Bitcoin Bull Flag: Last Hurdle for a Major Rally
Over six weeks ago, Bitcoin start forming a Bull Flag pattern. The breakout above the 20-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) confirmed a low, setting the stage for a potential rally towards the Bull flag's target of approximately $100K. Fast forward to today, BTCUSD has not only surpassed these SMAs but also cleared the Ichimoku Cloud, positioning the price above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day SMAs. This alignment signals a bullish outlook.
Recent Price Action
Recently, Bitcoin has surged past the $71,600 mark, showing a 3.30% increase in the last 4 days. This rise is driven by renewed enthusiasm from both new and short-term investors. According to GlassNode’s latest report, the market is seeing a resurgence in speculative interest. Long-term holders (LTHs), considered the most experienced market participants, are maintaining their positions and continue to accumulate Bitcoin, indicating strong confidence in its long-term growth potential.
Technical Resistance and Support
Since its all-time high in March, Bitcoin has faced resistance at the Bull flag's upper trend line, with three failed breakout attempts in April an May. As of June 7, BTCUSD is testing this critical resistance again. A successful breakout could lead to a significant rally to $100K, while failure to clear this trend line might result in a correction towards the $54-55K range — watch carefully on SMAs an Ichimoku Cloud.
Market Sentiment
The "Sell-Side Risk Ratio" suggests that most profit-taking has already occurred within the current price range, pointing to the potential for volatile movements soon. Despite recent market consolidation, long-term holders have shown minimal selling activity, reinforcing their confidence in Bitcoin's future appreciation.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s market outlook remains optimistic. The alignment of key SMAs and the Ichimoku Cloud supports a bullish scenario, with further gains likely as speculative interest increases and long-term holders remain steadfast. The next critical test is the $71,300 resistance level, which, if cleared, could pave the way for a substantial rally.
Btc-bitcoin
Bitcoin: JUNE 7TH, 2024Hello dear traders. Hope you're doing ok.
This is my #btc expectation in the short and mid term.
Let's get down to the nitty-gritty of the PA.
Price MIGHT take out yesterday's low, fill the FVG, and then continue the upward momentum. If not, we'll move towards the clean highs at the top of the range, and the PA will be of significance there. I will definitely exit my long, especially if I see a major push with high volume, and monitor the price. Acceptance back into the range will be a short trigger towards some lows around 68500 and 66K. That will be the ideal scenario to long again towards some dizzying heights. However, if price manages to maintain above the range high, and form structure, I will begin to consider longing. Momentum EMAs have shaped up nicely, and I assume we'll pick up pace soon.
If you find the idea useful, please like, share, and subscribe for more updates. Good luck trading!
2024-06-06 - a daily price action after hour update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bears keep rejecting 71000 and it’s the 4th time bulls touched it. Something has to give, either bulls stop trying or bears defending. My money is on the bears. The bull trend line runs around 68500 and if bears can get below, I am confident that this was the last we have seen from prices above 68000 for a long time. If bulls can break above 72000, they will certainly print a new ath and it also means I’m wrong.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 56000 - 74000
bull case: Bulls either use the momentum now to print above 72000 or stop trying. The big bear trend line from the ath is holding somewhat since we are still making lower highs. I can’t find many arguments for the bulls here. They printed a decent double top on the 1h chart and a quadruple top on the daily chart. They kept the 1h bull gap to 69800 open and are 2000 points above the daily ema. Bull trend lines are intact, so they could continue trying to break above 72000.
Invalidation is below 69000.
bear case: They see the many many rejections above 71000 and the double top from today. They need much more selling pressure to close the gap to 69800 and test the lower bull trend line and the daily ema around 69000.
Invalidation is above 72000.
short term: Neutral between 69000 - 72000. Bullish above, bearish below.
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short from 70443, sl 71950
trade of the day: Trading range 70000 - 71500. Buy low and sell high at the extremes or don’t trade at all. Selling above 71000 has been profitable since March.
