Bearish Trend Meets Bullish Momentum: Is BTC Ready for a Rebound📉 Bitcoin is currently in a strong bearish trend on higher timeframes, but 📈 the 1-hour timeframe shows a break of structure and bullish momentum. This suggests a potential short-term pullback into the previous range, aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. 🔄 Additionally, there’s a bearish imbalance above that could be rebalanced. While this presents a possible buy opportunity, ⚠️ it’s a high-risk setup due to the overall bearish trend. Always trade with caution! 🚨
Disclaimer
⚠️ This is not financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with funds you can afford to lose. Always do your own research and consult a professional if needed. 💡
Btc!
Bullish bounce?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has bounced of the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 81,264.56
1st Support: 78,172.96
1st Resistance: 86,012.36
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Next Volatility Period: Around April 5 (April 4-6)
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(BTCUSDT 1M chart)
A new candle has been created as a new month begins.
The StochRSI indicator has fallen below the midpoint, and OBV has been hunting since around October 1, 2024.
As I mentioned before, the StochRSI indicator must fall to the oversold zone and then rise to create a peak in order to draw a trend line between the lows.
Therefore, the point to watch next month is whether the StochRSI indicator can enter the oversold zone.
The key is whether the price can be maintained above 73499.86.
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(1D chart)
If the current StochRSI indicator creates a peak in the oversold zone, that is, if it closes up, the uptrend line (2) will be completed.
If that happens, we should see whether it can maintain the price by rising above the Fibonacci ratio 2.24 (83646.12) around April 5th.
If not, it is highly likely that it will eventually fall again.
In the explanation of the 1M chart, I said that the StochRSI indicator should enter the oversold zone.
You may think that the price should fall because of this, but you should not necessarily think that the price will fall because the StochRSI indicator may show a downward trend even if the price rises.
In such an ambiguous situation, rather than predicting whether it will rise or fall, you should check whether the current price position is supported or falling and think about whether to respond.
As I said earlier, you should respond depending on whether there is support near the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart where the arrow is pointing.
This time, you should check in which direction it deviates from the Fibonacci ratio range of 2 (80999.68) ~ 2.24 (83646.12) and think about a response plan.
This movement is expected to appear after the next volatility period, April 4-6.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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- This is an explanation of the big picture.
To check the entire range of BTC, I used TradingView's INDEX chart.
I rewrote the previous chart to update it by touching the Fibonacci ratio range of 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10).
(Previous BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
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(Current BTCUSD 12M chart)
Based on the currently written Fibonacci ratio, it is displayed up to 3.618 (178910.15).
It is expected that it will not fall again below the Fibonacci ratio of 0.618 (44234.54).
(BTCUSDT 12M chart)
Based on the BTCUSDT chart, I think it is around 42283.58.
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I will explain it again with the BTCUSD chart.
The Fibonacci ratio ranges marked in the green boxes, 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10) and 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83), are expected to be important support and resistance ranges.
In other words, it seems likely that they will act as volume profile ranges.
Therefore, in order to break through these ranges upward, I think the point of interest is whether they can be supported and rise near the Fibonacci ratios of 1.618 (89126.41) and 2.618 (134018.28).
Therefore, the maximum rising range in 2025 is expected to be the 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83) range.
In order to do that, we need to see if it is supported and rises near 2.618 (134018.28).
If it falls after the bull market in 2025, we don't know how far it will fall, but based on the previous decline, we expect it to fall by about -60% to -70%.
Therefore, if it starts to fall near the Fibonacci ratio of 3.14 (157451.83), it seems likely that it will fall to around Fibonacci 0.618 (44234.54).
I will explain more details when the bear market starts.
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BTC - 1H Clean Liquidity Hunt & Bearish Continuation BINANCE:BTCUSDT - 1H Update
Bitcoin remains in a bearish trend on the 4H and daily timeframes. After hunting the liquidity above the resistance zone, price began to drop exactly from our shared short entry at 83,700—and it's now on the move toward deeper targets.
🔹 Key Insights:
BTC grabbed liquidity just above resistance before reversing.
Price is now likely heading toward the liquidation zone below the support, aligning with the broader downtrend.
This setup offered a perfect short opportunity from $83,700, with clearly defined targets and risk.
🎯 Last Target: 80,200
💡 Congrats to all who followed our signal! The move is unfolding as expected.
