"Gold Price Breaks Key Support: Potential Downside Ahead"This chart shows a potential bearish setup for gold, with a breakout below a key level. The price recently failed to sustain its move above a resistance zone and has started declining. The structure indicates a shift in momentum, with a possible move toward the lower trendline of the ascending channel. Key downside targets include the areas around 2799 and 2764, with stronger support near 2742. If the price remains below the broken level, further downside movement is likely. OANDA:XAUUSD
BTC-D
Fair Value Set UpBeautiful isn’t it? Perfect set up, we have a 1HR FVG that got retraced into and an overlapping PD array in the form of the STH. Entry confirmation will be a order flow leg on the timeframes 3-10 at the Fair Value Line ($2770.29) targeting the short term high of $2918.00. More or less a 5% move depending on entry.
BTC Short to 62kDistribution Structure:
The chart shows a clear distribution pattern at the top (highlighted in gray), indicating a potential reversal zone. This structure suggests that buying pressure is weakening, and we may see a price pullback or correction.
BTC.D at Key Level: Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) is currently at a key level, and we are expecting a retracement here. The confluence between the distribution structure on BTCUSDT and the critical BTC dominance level enhances the likelihood of a short opportunity.
Price Action: After reaching the distribution zone, BTC has shown signs of slowing momentum, which further suggests that a pullback or continuation of a downtrend could occur.
Target Range:
The short position could be targeted toward the lower consolidation levels, with a focus on the $87,500 - $85,000 area. The lower end of the original consolidation zone provides strong support that could act as a potential reversal zone.
Risk Management:
Set stops just above the distribution structure to manage risk effectively. Keep the risk-to-reward ratio favorable for the expected move.
Levels discussed during livestream 3rd Feb 20253rd Feb 2025
DXY: If price stays above 109.30, could see it trade up to 110, beyond that 111
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5530 SL 25 TP 60
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6080 SL 30 TP 80
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2230 SL 40 TP 120 (hesitation at 1.2164)
EURUSD: Sell 1.0160 SL 50 TP 150
USDJPY: Buy 156 SL 35 TP 70
EURJPY: Sell 159.40 SL 50 TP 100
GBPJPY: Sell 191.70 SL 50 TP 110
USDCHF: Wait and look for reaction at 0.92 resistance level
USDCAD: Sell 1.4655 SL 50 TP 100
XAUUSD: Look for reaction at 2790 resistance (break upwards to 2812 on recessionary/reinflation/trade war fear) or reject down on DXY strength (inverse relationship)
Called move after move for Bitcoin, what happens next?
If you been lucky enough to work out my analysis and pull the trigger on the trade setups that played out over and over again, I commend you for your knowledge of how to read an analysis and then use it to make an informed decision.
If you caught the last analysis I mentioned about a bear trap spike below the blue line and as you can see it played out. You can see I have removed the green trendline on left chart as it is now done with and the green trendline on the right hand side chart is basically invalidated now.
We see on the left chart the orange trendline is respected with the candle closing above it. The white major trendline also held as major support. You can see the other trendlines still being used, especially on 4 hour timeframe.
So, what now?
We need to watch for the right hand side RSI to breakdown under the red trendline for BTC to get to 108k.
On the left chart the RSI needs to break back above trendline. In regards to the price action, we can see a massive buy up in the crash candle that was just made. Price could move up to 108k from here now there are trapped short traders below. This would put the right USDT.D chart at the blue trendline and as per previous analysis we know what happens if that then breaks below this line.
On the bearish side, if price loses the light green vwap line then expect another retest of the white trendline.
Smash the like button and good luck!
Called move after move for Bitcoin, what happens next?If you been lucky enough to work out my analysis and pull the trigger on the trade setups that played out over and over again, I commend you for your knowledge of how to read an analysis and then use it to make an informed decision.
If you caught the last analysis I mentioned about a bear trap spike below the blue line and as you can see it played out. You can see I have removed the green trendline on left chart as it is now done with and the green trendline on the right hand side chart is basically invalidated now.
We see on the left chart the orange trendline is respected with the candle closing above it. The white major trendline also held as major support. You can see the other trendlines still being used, especially on 4 hour timeframe.
