The cryptocurrency market is a market of expectationsLots of good news, but that's just at first glance.
Expectations and reality
1. Last week we had good news about XRP victory, and this news was spread all over the internet and the market reacted with growth. XRP is not a security, but those contracts sold to early stage funds may still be considered securities.
So the case is not closed yet and it will continue as a subject of manipulation
The SEC can appeal this decision at any appropriate time.
2. FTX - there are a lot of rumors and different statements now about the reopening of this exchange, there are a lot of forms on the net ( fraudulent and not) about FTX account recovery and confirmation. Hope is given:) not the fact that the funds will be restored
3. I would not be surprised if they start to restore UST and LUNA case, if they do not start to restore at least give hope. ( reference - the cryptocurrency market is a market of expectations )
4. BTC ETF.
This is the same expectation that has been jutting for a long time and now strong funds such as BlackRock have joined, which have been buying physical bitcoin through other funds for a long time (e.g. at least 10% of Microstrategy belongs to BlackRock).
On the expectation of ETF approval the market is inspired ( I wrote a post about Blackrock ).
In any case after ETF approval we will see a drop here there is a logic:
- ETF contracts can be bought more than physical bitcoins.
- Need a good entry point into the market, 30k+ is not the best entry point
- A drop in price with physical bitcoins + media resources etc. seems to me as very logical and very likely.
All these points should happen at the peak of the hype, when many disillusioned in crypto after FTX and other shocks will start to re-enter the market, it all explains the Logistic Curve - the speed of information dissemination .
The Which curve explains that when FTX crashed in November 2022 was the beginning of a new cycle, which I talked about in previous posts, then everyone was afraid and thought it would go even lower.
And the end zone of the cycle is when the crowd comes into the market, a lot of noise shouting about a bright future, we are on the cusp of these events.
At that time of course we will see a lot of dumb money big green candles on small capitalization altcoins. And that's the time to get out.
Frankly I got out even earlier in stablecoins and now I only do swing trades ( positional orders positions with small stop loss )
If we talk about the time when all this can happen, it is a difficult question, because according to my previous calculations in September-October I was already waiting for the bottom, I am still waiting for it and my portfolio 100% In stablecoins is a proof of it.
Well after the fall we will have the most interesting negative news, here is the list:
- SEC appeal question on XRP
- SEC questions to all crypto companies that made public sale - fines, lawsuit.
- Questions to crypto exchanges ( bankruptcy of crypto exchanges)
- Regulation
- CBDC implementation and trading in some jurisdictions BTC/CBDC ( currency )
You definitely won't want to buy cryptocurrency on news like this, and this will be the moment when the new cycle begins.
So ladies and gentlemen we are here for a long time and welcome to our community. And remember, trading is not a sprint - trading is a marathon.
Best regard EXCAVO
Btc!
TON → One step away from a rally. Trying to change the trendBINANCE:TONUSDT is coming out of a prolonged consolidation, but only one action separates us from the distribution phase. The bitcoin rally is favorable for many altcoins....
In my opinion, TON is a rather undervalued project that has a fundamentally significant base (many altcoins cannot boast of this).
Technically, the consolidation lasted for almost 9 months and, consequently, this energy should be used somewhere. The exit of the price from the accumulation begins to show us in which direction the distribution is likely to go.
The focus is on 5.420 and 5.150. If the bulls hold their defenses above this zone, the coin could show a flight to the moon in the long run. But don't look at cryptocurrencies with rose-colored glasses, assess the situation relative to the risks!
Resistance levels: 5.420, 6.133
Support levels: 5.151, 4.51
The price is breaking the resistance of the bullish pattern (descending wedge or descending triangle), we have to wait for confirmation that the trend change will be true. The fight for 5.420 continues. Let's keep an eye on this zone ;)
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ BINANCE:TONUSDT ;)
Regards R. Linda!
The point of interest is whether it can rise to around 98.9K
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
I think there is a shake to touch the target point of 3.618 (98841.11).
This shake seems likely to change into a trend as it passes through the next volatility period, around November 16-19 (maximum November 15-20).
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If it rises to around 3.618 (98841.1), it is expected that there will be a movement to determine the trend again.
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If it falls below 2.618 (87814.27),
1st: StErr Line
2nd: M-Signal on 1D chart (approximately 79.9K-80.9K)
It is expected to fall to the 1st and 2nd above.