📊 Stay locked in for the next big setups—follow for precise, real-time trade ideas! 🔔
BTCUSD: Bollinger squeeze paving the way for $160k.Bitcoin remains marginally neutral on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 46.017, MACD = 2013.300, ADX = 45.410) and started last week a Bollinger Bands squeeze process. This squeeze has been present inside the 2.5 year Channel Up every time after it bottomed. Only July-August 2024 made a slightly lower low because the squeeze process turned out to be longer. Even in the event, what follows all Bollinger squeezes is an expansion rally, especially after a 1W STOCH RSI Bullish Cross and the pattern shows that by this September, we can reach $160,000.
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ITS TIME , FINAL WAVE FOR BITCOIN HAS BEGAN The final wave for Bitcoin has officially started; 200k by September 2025 is the call. So far, since October 2024, we have been getting every macro move correct. Going to avoid repeating a lot of content from the previous two TAs; check it out below.
The lower high on the RSI called the momentum shift on this one; it was clear.
December 17th, 2024, calling for a pullback down to 82k for wave 4 to complete; it hit 77k, pretty close.
So last time, I was wrestling with two different dates for a cycle top; the first one was May 2025, and the second was September 2025.
It is clear to me now that mid to late September 2025, Bitcoin will peak at around 200k. It could go slightly higher, but the 185-200k region has a higher outcome.
So, I've been using this small-time Fib, and last time when we hit the 0.618, it was the breakout week for Bitcoin from the long range. We're here again; this week is the big pivot and start of wave 5.
The hash ribbon has confirmed a buy signal, and more importantly, it flashed buy in my Time Fibonacci week. Amazing. If you've been with me for years, you already know that this is the best signal for Bitcoin there is. It is so damn good; this gives so much more weight to my thesis.
Stars seem to align again. They constantly try to shake you out; this is the game. Who is going to fade the hash ribbon buy? It's been the easiest play time and time again.
Seriously, though, for just a moment—are you really going to fade the hash ribbon? :)
BTC Breakout or Breakdown: 83K to 87K or Bust to 73K?BTC’s standing at a fork in the road, and it’s itching to make a move! If it pushes past 83,121, we’re looking at a smooth jump to 84,600—like a quick win you can almost taste. Keep the good vibes going, and 87,000 might just be the big payoff. But hold up—if it stumbles below 81,300, things could get messy. The bears might crash the party, pulling us down to 80K, then 79,900. And if the slide keeps going? We’re talking 74,700, maybe even a rough landing between 73,600 and 73,000.
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
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Can we be optimistic that this will come true?( road to 300k )I might be wrong and this might never happen, but it might come true From a technical perspective!!!
Remmember
Give me some energy !!
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⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Do you think I'm joking ???Now that Bitcoin is returning to the cup-and-handle support, one can expect a strong pump up to 130k . it might happen.
Give me some energy !!
✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
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✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Sell Limit Trade IdeaTRADENATION:BTCUSD Bitcoin has formed a double top pattern, confirmed by a breakdown below 89,199, signalling potential for further downside. Additionally, a bearish flag breakdown in recent sessions suggests continuation lower.
This morning’s gap down highlights market weakness, but a fill of this gap at $83,543 may offer an ideal entry for short positions.
Trade Details
Entry (Sell Limit): 83,543
Stop Loss: 87,992
Take Profit: 70,613
Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.9:1
Key Levels
Resistance:
R1: $83,543 (Entry Point)
R2: $85,819
R3: $88,767
Support:
S1 : 76,590
S2: 70,531
S3: 63,411
Technical & Fundamental Factors
✅ Double Top Formation – Breakdown below 89,199 confirms bearish momentum.
✅ Bearish Flag Breakdown – Indicates continuation of the current downtrend.
✅ Gap Lower – Signals further weakness; gap fill at 83,543 offers a selling opportunity.
⚠️ Smart Money Not Buying – Commercial participants are selling Bitcoin, suggesting a lack of institutional support.
Summary
This setup offers a high-probability short opportunity at 83,543, targeting a move down to 70,613, with a stop at 87,992. The combination of technical breakdowns and weak institutional demand supports a bearish outlook.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
THAT WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT BTC IN 2025Professional Technical Analysis & Trading Plan for BTC/USD (Hypothetical 2025 Data)
---
1. Technical Structure & Key Observations
A. Price Context:
- **Current Price:** ~84,197 (below SMA 81,998).
- **SMA (Simple Moving Average):** 81,998 (likely 200-day SMA, acting as dynamic resistance).
- **Volume:** 52K (low volume suggests consolidation; watch for spikes to confirm breaks).
C. Key Levels (From Data):
- **Resistance:**
- Immediate: 81,998 (SMA).
- Major: 90,000, 100,000, 130,000 (swing highs).
