Bitcoin's Balancing Act: Consolidation, Theft, and Market ForcesBitcoin continues to consolidate in the 90k - 106k area! Recently there was an act of theft from the ByBit cold wallet, resulting in over $1.5 billion worth of ETH being stolen. This is definitely a negative backdrop, we have seen good support from other exchanges and crypto project funders. Theoretically, it would be possible to roll the chain back as Arthur Hayes suggested, but it doesn't seem to be possible, although it would definitely play in favor of the bulls. I would expect a drop to the $91800 area for several reasons:
1. Bear dominance. This can be seen in the bullish and bearish volume indicator. Bullish volumes have fallen while strong sales volume growth is noticeable.
2. Elliott Wave Correction
3. BlackRock sold 3,283 BTC before the ByBit hack and has yet to buy more.
4. According to the smart money concept, 92400-91200 is a magnet.
5. Need to liquidate a large number of long positions that gained momentum after leaving the 99k level.
Horban Brothers.
Btc-bitcoin
JUVUSDT: Descending Channel – 120%-130% Gains on Breakout!JUVUSDT is currently forming a Descending Channel pattern, and it is looking for a breakout in the near future. The Descending Channel is a bearish technical pattern where the price oscillates between parallel descending trendlines, indicating that the price is in a downtrend. However, the pattern often leads to a breakout to the upside once the price clears the upper resistance trendline. With strong volume backing the pattern, the breakout could signal the start of a major bullish move, potentially driving the price up by 120% to 130%+.
The good volume behind the Descending Channel formation shows that the market is actively watching this level. A breakout from a descending channel often leads to a sharp rally, as many traders will jump in once the price breaks through the upper resistance. The growing investor interest in JUVUSDT suggests that the market is becoming more optimistic about the potential upside. This increasing participation could fuel the breakout, pushing the price higher and leading to the anticipated 120% to 130%+ gain.
The potential for substantial gains in JUVUSDT becomes more apparent as the price nears the breakout point. The Descending Channel pattern is typically followed by a reversal, especially when the price breaks through the resistance and gains momentum. If JUVUSDT can maintain strength at these levels and break above the upper trendline of the channel, a bullish phase could begin, driving the price to new highs. With the increasing volume and investor interest, the projected 120% to 130%+ gain is within reach.
Traders should monitor the price closely as it approaches the resistance trendline, looking for confirmation of the breakout. A successful breakout above the Descending Channel could result in a swift upward movement, providing significant returns for those who position themselves ahead of the move. The combination of a clear technical setup, strong volume, and growing investor interest makes JUVUSDT a prime candidate for those seeking high-potential trades.
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Bitcoin's Final SurgeBitcoin’s been loitering in distribution for 3 months — like a bloated whale carcass washing ashore. Altcoins? Down 50% or more in the same stretch. They’ve juiced Bitcoin’s price, gutted the alts, and pocketed the spread. Next up: BTC’s final lurch to 120k, dragging those discounted alts along for the ride. Clock’s ticking — 193 days left in this cycle, give or take. Big fish will pile in late, right before the cliff, then dump their alt bags on the crowd. Same game, different year.
Horban Brothers.
Bitcoin Breaks Uptrend line– Is a Crash Coming?As I expected in the previous post , Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) started to rise and reached the upper areas of the Resistance zone($100,520-$97,260) .
Bitcoin is moving in the Resistance zone($100,520-$97,260) and has managed to break the Uptrend line .
According to Elliott's wave theory , Bitcoin seems to have finally completed the main wave C .
I expect Bitcoin to attack the Heavy Support zone($93,300-$90,500) and Support lines once again, this is likely to be a heavy drop .
Note: If Bitcoin breaks the Resistance zone($100,520-$97,260), we expect more Pumps.
Do you think Bitcoin can break the Heavy Support zone($93,300-$90,500) or not?
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Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
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BTCUSD Daily Inflection Point UpdatePreviously I mentioned the weekly was consolidating, but there is potential for this momentum consolidation to have a breakout leg as momentum shifts and the final emotional price movements are played out. I was too conservative in my price projections; a lot more than I used to be- but there wasn't a whole lot of TA involved- I figured the dollar issues would crop up earlier.