Learn How To Trade Tradingview's new BBTrend Indicator!
Introduction
In this analysis I want to take a closer look at Tradingview's newly released BBTrend indicator. It's an indicator on the widely popular Bollinger Bands. You can find more information about the indicator here: www.tradingview.com
Indicators are nice to use, but the most important question remains whether they are useful in trading or not?
I want to present you a very simple, but powerful trading strategy using this new indicator.
Indicators used
- BBTrend: determine the best reversal entries.
- 200-period EMA: assess whether we're trading bullish or bearish.
Strategy
Bullish: price should be above 5% of the 200-period EMA. Light-red BBTrend has to change in trend and become dark red.
Bearish: price should be below 5% of the 200-period EMA. Light-green BBTrend has to change in trend and become dark green.
Investment: risk 5% per stop loss. This means that you lose 5% of your balance if the stop is hit, but gain 15% once the profit target is hit.
Stop and profit targets
Stop-loss: place stop just above the most recent swing-high.
Take profit: 3x the stop-loss distance.
Results
Win-rate: 4/8, 50%
Profit: +42%
(1.15*1.15*0.95*0.95*0.95*1.15*1.15*0.95)
I'm aware of trading within existing trades, but for the sake of simplicity I use this easy profit calculation method.
Final remarks
This strategy works well in strongly trending markets due to the higher probability of the trend continuing the current direction. In periods of prolonged trading around the 200-period EMA it can get tricky to get a good trade in, hence we only trade once we're at least at 5% distance of the EMA.
This trend-following strategy can be used on every asset and on every time frame. Just make sure to be consistent.
Good luck!
BITCOIN - 2 SCENARIOS Hello Traders !
The Bitcoin price formed a descending triangle pattern.
We have 2 scenarios:
BEARISH SCENARIO:
if the price breaks and closes below the support level (67276 - 66259),
We will see a huge bearish move📉
TARGET: 61640🎯
BULLISH SCENARIO:
if the market breaks above the resistance line and closes above that,
We will see a bullish move📈
TARGET: 71400🎯
BTC will not dip below $ 69k again.Hi everyone,
In a lot of ways, (four days later!), BTC will not dip below $ 69K again.
1- Based on historical trends following the halving ...
2- Elliott Wave Theory!
Proof of claim:
As you know, wave ((1)) and wave ((4)) cannot overlap. For this reason, there is only one possibility for the long-term outlook.
This can only mean one thing: BTC will not dip below $ 69K again.
As a result, the best time to buy Bitcoin is now
Appendix:
and then
Bitcoin Bull-Flag Breaking OutIn my most recent BTC analysis I talked about a pending break out of a bull-flag pattern. My previous design was not the one the market agreed upon, so had to redraw the bottom support.
As expected, the price is breaking out through the top resistance as we speak. Wait for the candle to close for confirmation.
My view is quite bullish, so I'm expecting this break out to lead to a new ATH in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin's LAST Hurdle: Short-Squeezing To New Highs!Bitcoin has shown that it's ready for a new all-time high by printing relatively big green candles over the last 3 days. However, the 73k-74k area remains an area of big resistance. Previous buyers are looking for an exit, whilst patient bears wait for the perfect short.
My best guess is that Bitcoin is going to trade around the purple area for a couple of days, flushing out over-leveraged bulls and bears. However, the break out that will follow will likely be violent.
With all the short-stops lying above the current all-time high, it's more than likely that the new all-time high break out will take us multiple percentages above the current ATH. I'm personally aiming at 80k within the first 1-2 days, potentially even 90k in the first week after the break out.
Be patient and dont trade small fake-outs.
