BTC 4h timeframe: LONGOn the 4-hour timeframe, BTC appears to be offering a promising short-term opportunity to enter a long position. Several factors align to support this hypothesis:
1. Correction After Sharp Decline: The market seems to be stabilizing after a significant downward move, suggesting potential for a recovery.
2. Bollinger Bands: Price action indicates proximity to the lower band, often signaling an oversold condition and potential bounce.
3. 50-Day Moving Average: Acting as a dynamic support level, the 50-day MA adds confidence to the idea of a rebound from this zone.
Given these technical signals, I believe it’s an opportune moment to test the waters with a calculated trade.
Here’s the plan:
• Margin: $30
• Leverage: 20x
• Position Size: $700
While the setup looks promising, it’s essential to manage risk carefully, as BTC’s volatility can always surprise. Let’s see if the bounce plays out as expected!
Btc-bitcoin
Bitcoin breakout as USDT.D breaks down, is it happening now?Refer to previous analysis in links below.
As you can see USDT.D is now trying to break below the trendline that caused 3 flash crashes in a row. Will it be confirmed by the end of the day's candle or will this be a bull trap and the candle wicks back above the trendline and then a flash crash? We watch and see. Easy trade for both short and long here with stop loss that cuts off the loser and the winner runs.
Don't forget to smash that rocket like button or give me your take in the comments below.
#Bitcoin $BTCUSD The Wedge dilemma.CRYPTO:BTCUSD Key Levels:
1. 109k
2. 150k
3. 85k
4. 75k
CRYPTO:BTCUSD is currently trying to break a historical, old and respectful channel's upper wedge. Technically speaking, this wedge is a very significant level where it has been tested 5 times so far "illustrated on the chart". The last 2 attempts have shown that the wedge is still valid.
Scenario A:
Euphoria and institutions buying pressure will keep the price trading close enough to the wedge until it breaks out where it unlocks a new uncharted zone extended to the next psychological mark 150k.
Scenario B:
Price falls back to the nearest visible and massive demand zone around the 75k mark.
I lean on a correction to the closest demand zone around the 75k mark.
Corrections:
It is worth noting that every time the price tests this wedge it causes a significant correction. "Check the illustrated table on the chart".
Conclusion:
Closing above 116k unlocks an uncharted zone to 150k
Trading below the historical wedge will lead eventually to a retest of the 75k price level.
#BTC #BITCOIN #CRYPTO #ANALYSIS #AHMEDMESBAH #SUPPLYANDDEMAND #BLOCKCHAIN #ETHEREUM
Critical Metals Corp Unveils $500M Bitcoin Reserve InitiativeIn a ground-breaking move, Critical Metals Corp (Nasdaq: CRML), a leader in mining development, has announced its bold decision to adopt Bitcoin (BTC) as a primary asset in its treasury management strategy. This initiative, aimed at acquiring up to $500 million worth of Bitcoin, marks a pivotal moment for cryptocurrency adoption in the corporate world, particularly within the critical minerals sector.
Strategic Shift to Bitcoin
Critical Metals Corp, known for its work in critical minerals and next-generation technologies through its Tanbreez Greenland Rare Earth Mine and Wolfsberg Lithium Project, has approved a comprehensive Bitcoin treasury strategy. The initiative is supported by a $500 million convertible note financing plan led by JBA Asset Management. The first tranche of $100 million is secured, with subsequent tranches totaling $400 million subject to specific conditions.
The notes will be convertible into common stock at $6.00 per share, with warrants convertible at $7.00. This innovative financial strategy not only diversifies the company’s asset portfolio but also positions it as the first Nasdaq-listed critical minerals company to integrate Bitcoin into its treasury.
Tony Sage, Executive Chairman and CEO, emphasized the dual benefits of this strategy: “Incorporating a Bitcoin allocation to our treasury management strategy is an innovative approach that we believe will strengthen our balance sheet and create long-term shareholder value.” Sage also highlighted Bitcoin’s potential as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement, aligning with broader governmental initiatives to adopt Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s Role in Critical Metals’ Vision
The move comes at a time when Bitcoin’s role as a store of value and inflation hedge is gaining traction globally. Critical Metals’ strategy not only secures its financial position but also strengthens its alignment with western government initiatives, including recent advocacy for a national Bitcoin stockpile by President Trump. By adopting Bitcoin, the company enhances its appeal as a reliable partner in secure supply chains for critical minerals.
The company plans to execute its Bitcoin acquisition strategy based on market dynamics and cash flow requirements, maintaining flexibility to adapt to evolving circumstances.
Technical Analysis of Bitcoin
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $104,000, down 1.83% from its recent all-time high (ATH). Despite the slight retracement, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 51, indicating a neutral stance with potential for further movement.
