BTC still in downtrend We are seeing a bit of a Wycoff "Spring" but we are still in the downtrend. Here on the 1 hour chart, my previous prediciton is playing out (thought I was second guessing it six days ago)
BTC Should fall to the 90K demand soon in the coming 2 or 3 days.
Probably some stupid press release from the US Gov, will trigger it.
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BTC-D
BTC Dominance Topping Out, Going to All Time LowsBTC Dominance appears to be in a potential 7 year flat pattern. This coincides with the end of 7 year bear supercycle on alt/USD and alt/BTC pairs. The end of the flat pattern is evidenced by wave-c relating to wave-a by 61.8% in price and relating to waves (a+b)/2 in time (yellow boxes). The false break out from the orange trendline, as well as the wisemen on monthly, weekly, daily, etc charts, and the bearish momentum divergences, are all further evidence that dominance has topped.
From here, it looks like BTC dominance is going to retest the lows, and considering the likelihood of the end of a 7 year bear supercycle on alts, and the beginning of a new alt season, BTC's dominance could fall to as low as 12%.
Fundamentally, little has changed about BTC over the years. While some activity can be moved to layer 2s, the main BTC blockchain is still slow and inefficient, with only 7 TPS most people will not be able to afford to transact on Bitcoin. This will make retail traders and economic activity move to layer 2s and other chains.
One chain which will capture a large share of economic activity from Bitcoin is TRON. It has already captured the largest share of USDT, leading to high TRX burn rates. As Bitcoin's fees begin to skyrocket again following skyrocketing Bitcoin network activity, more of Bitcoin's activity will move to wrapped BTC on chains like TRON which are fast, extremely liquid, low fees, and accepted in most places.
While this will allow everybody to afford to transact with Bitcoin, it will also cannibalize Bitcoin's dominance. Chains that are similar to TRON which can capture a large share of Bitcoin's economic activity by acting as Bitcoin's layer 2, and in doing so are burning their native token for fees, are going to see their circulating supplies drop very quickly because of money earned and burned from fees, and their prices increase much faster than BTC.
It would not surprise me to one day see BTC completely lose it's dominance as the largest crypto to coins which have better fundamentals, especially where they have very high fee revenue and burn rates like TRX, and are significantly faster, more scalable, and turing complete. Either way, I don't think we will ever see BTC's dominance this high again, especially as regulations in the US and around the world begin to favor BTC less and create a fair playing field with other cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin - 100K Pump & Dump?Wow!
This orange trace illustrates a likely bearish pattern that should take place as we set and ATH of $99,661.
There are some bigs gaps that have never been filled as well. Looks or the little white oval on the chart.
And… there is a MAjOR resistance level that has never been checked in on for support done there by the little green heart. It’s my favorite target for BTC, as it also represents a huge migration to DOGE coin.
BTC and all of the other crypto’s are just graphs of the emotions of fear & greed battling like monsters flying and propagating through space. Doge is a little bit different… it invokes the emotion of LOVE. Unconditional love, like mans best friend.
Check my other posts for more insights on the epic battle of David vs Goliath (DOGE vs BTC).
Love, Doge
DOGE - Pullback complete?We saw a MACD divergence lead to a nice corrective wave over the past few days. This is important to stabilize the RSI before the next run. Like how a dog takes little rests between playful runs.
Speaking of Dogs… did you pick up Ont he link between mans best friend and DOGE coin?
It is something unique to all of the other crypto currencies.
DOGE invokes the emotion of LOVE!
What do you feel for BTC or XRP? Fear? Greed? FOMO? ( also a fear)…
The blue trace is a high probability fit. It comes from the similar corrective wave just 2 back in our history… in the midst of the big run. I like that, because i see a foreground and back ground projection of these flying monsters propagating through space when i look at these charts… in 3D of course. Like those pictures you had to stare at in the 90’s.. and then the dolphins would appear in 3D.
Anyhow, my long running observations on the various time frames all suggest that there is a more significant influence coming from that 2 back pattern. It also nicely matches the RSI and MACD patterns.
Finally, we should be able to apply Elliot wave mentality to this… we left the bottom level, made it through the blips, and have just completed the background and foreground of the mid level…. so we should see another move up through the blips, to the top level.
BTC… on the other hand… tops already in! 100K pump and dump. Boom!
Pretty clear decision to sell that and buy DOGE.
Oh… the other traces… they are fit to other harmonic patterns or series on different time frames. They represent some of the other patterns of influence, and are very useful as DOGE likes to mutate a bit with each projection. I’d follow my dogs on hikes… same trail, but a bit of sniffing and chasing, and a different route or combination of routes each day. These projections are a bit like that also.