- **Support:**
- Near-term: 74,000 (psychological),
---
2. Advanced Indicator Analysis
A. Momentum (RSI & MACD):**
- **RSI (14):** Likely near 40–45 (neutral-bearish zone). A break below 30 signals oversold; above 55 confirms bullish momentum.
- **MACD:** Bearish crossover possible (signal line above MACD line). Watch for reversal above SMA.
B. Volume Profile:
- **Low Volume (52K):** Indicates weak participation. A surge above 100K on a breakout/breakdown would validate direction.
- **Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP):** If price trades above VWAP, bullish bias strengthens.
---
3. Trading Strategies
Scenario : Bullish Reversal (30% Probability)
- **Trigger:** Daily close above SMA (81,998) with volume >100K.
- **Entry:** Long at 74,500 (confirmation of strength).
- **Targets:**
- TP1: 90,000 (8.5% move).
- TP2: 100,000 (19% move).
- **Stop Loss:** 71,500
---
5. Sentiment & Catalyst Watch
- **Bullish Catalysts:** Institutional ETF inflows, Fed rate cuts, Bitcoin halving momentum.
- **Bearish Risks:** Regulatory crackdowns, exchange hacks, macro recession.
-Conclusion
BTC/USD is at a critical juncture. *Trade the SMA break/breakdown with volume confirmation*, and prioritize risk-reward ratios. Always cross-verify with real-time data and news.
Disclaimer: Hypothetical analysis for educational purposes. Not financial advice.* 🚀
Bitcoin - Where will Bitcoin go?!Bitcoin is trading below the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. The continuation of Bitcoin’s downward trend and its placement in the demand zone will provide us with the opportunity to buy it again.
The continued rise of Bitcoin will also lead to testing of selling transactions from the supply zone. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy in the demand range.
Since March 14, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have maintained a positive trend. For seven consecutive days, these ETFs have recorded net capital inflows without any outflows. This marks the first instance in 2025 of such a consistent streak of inflows into Bitcoin ETFs.
The assets under management (AUM) of actively managed ETFs in the United States have surged over the past two years, surpassing $1 trillion—a more than threefold increase. This remarkable growth indicates a rising investor interest in strategies beyond index-based funds.
Bitcoin had an overall positive week, whereas the S&P 500 and global equity markets suffered declines due to ongoing concerns over tariffs and persistent inflation. The S&P 500 closed the week lower, dropping to $5,580—just 1.2% above its recent low from March 13. Meanwhile, despite experiencing pullbacks, Bitcoin remains 9.3% above its previous low of $77,000, recorded on March 10.
Strategy, following its latest acquisition, now holds 2.41% of the total global Bitcoin supply.Given that a significant portion of Bitcoin has either been lost or remains dormant in wallets, this stake represents nearly 4% of the actively circulating supply.
About a month and a half ago, Eric Trump, son of former President Donald Trump, tweeted that it was the perfect time to buy Ethereum. Since that tweet, however, Ethereum’s price has dropped by approximately 35%. This highlights the risk of making investment decisions solely based on endorsements from well-known individuals.
Trump Media & Technology Group, owned by U.S. President Donald Trump, has announced a partnership with the cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com to launch a range of exchange-traded products (ETPs) and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This includes a multi-crypto ETF (the first of its kind) and ETPs comprising digital assets and securities from various sectors, including the energy industry. Crypto.com will provide the underlying technology, custodial solutions, and crypto asset management services.
In the second half of March, the cryptocurrency market experienced a significant rebound, reigniting optimism among traders. However, historical analysis suggests that the crypto market often moves contrary to mainstream expectations. When bullish sentiment—such as the phrase “To the Moon”—becomes widespread on social media, it may signal an impending price drop. Conversely, when negative sentiments like “Crypto is dead” or “Bitcoin is a scam” become dominant, this could indicate a potential price surge.
Therefore, investors should pay close attention to market sentiment and exercise caution in their decision-making. Recognizing that markets may move against the prevailing consensus can help in formulating more strategic investment approaches.
BTC/USDT: Range-Bound Movement with Rebound Potential from Key SThe BTC/USDT market recently tested last week’s high but pulled back after encountering resistance near the 89,000 level. On the daily timeframe, the latest candle formed a doji, signaling weakening selling pressure.
