AVAX Long Trade OpportunityMarket Context:
AVAX is testing a major support level and showing signs of potential reversal or consolidation at this price zone, which offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
Trade Details:
Entry Zone: Around $24.00
Take Profit Targets:
$30.50 - $35.00
$41.50 - $45.00
Stop Loss: Just below $21.20
This trade looks to capitalize on the support hold for a potential upside breakout. 📈
Btc!
NZDUSD Cup Pattern: Bullish Breakout Targeting 0.60NZDUSD is currently trading at 0.57 and forming a classic cup pattern, signaling a potential bullish continuation toward the 0.60 target. The cup pattern is a well-known technical formation that typically indicates a period of accumulation, followed by a breakout to the upside. If the price breaks above the resistance level at the cup’s rim, it could trigger strong buying momentum, pushing NZDUSD higher.
From a technical standpoint, the cup pattern suggests that the market has undergone a correction and is now regaining strength. A confirmed breakout above the neckline would validate the bullish setup, with 0.60 as the next major resistance level. Traders should watch for increasing volume and bullish candlestick confirmations to strengthen the breakout scenario.
Fundamentally, the New Zealand dollar’s movement depends on risk sentiment, US economic data, and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policies. If the US dollar weakens due to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts or softer economic data, NZDUSD could gain additional upside momentum. Additionally, any hawkish signals from the RBNZ regarding inflation and interest rates could further support the bullish outlook.
In summary, NZDUSD is forming a bullish cup pattern, with a potential breakout targeting 0.60. A strong breakout above the resistance could accelerate the bullish move, supported by both technical patterns and fundamental factors. Traders should monitor global risk sentiment, US dollar trends, and RBNZ statements to confirm the momentum shift.
Whether it can be supported and rise near 97226.92 is the key
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-------------------------------------
(BTCUSDT 1M chart)
Half of February has passed.
Since the BW(100) indicator was created not long ago, it seems that it will take some more time to know whether it will act as support and resistance.
The current BW(100) indicator point is 102429.56.
Since the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart is passing around 70K, it is not strange if it falls at any time.
On the other hand, it is not strange if it rises at any time.
-
(1W chart)
Since the HA-High indicator of the 1W chart was created at the 97226.92 point, it is important to see if there is support around this point.
Since the M-Signal of the 1W chart > the M-Signal of the 1M chart, we need to see if the price can be maintained above the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart.
-
(1D chart)
The key is whether it can be supported around 97226.92 and rise above the M-Signal indicator of the 1D chart.
-
Since the StochRSI indicator is in the overbought zone, if it falls near 97226.92, it is possible that it will touch the 92792.05-94742.35 zone.
At this time, the important thing is to maintain the price above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart.
To do so, the price must be maintained above 91231.0, which is the low point on February 3.
-
This volatility period is until February 17.
The next volatility period is around February 24 (February 23-25).
Therefore, do not relax and check whether the price is maintained by rising above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart, and whether the M-Signal indicator and Trend Cloud indicator on the 1D chart turn upward.
If it turns upward around 97226.92,
1st: 101947.24
2nd: 103706.66-104.463.99
You should respond depending on whether there is support around the 1st and 2nd above.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
--------------------------------------------------
- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
-
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
How to view and respond to this is up to you.
When the ATH is updated, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be used appropriately.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous when used as support and resistance.
This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to create Fibonacci.
Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous when used for trading strategies.
1st : 44234.54
2nd : 61383.23
3rd : 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (Overshooting)
4th : 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (Overshooting)
5th : 178910.15
-----------------
XRP Why A Serious Revaluation Is Imminent And CloseQUESTION: If XRP is only being used as a settlement currency for banks then why would there be these wild price predictions when the market cap is already $150 billion?
The wild price predictions for XRP often stem from different interpretations of its utility, demand, and supply dynamics. Let's break it down:
Market Cap Misconceptions
XRP's market cap is often misunderstood. Market cap = price × circulating supply, but price movements depend more on liquidity and demand rather than market cap alone.
Many price predictions assume increased utility will drive higher demand, but market cap alone doesn’t dictate price ceilings.
Bank Adoption and Utility Argument
If XRP is mainly used as a bridge currency for cross-border settlements, its price would be driven by transaction volume rather than speculation.