So, what now?
We need to watch for the right hand side RSI to breakdown under the red trendline for BTC to get to 108k.
On the left chart the RSI needs to break back above trendline. In regards to the price action, we can see a massive buy up in the crash candle that was just made. Price could move up to 108k from here now there are trapped short traders below. This would put the right USDT.D chart at the blue trendline and as per previous analysis we know what happens if that then breaks below this line.
On the bearish side, if price loses the light green vwap line then expect another retest of the white trendline.
Smash the like button and good luck!
$BTC and the exit pump to new highs before new lows?Ever since November/December, BTC has largely moved sideways in a wide range from FWB:88K -$109k.
Now that we've bounced off of $91k again this morning, I think that sets BTC up for a big bull trap. I think that we're likely to go to new highs either this week or before 2/21 up to the top resistances (although we don't necessarily have to make it up there), and then everyone will buy the new highs before we go to new lows.
This is a classic distribution top here and I think we'll see new lows by March. We can go as low as the bottom supports down $65-66k and the chart can remain bullish on the high timeframes.
I'm fully out of crypto and have only been speculating directionally by buying calls/puts on COIN (which I currently have calls on). This market has been extremely hard for most investors as they've been speculating in alts and most alts have continued to bleed out while BTC has ranged. I think alts will see new lows (yes, today's move was not the bottom, and the bull market will only start once most people have given up on crypto).
I'm bullish long-term, but still bearish in the near term and plan to buy back my position sometime in March once the distribution has played out to the downside.
Good luck from here on out.
The key is whether it can rise above 101947.24-103706.66
Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please click "Boost" as well.
Have a nice day today.
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I had a hard time on Monday morning due to a broken PC in the rapidly changing coin market.
I'm sorry that I couldn't update you on time because of this.
However, if you had seen what I said, I think you would have responded to some extent, but I hope there was no major damage.
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When trading spot, you should always keep about 20% of your total investment in cash.
That way, you can seize opportunities in rapidly changing situations like this.
If you used spare funds, you must sell them to secure spare funds again.
Even if you have a loss during spot trading, if you have cash, you can respond to some extent.
If not, you should sell some of them to secure cash.
The cash secured in this way should be used to buy back when the price drops and increase the number of coins you have.
The money you sell should not be used to purchase other coins (tokens).
You should think about how to increase the number of coins (tokens) you have by taking advantage of spot trading.
However, if you are scalping or day trading, you can immediately make cash profits.
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(DXY 1D chart)
The first Monday of February seems to have been very volatile due to the sudden surge in DXY.
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The flow of funds seems to be maintaining an upward trend.
The gap rise of USDT and USDC is seen as evidence that funds are flowing into the coin market.
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BTC dominance touched the 55.01-62.47 range and fell.
If BTC dominance rises above 62.47, altcoins are likely to show a large decline.
Therefore, caution is required when trading altcoins.
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If USDT dominance rises above 4.97, the coin market is likely to already be in a downtrend.
If USDT dominance falls, the coin market is likely to show an uptrend.
If USDT dominance falls, it is expected to fall to around 2.84 at the most.
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If BTC dominance rises and USDT dominance falls, there is a possibility that a market will be formed in which only BTC rises.
Therefore, it is possible that altcoins will gradually move sideways or show a downward trend as they rise along with the rise of BTC.
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
It touched below 92792.05 and rose to around 101947.24.
At this time, it seems to have touched the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart.
Currently, the gap between the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart and the M-Signal indicator of the 1M chart is large, so it seems likely that this gap will narrow.
Therefore, it seems likely that it will move sideways within the box section of the HA-High indicator.
However, the key is whether the price can be maintained by rising above the 101947.24-103706.66 range.
If not, there is a possibility of sideways movement between the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart and the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart.
If the price is maintained above the 101947.24-103706.66 range, I think it is highly likely that an upward movement will begin to rise near the Fibonacci ratio point of 2.24 (1169040.43).
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The next volatility period is expected to start around February 9.
Therefore, we need to look at which range among the ranges marked with circles on the chart is supported.