Based on the current price position, if it falls below 75571.99, it seems likely to turn into a downtrend.
The 75571.99 point is the BW(50) point.
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When the StochRSI indicator approaches or touches the 100 point, it is necessary to pay attention to how close the StochRSI EMA indicator is to the StochRSI indicator.
The reason is that the StochRSI EMA has never touched the 100 point yet.
This means that the StochRSI indicator will eventually fall below the StochRSI EMA.
In other words, it also means that the decline has begun.
You cannot tell how much the fluctuations will occur with the StochRSI indicator alone.
However, you can tell the start and end of the trend.
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In that sense, there is a high possibility that volatility will occur when the StErr Line is touched.
Therefore, if the StochRSI < StochRSI EMA falls below the StErr Line and the StErr Line turns downward, you can see that the downward trend is likely in progress.
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Have a good time.
Thank you.
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- Big picture
It is expected that the full-scale uptrend will begin when it rises above 29K.
The section expected to be touched in the next bull market is 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points where resistance is likely to occur in the future.
We need to check if these points can be broken upward.
We need to check the movement when this section is touched because I think a new trend can be created in the overshooting section.
#BTCUSD 1M
If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to start forming a pull back pattern after rising to around 57014.33.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
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Alikze »» ADA | The scenario of wave 3 or C rising super cyclesAccording to the analysis of the previous post that was presented in the 8h time, according to the cup pattern, it made a growth as high as the height of the pattern valley, after which it encountered supply.
💎 But in the weekly time, due to the fact that it created a reliable floor in the golden zone of the previous wave, it faced demand.
💎 Currently, this return wave can be a pullback to a broken structure and a swing, which should meet good demand in the 39 cents area.
💎 First scenario: Therefore, according to the structure and movement behavior, it can have the first target of 0.8789 to 0.9766 by maintaining the green box area.
💎 Alternative scenario: if the range of 39 cents is broken, it can retest the floor of the range of 23 cents again.
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Here's Exactly Why Bitcoin Is Having A Hard Time With 90kTraders, from a technical perspective, I really don't expect Bitcoin to beat 90k immediately. Eventually, yes. But right now there are two big technical reasons why Bitcoin is having a hard time managing to beat 90k. They are the same technical reason for why I called the year end price target of 88k-92k.
First, see that horizontal ascending pink trendline? I took the top of our high on 12 April 2021. I then drew it to the top on 08 Nov. 2021. This is on our weekly chart. I then extended that trendline to the right. Boom 90k.
Second, see that inverse h&s pattern I have been discussing for the last year and a half? I measure from the top of the head to the neckline. Now, I move that measurement to our break of the neckline. Boom 90k.
Now, I am not saying that we won't break 90k. This post is simply to make you aware of how I was able to call our target of 90k and why Bitcoin will have difficulty breaking through that price level.
✌️Stew
BTCUSD: Amazing Rainbow Cycles tell you where to Buy & Sell.Bitcoin is vastly overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 85.391, MACD = 5410.00, ADX = 45.265) as the recent weekly rally since the U.S. elections has pushed it past 90,000. Even the 1W timeframe got overbought (RSI = 74.244). However that overbought state has no impact on the current trend as during Bull Cycles and especially when the final 12 month parabolic rally begins, BTC tends to stay massively overbought for a very long period of time.
On this chart you see how the Bitcoin Rainbow Wave and Bands indicators (by Leoum) are applied with key pressure (both buy and sell) zones among Cycles that can even project future price action. This is a very powerful tool for those who want to plan their entries and exits on a long term scale.
Right now BTC is past the Yellow Zone where buying was suggested before the parabolic rally begins. This has historically been a few months after each Halving. The price just entered the yellow zone of the Rainbow but remains under the middle (purple line) of the cyclical wave. This means that despite the massive recent rally, it is still a fair buy.
The max level to sell on this Cycle is the Red Wave Zone, with the indicator suggesting a max value of $258k. However it is recommended by this model to start selling inside the upper band of the Fair value Zone (orange line), which currently gives a minimum of $145k and a maximum of $211k. Technically that is estimate to be a fair High for this Cycle.
When the next Bear Cycle begins, the model shows that it is best to start buying inside the green zone where BTC is expected to turn oversold near or at 30.000. Amazing as it may seem now, this zone is between $94k -$77k, which is approximately the trading range of this week. Meaning that the projected bottom of the next Bear Cycle could be around the levels we're at now.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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ETH to $5000ETH looks bullish, it might just shoot up the moment BTC calms down, now it's silently going under everyone's radar while everyone is focused on BTC.