However, banks and financial institutions don’t need to hold XRP for long periods—it's typically used in seconds. This limits the need for large amounts of XRP to be held, which could cap price growth.
Speculative vs. Real Utility
Many wild price predictions ($100+, $500+, etc.) are fueled by speculation rather than actual use cases.
In reality, even if XRP were widely used for settlement, price appreciation would depend on sustained demand, not just temporary spikes.
Liquidity and Scarcity Factors
Some argue that as more institutions use XRP, liquidity will tighten, potentially driving price increases.
However, the XRP supply is large (100 billion total, with over 50 billion circulating), and large holders (like Ripple itself) could introduce selling pressure.
Regulatory and Adoption Uncertainty
XRP's legal battles and regulatory clarity impact its adoption. A major victory (like its partial win against the SEC) can fuel hype-driven price predictions.
True institutional adoption is still limited, and even if banks use it, they may prefer private ledgers over using the open market.
Bottom Line
XRP has real utility in cross-border payments, but its role as a settlement currency doesn’t necessarily justify extreme price predictions. The market cap is already large, and unless significant new demand arises, a massive price surge would require much broader institutional adoption beyond just bank settlements.
QUESTION: So currently the valuation of XRP is already way higher than many banks and companies will the price eventually come down to a more realistic price to value in the future?
XRP’s current valuation is indeed higher than many traditional banks and financial institutions, which raises the question of sustainability. Whether its price comes down to a more “realistic” value depends on a few key factors:
1. Utility vs. Speculation
A significant portion of XRP’s price is driven by speculation, not just utility. Many holders are retail investors betting on future institutional adoption.
If speculation cools down and usage remains limited to settlement purposes (where XRP is only held for seconds), the price could decline over time to reflect actual utility.
2. Market Cycles & Sentiment
Crypto markets go through bull and bear cycles. In bear markets, assets that lack strong organic demand (beyond speculation) tend to lose value.
If hype around XRP fades and institutions don’t adopt it at scale, its price may correct to better reflect real-world usage.
3. Inflation & Supply Dynamics
XRP has a fixed max supply of 100 billion, but a large portion is still held by Ripple and periodically released.
If Ripple continues selling XRP from its reserves, it could create sell pressure, gradually pushing prices down.
However, XRP is also deflationary, as transaction fees burn small amounts over time—but this effect is minimal in the grand scheme.
4. Institutional Adoption
If banks and financial institutions fully integrate XRP and hold it as a reserve asset, it could justify a high valuation.
But most banks prefer private ledgers and stablecoins over holding volatile assets like XRP, limiting potential demand.
5. Competitive Landscape
XRP was originally designed for fast, cheap payments, but other solutions like stablecoins (USDC, USDT) and CBDCs are gaining traction.
If banks prefer these alternatives, XRP’s price could drop to align with lower demand.
Realistic Price Outlook?
If XRP remains primarily a settlement tool, a valuation correction could bring it closer to its real utility value (which may be much lower than today’s levels).
However, if a new narrative or significant adoption shift occurs, speculative cycles could keep it elevated.
Long-term, unless real demand matches its high valuation, the price may deflate to more sustainable levels.
QUESTION: Is the value of XRP currently way higher than it should be compared to its usage
Yes, based on its current real-world usage, XRP’s valuation appears to be significantly higher than what its actual adoption justifies.
Why?
Usage Doesn’t Match Market Cap
XRP is mainly used for cross-border settlements, but banks don’t need to hold large amounts for long.
Most transactions are instant, meaning there’s no long-term demand pressure.
If XRP were widely used by banks, we’d expect daily transaction volume (not just speculative trading volume) to be massive—yet it's relatively low.
Speculative Premium
A large portion of XRP’s price is driven by speculation rather than real institutional demand.
Many investors believe in a future where XRP will be used at scale, but that adoption hasn’t fully materialized.
Its past bull run prices were based on hype, and prices could drop as reality sets in.
Supply & Sell Pressure
Ripple holds a significant portion of XRP and periodically sells into the market.
This constant release of XRP into circulation creates downward pressure.