$70,000 continues to be an obstacle for BitcoinYesterday, Bitcoin again tested the resistance near $70,000 but failed. After soaring to $70,258, it quickly dropped below $69,000, where it currently trades. Overall, not much has changed from a technical perspective since our previous update; merely the sideways trend of a lesser degree became more apparent, with Bitcoin struggling at the $70,000 mark. As such, our focus continues to lie at this point, along with the two sloped channels shown below.
Illustration 1.01
The daily chart of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) above shows the descending channel, with its upper bound acting as an important resistance for the price. To support a bullish case in the short term, it would be ideal for Bitcoin to close above the resistance level for multiple consecutive days; the resistance’s importance grows with each retest.
Illustration 1.02
The image above shows the ascending channel within the larger descending channel; its lower bound acts as a resistance.
Illustration 1.03
The illustration above displays an alternative trendline on Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) daily graph, which acts as critical support for the price.
Technical conditions
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Bullish (losing momentum)
Monthly time frame = Bullish
Bitcoin addresses
Initially, the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC increased slightly after the big slump we described on 29th May 2024. However, while this figure is still above its 28th May 2024 level, it resumed a decline in a new month, which is not a particularly positive sign. The same trend can be observed among the addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BTC looks okay, 1st phase pretty much complete, phase 2 nextTurned bullish on CRYPTOCAP:BTC during the beginning of May.
Futures #BTC looks good but the volume is lacking a bit.
RSI looks okay but not great.
$ Flow is not that great either.
Spot #Bitcoin = ditto.
However, technically they look good, they are trading above their respective moving averages.
What would seal the deal? HUGE volume breaking highs!
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Not shown here, pls see profile for more info.
Noticed an interesting weekly CRYPTOCAP:BTC pattern. Will speak on that later as the pattern will likely resolve months from now. Want to see what happens within the next couple months first.
Spot #BTC hasn't proven it's better to chart vs futures #Bitcoin, doubt it will until it counts (meaning it'll change when things hit the fan).
Current box is the best looking. We'll see what happens very soon.
#crypto
MAV Bullish Channel ReversalJust like my recent CYBER analysis, MAV is trading within a bullish channel. I'm anticipating that the low is in (for now) and that the most likely path forward would be a continuation of the trend.
Target at the top of the channel or 1.25$, stop below the recent swing lows.
CYBER Bullish Channel: More Gains Expected Soon!CYBER is a relatively new token on the Binance exchange. Since it's inception, this token has been mainly going up inside this bullish channel.
After a recent touch of the bottom support, it would theoretically be a great time to step in.
Target at 22$, stop just below the recent swing lows.
BITCOIN - Price can continue to fall to support level in flatHi guys, this is my overview for BTCUSDT, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A not long time ago price entered to wedge pattern, bouncing down from resistance line and breaking $62200 level.
But then, BTC made upward impulse to $66600 level, breaking $62200 level, and even soon broke $66600 level too.
Next, price continued to move up and in a short time later exited from wedge and even entered to resistance area.
After this, Bitcoin turned around and started to trades in flat, making a fake breakout of $70700 level.
Recently price fell to support level, but then bounced up and now it tardes almost near top part of flat.
At the moment, I think price can make upward movement first, and then continue to fall to $66600
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Bitcoin BTC Updated Bull Run Path I have updated the Bitcoin path by looking at the time frames it took to break through each of the Fibs from the last two bull Runs. I found a command time frame between the two that I have applied to this Bull Run. We are looking at hitting the $193K+ price point now around Nov. 1, 2024. Also looking for an ALT season around Dec 2024. Let's see how things will play out.
BITCOIN Major Bullish Break-out taking place.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke today above the top of the Falling Wedge pattern, which is technically the Bearish Leg of May's Channel Up. If the days closes above it, we will have a repeat of the May 13 Bullish break-out but this time even stronger as the 1D Stoch RSI has formed a Bullish Cross on oversold territory.
As mentioned on our previous analysis, the last Bullish Leg of the Channel Up peaked at +19.50%, so we expect BTC to replicate this. Our Target is 79000.
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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