GBPCAD IS BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISGBPCAD is currently presenting a high-probability bullish setup after a textbook inverse head and shoulders formation on the 12H chart. Price is now hovering around 1.8457 and has just broken out above the descending trendline acting as neckline resistance. This structural shift, combined with clean bullish price action, signals the potential beginning of a fresh upward leg toward the 1.8976 region, a prior key supply zone and the projected target based on the measured move technique from the pattern.
From a fundamental standpoint, the British Pound is supported by hawkish BoE rhetoric and stronger-than-expected UK inflation data. Sticky core CPI and a robust labor market are keeping interest rate expectations elevated, which strengthens GBP across the board. In contrast, the Canadian Dollar remains under pressure due to softer oil prices and the Bank of Canada's dovish stance as it flirts with rate cuts in upcoming meetings. This macro divergence is fueling the momentum in GBPCAD’s favor, making it a favored pair for swing longs.
Technically, the pair is forming higher lows with increasing volume, which adds confidence to the breakout. The risk is well defined below 1.8198, making this an attractive trade with a solid 1:2+ reward-to-risk profile. As price continues to respect bullish market structure, any pullback toward the neckline could offer a prime re-entry zone for continuation traders.
This setup aligns with highly searched price action strategies such as “inverse head and shoulders breakout,” “neckline retest,” and “GBP strength vs CAD weakness.” With both technical and fundamental confluence pointing in the same direction, GBPCAD is set up for a potentially profitable swing opportunity heading into May.
Btc-bitcoin
Skeptic | Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Analysis: Why 85850 is Critical!The breakout above 85,850 could push Bitcoin into a new uptrend phase, potentially driving price toward 90K, 95K, and even 105K in the coming weeks. That’s why this zone is so important. But let me explain why in more detail.
⭐Let’s start with the daily timeframe. After breaking out of its descending trendline, BTC entered a range between 82,800 and 85,850 . Looking at the bigger picture, you’ll see that 88,500 is a key resistance level — and breaking above it could act as a strong trigger.
But if you’re not a breakout trader and prefer reactive entries, the 80K–82K zone is a major PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) based on RSI, Fibonacci, and Pivot Points — meaning it could offer a decent spot-buying opportunity.
Just keep in mind: we’re not officially in a daily uptrend yet, so if you’re thinking about spot buying, it’s better to wait for a confirmed higher low and higher high on the daily chart.
The long-term target for the next uptrend is around 140K , based on long-term Fibonacci extensions, pivot points, and trend channels.
🔮 Now let’s drop to the 4H timeframe to find some long and short triggers.
As you can see, we’ve got a range box between 83,055 and 85,853.89.
A long trigger activates after a clean breakout above 85,853.89.
A short trigger activates after a breakdown below 83,055.
It’s better to use stop buy/sell orders rather than entering at market price, since price may move sharply after staying in this box for quite a while.
You can also use this box to set your stop losses.
If you’re a reaction-based trader, you could:
Short around 85,853 when price reacts there,
Or go long around 83,055, depending on your personal strategy.
Just remember: crypto markets often fake breakouts, especially during low-volume periods like now.
Indicators like RSI, Volume, and SMA can help confirm moves.
Understanding momentum — when it’s present and when it’s not — can save you from taking unnecessary trades.
Also, the candlestick itself matters a lot:
How long is the shadow?
What’s the body size and color?
Are we getting strong bullish or bearish confirmations?
If you want a tutorial on identifying real vs. fake breakouts, let me know in the comments — I’ll make one soon.
If you enjoyed the analysis, hit that Boost
By the way, I’m Skeptic.
BTC - Halving Cycle | Historical Patterns & 2025-2026 Projection
In this chart, we dive deep into the cyclical nature of Bitcoin price action post-halving and draw parallels between past and current movements, with a specific focus on how the market has historically reacted at various intervals following each halving event. This analysis incorporates both structural and temporal elements, providing a potential roadmap based on previous behavior.
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Historical Context: Previous Cycles
3rd Halving – May 11, 2020
Following the 3rd Bitcoin halving, we observed a parabolic run-up over the next several months:
- 11 months after halving (April 2021): BTC reached a major peak, hitting nearly $65,000.
- This was followed by a significant correction.
- 19 months after halving (December 2021): Bitcoin printed a second top close to the previous all-time high, forming a classic double top pattern. This structure often signals market exhaustion and precedes deeper corrections.