Competition from Stablecoins & CBDCs
Many banks and financial institutions are leaning toward stablecoins (USDC, USDT) and CBDCs rather than volatile assets like XRP.
Stablecoins provide instant settlements without the volatility risk of XRP, making them more appealing for payments and cross-border transfers.
Conclusion
Unless XRP gains widespread institutional adoption beyond just being a settlement tool, its valuation is inflated relative to its current use case. If hype dies down and utility doesn’t significantly increase, a correction would make sense in the long run.
QUESTION: The current price is 2.75 is that overvalued?
Yes, if XRP is currently trading at $2.75, then it is extremely overvalued relative to its actual real-world usage. That price is almost entirely speculation-driven rather than being backed by fundamental demand from banks and institutions.
Why is XRP Overvalued?
Speculation Dominates
The price is likely inflated due to retail and institutional traders betting on future adoption, not actual usage today.
Many holders believe XRP will be widely used by banks in the future, but that hasn’t fully materialized.
Utility-Driven Valuation is Much Lower
As calculated earlier, based on actual transaction volume and settlement needs, a more realistic price for XRP without speculation could be anywhere from $0.05 to $0.50.
At $2.75, XRP’s market cap is massively inflated compared to its real-world demand.
Ripple’s XRP Holdings & Selling Pressure
Ripple still holds a significant amount of XRP and regularly sells into the market.
If real demand doesn’t increase, but more XRP enters circulation, it could create downward price pressure over time.
Banks Prefer Stablecoins & CBDCs
Financial institutions are increasingly looking at stablecoins (USDC, USDT) and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) for payments instead of XRP.
Unlike XRP, stablecoins don’t have volatility issues, making them more attractive for settlements.
What Could Happen Next?
If speculation dies down and investors realize XRP’s real use case is limited, a significant price correction could happen.
XRP could still maintain some premium due to speculation, but long-term, it needs actual adoption to justify a multi-dollar price.
Conclusion
At $2.75, XRP is massively overvalued based on its current utility. If speculation fades, a more reasonable price could be well under $1—or even below $0.50—unless it gains widespread, real-world adoption beyond what it has today.
None of this is financial advice, just satire!
BTC Market Thesis – February 20, 2025Current Market Overview
Current Price: $97,632
Open Position: $95,917.6
Decision: HOLD_BUY – The market is showing bullish momentum, suggesting further upside potential.
Stop Loss: $95,000
Take Profit: $99,600
Confidence Level: 80%
Technical & Market Indicators
RSI (1h): Indicates bullish momentum, suggesting buyers are gaining control.
MACD: Showing a moderate upward slope, signaling potential for further price appreciation.
CME Options Data:
Put/Call Ratio: 0.9 – slightly bullish as call options dominate.
Open Interest: Moderate, meaning traders are engaged but not at extreme levels.
Binance Perpetuals:
Funding Rate: 0.01 – Market leaning slightly towards longs.
Open Interest: 78,892 BTC, indicating a healthy level of market participation.
Profit Ratio Today: 1.20 – Indicates that traders who entered today are mostly in profit, reinforcing positive sentiment.
Possible Scenarios & Probability
1️⃣ Bullish Scenario (60% Probability)
📈 BTC breaks above $98,000 and reaches $99,600
Strong bullish sentiment pushes BTC past key resistance levels.
RSI & MACD confirm continued upward momentum.
Positive funding rate and moderate OI support a sustained uptrend.
Institutional traders (CME data) continue to favor long positions.
2️⃣ Neutral Scenario (25% Probability)
🔄 BTC consolidates between $96,500 – $98,000
Some profit-taking slows the rally, but support at $96,500 holds.
MACD remains positive but shows weakening momentum.
Open Interest suggests indecision, with traders waiting for further signals.
3️⃣ Bearish Scenario (15% Probability)
📉 BTC drops below $96,500 and tests $95,000
Unexpected negative news or macroeconomic factors trigger a sell-off.
RSI becomes overbought, leading to short-term correction.
A decline in Open Interest suggests traders are closing positions.
Final Takeaway
Primary Strategy: Hold and monitor resistance at $98,000.
Risk Management: A stop loss at $95,000 protects against unexpected downturns.