We do know that the resistance vectors (dotted) will turn to support and need to be checked in on. And the same goes for those support vectors (solid). Understanding the anticipated level behavior's helps us fit the projection to the forecasted levels… and it looks like laser beams at a festival when you zoom. :)
Thanks for being here as the crypto revolution unfolds!
Love, Doge.
Could the Bitcoin drop from here?The price is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could drop to the 1st support which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 95,881.12
1st Support: 91.430.48
1st Resistance: 99.592.22
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4H BTC brief analyseBTC is taking a rest after fierce upward moving.
We will find out later where BTC will be heading to up or down, after a-b-c wave hit at 4hour.
This my trading scenario so that please always beware yourself not to get influenced too much.
Always plan before placing an position and setting up the stop loss.
Need to check support near 92600.19
Hello, traders.
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Please click "Boost" as well.
Have a nice day today.
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
Since the next volatility period is around December 3, the point to watch is whether the price can be maintained near the box range of the HA-High indicator (92600.19-98871.80) until then.
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The HA-High indicator was created at the 96372.40 point, forming a box range (92600.19-98871.80).
This box section is not currently formed by a wave but by a single candle, so there is a possibility that it will expand the box section while moving sideways around this section.
Therefore, we need to check whether there is support near the bottom of the box, 92600.19.
If we see resistance, the key is whether we can touch the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator and rise.
If not, and it falls below the MS-Signal indicator, that is, if it falls below 87.8K, there is a possibility that it will fall to around 79.9K-80.9K, so we need to think about a response plan for this.
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Since the StochRSI indicator is showing signs of entering the oversold section, we need to check the position when it rises in the oversold section and switches to a state where StochRSI > StochRSI EMA.
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Have a good time.
Thank you.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
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(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, I expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
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MSTR is Back To Dotcom Boom Levels...Finally. But At What Cost?Self-explanatory chart. I called a major top for Bitcoin and Microstrategy back in 2022, detailing the possibility of much lower prices for both.
This ended up being correct, but only in the short term. Since then, both BTC and Microstrategy have surprised me to the upside. It's incredible that only now has MSTR reached a valuation it has not seen since the year 2000. Look at that volume! Mania levels.
Microstrategy now owns 386,700 Bitcoin, almost 2% of the entire 21 Million maximum supply. This is triple the supply ownership from 2022, when it was just over 100,000. That's triple the risk. What could go wrong?
It's impossible to know when this could all go up in flames, but I'm certainly ready to watch when it happens. These kinds of price moves and buying behavior are not sustainable. It is also starting to rub more and more Bitcoiners the wrong way - "this is not how it was meant to be!"
Meanwhile, Saylor continues to enrichen himself and shareholders. Not to mention, there is now at least one leveraged MSTR ETF. Again, what could go wrong? Some people have made a killing on this though. Congrats to them. Now it's time to take at least some profit. On the above chart, a breakdown from that orange trendline should indicate a top.
Let's see how it all unfolds. If price manages to hold up here, perhaps there will be at least one more leg up.
As always, this is meant for speculative purposes only. As shown throughout my work on this site, it's really easy to be wrong. I just find the guesswork part of the fun. Thanks for reading!
-Victor Cobra
BTCUSD is heading to Critical OB at 87,800$MMSM identified and we're almost certain BTCUSD [ BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ] will hit 87,800$ this week.
If we respect the first OB we should pass 100K.
If we fail to displace (fast move) after reaching the OB, we could see it go lower to the next OB.
Respecting the OB: Means we displace after reaching the OB.
If we are bullish We don't want, No Chart Timeframe (in this case 90m) candles closing below the OB's lower level (yellow thin line).
If we are bearish We don't want, No Chart Timeframe (in this case 90m) candles closing above the swing high that formed after reaching the OB.
Here is more info about CISD: When an order block is invalidated, it signals a Change in the State of Delivery. For example:
-In an uptrend, a bullish order block acts as support. If price breaks below it, the uptrend may be over, signaling a potential downtrend.
-In a downtrend, a bearish order block acts as resistance. If price breaks above it, the downtrend may be ending, signaling a potential uptrend.
Smart money tip: Liquidity Hunt, CISD often occur after liquidity sweeps . Watch for stop hunts (price wicks above/below recent highs or lows) before the shift.
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tags: COINBASE:BTCUSD INDEX:BTCUSD CRYPTO:BTCUSD CME:BTC1!
BTC ATH | Bitcoin Dominance | Alt Season Interesting insights can be gather from the Bitcoin dominance chart and the altcoin chart (TOTAL3).