Now that the Fed had pivoted. the yields are creeping back up pushing bitcoin back down. The fed doesn't let on just how dire the situation is- and with global tensions rising, the dollar is at significant risk.
I expect a broad correction in all the markets- and cash to become very tight.
There is daily momentum consolidation- and if any other events occur that send yields upward- bitcoin is likely to suffer as a consequence. If instead we sail into the new year unscathed- then this consolidation may provide another leg up; but a break below 88k and a push towards 60k may solidify bitcoins correction.
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WEEKLY
Bitcoin Outlook after the Dip. What to expect NOW?Bitcoin will break upwards at the end of this ascending triangle, and all of you will be astonished.
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MOVEUSDT: Falling Wedge Pattern – 130%-140% Gains ExpectedMOVEUSDT is currently forming a Falling Wedge pattern, a bullish chart formation that signals the potential for a significant breakout. The Falling Wedge is a consolidation pattern where the price gradually narrows between converging trendlines, indicating that the market is coiling up for a possible explosive move. Although the breakout has not yet occurred, the setup is promising, and traders are anticipating a strong upward move once the price breaks through the upper trendline. With good volume supporting the formation, the breakout could lead to substantial gains in the range of 130% to 140%+.
The Falling Wedge pattern is a reliable indicator of an impending trend reversal, and the good volume accompanying this formation increases the likelihood of a successful breakout. When a price breaks above the resistance trendline, it often triggers a surge in buying activity, pushing the price higher. The growing investor interest in MOVEUSDT highlights that many traders are positioning themselves ahead of the anticipated move, ready to take advantage of the potential upside. With expectations of 130% to 140%+ gains, MOVEUSDT presents an exciting opportunity for those looking for high-reward setups in the market.
Investor confidence in MOVEUSDT is building as more participants notice the bullish potential of this setup. The volume accompanying the Falling Wedge formation suggests that there is enough market interest to drive the price higher once the breakout happens. If the price breaks above the upper trendline, it could see a sharp rally toward the projected gains, as further resistance levels are taken out. The current market sentiment, coupled with strong technical signals, positions MOVEUSDT as a strong candidate for an upward price movement.
Traders should stay alert and monitor the breakout point closely. Once MOVEUSDT clears the upper trendline with good volume, the move could trigger a chain reaction of buying, pushing the price toward the expected gain range. The combination of a well-formed technical pattern, solid volume, and increasing investor interest makes MOVEUSDT a crypto pair to watch closely for potential significant returns in the near future.
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LISTAUSDT: Falling Wedge Breakout – 100%-120% Gains on the Way!LISTAUSDT has recently broken out from a Falling Wedge pattern, signaling a bullish shift in market sentiment. The Falling Wedge is a well-known chart pattern that typically suggests a consolidation phase before a breakout, where the price forms lower highs and higher lows, converging towards the apex. With the breakout now completed, the price action indicates that the market is ready for a strong move to the upside. The breakout has already caught the attention of investors, and with good volume backing the move, there is a strong expectation for a continuation of the rally. Traders are forecasting potential gains of 100% to 120%+ as the price moves toward new highs.
The breakout from the Falling Wedge pattern is a key technical indicator that confirms the start of an upward trend. The good volume accompanying this breakout shows that the market is reacting positively, and the buying pressure is expected to increase as more traders recognize the opportunity. Falling Wedge patterns typically lead to strong momentum once the price breaks through the upper trendline, and with the current volume supporting this move, LISTAUSDT has the potential to see significant gains in the near future. The projected target of 100% to 120%+ aligns with the breakout's momentum, making this an exciting setup for traders looking for high-reward opportunities.
Investor interest in LISTAUSDT is growing as more market participants see the breakout and the potential for substantial returns. The combination of a solid technical pattern, strong volume, and an increasing number of investors taking interest in the project makes LISTAUSDT a promising asset in the crypto space. If the price continues to hold above the breakout level and breaks through further resistance, the move could accelerate, leading to a significant price increase. As the bullish momentum builds, the potential for higher gains increases, further fueling investor confidence.