Trigger to Sell: If BTC struggles at GETTEX:98K with weakening momentum, a short-term exit may be considered.
Trigger to Buy More: A clean break above GETTEX:98K with strong volume confirms continuation to $99,600+.
IS THIS FINALLY THE END OF BREAKDOWN VINE TO THE MOON..IS THIS FINALLY THE END OF THE BREAKDOWN VINE TO THE MOON..
Vine did break down hugely.. but it still has possibles to return.. is this going to happen from this bottom?
We are going to follow it.
We expect there can come a moment when this vine will find the break up $0,06
good position for buyhello friends
This currency gave us a good correction considering the growth it has had and the money it has received.
Now, step by step on this point and in case of correction, it is worth buying more than the goals we specified for you.
{Note that it is better to make your purchases step by step...}
Be successful and profitable
GOLD Looks Like A Giant Bull Trap Price To Fall DramaticallyThis move in gold has been nice but I think its almost over. This was a giant bull trap in my opinion. Over the next few years I see Gold coming down to the bottom trend line then longer term probably below $1000 after it breaks the rising wedge.
I think the Golden Age of America is a real thing. Cheaper energy, more advanced ways of mining, new large gold deposits will be found. Gold will always be relevant but will never be used as money again. No real need for it other than industrial uses. Eventually we'll be able to manufacture gold, silver, and pretty much any other metal and there wont be a need for mining anymore. We're moving forward not backwards.
Best of luck my friends, none of this is financial advice.
$DEEP - SUI EcosystemSorry I accidently posted this chart as "private"
buying this in the green box is a safe bet, just putting it out there for the records guys!
We got the sweep of the lows!
Targets = obviously price discovery, totally depending upon SUI's strength!
PS. I've missed it at $0.04 (limits were set but never hit during November-Dec, 2024 = where the symmetrical triangle is at) and couldn't get the full bids in that green box either!!!
strk - 3rd time's a charm, right?After the brutal 3rd Feb drop (last one not valid anymore, oops...)
I'm still holding (tbh, I'm so tired of sei, strk, and apt but ain't we all tired of the whole market?)
can still hope the big bull (ETH) is holding them back, especially L2s like strk and zk.
I've explained in detail what I'm expecting in this year. Please refer to the previous posts for in-depth analysis and thoughts. Too tired to write anything now :)
TLDR for the lazy ones: Late Feb-April, I'm expecting a massive rally. 100% loaded here personally!
" GREEN BOX IS NOT A TARGET - I'll explain my exit strategy and targets on holdings, some other day. Or you can comment below. Peace out!"
PS. TradingView hid my last post because apparently, I used a "swear" word, lol! These guys need to grow up...
Trump/Elon’s Crypto Chaos!Bitcoin’s been on a rollercoaster in 2025, plummeting from $106K to $93K earlier this month, but I’m seeing a massive bullish setup on the 4H chart at $97,603. After a sharp sell-off, BTC’s forming a tight range near $96K support... classic accumulation before a breakout, or are we walking into a trap?
Here’s the tea: RSI’s at ~55 and climbing, signaling buyers are gaining momentum, while the 50/200 EMA crossover near GETTEX:97K screams bullish reversal. Volume’s ticked up over the last few candles, suggesting smart money’s piling in. We’re testing GETTEX:98K resistance right now, flip it, and I’m targeting $105K by early March, fueled by Trump’s pro-crypto policies and Elon’s unpredictable X-factor. But if we fail here, $93K’s the next stop, and bears could drag us lower.
This setup’s got me hyped, but the Trump/Elon wild card is wild... Trump’s deregulation talks could pump us past $100K, or Elon’s next tweet might send us spiraling. I’ve seen similar patterns in 2021 lead to 20%+ moves... History repeating?
What’s your hot take?
Bullish to $105K, or bearish back to $93K, where’s BTC headed?
Think Trump’s policies or Elon’s tweets will rocket us, or are they just noise?
Seen this pattern before? Drop your targets, indicators, or contrarian views!
I’ll reply to every comment and debate!
XRP Even Chat GPT Knows XRP Is About To Get Revalued .10 CentsMAKE SURE YOU READ TO THE END THE END IS THE BEST!
