M
Insider Ownership23.20%
Institutional Ownership1.60%
Market Cap334.6867 Mil
52 Week High 33
Average 10 Day Volume2,788,611
Average 30 Day Volume2,887,668
No Dividends
Price/Book4.46
Debt/Equity N/A
28% Discount
last report was great
some institutions were buying in MAY
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BTCUSD to ~42k?I love bitcoin, but this run is looking pretty tired. The top may come soon - in the next few weeks as the coinbase IPO comes out. However, technically I see a lot of things getting weak in this chart. First, the bearish divergence between the RSI making lower highs while BTCUSD made higher highs. Next, we have a MACD that while turning up recently seems to be more tepid that the previous advances. In other words, buyers seem to be getting tired. I think we could find our way to the ~~ 42k range (or possibly even 30k, a full 50% retracement), lets say in the next month or two. To me, this shorter term view looks like we're heading down. Some decent mechanisms to play short include puts on MSTR, RIOT, MARA, CAN, BTBT.
Ultimately I think this 59k level is the real test, but if you wanted to give some room, I would say if we confidently moved north of 62k this idea is wrong. otherwise my target remains 42k.
NCTY & other crypto stocks to make sure y have in your portfolioWe are going to compare some crypto stocks that are leading the charts at the moment and focus mostly on NCTY.
Fundamentals :
So we are looking at one of my favs ! the 9 is a crypto stock that is kicking ass since last Friday's drop and the union bought a massive amount of its dip.
The 9 is now 900% up YTD ! that is massive. The surge of the stock is contributed to the company announcing they will start mining crypto's in Jan 2021 and since has announced the purchase of more mining equipment to mine BTC and FIL among others.
The 9 was also associated with EV plays late last year and its main income was video games, although it is not going so great for them at that sector currently.
They hired Cai Zhifang in February for their crypto subsidiary NBTC, as the new acting CEO.
Cai has been a crypto pioneer since 2013 and co-founded YiBit , one of the first blockchain platforms in china, and get this: in 2015 Cai’s mining rate accounted for over 4% of the global hash rate of BTC worldwide ! with over 300k miners under AvalonMiners.
So what is expected of this stock?
Well personally I would say that just like MARA im playing ping pong with these stocks – I sell them every time they break a new higher high of 5% and buy them at every dip of over 10% - 15% I can get – and thanks to BTC volatility that is going well and giving me a lot of entries and exits 😊
Let's talk technicals :
• From 02 till 12 of Feb stock was going in a nice steady uptrend
• From the 13th till the 19th it moved parabolically and made an 83% move in just 5 trading sessions – ATH of 89.2$ ( this is usually where I start dumping the stock in 20% chunks every time)
• From 23 till 26 the stock has been falling and gave me great cheap entries along the way and bottomed down to 32.9$ (notice the difference from highest high of 89$ - free money !), the level of 32 is now our strongest bottom support and can relay on that area for dip-buying
• From 26 of February till 09 of March stock is channeling 32$ to 51$ - nice channel move to buy and sell steady
• After march 9th it broke 51 and touched 64$ and now trading at that area as its current support
Important points :
1. Below 32 stock is going into the dead zone and we will buy dips only up to that number, below that we will just wait for it to resurface.
2. RSI nose down – correction is due (I think a small one not too big)
3. ADX below 40 – not trending- we must see when it crosses 40 that means the action is coming.
4. The POC (volume point of control) is 42$ - which means stock needs to revisit that area and we will buy more there.
5. Price is sitting exactly on the 50% line from the parabolic motive wave it did in February – the wonders of FIB retracements are amazing – that means we know where the stock needs to be when hype is not high.
Volume analysis :
• 3 months avg volume is 4.8M
• 1M volume avg is 5.2M
• This week its about 1.3M (estimate)
** we want to keep an eye if the volume goes above 3M that can mean the big movement is coming.
What to expect :
I want to see the stock going back to the 42$ area where we can buy more and then converge sideways for a couple of days and then take off above 51$ (green arrow on chart).
If BTC will give us another dive like last week we can expect to get the stock at a massive discount.
Short interest :
11.5% short of float
Increase of 4%
Shares float is 5,900,000
Current shares short 679,700
Nothing special – looks good to me
Insider buys :
Nothing to report – no insider buys found.
Compare to the key players in crypto stocks :
Lets compare MARA , NCTY, STPK, SOS,EBON,BTBT, CAN, RIOT
1. RIOT leading with a 1752% rise
2. MARA 1744%
3. CAN 1380%
4. NCTY 641%
5. BTBT 326%
6. SOS 257%
7. STPK 221%
8. EBON -13%
Crazy percentages all around!
The union will keep buying deeps on these leading stocks and use the best of the BTC era that we are experiencing.
Trade safe! Be safe!
CCNC-you dont know the next stock to ROCK the crypto worldso this is "Code Chain New Continent"
FUNDAMENTAL:
they are quietly building a crypto empire and staying under the reader - a couple of interesting facts:
1. In early February 2021, the company have an announcement for a new co-CEO -David Feng :
"David Feng holds years of experience as a senior computer network security engineer. As the strategic expert and architect in Blockchain, he has applied for several patents on Blockchain core technology, artificial intelligence, and big data"
this is on the tip of the iceberg to what Mr. Fang has done on the blockchain.