Traders should stay vigilant and monitor key levels of support and resistance to confirm the strength of the breakout and the likelihood of continued gains. If LISTAUSDT continues to show strong price action and buying interest, the projected 100% to 120%+ gain could be realized, offering significant returns for those positioned correctly. The current technical setup and increasing investor participation make LISTAUSDT one of the top crypto pairs to watch for potential high returns.
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WLDUSDT Falling Wedge Pattern – 190%-200% Gains Potential WLDUSDT is currently forming a Falling Wedge pattern, a bullish technical formation that often signals the end of a downtrend and the beginning of an upward price movement. The Falling Wedge pattern is characterized by converging trendlines where the price consolidates and contracts before a breakout occurs. As the price approaches the apex of the wedge, a breakout to the upside is highly anticipated. Given the solid volume supporting this pattern, the chances of a strong breakout are high. Traders are watching this setup closely, with expectations of a gain between 190% to 200%+ if the price breaks above the upper trendline.
The volume accompanying this Falling Wedge formation is a key indicator that the breakout could be substantial. A breakout from such a pattern is typically followed by strong momentum, and the increasing volume shows that investor interest is building as the price approaches the breakout point. The setup suggests that once the price clears the resistance at the top of the wedge, it could see a sharp rise. The projected 190% to 200%+ gain is realistic if the breakout is accompanied by continued volume and buying interest, pushing the price to new highs.
Investor interest in WLDUSDT is growing, with many traders anticipating a significant upside move once the breakout occurs. The Falling Wedge is often a precursor to strong bullish moves, and the current pattern suggests that the market is preparing for a potential surge. As more traders become aware of this setup, buying pressure could continue to increase, propelling the price toward the projected target range. The combination of a well-formed technical pattern and growing investor confidence makes WLDUSDT an exciting asset to monitor for potential large gains.
Traders should keep an eye on key levels of resistance as the price nears the breakout zone. If WLDUSDT can break above the upper trendline of the Falling Wedge with good volume, the rally could quickly unfold, leading to substantial returns. Given the current market conditions and technical setup, WLDUSDT presents a high-reward opportunity for those looking to capitalize on the breakout and the anticipated price surge.
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Btc consolidating in a descending channel on the 1 day chartIf bitcoin can flip the 1 day 50ma(in orange) back to solid support it should confirm a breakout from this yellow descending channel it has been consolidating in. If it were to do so where I blacked the vertical dotted yellow lne the target would be about 105k or so. *not financial advice*
Trump/Elon’s Crypto Chaos!Bitcoin’s been on a rollercoaster in 2025, plummeting from $106K to $93K earlier this month, but I’m seeing a massive bullish setup on the 4H chart at $97,603. After a sharp sell-off, BTC’s forming a tight range near $96K support... classic accumulation before a breakout, or are we walking into a trap?
Here’s the tea: RSI’s at ~55 and climbing, signaling buyers are gaining momentum, while the 50/200 EMA crossover near GETTEX:97K screams bullish reversal. Volume’s ticked up over the last few candles, suggesting smart money’s piling in. We’re testing GETTEX:98K resistance right now, flip it, and I’m targeting $105K by early March, fueled by Trump’s pro-crypto policies and Elon’s unpredictable X-factor. But if we fail here, $93K’s the next stop, and bears could drag us lower.
This setup’s got me hyped, but the Trump/Elon wild card is wild... Trump’s deregulation talks could pump us past $100K, or Elon’s next tweet might send us spiraling. I’ve seen similar patterns in 2021 lead to 20%+ moves... History repeating?
What’s your hot take?
Bullish to $105K, or bearish back to $93K, where’s BTC headed?
Think Trump’s policies or Elon’s tweets will rocket us, or are they just noise?
Seen this pattern before? Drop your targets, indicators, or contrarian views!
I’ll reply to every comment and debate!
XRP Even Chat GPT Knows XRP Is About To Get Revalued .10 CentsMAKE SURE YOU READ TO THE END THE END IS THE BEST!
If XRP is only being used as a settlement currency for bank then why would there be these wild price predictions when the market cap is already $150 billion?