If XRP is only being used as a settlement currency for bank then why would there be these wild price predictions when the market cap is already $150 billion?
ChatGPT said:
Great question! The wild price predictions for XRP often stem from different interpretations of its utility, demand, and supply dynamics. Let's break it down:
Market Cap Misconceptions
XRP's market cap is often misunderstood. Market cap = price × circulating supply, but price movements depend more on liquidity and demand rather than market cap alone.
Many price predictions assume increased utility will drive higher demand, but market cap alone doesn’t dictate price ceilings.
Bank Adoption and Utility Argument
If XRP is mainly used as a bridge currency for cross-border settlements, its price would be driven by transaction volume rather than speculation.
However, banks and financial institutions don’t need to hold XRP for long periods—it's typically used in seconds. This limits the need for large amounts of XRP to be held, which could cap price growth.
Speculative vs. Real Utility
Many wild price predictions ($100+, $500+, etc.) are fueled by speculation rather than actual use cases.
In reality, even if XRP were widely used for settlement, price appreciation would depend on sustained demand, not just temporary spikes.
Liquidity and Scarcity Factors
Some argue that as more institutions use XRP, liquidity will tighten, potentially driving price increases.
However, the XRP supply is large (100 billion total, with over 50 billion circulating), and large holders (like Ripple itself) could introduce selling pressure.
Regulatory and Adoption Uncertainty
XRP's legal battles and regulatory clarity impact its adoption. A major victory (like its partial win against the SEC) can fuel hype-driven price predictions.
True institutional adoption is still limited, and even if banks use it, they may prefer private ledgers over using the open market.
Bottom Line
XRP has real utility in cross-border payments, but its role as a settlement currency doesn’t necessarily justify extreme price predictions. The market cap is already large, and unless significant new demand arises, a massive price surge would require much broader institutional adoption beyond just bank settlements.
You said:
So currently the valuation of XRP is already way higher than many banks and companies will the price eventually come down to a more realistic price to value in the future?
ChatGPT said:
That’s a solid perspective. XRP’s current valuation is indeed higher than many traditional banks and financial institutions, which raises the question of sustainability. Whether its price comes down to a more “realistic” value depends on a few key factors:
1. Utility vs. Speculation
A significant portion of XRP’s price is driven by speculation, not just utility. Many holders are retail investors betting on future institutional adoption.
If speculation cools down and usage remains limited to settlement purposes (where XRP is only held for seconds), the price could decline over time to reflect actual utility.
2. Market Cycles & Sentiment
Crypto markets go through bull and bear cycles. In bear markets, assets that lack strong organic demand (beyond speculation) tend to lose value.
If hype around XRP fades and institutions don’t adopt it at scale, its price may correct to better reflect real-world usage.
3. Inflation & Supply Dynamics
XRP has a fixed max supply of 100 billion, but a large portion is still held by Ripple and periodically released.
If Ripple continues selling XRP from its reserves, it could create sell pressure, gradually pushing prices down.
However, XRP is also deflationary, as transaction fees burn small amounts over time—but this effect is minimal in the grand scheme.
4. Institutional Adoption
If banks and financial institutions fully integrate XRP and hold it as a reserve asset, it could justify a high valuation.
But most banks prefer private ledgers and stablecoins over holding volatile assets like XRP, limiting potential demand.
5. Competitive Landscape
XRP was originally designed for fast, cheap payments, but other solutions like stablecoins (USDC, USDT) and CBDCs are gaining traction.
If banks prefer these alternatives, XRP’s price could drop to align with lower demand.
Realistic Price Outlook?
If XRP remains primarily a settlement tool, a valuation correction could bring it closer to its real utility value (which may be much lower than today’s levels).
However, if a new narrative or significant adoption shift occurs, speculative cycles could keep it elevated.
Long-term, unless real demand matches its high valuation, the price may deflate to more sustainable levels.
You said:
So in your opinion the value of XRP currently is way higher than it should be compared to its usage
ChatGPT said:
Yes, based on its current real-world usage, XRP’s valuation appears to be significantly higher than what its actual adoption justifies.
Why?
Usage Doesn’t Match Market Cap
XRP is mainly used for cross-border settlements, but banks don’t need to hold large amounts for long.