The price has reached the two-week low, where underlying liquidity may trigger a bounce—especially around the psychological 80,000 level. With the market consolidating after recent sell-offs, a move toward the 85,000 area is possible. A monthly doji close is also anticipated, reflecting the broader indecision. The next upside target is the resistance zone around 84,000
BITCOIN This is why it will make new ATH this year.The simplest explanation is perhaps sometimes the best. In this context, this is a simple yet powerful Bitcoin (BTCUSD) chart, showing why the Bull Cycle hasn't peaked yet and why a new All Time High (ATH) is coming by the end of 2025.
So, this is the 12M time-frame, essentially each BTC candle represents 1 whole year (12 months). If you are familiar with BTC's 4-year Cycles, which we've been discussing regularly and in-depth on this channel, then it makes perfect sense to see the market peak, then decline for 1 year and then spend the remaining 3 making a Bull Cycle that will ultimately peak on the 4th year.
Practically each Cycle so far had 1 year of Bear Cycle and 3 years of Bull Cycle with the 3rd one always making a new All Time High (ATH) towards the end.
1 red candle followed by 3 green ones. Simplistic yet delivering a powerful message that since we are currently on Year 3 of the Bull Cycle, there are far more greater probabilities to end this 12M (1 year) candle in green as well and with a new ATH.
So what do you think? Ae we getting this fat green 2025 yearly candle or this time will be different? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC - Post Weekly Closure UpdateAgain, not an awful lot has changed since last week’s update. We’ve now closed a weekly candle yet again in no man’s land; in fact, one could argue it’s a bearish engulfing candle that closed below the previous week’s level, solidifying further bearish sentiment and likely continuation until key SH has been reclaimed.
Like I mentioned in last week’s update - for now, we’re waiting for 65K–72K, a break of ATH, or at least a reclamation of HTF 🗝️ swings (95K minimum) to jump back into HTF trades. Until then, I’m exploiting LTF/MTF moves.
Another thing to note: Everyone is so fixated on 72K being the potential bottom (if reached). It makes me wonder: will 72K happen soon (it will eventually), and if it does, will it hold? I personally think we’ll see a deeper pullback into the 2W demand at 68K, or potentially the 1W PHOB at 65K, which I’ve mentioned several times.
On LTF/MTF - I’ve been updating every trade, and they’ve been playing out quite well so far. We failed to hold the 23H HOB at 83K, thereby breaking below the MTF SL at 83130, and now the same level is acting as an obstacle to higher prices. If accepted above, I expect 84K, potentially 86K, before a possible downward continuation.
For us to see higher prices on MTF, we need to reclaim 88744, SH, to target 96K - potentially the 2D OB at 100K, which is also a psychological level and confluent with the volume drop in VRVP, as shown in the image above. If 88744 is reclaimed, followed by a pullback into newly formed liquidity or BB, I’d then look for a long to the above-mentioned levels.
As long as we’re below 88,744, downward pressure remains.
Bearish drop?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 61.8% Fibonacci support.
Pivot: 84,019.80
1st Support: 72,880.23
1st Resistance: 91,396.07
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
The Road to $100k BitcoinBitcoin is most likely forming a left-translated 60-day cycle .
Expect Bitcoin to trend downward for the next month, making a lower low in this 60-day cycle and fully scaring the market.
People will start screaming “bear market” and panic-sell their coins to market makers, institutions, and patient investors.
Once that’s done, Bitcoin will resume its bull market, heading toward a market top in Q2/Q3 2025.
This would mirror 2021’s bull market behavior, align with the 4-year Bitcoin cycle, and leave enough time for the market to fully reset by late 2026.
Update about my previous warning about a crash of the SPX500📉 SPX500 Major Correction: Scenario 1 or 2?
In my previous analysis, I explained a scenario that could mimic the 2022 crash (Scenario 1):
🔗
However, the price action dropped much faster than in 2022, accelerating the correction.
Now, on the daily timeframe, we already have a bullish MACD crossover, signaling a potential bullish trend for several days:
🔗
Could This Invalidate the Bearish Trend?
✅ Yes, absolutely.
In June 2023 (Scenario 2), a similar situation occurred:
A bearish MACD reset was interrupted mid-course by a violent dump
This triggered a strong rebound, breaking through resistance levels
There are now strong signs that Scenario 2 might play out again.
What Does This Mean for Crypto & TradFi?
📈 If this bullish reversal holds, it could sync Crypto & TradFi, with both gaining bullish momentum on the weekly timeframe, peaking around May 2025.
Two Possible Outcomes:
1️⃣ Scenario 1 – The reversal collapses, and the correction continues 📉
2️⃣ Scenario 2 – The reversal holds, leading to a rally 📈
Let’s monitor this closely to see which scenario unfolds.
🔍 DYOR!
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