ChatGPT said:
Great question! The wild price predictions for XRP often stem from different interpretations of its utility, demand, and supply dynamics. Let's break it down:
Market Cap Misconceptions
XRP's market cap is often misunderstood. Market cap = price × circulating supply, but price movements depend more on liquidity and demand rather than market cap alone.
Many price predictions assume increased utility will drive higher demand, but market cap alone doesn’t dictate price ceilings.
Bank Adoption and Utility Argument
If XRP is mainly used as a bridge currency for cross-border settlements, its price would be driven by transaction volume rather than speculation.
However, banks and financial institutions don’t need to hold XRP for long periods—it's typically used in seconds. This limits the need for large amounts of XRP to be held, which could cap price growth.
Speculative vs. Real Utility
Many wild price predictions ($100+, $500+, etc.) are fueled by speculation rather than actual use cases.
In reality, even if XRP were widely used for settlement, price appreciation would depend on sustained demand, not just temporary spikes.
Liquidity and Scarcity Factors
Some argue that as more institutions use XRP, liquidity will tighten, potentially driving price increases.
However, the XRP supply is large (100 billion total, with over 50 billion circulating), and large holders (like Ripple itself) could introduce selling pressure.
Regulatory and Adoption Uncertainty
XRP's legal battles and regulatory clarity impact its adoption. A major victory (like its partial win against the SEC) can fuel hype-driven price predictions.
True institutional adoption is still limited, and even if banks use it, they may prefer private ledgers over using the open market.
Bottom Line
XRP has real utility in cross-border payments, but its role as a settlement currency doesn’t necessarily justify extreme price predictions. The market cap is already large, and unless significant new demand arises, a massive price surge would require much broader institutional adoption beyond just bank settlements.
You said:
So currently the valuation of XRP is already way higher than many banks and companies will the price eventually come down to a more realistic price to value in the future?
ChatGPT said:
That’s a solid perspective. XRP’s current valuation is indeed higher than many traditional banks and financial institutions, which raises the question of sustainability. Whether its price comes down to a more “realistic” value depends on a few key factors:
1. Utility vs. Speculation
A significant portion of XRP’s price is driven by speculation, not just utility. Many holders are retail investors betting on future institutional adoption.
If speculation cools down and usage remains limited to settlement purposes (where XRP is only held for seconds), the price could decline over time to reflect actual utility.
2. Market Cycles & Sentiment
Crypto markets go through bull and bear cycles. In bear markets, assets that lack strong organic demand (beyond speculation) tend to lose value.
If hype around XRP fades and institutions don’t adopt it at scale, its price may correct to better reflect real-world usage.
3. Inflation & Supply Dynamics
XRP has a fixed max supply of 100 billion, but a large portion is still held by Ripple and periodically released.
If Ripple continues selling XRP from its reserves, it could create sell pressure, gradually pushing prices down.
However, XRP is also deflationary, as transaction fees burn small amounts over time—but this effect is minimal in the grand scheme.
4. Institutional Adoption
If banks and financial institutions fully integrate XRP and hold it as a reserve asset, it could justify a high valuation.
But most banks prefer private ledgers and stablecoins over holding volatile assets like XRP, limiting potential demand.
5. Competitive Landscape
XRP was originally designed for fast, cheap payments, but other solutions like stablecoins (USDC, USDT) and CBDCs are gaining traction.
If banks prefer these alternatives, XRP’s price could drop to align with lower demand.
Realistic Price Outlook?
If XRP remains primarily a settlement tool, a valuation correction could bring it closer to its real utility value (which may be much lower than today’s levels).
However, if a new narrative or significant adoption shift occurs, speculative cycles could keep it elevated.
Long-term, unless real demand matches its high valuation, the price may deflate to more sustainable levels.
You said:
So in your opinion the value of XRP currently is way higher than it should be compared to its usage
ChatGPT said:
Yes, based on its current real-world usage, XRP’s valuation appears to be significantly higher than what its actual adoption justifies.
Why?
Usage Doesn’t Match Market Cap
XRP is mainly used for cross-border settlements, but banks don’t need to hold large amounts for long.