Most transactions are instant, meaning there’s no long-term demand pressure.
If XRP were widely used by banks, we’d expect daily transaction volume (not just speculative trading volume) to be massive—yet it's relatively low.
Speculative Premium
A large portion of XRP’s price is driven by speculation rather than real institutional demand.
Many investors believe in a future where XRP will be used at scale, but that adoption hasn’t fully materialized.
Its past bull run prices were based on hype, and prices could drop as reality sets in.
Supply & Sell Pressure
Ripple holds a significant portion of XRP and periodically sells into the market.
This constant release of XRP into circulation creates downward pressure.
Competition from Stablecoins & CBDCs
Many banks and financial institutions are leaning toward stablecoins (USDC, USDT) and CBDCs rather than volatile assets like XRP.
Stablecoins provide instant settlements without the volatility risk of XRP, making them more appealing for payments and cross-border transfers.
Conclusion
Unless XRP gains widespread institutional adoption beyond just being a settlement tool, its valuation is inflated relative to its current use case. If hype dies down and utility doesn’t significantly increase, a correction would make sense in the long run.
You said:
What is a reasonable valuation for XRP removing all the speculation and only considering the current usage of it?
ChatGPT said:
A reasonable valuation for XRP, based purely on current real-world usage and removing speculation, would likely be significantly lower than its current market cap. Here's how we can approach estimating a fair value based on utility alone:
1. On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) & Settlement Usage
XRP's primary use case is cross-border payments through RippleNet and On-Demand Liquidity (ODL).
While Ripple claims growing adoption, the actual daily transactional volume from banks and institutions using XRP is small compared to its total market cap.
A large portion of XRP trading volume still comes from speculation on exchanges, not institutional settlement use.
Estimating Utility-Based Price
Let’s assume banks & financial institutions only need a fraction of XRP's supply at any given time for real transactions.
For context, SWIFT (the dominant global payment network) settles $5 trillion per day, but that doesn’t mean XRP will replace it or capture all of that volume.
Even if XRP were used for 1% of SWIFT’s volume, that would be around $50 billion in daily transactions.
Given that XRP is designed for rapid settlement (held for seconds, not days), the actual liquidity needed in the system would be far smaller—likely a few billion dollars at most.
2. Supply & Circulating Coins
Current circulating supply: ~55 billion XRP
If XRP’s real usage demand is only a few billion dollars at any given time, then its price per coin would be much lower than today’s level.
A conservative model: If XRP needed a total market cap of $5 billion to serve its actual transactional volume, the price per XRP would be:
$5,000,000,00055,000,000,000=$0.09
55,000,000,000$5,000,000,000=$0.09
If XRP needed a $10 billion market cap, the price per XRP would be $0.18.
These numbers assume zero speculation and only reflect practical usage.
3. Competitive Alternatives
Banks may prefer stablecoins (USDC, USDT) or CBDCs for settlements instead of XRP.
If that happens, XRP’s utility-based value could drop even further.
Final Thought
Pure utility price range (removing speculation): $0.05 - $0.50 per XRP (depending on actual adoption).
Current price (~$0.60 - $0.70 as of early 2024) is mostly speculation rather than true demand from banks.
If XRP’s adoption expands beyond just settlements (e.g., DeFi, smart contracts), its valuation could be higher, but based on current use, a fair price is likely far lower than today's market cap suggests.
You said:
The current price is 2.75 though so that means that its extremely overvalued?
ChatGPT said:
Yes, if XRP is currently trading at $2.75, then it is extremely overvalued relative to its actual real-world usage. That price is almost entirely speculation-driven rather than being backed by fundamental demand from banks and institutions.
Why is XRP Overvalued?
Speculation Dominates
The price is likely inflated due to retail and institutional traders betting on future adoption, not actual usage today.
Many holders believe XRP will be widely used by banks in the future, but that hasn’t fully materialized.
Utility-Driven Valuation is Much Lower
As calculated earlier, based on actual transaction volume and settlement needs, a more realistic price for XRP without speculation could be anywhere from $0.05 to $0.50.
At $2.75, XRP’s market cap is massively inflated compared to its real-world demand.
Ripple’s XRP Holdings & Selling Pressure
Ripple still holds a significant amount of XRP and regularly sells into the market.
