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A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook: Buy the dip or sell the rip?We move on from a week where strong momentum markets (AI names, NAS100, JPN225, Mexican peso) were sold down hard, with traders better buyers of the VIX, US30, gold, CHF, USD, and defensive equities (utilities). Notably, the NAS100 recorded its worst week since November 2022, driven in part by market players part-liquidating an incredibly extended position in Nvidia, with 87m shares traded on Friday alone. Tesla and Super Micro Computers also seeing steep declines on the week, with Tesla remaining front and centre with Q124 earnings due after-market on Tuesday – many ask whether we see a fifth consecutive quarter where shares closed lower on the day of reporting? Long US30 / short NAS100 positions have worked well and remain a tactical play I like into the new week - although with so many heavyweight tech names reporting through the week, NAS100 shorts will watch the reaction to earnings closely and will be prepared to react if the market likes what they see from the respective outlooks. While sentiment has turned more negative, there is absolutely no panic at all and I’d to see if the buyer’s step in and support the S&P500 a little lower into 4935. That said, the price action and technical set-up suggests selling rallies in the US500 and NAS100 is the play – and if one is compelled to ‘buy dips’, then waiting for the rip after early traders buy the dip seems the higher probability play. Geopolitical headlines remain fluid and have been a key reason for keeping buyers of risk at bay – many will remain focused on these developments as we roll into the new week. The news flow was certainly a key reason why gold closed higher for a fifth straight week and at a new all-time closing high on Friday, as it was why the CHF was the star currency on the week. That said, with Brent crude closing the week 3.1% lower, one could argue it was the move higher in US bond yields – with the US 10yr Treasury pushing above 4.6% - that was really the big kicker that promoted rotation out of tech/AI names and supported the USD. Short GBPUSD and long USDMXN on any retracement remains a compelling trade on my radar. Watch US PCE inflation on Friday as the marquee risk on the data front – for a playbook, we could see outsized market moves on a US core PCE print above 0.4% m/m (USD up, gold, NAS100 down) or below 0.25% m/m (USD down, NAS100 and gold higher). A read above 0.4% m/m and the idea of a cut before the US Presidential election would be further dialled back. There will be a focus on the BoJ meeting, but it is too soon for them to alter policy, and the market gives a change in rates no chance at all. If we get a move in the JPY, it will likely come from any changes to the bank’s inflation forecasts and the post-meeting conference call. We remain on JPY intervention watch, and signs that we are getting closer to the point where Japanese authorities look to step up the fight against JPY's weakness. PMIs are due in the UK, EU, and US and they could move markets, notably if the service’s PMI outcome misses/beats expectations by a wide margin. Australia Q1 CPI poses a risk to AUD exposures, although, with such little priced into Aussie interest rate futures, it would need to big surprise to have a lasting effect on AUD pairs. Bitcoin moves past the highly anticipated halving and while we predictably didn’t get any kneejerk reaction in price, the set-up on the higher timeframes is starting to look more compelling from the long side. There was clear support from the market to buy on the move below $60k and this is a level many are guiding for stops on longs. An upside break of $66k could be the trigger for a push into the top of the range of $72k. Key event risk for traders to navigate: Monday • China 1 & 5-year Loan Prime Rate decision (11:15 AEST / 14:15 BST) – No change expected with the 1-year rate left at 3.45% and the 5-year rate at 3.95%. Earnings – SAP (Germany) – one to watch for clients trading the GER40, with SAP holding a 10% weight on the index. Central bank speeches – BoE’s Benjamin speaks (19:05 AEST / 10:05 BST) Tuesday • EU HCOB manufacturing and services PMI (18:00 AEST / 09:00 BST) – Service PMI eyed at 51.8 (from 51.5 in the prior read) & manufacturing at 46.5 (from 46.1) • UK S&P manufacturing and services PMI (18:30 AEST / 09:30 BST) - Services at 53.0 (53.1) & manufacturing at 50.4 (50.3) • US S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI (23:45 AEST / 14:45 BST) - Services at 52.0 (51.7) & manufacturing at 52.0 (51.9) Earnings – Tesla (after-market), Visa (after-market) Central bank speeches – BoE Haskel (18:00 AEST), BoE Huw Pill (21:15 AEST), ECB Nagel (22:30 AEST) Wednesday • Australia Q1 CPI (11:30 AEST / 02:30 BST) – The economist consensus looks for headline CPI at 0.8% QoQ / 3.5% YoY (4.1%), and the trimmed mean CPI measure eyed at 3.8% YoY (from 4.2%). With Aussie interest rate futures pricing in just one rate cut in 2024, it would take a big beat/miss vs consensus to drive significant volatility in the AUD, with the AUD more sensitive to geopolitical headlines and broad market sentiment. • Mexico Bi-weekly CPI (22:00 AEST / 13:00 BST) – the consensus is for headline CPI to come in at 4.49% (4.37%) and core CPI at 4.38% (4.41%) Earnings – Lloyds (UK), Boeing (before-market), IBM (after-market), Meta (after-market) Thursday Anzac Day – ASX200 closed. Earnings – Barclays (UK), Caterpillar (before-market), Alphabet (after-market), Intel (after-market), Microsoft (after-market) Central bank speeches – ECB’s Schnabel speaks (00:00 AEST and 17:00 AEST) Friday • Tokyo CPI (09:30 AEST / 00:30 BST) – headline CPI is eyed at 2.5% (2.6%) and core CPI at 2.2% (2.4%) – shouldn’t be a volatility event for the JPY or JPN225 • Bank of Japan meeting with updated GDP and inflation forecasts (no set time but likely between 12:00 and 15:00 AEST / 03:00 to 06:00 BST) – no change in policy expected, so the focus falls on the bank's inflation projections and the post-meeting conference call. • ECB 1- & 3-year CPI expectations (18:00 AEST / 09:00 BST) • US core PCE inflation (22:30 AEST / 13:30 BST) – headline PCE inflation is expected at 0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y (from 2.5%) and core PCE at 0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y (2.8%). Earnings – Exxon (Before market), Chevron