Key technical levels to watch include:
- Support: $101,000, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
- Resistance: A breakout above the one-month high of $115,000 could propel Bitcoin to $150,000 if bullish factors persist.
This retracement offers a consolidation period, often viewed as healthy for sustained upward momentum. Should Bitcoin hold above the $101,000 support, it could attract new buyers, fueling another rally. Conversely, a failure to hold this level may lead to a dip, testing lower support zones.
The Broader Impact
Critical Metals’ decision to integrate Bitcoin into its treasury highlights the growing institutional acceptance of cryptocurrency. By aligning its financial strategy with Bitcoin, the company not only protects against inflation but also positions itself as a pioneer in blending traditional industries with cutting-edge financial assets.
This move, coupled with Bitcoin’s recent price performance, underscores the increasing role of digital assets in global finance. With institutions like MicroStrategy and Critical Metals leading the charge, Bitcoin’s journey to mainstream adoption continues to accelerate.
Conclusion
Critical Metals Corp’s $500 million Bitcoin reserve initiative is a testament to the evolving financial landscape, where digital assets are becoming integral to corporate strategies. As Bitcoin hovers near its ATH, the strategic timing of this announcement adds to the growing confidence in cryptocurrency’s future. With a disciplined approach and robust financial backing, Critical Metals is not only reshaping its treasury management but also setting a precedent for others in the industry.
When Doing Nothing Is the Hardest TradeSometimes, the most difficult decision in trading is deciding not to trade. Today is one of those days.
The current market conditions are complex. On one hand, I see a high probability of a correction. But on the other, the market is running hot, and shorting doesn’t feel like the best option. Volatility in BTC is narrowing, and volumes are steadily declining—clear signs that the market is building up for a decisive move in either direction.
In such a scenario, shorting becomes exceptionally challenging. The tightening range suggests the market is preparing to break out, but the direction remains uncertain. Jumping in prematurely could mean getting caught on the wrong side of the move.
So, today is a no-trade day. Sometimes, sitting on the sidelines and waiting for clarity is the smartest move a trader can make. After all, patience is a virtue in markets as much as it is in life.
Hitting The BTC All Time High Trend Line Now.................... Bitcoin is trying to break through its all-time high trend line. Will it do so, or will it be rejected and throw us into the Alt season? So far many grafts are pointing to this as at least the first peak pushing BTC back down. Others are saying the Trump Family Coins $Trump is sucking up all the money. Well, see what happens, but it seems like the time to start moving investments over to the Alts so you're not left behind buying the top. I assumed BTC would top out at $160K this season but signs are pointing to possibly lower. AS BTC gets stronger and bigger we will get less of an explosion in price increase. Trading off for more stability in price over time to form a stable value.
GOLD (XAUUSD) Extraordinary SELL ComingGold (XAU/USD) Trading Signal and Analysis
Current Price: 2,743 USD
Sentiment: Bullish momentum continues despite potential volatility linked to macroeconomic factors, including Trump's return and increased demand for safe-haven assets by financial institutions.
Technical Outlook:
The price is currently testing a high zone between 2,743 and 2,751, approaching the upper boundary of its recent bullish range.
A retracement is anticipated, targeting at least 30% of Fibonacci retracement, aligning with a move toward the lower band of the Bollinger Band.
Signal:
Sell Zone: Enter short positions between 2,743 and 2,751.
Target: Aim for a price level near 2,670 on higher timeframes.
Stop-Loss: Set a stop-loss according to your portfolio risk tolerance. Position it slightly above 2,760 to account for potential breakouts.
Analysis and Strategy:
Macro Factors: Bullish pressure is driven by demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. However, retracement is expected due to market corrections and profit-taking.
Technical Indicators:
Anticipated correction aligns with Fibonacci 30% retracement.
Bollinger Bands suggest a possible pullback towards the lower band as price reverts to the mean.
Support:
Support Zones: 2,670, with a minor level at 2,680.
Resistance Zones: 2,751–2,760.
Recommendation: Use position sizing and stop-loss placement that align with your portfolio's risk management strategy. Adjust take-profit targets if momentum extends the retracement.
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Is BTC ready to explode or should we brace for a deeper drop?The pressure is mounting! Are we about to witness a massive breakout, or should we prepare for a deeper correction? The BTCUSDT chart is coiling into a elliott pattern, a classic bullish setup—but remember, trading is never guaranteed, and the market loves to test us! Here’s the full breakdown of what we’re seeing right now:
💎#BTC previously enjoyed a strong rally and made new ATH but due to #TRUMP not mentioning any words for crypto we have seen a massive sell pressure.
💎But according to elliott wave count, we are heading towards 3rd impulsive wave targeting 120-125k .