Cycle Completion – Price Reversion
By 30 months after the 3rd halving (around November 2022), BTC had retraced much of its gains and returned to prices nearly equivalent to the halving level (~$8,000–$10,000 zone in log-adjusted terms). This marked the end of the cycle, confirming a full reversion to the mean after the double-top distribution phase.
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Current Cycle: 4th Halving – April 19, 2024
We're now entering the 4th post-halving cycle , and so far, the structure appears to be rhyming closely with the previous cycle :
- Pre-halving rally took BTC to ~ FWB:73K (March 2024), indicating strong bullish momentum leading into the event.
- If this cycle follows a similar path, we may expect:
- A first major top around 9 months after the halving , potentially at or above $100K.
- A second top forming around 17 months after the halving (projected for September 2025), possibly signaling the beginning of a broader correction phase.
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Projection: October 2026 (30 Months After Halving)
Using the same temporal framework:
- By October 2026 (30 months post-halving), the chart suggests a return to a much lower level , possibly around $50K.
- This projection mimics the post-double-top decline of the previous cycle, reinforcing the idea of cyclical mean reversion .
- It’s important to note: this isn’t necessarily bearish, but it highlights the cyclical and psychological nature of markets —boom, euphoria, distribution, and reversion.
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The Macro View: Halving Cycles Are Rhythmic
- Every halving has historically set off a new bull run, but the timing of tops and bottoms is shockingly consistent :
- Peaks often occur 9–18 months post-halving .
- Full cycle completion is around 30 months post-halving.
- These cycles are heavily influenced by supply shocks , market psychology , and macro liquidity cycles .
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Final Thoughts
This chart isn’t a guarantee—it’s a probability model based on cyclical symmetry. If history repeats or rhymes, we may be witnessing another textbook cycle play out, where a euphoric run in 2025 gives way to a deep correction by late 2026.
Stay alert for the double top pattern and macro divergences. Just as in 2021, timing the exit after the first peak can be the difference between profit and pain .
What do you think? Will Bitcoin follow the same 30-month post-halving trajectory?
Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern for BTC??!!!??!Bitcoin appears to be trading in an inverted h&s pattern.
Which coincides with a bullish breach of a Bullish Expanding Triangle highlighted in red to the upside!!
A double bottom is where the head of the inverted triangle can be formed, the space between the two bottoms forms the apex of the head of triangle.
First upside target of $90k USD
Second upside target is $260k USD
BTC Diamond Ser ?- While bears see bearish pennants, I see diamonds in the rough.
- I remain bullish, not due to the price, but for the sake of humanity.
- This isn’t an analysis, just a light-hearted joke, so please don’t roast me too hard! 🙏.
- Remember, diamonds are forever.
- Hodl!
Happy Tr4Ding!
BTCUSDT – System-Based Long Signal (3D Timeframe)
📅 April 19, 2025
Yesterday’s 3D candle closed with a clear PSAR flip, shifting from bearish to bullish — an early signal of potential trend reversal.
In addition, price is now trading above the 200 MA, which confirms a return into long-term bullish territory.
🟢 Based on these two system signals, we have a valid long entry setup forming.
However, the system is not fully aligned yet:
⚠️ MLR < BB Center < SMA
This suggests the internal momentum structure is still weak.
We are above 200MA and have a PSAR trigger, but the trend metrics aren't in full confluence.
📌 Strategy suggestion:
- Consider a partial spot entry only
- Avoid leverage until full confirmation
- Wait for MLR to flip above BB Center for added strength
This is a trigger-before-confirmation type of setup — and in such cases, discipline > excitement.
BTC 4H VS 1D 200 EMAIt's quite a rare occurrence when the 200 EMA finds itself in a very similar position but right now BTC has that exact setup.
On the 4H BTC is fighting the moving average for the 12th time since losing the support level at the beginning in February. At this time the bearish trend channel upper limit also coincides with this level now, IMO a big move is being setup, but the direction is unsure.
On the daily we're seeing the moving average also in line with the trend resistance however the curve itself differs to the 4H in the way that it's levelling out from an uptrend, not levelling out from downtrend.
Bullish scenario - Breaking out above the moving average and trend channel with strength I believe would start to bring buyers back. Now I would not expect buyers to come flooding in at once as many have been burned too many times trying to long a breakout only for it to be a fakeout. I could see many looking for a form of confirmation, be that a retest as new support or a new HH & HL structure.