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Pepperstone
1
Oh My Gold!- Everything is in graph. - maybe Gold will start a new rise after BTC Halving. " In a bearish market, investors typically prefer to buy gold, and at times of high inflation and market volatility, gold is considered by many as a 'safe haven' asset. " - This was the definition of a safe heaven i found in Google, but this have no more sense in 2022.. - if you bought GOLD in 2011 ATH and sold in 2022, you would have made somehow zero benefits or lose your money because of lack of patience. - How much money you would have made buying Bitcoin in 2018 ? ( no need to push the date to 2011..) if you really want to know what is happening now, it's really simple and logic : - The New Generation is impatient, they buy BTC and Cryptos, they take risks. - They make much more money and faster money than buying a corrupted metal controlled by Governments ( Thanks to Nixon's Team in 1971 ). - When Cryptos Bull runs burst to new ATH, smart peoples drop Cryptos to buy Gold, Rolex, Graphic Cards, and Lambos or RS7 ( a joke for my friend Baba ) - in a worst case of world war, it's much more simple to have a Ledger in the pocket than move with 50 Kgs of Gold in a bag. - The New Money is in the Blockchain. Happy Tr4Ding !
TVC:GOLD
by thecryer
22
🔥 MATIC On Bear Market Support: Big Reversal Coming?With BTC trading bearish over the last few weeks, alts have taken a big hit. MATIC is one of the alts who has practially lost all the gains over the last half year in a matter of weeks. However, MATIC has found support on the main bear market support (purple). This signal is based on the idea that the support will hold and that both alts and BTC will reverse from extreme oversold conditions. Stop below the recent low, target at the main bearmarket top.
MLong
by FieryTrading
7
Honestly, I don't feel like explaining, the chart says it all !!Hi. BINANCE:BTCUSDT Honestly, I don't feel like explaining because the chart says it all. PREVIOUS ANALYSIS Stay awesome my friends. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟! ⚠️Things can change... The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Long
by CobraVanguard
1
Study MSTR Study NVDA - Call Option The Panic - MSTR VS NVDA Is Bitcoin going to do what some outlandish people think? Remember the ones who were anti semiconductors and Ai LLM? Skeptics with MSTR are going to go through the same treatment the NVDA shorts had to. MSTR has performed a successful break of the companies entire history showing Michael Saylor has caught onto a new trend. MSTR Volume supports the run, there's still large short interest on MSTR from the 100-200 range still stuck. Puts continue to pile onto MSTR as apparently the Spot ETF volumes have "peaked" at 54b AUM. The MACD is showing a launch coiled up beyond what NVDA was. MSTR Notional Value 1.72B NVDA Notional Value 66.48B Both Bitcoin & MSTR are making a retest of the long term price trend, if this fails to break back under we will see a reversion of the both.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by FederalXBT
$BTC Derivatives still dictating price, NOT Spot BitcoinCRYPTOCAP:BTC & CRYPTOCAP:ETH look almost identical the last few days, that is pretty interesting. However... Stretch the chart out a bit and it is a very different story. #BTC outperformed #ETH by a decent amount. ------------------------------------ Both CRYPTOCAP:BTC showed upcoming weakness. However, Futures #BTC Money Flow went below 0 & stayed there. Spot recovered fast but #bitcoin went lower in April! Now, we see Futures Money Flow gaining momentum again. Spot has been hanging around here for a bit. Looks like derivatives are STILL dictating #bitcoin price action.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
🚧Bitcoin is Bullish now🚧 & many Traders don't see it 👀!!!Hi. COINBASE:BTCUSDT ✅Today, I want to analyze BTC for you in a 1D time frame so that we can have a MID-term view of BTC regarding the technical analysis. (Please ✌️respectfully✌️share if you have a different opinion from me or other analysts). ✨After the fifth bullish wave, BITCOIN has completed his corrective waves (ABC) and now he has reached the Bottom of the wedge, now it is time to start the five bullish waves, and BTC is in the ASCENDING TRIANGLE, also a bullish Divergence (RD+) on MACD which shows Positive Signs for BITCOIN. ✅ Due to the Ascending structure of the chart... 🟢 High potential areas are clear in the chart. 🟢 Bullish Wedge. 🟢 Ascending Triangle 🟢 Starting 5th waves. 🟢 Bullish Divergence ❗ Note that if the WEDGE is broken down with the power of descending candles, our analysis will fail. Stay awesome my friends. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟! ⚠️Things can change... The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Long
by CobraVanguard
3