💎After that we can see a slight pullback making a 4th corrective wave
💎And then we can see #Bitcoin to final All-Time-High making at 130k level most probably
Stay patient, and always wait for confirmation before taking any action. Discipline is the key to long-term success!
BTC CMEAfter touching the weekly BISI, the price dropped behind the stops in the shorts, the daily BIs became an inversion and gave support to the price without pushing it down.
If this is a Екгьз rally, we will see how the price will react within 4 hours, a selling pattern is formed, there is inefficiency, a block of refusal is possible, which can lower the price to 0.5 range
Will this move be to fill the weekly BISI again or will it continue to send orders up?
Now those who entered long have opened positions, I think the price will follow their stops
Bearish Bitcoin All 2025???Those little pushes you see now? They might be the last ones. Bitcoin could trend downward until 2026, with a potential slight reversal in October. The best part is that Altcoins, especially XRP, might take center stage and have their moment.
At first, I was projecting Bitcoin to hit 75k, but now, my target has shifted to 60k…possibly even 55k by 2026 before any new highs (125k). Let’s see how it plays out…I could be wrong. I’m holding BTC too so…🤷🏽♂️
US INAUGURATION & BTCAs the second Trump era begins, this is how Bitcoin looks:
- BTC new ATH in the run up to inauguration and highest ever weekly close. I believe this was in anticipation for Trumps acceptance speech to mention Bitcoin and or the strategic reserve. That did not happen and so we've seen a selloff wick down to Midpoint with price settling at 0.75 in the range.
Typically, wicks get filled and so I would like to see price steadily reach the midpoint and then begin to show some strength before looking to go LONG. That all changes if we see a crypto specific executive order signed in the coming hours/days we should then see a move back to the highs.
- 4H 200 EMA is always an important level for the Bullrun, the vast majority of altcoins are under the 4H 200 EMA thanks to liquidity being drawn out into BTC and Solana memecoin craze.
- Bitcoin is still leading the greater market but I do expect rotation into strong US based altcoins within the next few weeks going into the later part of Q1. Some key alts that fit that category are SOL, SUI, LINK, ONDO, XRP, ENS, and many more.
It's important to remember this is a marathon not a sprint and I fully expect progress to be made but it may not be linear, until we have broken out of the range in the chart and move into a clear trend environment BTC should be treated as such by trading instead of buying and holding.
20/01/25 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $106,467.97
Last weeks low: $89,292.15
Midpoint: $97,880.06
The Trump era begins...
January 20th 2025 is the date in which America sees its new Republican administration take office. An administration that has promised to embrace crypto instead of demonise it, one that wants the future of crypto to be built in the US, so far Trumps picks for SEC chairman and other important related roles have reflected that pro-crypto belief.
However, launching a $TRUMP memecoin and the subsequent $MELANIA memecoins just moments before inauguration in my opinion is a very bad start. Not only did the launch of TRUMP draw out liquidity from the altcoin market, it also damages the broader market just from an optics point of view. The general publics perception of crypto is it's full of scams, pump and dumps etc so to try and change the general publics mind the answer is to... Launch a memecoin...
Now I'm fully aware Donald Trump himself probably has very little to do with this, just like most celebrity memecoins but I just don't see how this is a positive start for the administration in proving their pro-crypto stance.
Bitcoin did have its highest weekly close of all time @ $106,500, which was $2000 higher than the previous ATH. +20% move from weekly low to high in anticipation for the potential Bitcoin strategic reserve announcement. Avoiding a SFP similar to that of week commencing January 6th will be a priority for BTC, we are in a rangebound environment so a SFP can have the potential to drop back down and undo a lot of the previous weeks progress. Until BTC breaks the rangebound environment and begins a trending move I will treat it as such.
For this week I'm keeping a close eye on the Liberty Financial portfolio (ETH,AAVE,LINK,ONDO,ENS) & US based majors (SOL,SUI,AVAX, ADA, STX,INJ) etc. The play is definitely coins that will be directly influenced by this new US administration, at least for now I cannot see any liquidity go towards any other coins for the time being.
Bitcoin - Bitcoin, waiting for Trump's new policies!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the four-hour time frame and is trading in its ascending channel. Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk off sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline.
Bitcoin's downward correction and its placement in the demand zone will allow us to buy it. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important.
Bullish signs are abundant in the cryptocurrency market, as investors observe various factors that favor this sector beyond Bitcoin. While some analysts predict 2025 as the year of altcoins, JPMorgan argues that Bitcoin will remain an attractive option.
Market experts point to cyclical trends that could boost altcoins such as Solana and Ripple. These two tokens experienced significant growth following Donald Trump’s election victory, driven by expectations of greater support from the new administration. However, JPMorgan highlights four reasons why investors should approach the altcoin market cautiously.