Bearish scenario - Yet another rejection off this level would be continuation of the downtrend with many adding to their shorts. This to me would be tied to the SPX/ Tradfi movements although those markets are much stronger than this time last week.
In conclusion there is no clear sense of direction just yet but I think it's coming very soon. The chop we are seeing at the moment is a symptom of a lack of confidence and uncertainty in market conditions. Naturally this lends itself to a continuation of the downtrend but all it takes is a catalyst and some big believers to push BTC out above the downtrend to continue the bullrun. I think we get our answer soon.
The Road to $100k BitcoinBitcoin is most likely forming a left-translated 60-day cycle .
Expect Bitcoin to trend downward for the next month, making a lower low in this 60-day cycle and fully scaring the market.
People will start screaming “bear market” and panic-sell their coins to market makers, institutions, and patient investors.
Once that’s done, Bitcoin will resume its bull market, heading toward a market top in Q2/Q3 2025.
This would mirror 2021’s bull market behavior, align with the 4-year Bitcoin cycle, and leave enough time for the market to fully reset by late 2026.
Bitcoin dominance is aiming to hit FIb 1.141 - Alt Season when ?Currently bitcoin dominance is around 64% and about to hit Fib 1 which is the previous high 64.34%.
We can expect bitcoin to breach this previous high easily and head towards the next resistance around the fib value 1.414. This is a strong resistance and if dominance breaks this value then next target is 70% is which around the high value achieve during the 2020 bear run.
I'm expecting dominance to reverse around 1.414 and altseason will start once dominance starts dropping.
Cheers!
GreenCrypto
Bitcoin Bullish Bat Harmonic Forming – Breakout Imminent!?Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) then reached $85,500 , as I expected in my previous post .
Today, I want to share with you a short-term analysis of Bitcoin , and Bitcoin can break the Important Resistance line !
Bitcoin is trading near the Support zone($83,880-$82,380) and Support lines .
Bitcoin is likely to start rising again with the help of the Bullish Bat Harmonic Pattern .
I expect Bitcoin to start rising again either with the help of the Bullish Bat Harmonic Pattern or near the Support lines and Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage($82,426-$81,439) . The first target could be the important resistance line , and if it breaks, it looks like Bitcoin could break the resistance zone ($87,520-$85,840 ) as well.
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $86,624-$85,486
Note: To break the Important Resistance line , we need a candle with high volume at least on the 4-hour time frame , like the Bullish Marubozu candle ; otherwise, it is probably we will see fake break . Since this line is of great importance, it is better to look for a confirming candle on the 4-hour time frame as well ( even a Doji candle with a small green body ).
Note: If Bitcoin falls below $81,000, we can expect further declines.
Do you think Bitcoin can break the Important Resistance line!?
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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BITCOIN's ultimate VIX bottom signal-Last time gave +100% profitBitcoin (BTCUSD) is attempting to make yet another green day, yesterday not only did it close above its 1D MA50 again but was also the 4th green day in the last 6. This attempt is showing that the trend is gradually shifting again towards long-term bullish but today we'll present to you another one, this time in relation to the Volatility Index (VIX).
BTC's (orange trend-line) recent rise is naturally on a negative correlation with VIX (red trend-line) which is currently pulling back after it's most aggressive spike since the COVID flash-crash (March 2020).
Their ratio BTCUSD/VIX (blue trend-line) made a very interesting contact with the Higher Lows trend-line that has been holding since the August 24 2015 Low, which was the bottom of the 2014 Bear Cycle. Since then it made Higher Lows on March 16 2020, August 05 2024 and the most recent, April 07 2025. Every time it was a bottom indication and a massive rally followed. The 'weakest' of all was the previous one, which 'only' gave a +105% rise approximately. Based on that, there is no reason not to expect BTC to hit at least $150k by the end of this Bull Cycle.
Do you think that's a plausible target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC - Critical Juncture at channel and liquidity levelThe 1-hour chart reveals BTCUSDT navigating crucial price territory, with immediate focus on the 85,000.0 to 88,000.0 range. The market shows subtle but important movements, with current price action hovering near 84,260.1 after testing higher levels.
Key observations from the chart:
The volume profile indicates weakening momentum as price approaches the 88,000 resistance zone. Of particular note is the cluster of activity around 84,260.1 , which now serves as immediate support. The liquidity pockets at both 85,000 and 88,000 create clear reference points for potential breakouts or rejections.