Most transactions are instant, meaning there’s no long-term demand pressure.
If XRP were widely used by banks, we’d expect daily transaction volume (not just speculative trading volume) to be massive—yet it's relatively low.
Speculative Premium
A large portion of XRP’s price is driven by speculation rather than real institutional demand.
Many investors believe in a future where XRP will be used at scale, but that adoption hasn’t fully materialized.
Its past bull run prices were based on hype, and prices could drop as reality sets in.
Supply & Sell Pressure
Ripple holds a significant portion of XRP and periodically sells into the market.
This constant release of XRP into circulation creates downward pressure.
Competition from Stablecoins & CBDCs
Many banks and financial institutions are leaning toward stablecoins (USDC, USDT) and CBDCs rather than volatile assets like XRP.
Stablecoins provide instant settlements without the volatility risk of XRP, making them more appealing for payments and cross-border transfers.
Conclusion
Unless XRP gains widespread institutional adoption beyond just being a settlement tool, its valuation is inflated relative to its current use case. If hype dies down and utility doesn’t significantly increase, a correction would make sense in the long run.
You said:
What is a reasonable valuation for XRP removing all the speculation and only considering the current usage of it?
ChatGPT said:
A reasonable valuation for XRP, based purely on current real-world usage and removing speculation, would likely be significantly lower than its current market cap. Here's how we can approach estimating a fair value based on utility alone:
1. On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) & Settlement Usage
XRP's primary use case is cross-border payments through RippleNet and On-Demand Liquidity (ODL).
While Ripple claims growing adoption, the actual daily transactional volume from banks and institutions using XRP is small compared to its total market cap.
A large portion of XRP trading volume still comes from speculation on exchanges, not institutional settlement use.
Estimating Utility-Based Price
Let’s assume banks & financial institutions only need a fraction of XRP's supply at any given time for real transactions.
For context, SWIFT (the dominant global payment network) settles $5 trillion per day, but that doesn’t mean XRP will replace it or capture all of that volume.
Even if XRP were used for 1% of SWIFT’s volume, that would be around $50 billion in daily transactions.
Given that XRP is designed for rapid settlement (held for seconds, not days), the actual liquidity needed in the system would be far smaller—likely a few billion dollars at most.
2. Supply & Circulating Coins
Current circulating supply: ~55 billion XRP
If XRP’s real usage demand is only a few billion dollars at any given time, then its price per coin would be much lower than today’s level.
A conservative model: If XRP needed a total market cap of $5 billion to serve its actual transactional volume, the price per XRP would be:
$5,000,000,00055,000,000,000=$0.09
55,000,000,000$5,000,000,000=$0.09
If XRP needed a $10 billion market cap, the price per XRP would be $0.18.
These numbers assume zero speculation and only reflect practical usage.
3. Competitive Alternatives
Banks may prefer stablecoins (USDC, USDT) or CBDCs for settlements instead of XRP.
If that happens, XRP’s utility-based value could drop even further.
Final Thought
Pure utility price range (removing speculation): $0.05 - $0.50 per XRP (depending on actual adoption).
Current price (~$0.60 - $0.70 as of early 2024) is mostly speculation rather than true demand from banks.
If XRP’s adoption expands beyond just settlements (e.g., DeFi, smart contracts), its valuation could be higher, but based on current use, a fair price is likely far lower than today's market cap suggests.
You said:
The current price is 2.75 though so that means that its extremely overvalued?
ChatGPT said:
Yes, if XRP is currently trading at $2.75, then it is extremely overvalued relative to its actual real-world usage. That price is almost entirely speculation-driven rather than being backed by fundamental demand from banks and institutions.
Why is XRP Overvalued?
Speculation Dominates
The price is likely inflated due to retail and institutional traders betting on future adoption, not actual usage today.
Many holders believe XRP will be widely used by banks in the future, but that hasn’t fully materialized.
Utility-Driven Valuation is Much Lower
As calculated earlier, based on actual transaction volume and settlement needs, a more realistic price for XRP without speculation could be anywhere from $0.05 to $0.50.