You can see some interesting patterns when you overlap them, and monitor for previous "fractals" or patterns.
Some of the key insights you can gain from this combo:
👉 The BTC peak / ATH, or not
👉 The end of Altseason
_________________________
COINBASE:BTCUSD CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3
BTC did not break the $100,000 barrier!Hello everyone, I invite you to review the chart of BTC in pair to USDT taking into account the terval of one day.
As we can see, the price was moving in the downward trend channel marked in blue, from which we got a dynamic upward exit, and the increase itself was similar to the height of the channel from which it emerged.
However, here we can see that the historical moment of breaking through $100,000 turned out to be too great a psychological barrier at which we could observe the beginning of the recovery movement.
using the Fin Retracement tool, we can determine the levels to which the price can probably return and here, first of all, the support level at the price of $89,500 is visible, then the level of $83,800 is visible, but if the price goes lower, we can see a drop to a strong support zone from the level $74,400 to $68,000, which would result in a decline of approximately 27%. It is worth emphasizing that such corrections of 20-30% happen during a bull market.
BTC did not break the $100,000 barrier!Hello everyone, I invite you to review the chart of BTC in pair to USDT taking into account the terval of one day.
As we can see, the price was moving in the downward trend channel marked in blue, from which we got a dynamic upward exit, and the increase itself was similar to the height of the channel from which it emerged.
However, here we can see that the historical moment of breaking through $100,000 turned out to be too great a psychological barrier at which we could observe the beginning of the recovery movement.
using the Fin Retracement tool, we can determine the levels to which the price can probably return and here, first of all, the support level at the price of $89,500 is visible, then the level of $83,800 is visible, but if the price goes lower, we can see a drop to a strong support zone from the level $74,400 to $68,000, which would result in a decline of approximately 27%. It is worth emphasizing that such corrections of 20-30% happen during a bull market.
$BTC Heading Down to Claim Support $86,5 - 90kBitcoin appears to be topped out for the short-time being.
EMA9 has crossed below the EMA21 and price has not been able to break above on the 4-hr.
I expect a retest to $86,5 - $90k which the .382 Fib falls between.
Once we get a solid retest and build support in that level we should see our next leg up past $100k
ALT SEASON #3After years of waiting, countless false starts, and more hopium than a bull market BBQ, we’re finally here: Alt Season 3 is upon us—or so my trusty weekly Bitcoin dominance chart is screaming.
For the uninitiated, this chart is basically the ancient oracle of crypto, and it’s saying, ‘Hey, Bitcoin, take five. It’s time for the alts to shine.’
Zoom in close and you’ll see the subtle shift—the kind of shift that makes your favorite meme coin go from $0.00001 to ‘retire on a yacht’ territory (not financial advice, obviously).
TL;DR: Pack your bags, but don’t forget to double-check the fundamentals of the random farm token you’re YOLO-ing into. Alt Season 3 is here to remind us all that dreams are made… and sometimes rugged. Stay sharp, my friends. 🚀
BITCOIN BULLISH TO $103,000!BTC has topped at Wave 3 (III), now we are seeing a Wave 4 correction which will shake out a lot of the late buyers who got into the market.
Following this shakeout we will see one more push on BTC which will then shake out sellers, when price heads towards a new ATH of $103,000! Clear shakeout on both sides.
PEPEUSDT → DUMP Phase. Manipulation before growth? BINANCE:PEPEUSDT after "PUMP" goes into a plum phase or “DUMP”. Key support is under attack for a long time and may not hold up
For the last week and a half, the coin does not react in any way to the bitcoin growth and is in the consolidation phase, but if you look closely, the consolidation has the character of a descending triangle, which indicates the growing pressure from the sellers.
If the support at 0.00001880 does not hold, the coin may form a strong impulse.
Targets in this case could be 0.0000149 or 0.00001388.
Resistance levels: 0.0000195
Support levels: 0.0000188-0.000018
Emphasis on key support and resistance. I do not exclude that a retest of resistance is possible, but the overall picture at the moment suggests that there may be a breakout of the base, reaching liquidity zones before further growth
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ BINANCE:PEPEUSDT ;)
Regards R. Linda!
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Bounce Back After 8% Crash?Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) has recently taken a significant hit, with the price crashing by 8% from its all-time high of $99,690. As of the latest data, Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) is trading around $92,373, after a 7.09% correction that has left many traders wondering whether BTC will recover or continue its downward trend. This article takes a deep dive into both the fundamental and technical aspects of Bitcoin's current performance and explores what might lie ahead for the leading cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin's Recent Price Action: A Brief Overview
Bitcoin's impressive ascent towards the $100,000 mark was temporarily halted with the most recent crash, which occurred in the wake of the asset approaching its all-time high on November 22. The drop has led to the formation of a potential swing low at $92,620 on Monday, with Bitcoin showing early signs of a recovery.