Critical levels to monitor:
Upper resistance sits firmly at 88,000.0 , where previous reactions have occurred. Strong support emerges at 84,260.1 , with additional floors at 82,000.0 and the psychological 80,000.0 level. The 0.76% price change marker suggests some volatility brewing beneath the surface.
Trading considerations focus on two scenarios:
A hold above 84,260.1 could signal strength and potential retest of higher levels. However, failure to maintain this support may trigger moves toward 82,000.0 . The tight 0.04% to 0.02% bands indicate potential compression before the next directional move.
Market structure currently favors cautious optimism, but requires confirmation above 85,000.0 for stronger conviction. The diminishing volume at higher levels suggests some exhaustion, making proper position sizing essential.
Final Note: These price levels represent significant psychological barriers. Traders should watch for volume spikes and candle closes beyond these markers for confirmation. Always employ strict risk management in these potentially volatile conditions.
Disclaimer: Market conditions change rapidly. This analysis represents one interpretation of current price action and should not be considered financial advice.
Inversion Fair Value Gaps (IFVGs) - A Deep Dive Trading GuideIntroduction
Inversion Fair Value Gaps (IFVGs) are an advanced price action concept rooted in Smart Money theory. Unlike standard Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), IFVGs consider the idea of price revisiting inefficiencies from an inverse perspective. When price "respects" a previously violated gap from the opposite side, it creates a powerful confluence for entries or exits.
This guide will cover:
- What an IFVG is
- How it differs from traditional FVGs
- Market context for IFVG setups
- How to trade them effectively
- Real chart examples for clarity
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What is an IFVG?
An Inversion Fair Value Gap (IFVG) occurs when price trades through a traditional Fair Value Gap and later returns to that area, but instead of continuing in the original direction, it uses the gap as a support or resistance from the other side.
Standard FVG vs. IFVG:
- FVG: Price creates a gap (imbalance), and we expect a return to the gap for mitigation.
- IFVG: Price violates the FVG, but instead of invalidation, it respects it from the other side.
Example Logic: A bullish FVG is formed -> price trades through it -> later, price revisits the FVG from below and uses it as resistance.
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Structure and Market Context
Understanding structure is key when trading IFVGs. Price must break structure convincingly through a Fair Value Gap. The gap then acts as an inversion zone for future reactions.
Ideal Market Conditions for IFVGs:
1. Market is trending or has recently had a strong impulsive move.
2. A Fair Value Gap is created and violated with displacement .
3. Price retraces back to the FVG from the opposite side .
4. The gap holds as support/resistance, indicating smart money has respected the zone.
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Types of IFVGs
1. Bullish IFVG: Price trades up through a bearish FVG and later uses it as support.
2. Bearish IFVG: Price trades down through a bullish FVG and later uses it as resistance.
Note: The best IFVGs are often aligned with Order Blocks, liquidity levels, or SMT divergences.
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How to Trade IFVGs
1. Identify a clear Fair Value Gap in a trending market.
2. Wait for price to break through the FVG with momentum .
3. Mark the original FVG zone on your chart.
4. Monitor for price to revisit the zone from the other side.
5. Look for reaction + market structure shift on lower timeframes.
6. Enter trade with a clear stop loss just beyond the IFVG.
Entry Confluences:
- SMT divergence
- Order Block inside or near the IFVG
- Breaker Blocks
- Time of day (e.g., NY open)
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Refined Entries & Risk Management
Once the IFVG is identified and price begins to react, refine entries using:
- Lower timeframe market structure shift
- Liquidity sweeps just before tapping the zone
- Candle closures showing rejection
Risk Management Tips:
- Set stop loss just beyond the IFVG opposite wick
- Use partials at 1:2 RR and scale out based on structure
- Don’t chase missed entries—wait for clean setups
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Common Mistakes to Avoid
- Confusing IFVG with invalidated FVGs
- Trading them in low volume or choppy conditions
- Ignoring market context or structure shifts
- Blindly entering on first touch without confirmation
Tip: Let price prove the level—wait for reaction, not prediction.
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Final Thoughts
IFVGs are an advanced but powerful tool when used with precision. They highlight how Smart Money uses inefficiencies in both directions, and when combined with other concepts, they can form sniper-like entries.
Practice finding IFVGs on historical charts. Combine them with SMT divergences, OBs, and market structure, and soon you’ll start seeing the market through Smart Money eyes.
Happy Trading!