First, future policies remain speculative, with uncertainty surrounding their timing and impact. Although reduced regulatory oversight may improve sentiment across the industry, there is no guarantee that interest in decentralized finance will grow substantially.
JPMorgan noted that it is still unclear whether these new regulations will allow the crypto ecosystem to integrate into traditional financial systems or if public blockchains like Ethereum will play a central role in the future.
Additionally, the bank stated that ambitious plans for crypto reserves in the United States and beyond are likely to focus solely on Bitcoin. Certain U.S. states have already proposed legislation to hold Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, a policy Washington might adopt during Trump’s second term.
Second, Bitcoin continues to dominate the cryptocurrency fund space. JPMorgan predicts that retail and institutional investors will keep investing in Bitcoin spot ETFs, supported by Bitcoin’s appeal as digital gold. According to a Bernstein report, Bitcoin is expected to replace gold as the primary store of value in the global economy over the next decade.
Bitcoin accounted for 35% of the total $78 billion inflows into the crypto market in 2024, according to JPMorgan. By contrast, Ethereum spot ETFs, launched in July 2024, attracted only $2.4 billion. The bank also forecasts that future ETFs for altcoins like Solana may see limited capital inflows.
Third, the Bitcoin network is evolving to rival tokens with more specific use cases, such as Ethereum. Historically, Bitcoin was perceived as a buy-and-hold asset with limited functionality. However, developers have been expanding its capabilities, and new smart contract features will help it compete with rivals.
JPMorgan also stated that large institutions might overlook public blockchains like Ethereum in favor of private blockchains offering customized solutions for institutional investors.
Fourth, new altcoin projects require time to mature and prove their utility. The bank explained that decentralized initiatives often attract initial user attention but then face declining activity and token value. To achieve sustainability, these projects must demonstrate their long-term functional benefits.
JPMorgan cautioned investors against expecting a repeat of the 2021 crypto bull market. During that period, projects succeeded through token distribution, but the current industry is more focused on blockchain capability development.
The bank further noted that MicroStrategy is still halfway through its plan to invest $42 billion in Bitcoin. This software company has made a name for itself by accumulating vast Bitcoin reserves through equity and debt financing.
For the first time in history, over 20% of total spot trading volume is conducted on decentralized exchanges (DEXs).
Standard Chartered Bank warned that if the $90,000 support level breaks, Bitcoin could drop to around $80,000. The bank highlighted that Bitcoin ETF purchases have stabilized since the U.S. presidential election, and Jerome Powell’s policy shifts at the Federal Reserve on December 18 have increased selling pressure on digital assets.
The bank cautioned that widespread panic could amplify these sell-offs, potentially affecting other cryptocurrencies.Nevertheless, such a price drop could present a long-term accumulation opportunity.
Bitcoin at Resistance: Expanding Triangle Hold=>Last Chance!!!Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) is moving in the Resistance zone($104,700-$101,920) , near the upper lines (resistance role) of the Expanding Triangle Pattern , Monthly Resistance(1) , and Time Reversal Zone(TRZ) .
In terms of Classic Technical Analysis , Bitcoin seems to be moving in an Expanding Triangle Pattern during the last 30 days . If the upper line is validly broken, this pattern will be failed.
According to the theory of Elliott waves , it seems that Bitcoin can move in an Expanding Flat(ABC/3-3-5) in the 4-hour time frame . Bitcoin is currently completing microwave 5 of the main wave C . If Bitcoin touches $107,000 , the possibility of this corrective pattern being failed is very high.
I expect Bitcoin to drop to at least $100,000 .
Note: If Bitcoin goes below $107,000, we can expect BTC to make a new All-time High(ATH).
Note: There is also the possibility of Bulltrap formation.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 4-hour time frame⏰.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
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TRUMP'S INAUGURATION → $120.000 NEXTAs illustrated, I'm trying to visualize the possible outcome for the next couple of days.
Anything could happen, but the more "obvious" sentiment is bullish to "very" bullish.
The targets of $110,000 - $120,000 are very realistic within just a few hours into Trump's inauguration.
Now, one must expect anything during the most volatile conditions, and a possible liquidation near ATH or even at new ATH MIGHT occur.
WHY? ... Honestly... it's just one of those " too good to be true " type of things that I just simply can't ignore the probabilities that are involved in this game. It's not a crazy theory about liquidity nor am I trying to go against what we all expect and desire for BTC (which is to continue breaking ATH and beyond)..
I'm simply being realistic about the different scenarios during my projected outcome.
Hopefully, we get a MASSIVE BULLISH Daily bullish candle; right? (did I say bullish?)... but... hey... it's 2025.
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GOOD LUCK!