Due to this decline, the box range of the HA-High indicator has expanded to the 91231.0-109588.0 range.
Therefore, I think that the box section mentioned above is the 91231.0-109588.0 section and I should create or modify my trading strategy.
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It's a shame that I can't see the HA-Low indicator on the 1D chart this time.
I think that the fatigue from the rise is high because the rising wave that has continued until now has not ended yet.
Therefore, since there is a possibility that the fluctuation range due to volatility will be large, caution is required when trading.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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Bitcoin $10K Swings Elliott and Key SR Zones. If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment!
Bitcoin has continued to stay volitile, posting two more $10K+ daily moves. The market has been highly news reactive, with significant swings in both directions.
After testing $93K, price held and has since moved back to the $102K area, a level that has been a key point of interest. The focus now is on whether this level will play as resistance for the wave 3 and return to the 99k area for possible base before continuation or if further retracement is needed before the next move.
Wave 4 Development
From an Elliott Wave perspective, a potential wave 4 retracement is in play, with $99K- GETTEX:98K acting as a key support zone. Holding above this range could set the stage for another leg up. So staying vigilant for a corrective pattern above or to this level.
Key Levels to Watch
$102K and $99K – Significant areas for market structure.
$106K – A level that remains on the radar for further upside.
Long positions from $105.6K and $93.8K provide some flexibility to observe price action and adjust accordingly.
The market remains dynamic, and adapting to real-time developments is key. As price action unfolds, the focus will be on whether key levels hold and what signals and patterns emerge for the next move.
Trade safe, trade smart, trade clarity.
BTC Long Target $125000BTC/USDT - Bullish Setup with Target at $125,000
Trade Overview: Price is currently testing key support near $101,000, and there is potential for an upward move towards $125,000.
Key Levels:
Target Zone: $125,000 (Potential upside resistance)
Trade Plan:
Look for an entry around current support levels or after a small retracement or market long breakout.
Target the upper resistance area at $125,000.
Place stop loss below recent support at $92,000.
BITCOIN: Pattern gets repeated again and again and again.Bitcoin is on the most desirable buy levels long term as apart from only being neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.257, MACD = 281.800, ADX = 29.399) it just validated today the enormous buying zone that was waiting on the 1D MA100. This is a level that has worked as a buy entry over and over again these 2 years of the Bull Cycle. The last time it did was exactly a year ago on January 22nd 2024. The result was a +90% rally. If this gets repeated again the exact same way, then a new ATH at 170,000 is more than plausible.
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Avax analysis and review: another rise or fall?hello guys
We came with Avax analysis.
This coin has been suffering for almost 35 days after its price drop, and now that the price is at the bottom of the trading range, it is expected that we will have an upward movement by maintaining the support range up to the ceiling of the trading range.
In case of failure, we will give you a new update.
*Trade safely with us*
Bitcoin analysis: new update...hello friends
As we told you, we have to wait for the failure of the pattern, now with the failure of the pattern, we expect to have a pullback and after that the price can move up to the specified support.
And the indicated support range is an important support for Bitcoin that we expect to react well.
*Trade safely with us*
sui analysis: Safe shopping...hello friends
Considering the good upward trend we had, now that the entry price has been corrected, it is a good time to buy in steps and with capital management.
We have specified for you the steps of buying which are the support areas.
We have specified for you the goals, which are the resistance.
*Trade safely with us*
The Bitcoin Peak: When Will the Cycle End?Been a while since I published a TA. I’ve been digging deep trying to decipher when the cycle top will come in for Bitcoin. Some say it’s an impossible feat. Well, let’s give it a go.
There are two major dates and one minor date for a possible cycle top:
May 2025
**Volume Flow**: 1157 Days
**From June Bottom**: 1064 days
**ETH clear bottom**: June 2022
**Bar Pattern Fractal**: From 2015 bottom
**221k Price Target**: Target crosses with the model in May.
September 2025
**From November Bottom**: 1064 days
**Major Macro Time Fibonacci**
**Chainlink Fractal**
**Chainlink Time Fib**
March 2025
**Small Time Fibonacci**
**Bull Flag End**
**Average % move and time since 2019**
As you can see, there is a lot of evidence to unpack here, so it’s going to be a long one. Let’s start with the first date: May 2025.