Everyone saying Sol, Sui other nonsense will change ETH. This the most clear entry signal.
ETH ATH coming soon.
INDICATOR USED - 'MONEY PRINTER' my own fresh creation.
#BTC cycle analysis, where will it top? Hey guys i try to share my idea behind this chart in this one
sorry for long rant :)
also at the end video was cut cause of 20 min limit, was just trying to talk about how Pi cycle indicator is significant in past & how it had marked tops in the past, we are nowhere close to it so just few things to keep an eye on
ALTCOINS TOTAL3 Altcoins have struggled in the last 5-6 months since BTCs slowdown.
Some alts are down 80% from their highs but are now displaying a promising pattern for the bulls. The chart shows the daily support that intersects 3 points that make a head and shoulders pattern. This H&S pattern is an important reversal structure that if gets completed would signify the bottom of the downtrend and the beginning of an uptrend.
Since this H&S reversal TOTAL3 has flipped the 1D 200EMA and is now at diagonal resistance. Should this resistance be broken and accepted above as well as the WEEKLY S/R then the next target is DAILY RESISTANCE. This would be great for smaller can alts especially the newer projects that have not experienced a Bullrun yet.
In terms of a trade setup. I would place an SL below the local low as this would be a trend break and could signify a further sell-off.
Take profits @ DAILY RESISTANCE, $720B & $780B.
Hedera updates in progressRumors suggest that the X team is conducting internal tests with Hedera, according to discussions on Reddit forums, and confirmation could be just around the corner. If this speculation proves true, it might be a prime moment to consider adding more HBAR to your bag, as Elon Musk takes business seriously. Hedera stands out as the only blockchain backed by several major corporations, making it a logical choice for validation by the X team.
BINANCE:BTCUSDT COINBASE:ETHUSD
BTCUSD Eyes $93K Amid Institutional Buys & Post-Election InflowsFundamental Analysis:
MicroStrategy's Major Purchase: MicroStrategy’s recent acquisition of 27,200 BTC at an average price of $74,463 reinforces its bullish outlook. This buy has pushed Bitcoin's valuation and likely contributed to the recent rally, with Bitcoin now trading near $84,000. The company now holds 279,420 BTC, valued at approximately $23 billion, showcasing substantial institutional backing, which could add stability and investor confidence.
Crypto Investment Inflows: Following the recent US elections, there has been a surge in crypto investment inflows, with $1.98 billion added, pointing to renewed investor interest in digital assets. The post-election sentiment and optimism about future economic policy may further boost Bitcoin's demand, sustaining its current upward momentum.
Market Sentiment: With Bitcoin nearing its ATH, the market is at a crossroads. Some analysts predict a rally toward $100,000, while others warn of a potential correction due to overbought conditions. The massive inflows and institutional investments suggest optimism, but caution is advised due to the likelihood of profit-taking and market volatility.
Outlook:
Bullish Scenario: Stability above the $79600 resistance could propel BTC/USD toward the $92800 and $100,000, driven by strong institutional support and positive market sentiment.
Bearish Scenario: Failure to break resistance could lead to a correction, with potential support around $71,400.
Conclusion:
The BTC/USD chart reflects a strong bullish outlook, but it is crucial to remain cautious of potential corrections, especially near key resistance levels. MicroStrategy’s large-scale investment and post-election inflows provide a supportive backdrop, making a $100,000 target plausible if Bitcoin sustains its current momentum.
previous idea:
AR Long Spot Trade (Support Zone) Market Context: AR has moved into a key support zone, presenting an opportunity to ladder into a long spot position. This range provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio if support holds and the price reverses upwards.
Trade Setup:
Entry: Ladder in between $11.00 - $12.75
Take Profit:
First target: $17.50 - $20.00
Second target: $24.00 - $26.50
Stop Loss: Just below $10.00 (daily close)
This setup seeks to capitalize on the support zone for a potential reversal. #AR
It's an inherent market behavior !!Bitcoin has completed its third upward wave, and now it's time for a price correction down to around $83k. The price can correct itself and then continue its growth.
every uptrend has to be corrected, that's the nature of the market.
Give me some energy !!
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Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
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⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!