2. 23rd Feb, news for CCNC purchase 10,000 Bitcoin mining machines to start their mining business.
The company is expecting over 30k $ per day from these miners and has already put them to work.
3.On march 2nd Company published a ‘Letter of intent’ (LOI) to XiaoJin LangLang, in the intention of acquiring 61% of their business!!!
if they act on this LOI (any day this week!!) that will be a big jump on the stock.
“Under the terms of the LOI, the total consideration for 61% of Xiaojin Langlang's equity interest is expected to be RMB 36 million (approximately USD 5.6 million), subject to completion of a third-party valuation. Of this amount, 50% shall be paid in cash, and 50% shall be paid in the Company's shares of common stock. Code Chain is required to pay $500,000 within 7 business days from the signing date of the LOI, which will be applied to the final purchase price upon entry in to the material definitive purchase agreement. “
(taken from the SEC official LOI)
CEO is also a doctor in blockchain and innovative technology - full DD in our site contains full details.
Lets talk technicals :
So we got a motive wave from 8th of Feb to 17th of Feb with a high of 11.6$, and a volume measure of 14M.
After that we had a retracing wave to the 6.6$ line -what happened next in my opinion had nothing to do with the stock but with the stock market and Crypto market – the drop of 12% of the NASDAQ in a week took the stock in to new lows from 6$ to 4.2$.
Stock needs to go back to the 50% level at 6.6$ (if the market is done with sharp bearish moves).
If we are considering the Eliot wave theory then the stock is ready for its third stage of the impulse (the strongest one! ) to take us back to 10$+.
• Stochastic oversold (8)
• ADX on the 20 level (no trend)
• Ending volume is expected to arrive acc to market cycle theory
• Gap between 4.80 to 5.20 is filled
***If we see stock crosses 3.9$ downward we can enter a low of 2.8$ (at worst case)
***If we see stock trending up we expect it to go back to the POC (50% line is the same line at this case) 6.6$
Volume analysis :
3m average volume: 895K
1m average volume: 1.3M
This week volume: 3.9M
Once the 500k will be transferred (if LOI is executed the stock is expected to give us an upside of 25% - 30%.
And a year from now accounting a 30k min mining gross profit the stock is expected to be well beyond 15$.
We will be waiting to buy the stock and once the market gives us a definite answer regarding the bearish trend that started this month.
please read full DD for the full picture
please trade safe !
After 11721% gain in less than 1 year what could happen?Classic double top is obvious in the chart!
Potential price drop:48%
Reward/Risk:2.92
Timeframe:3-6 months
I always try to present the charts in a simple comprehensive format to prevent any confusion.
This is just my technical view, neither a fundamental comment,nor a recommendation to trade..!
Please review my track record and calculate the odds for yourself..!
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Stay tuned great live stream and quality content videos coming soon..!
BTBT (bit-digital), the forgotten bitcoin miner to 45?Of the three big public bitcoin mining companies (excluding CAN), you'd expect all three (RIOT, MARA, and BTBT) to look the same. But they don't. RIOT, which has a 100m shelf offering has been the biggest gainer. MARA meanwhile is forming a bit of a bearish wedge on it's ascent, and then we have bit digital, BTBT. This is showing a nice rounded bottom with clear resistance around 30. At 2.2 exahash (per their website front page), this is more than twice the hashing power of RIOT. MARA claims to have funding and orders for 100k machines, putting it at over 10 exahash! So, why is it that BTBT is lagging behind?
I can't say, but the chart shows a very nice rounded bottom pattern. Breaking the congestion around the 30 level could open this up to 45-50 (low of the rounded bottom at 15; top at 30).
HUT - Cup and Handle pattern on dailyThis canadian bitcoin miner has formed a nice cup and handle on the 4 hour and daily chart. I prefer handles that do not go past the 50% Fib retracement. Potential catalyst would be uplisting to Nasdaq exchange from OTC for US traders and the OTC symbol is HUMF. I like MARA RIOT and HUT here in bitcoin mining sector. HUT has $48 mill net cash , while Mara and Riot have less net cash. HUT uses natural gas and Wind farms for energy, so a little cheaper production cost compared to MARA and RIOT. HUT has 3000 BTC inventory, MARA 4812 and RIOT 1053. *I live 2 hours away from their mining facility. Go Bitcoin! :)
1/26 WATCHLISTif there is any indication that we are definitely in the final leg of a bull market, today was it. Everything was pumping euphorically at open across the board until the market showed us what a mid-euphoric pullback could look like, with the rug being pulled right from under us. A lot of names like TSLA did bounce back after, but it reminds us that its SUPER IMPORTANT to stay cautious in this environment. I am still bullish in the short term.
1/26 WATCHLIST
My trading style is intraday option trading - these are not swing levels.
MRNA calls over 147.5
BYND calls over 164.15
BYND played out perfectly from the watchlist I posted yesterday. It has a bit more room to go to the next supply at 168.25 and then 171 - let's see if it can keep the momentum up tomorrow
AI calls over 151/152
massive move today. 152 was a support level in December that has turned into resistance that AI has been trying to beat for a month.
TSLA calls over 887 or 900
MSFT calls over 230.2 or 233
Would like to see more tight consolidation underneath these levels but something to keep an eye on for the near future.
BTBT calls over 19