If real demand doesn’t increase, but more XRP enters circulation, it could create downward price pressure over time.
Banks Prefer Stablecoins & CBDCs
Financial institutions are increasingly looking at stablecoins (USDC, USDT) and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) for payments instead of XRP.
Unlike XRP, stablecoins don’t have volatility issues, making them more attractive for settlements.
What Could Happen Next?
If speculation dies down and investors realize XRP’s real use case is limited, a significant price correction could happen.
XRP could still maintain some premium due to speculation, but long-term, it needs actual adoption to justify a multi-dollar price.
Conclusion
At $2.75, XRP is massively overvalued based on its current utility. If speculation fades, a more reasonable price could be well under $1—or even below $0.50—unless it gains widespread, real-world adoption beyond what it has today.
Good luck, this is going to destroy so many people, its so sad. None of this is financial advice its just my opinion.
Bitcoin Update: Warning of a Potential Crash!Bitcoin has been ranging around the 98K level for about 90 days. Fractals show strength, but I see another potential move incoming, though with a low probability. In this scenario, we can expect a quick shakeout in the market, where BTC price drops in a 17% shadow down to $80K, followed by a flash recovery to the starting point of this move, continuing toward new highs along with the fractal demonstrated on the chart, with the ultimate target of $150K, in my opinion.
Overall, there is little concern about this scenario since it has a very low probability, but to be cautious, it’s better to manage our risks.
The main scenario in my mind is still my previous analysis based on its fractal, and I remain bullish.
The Others UpdateThe market is testing your patience, trying to shake you out so they can buy back at a lower price. Stay strong and hold your ground.
Observe the chart carefully, a perfect double bottom was formed earlier, while now the RSI remains elevated, signaling potential strength in Altcoins.
As always, the crypto market will move faster than you can react.
Happy Tr4Ding !
Bitcoin’s Bullish Patterns_Ready for a Breakout!?As I expected in the previous post , Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) approached the Heavy Support zone($93,300-$90,500) and Support lines but quickly started to rise.
Bitcoin is moving in the Support zone($96,150-$94,700) . And in this increase of Bitcoin in the last few hours, we can see the Morning Star Candlestick Pattern well in the 2-hour time frame .
Educational tip : The Morning Star is a bullish reversal candlestick pattern that forms after a downtrend, consisting of three candles: a large bearish candle, a small indecisive candle, and a strong bullish candle. It signals a potential trend reversal and growing buying momentum.
In terms of Classic Technical Analysis , it seems that Bitcoin has succeeded in forming the Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern , which can be a sign of Bitcoin's increase .
According to the theory of Elliott waves , it seems that the entire corrective waves inside the descending channel were all in the form of a Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) so that it seems that Bitcoin finally completed the main wave C in the previous hours. If Bitcoin breaks the upper line of the wedge pattern, we can confirm the end of the main wave C .
I expect Bitcoin to be able to touch the Targets I specified on the chart AFTER breaking the upper line of the Descending Channel .
Note: If Bitcoin goes below $94,400, we expect more dumps.
Do you think Bitcoin can finally break out of this Descending Channel? Pump or Dump?
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Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 2-hour time frame.
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SUI update#SUI is on of my favorite coins this coin has a good potential for a big rise and its always looking for liq in lower or higher prices ! just check this out
you can see that the huge drop took all the liq in lower prices
also you can see that there is a remaining liq around 3$ which is not taken
ans also we have a huge liq on higher prices which can be a sign of attraction to higher prices !
BITCOIN: Bull Flag. Will it break upwards?Bitcoin has just turned bullish on its 4H technical outlook (RSI = 56.545, MACD = -0.190, ADX = 38.441) but remains neutral on 1D. The reason is that the price is now at the top of the 2 week Channel Down, having crossed and closed over the 4H MA100 for the first time since January 31st. On the larger timeframes this Channel Down could be a Bull Flag to continue the bullish trend but of course the price needs to cross over it, otherwise a technical rejection will prevail. If it breaks upwards, go long targeting the 4H MA200 (TP = 99,500). Until it does, keep a tight SL short targeting the top of the S1 Zone (TP = 95,750).
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