At $2.75, XRP’s market cap is massively inflated compared to its real-world demand.
Ripple’s XRP Holdings & Selling Pressure
Ripple still holds a significant amount of XRP and regularly sells into the market.
If real demand doesn’t increase, but more XRP enters circulation, it could create downward price pressure over time.
Banks Prefer Stablecoins & CBDCs
Financial institutions are increasingly looking at stablecoins (USDC, USDT) and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) for payments instead of XRP.
Unlike XRP, stablecoins don’t have volatility issues, making them more attractive for settlements.
What Could Happen Next?
If speculation dies down and investors realize XRP’s real use case is limited, a significant price correction could happen.
XRP could still maintain some premium due to speculation, but long-term, it needs actual adoption to justify a multi-dollar price.
Conclusion
At $2.75, XRP is massively overvalued based on its current utility. If speculation fades, a more reasonable price could be well under $1—or even below $0.50—unless it gains widespread, real-world adoption beyond what it has today.
Good luck, this is going to destroy so many people, its so sad. None of this is financial advice its just my opinion.
Bitcoin’s Bullish Patterns_Ready for a Breakout!?As I expected in the previous post , Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) approached the Heavy Support zone($93,300-$90,500) and Support lines but quickly started to rise.
Bitcoin is moving in the Support zone($96,150-$94,700) . And in this increase of Bitcoin in the last few hours, we can see the Morning Star Candlestick Pattern well in the 2-hour time frame .
Educational tip : The Morning Star is a bullish reversal candlestick pattern that forms after a downtrend, consisting of three candles: a large bearish candle, a small indecisive candle, and a strong bullish candle. It signals a potential trend reversal and growing buying momentum.
In terms of Classic Technical Analysis , it seems that Bitcoin has succeeded in forming the Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern , which can be a sign of Bitcoin's increase .
According to the theory of Elliott waves , it seems that the entire corrective waves inside the descending channel were all in the form of a Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) so that it seems that Bitcoin finally completed the main wave C in the previous hours. If Bitcoin breaks the upper line of the wedge pattern, we can confirm the end of the main wave C .
I expect Bitcoin to be able to touch the Targets I specified on the chart AFTER breaking the upper line of the Descending Channel .
Note: If Bitcoin goes below $94,400, we expect more dumps.
Do you think Bitcoin can finally break out of this Descending Channel? Pump or Dump?
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 2-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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BITCOIN: Bull Flag. Will it break upwards?Bitcoin has just turned bullish on its 4H technical outlook (RSI = 56.545, MACD = -0.190, ADX = 38.441) but remains neutral on 1D. The reason is that the price is now at the top of the 2 week Channel Down, having crossed and closed over the 4H MA100 for the first time since January 31st. On the larger timeframes this Channel Down could be a Bull Flag to continue the bullish trend but of course the price needs to cross over it, otherwise a technical rejection will prevail. If it breaks upwards, go long targeting the 4H MA200 (TP = 99,500). Until it does, keep a tight SL short targeting the top of the S1 Zone (TP = 95,750).
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Levels to watch out The market has been stuck in a range for almost three weeks now. Unless we see a decisive break either below 90,000 or above 99,000, it’s tough to predict the next move. However, if we do break either level, it could trigger a sharp move—likely towards 125,000 or 75,000, with the latter seeming more probable at the moment.
That said, time will tell. Personally, I’m expecting a short-term rally back to 99,000, especially after the recent head-and-shoulders pattern that’s been forming.
$BTC have a gold fractal!Please pay attention to the Bitcoin chart and the Gold fractal! It's incredible, but it looks very similar. The level of correlation is quite high! Similar formation of tops, bottoms, breakout without retest and then now breakout phase with retest. The retest was successful. Very soon there will be the strongest growth! Good luck!
Horban Brothers!
We're going for an update of the highs!High number of eliminations per level at 100k+, I believe we are at the starting point stage and will see insane growth soon enough! Altcoins are flying away as soon as the 100k mark is crossed, as this is the psychological level for locking in a huge number of positions. Then the profit distribution will start and the very alt season that everyone is waiting for!