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May 2025
Volume Flow on Heikin Candles on the Monthly shows that from the Bearish cross to the cycle top is 1126 days, which ends up being May.
Every cycle, Bitcoin has always put in a double bottom to mark its cycle low. As you can see, in 2022 we had two major crashes, and even though it’s not 100% clear here, we got a double bottom.
The amazing thing about the first bottom in June 2022 is that it mirrored the first bottom of the cycle low of 2015. That fractal was a mirror, showing the importance of this first low in Bitcoin in June 2022.
If we overlay the 2015 fractal, we get the top coming in May.
For anyone who doesn’t know, the last two cycles, Bitcoin has taken 1064 days from Cycle Low to Cycle Top. 1064 days from the June 2022 low is May.
ETH has a much clearer bottom than Bitcoin this cycle. It also took 1064 days, which puts it in May.
So you can see, there is a lot of evidence pointing towards a May 2025 Cycle Top for Bitcoin.
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September/October 2025
1064 days from the second bottom in November 2022 would be October 2025.
For years, I have been using this Major Macro Time Fibonacci sequence that shows me important moments in Bitcoin’s cycles. The last pointed to a move down to 48k in August 2023, which is hard to see on the 2Week chart.
As you can see, it comes close to pinpointing moves, so the next date is the end of September 2025, which lines up with the 1064 days from November 2022.
I have been following this Chainlink fractal for more than a year. We traded LINK using this fractal back in October 2023. You can check my TAs from that period. The fractal is still valid and tops in September 2025.
Chainlink Fibonacci Time Sequence has been hitting home runs time and time again, from pinpointing the top all the way down to the bottom. The next date is late August 2025, very close to September 2025.
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March 2025
This date has far less weight for a cycle top but could be part of a major local top and correction.
A small Time Fibonacci sequence taken from this level shows that March 31st is the next date, and the one after that is late August 2025, the same as the Chainlink fractal.
240% over 162 days is the average that Bitcoin moves up since 2019. If we just overlay the average, we get 127k by mid-February 2025.
A mirror move from October 2023 to March 2024 puts us in March 2025.
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Elliott Wave Section
I’m not an expert in this field but will throw in some takes.
Could we possibly be in Wave 4 out of 5?
Or could we be finishing Wave 3 right now and in for the first large correction of this bull market?
The fact is, the last time we hit this band on this model was January 2021. After that, there was a 31% correction lasting 31 days.
Sometimes 5 waves are very clear. Take GOLD, for example: there is a clear 5-wave pattern at max Fibonacci extension. This is a massive macro sell signal, in my opinion. Crazy how GOLD hit this level on Wave 5 as Bitcoin breaks 100k.
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### **Price Targets
If we take the first cycle and overlay to 2015 cycle, it gave us the cycle top in 2021.
If we do the same for this cycle and overlay the 2015 cycle, we get a price target of 221k, which puts it at the top of my model in May 2025. Just discovered this—that’s one more point for May 2025.
As you can see, in the last two cycles it worked. Will it work this time? Who knows.
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Pi Cycle Indicator
If we just run a rough projection on when the next cross will be, it crosses in April 2025, very close to May. Keep in mind this is a very rough idea of when it could cross.
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Conclusion
We have 5 points in favor of May 2025, 4 points in favor of September 2025, and 2 points for March 2025. As always, the path is never clear for Bitcoin. Until we get much further down the road, I won’t conclusively know which date it will be.
This model I have been using has been so accurate thus far. We are so high up the last bands that we are most likely going to get some sort of long consolidation period with a correction soon, which would give the altcoin market a run.
CHAINLINK 200 DOLLARS BY SEPTEMBER 2025 Only up for Chainlink from this moment , do not let them shake you out , my time fib will show the way as always , for Link its showing August which is when the fractal finishes , late August .
Chainlink so far is repeating the same fractal as last cycle , its very close been using it for over one year to time the market with amazing results the fractal cycle top pattern comes in in August 2025.
The sell zone is in the yellow box , invalidation of this idea would be LINK closing a weekly under 20 dollars.