Despite the correction, Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) remains up by more than 130% year-to-date, reflecting the continued bullish sentiment surrounding the cryptocurrency. Many analysts have speculated that the fourth quarter of 2024 could see Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) pushing towards a six-digit price point, and this recent drop may be part of a healthy consolidation before another leg up.
Bullish Long-Term Outlook
Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market remains unparalleled. The digital asset’s market capitalization hovers around $1.93 trillion, representing over 40% of the entire cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin’s resilience is fueled by its status as the first decentralized digital currency and its wide acceptance as "digital gold" and a store of value.
The network’s security, scalability, and decentralized nature have kept Bitcoin at the forefront of the crypto market since its inception in 2009. In addition, Bitcoin continues to be a preferred hedge against inflation, a narrative that remains relevant as inflation concerns persist globally.
Furthermore, Bitcoin’s role as an uncorrelated asset has also contributed to its growing reputation as a safe haven. As Bitcoin’s popularity expands and its network upgrades continue to improve its efficiency and functionality, the long-term outlook remains highly positive.
Upcoming Key Developments:
The Bitcoin network has seen several crucial upgrades in the past few years, including the Taproot upgrade, which significantly improved Bitcoin’s smart contract functionality and privacy features. Upgrades like these are key to ensuring that Bitcoin remains secure, decentralized, and scalable, with more improvements planned for the future. As more institutional investors and major companies embrace Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ), the demand for the cryptocurrency is expected to continue growing.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s recent price action reveals both bearish and bullish signals. As the price hit a local low of $92,620, the market is at a crucial juncture. A failure to hold above the $92,000-$93,000 support zone could see Bitcoin testing lower levels, with potential downside targets near the $87,000 region. If Bitcoin breaks below $87,000, a further decline towards the $70,000-$75,000 range could follow.
However, there are also significant bullish signs in Bitcoin’s current price structure. Despite the recent drop, Bitcoin is holding above key support levels, and the RSI (Relative Strength Index) remains above 50, which suggests that there is still potential for upward momentum. A bounce from current levels could push Bitcoin back towards the $95,000 level, with a crucial resistance at $95,666. If Bitcoin clears this hurdle, it could set the stage for a recovery to $100,000 and beyond.
Will Bitcoin Recover or Face Further Declines?
Bitcoin’s price movements have been volatile, and this recent crash may simply be part of a healthy consolidation phase before the next major rally. Given that Bitcoin is holding well above support zones and has maintained significant year-to-date gains, it is likely that the cryptocurrency will make another attempt to reach $100,000 in the near future. However, this will depend heavily on broader market conditions and investor sentiment.
If Bitcoin breaks the $95,666 resistance level, there is a strong chance that it could set new all-time highs by the end of the year, pushing closer to $100,000. On the other hand, if Bitcoin fails to reclaim bullish momentum and breaks below the $87,000 support, it could face a deeper pullback, with $70,000 being a possible target.
Structure broken! How much can BTC go?Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📉 After breaking the minor low marked in red at $95,000, the bears have already taken over in the short term.
However, BTC will remain bullish in the medium term as long as the last major low in blue at $85,000 holds.
Thus, as BTC approaches the $85,000 zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups to form at the rejection.
If and only if $85,000 is broken downward, a bigger bearish correction towards the $75,000 demand zone would be expected.
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen and why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Bitcoin can rebound up from support area to 101K pointsHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. By observing the chart, we can see that the price some time ago rebounded from the support level, which coincided with the buyer zone and dropped to 85000 points. After this, the price turned around and started to trades inside the wedge, where it later rose to 89400 level and broke this level. Next, BTC rose to the resistance line of the wedge, after which it turned around and made a correction to the support line of the wedge, after which it continued to grow. Soon, the price broke the 89400 support level one more time, made a retest, and later made a correction to this level again and then bounced up. Price rose to the resistance line of the wedge and soon exited from this pattern. Then the price reached the current support level, which coincided with the support area and broke this level. After this, BTC started to trades inside the wedge, where it reached the top part of the range, but a not long time ago, BTC made a correction to the 97300 support level. So, in my opinion, Bitcoin will fall to the support area and then start to grow to the top part of the range. Then it can exit from this pattern and continue to move up next, therefore I set my TP at 101000 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