The "Good" Crypto Narrative Is OverIt's been a while since I've done a bit of a deep-dive on this market and why I don't believe it'll sustain a significantly higher value in the future. I no longer have the stamina to write a long-winded post. It's exhausting at this point, and I don't need to reiterate it. Instead, I'll summarize recent developments and their impact on the crypto narrative.
1) The TOTAL crypto market cap currently rests below the all-time high from 2021. This is even including stablecoins. There is $144B worth of USDT currently in circulation. In 2021, that number was $80B. Meanwhile, stock indexes and several individual stocks are significantly up from their last peaks. From a "store of value" standpoint, this doesn't look great, particularly factoring in inflation. Adjusted for inflation, Bitcoin itself is sitting below its inflation-adjusted 2021 all-time high, which is around $84K.
2) Bitcoin active addresses are back to 2017 levels and BELOW the levels from even the previous bear market! This implies that "authentic" adoption has stagnated and begun a decline. studio.glassnode.com
3) In the eyes of a growing number of investors, Trump and Elon's crypto push has only solidified the crypto market as a joke and as a global symbol of greed and corruption.
4) Gold has far outpaced Bitcoin as a store of value during this recent period of turbulence, disproving Bitcoin as a possible safe haven. Here is the Bitcoin/Gold chart for reference:
5) Still, if cryptocurrencies completely ceased to exist, there would be no net-negative effect on the world. In fact, it may be a net-positive. Unless this suddenly changes, crypto does not have any real world value. You cannot say this about most MIL:1T + markets: If most major companies and resources ceased to exist, we'd see a very significant (mostly negative) impact on our daily lives, almost immediately.
In summary, I don't think people will be coming in droves to invest in this market. I think that ship has sailed. The opportunity for it to prove itself has waned, and it has been overtaken by largely bad actors. If anything, I think people are more likely to be forced to buy it than enter the market willingly.
From a technical standpoint, a breakdown from the big uptrend channel in the chart above would likely confirm that the top is in.
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Beware, a crypto narrative still exists, but it's only the one fed to us by those in power. It will be important not to fall for it. I worry that people will be forced to own cryptocurrencies, at the expense of their freedom. And even in a situation where crypto prices continue to increase, it is unlikely to be seen positively.
Once we graduate from these strange and confusing times, rife with dissociation, monopolies, grift, and power consolidation, it seems more likely that humanity will look at crypto as part of an uncomfortable past. If we never move on to more optimistic times, and things continue to become more dystopian, well, then that would be a time where crypto adopters can say, "hey, we were right!" But...at what cost?
Regardless, it will always be possible to profit from the volatility, hence my attempts at trading a little recently, with a focus on Litecoin. So, trading opportunities will present themselves, which will keep at least some people interested in this market. I think it is unlikely to be enough liquidity to sustain significant new all-time highs.
Here is my last big post, where I detailed more reasoning - this was prior to the Bitcoin ETF's:
And here is a recent post, where I describe how my own thoughts about the market evolved, from when I first entered in 2017 to the present:
As always, this represents only my opinion, and is meant for speculation and entertainment only, not as financial advice. There are many other opinions out there. It is your responsibility to develop critical thinking.
Thanks for reading as always!
-Victor Cobra
BTC-D
Bitcoin 1-Year Pattern- The art of trading lies in analyzing the past to anticipate the future.
On the yearly timeframe, BTC has consistently followed this cycle:
- 1 year of bearish decline.🟥.
- 1 year of consolidation and bottoming out.🟩.
- 1 year of steady growth.🟩.
- 1 year of explosive upward movement.🟩.
based simply on that :
- 2025 is poised to be a breakout year for BTC.
- 2026 should be the next bear market.
- Everything changes, nothing lasts forever, but as a trader, you must stay on course.
- Don't let market noise shake your confidence.
Happy Tr4Ding !
LONG $900BMorning fellas,
I have been getting some spite, and about 75% of people who follow me stopped liking or commenting on my posts just because I've been sold since $100k and calling non-stop for this drop.
The drop came, and the moonfellas out there finally gave in.
Now it's time to look for longs and nothing better than a few select alt coins. I'm thinking $888B to $900B should hold and then we fly. Check trajectory line.
You people need to stop only posting that it's going up to the moon, and be realistic about things. Buy blood not green, buy LINK at $7 and not $25. Buy dot at $2 and not $15, and so on.
Trade thirsty, my friends.
15-Min Bitcoin Setup – Quick Scalping Opportunity?First of all, I must say that this is a short-term analysis in a 15-minute time frame . Please be careful .
Let's take risks while respecting capital management. Be sure to respect capital management.
Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) is currently trading in the support zone($84,120_$81,500) , Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) near the lower line of the ascending channel .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that Bitcoin could complete its 5 bearish waves near the lower line of the ascending channel .
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD+) between Consecutive Valleys .
I expect Bitcoin to be able to rise to at least $85,400.
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $86,397_$85,760
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $84,262_$83,336
Note: One of the reasons for Bitcoin's decline is the decline in US indices such as CME_MINI:NQ1! , SP:SPX , and TVC:DJI .
Note: If Bitcoin falls below $83,000, we can expect more dumps.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Speculating Bitcoin's Cycle Top!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📚 Back to basics.
🗓️ This is the BTC monthly log chart.
📊 By applying two simple channels—one short-term (🔴) and one long-term (🔵)—we see both upper bounds aligning right around the 💰 $300,000 mark. A classic case of confluence at a key psychological level 🧠✨
👇 What do you think—are we headed there this cycle, or is it just hopium? Drop your thoughts in the comments!
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
BTC in 17 April 2025Potential Major Move on Thursday, April 17, 2025 📍
📊 Based on an analysis of historical Bitcoin chart averages and similar patterns, there is a likelihood of a significant price movement on this date.
This analysis is conducted using technical analysis and a detailed examination of Bitcoin’s movement averages. It suggests that approximately every 150 days after the start of a neutral trend, we can expect a sharp upward or downward move that sets the stage for the main trend in the future.
📅 As of the current date, March 29, 2025, there are about 18 days left until this significant event.
You can follow the results of this analysis and the conducted review on TradingView on the specified date.
LAYERUSDT → Far retest of key resistance at 1.400BINANCE:LAYERUSDT.P is forming a realization within the uptrend. The coin is stronger than the market, but the initial reaction to the strong resistance at 1.400 may be in the form of a false breakout and a pullback to 1.275 or 0.5 fibo
Since the opening of the session, LAYERUSDT has passed the daily ATR, but after reaching the resistance, the coin may not have the potential to continue rising. Liquidity above the 1.400 level may hold this area and prevent the coin from breaking through this zone the first time around.
Bitcoin is testing trend resistance at this time and could likely form a rebound or a continuation of the decline, which could affect altcoins accordingly!
Resistance levels: 1.400
Support levels: 1.2932, 1.2747, 0.5 fibo
BUT ! Everything depends on the price reaction at 1.400. A sharp and distributive approach with 90% probability will end in a false breakout and correction to the mentioned targets.
But, if LAYER starts to slow down and consolidate in front of the level, an attempt of breakout and struggle above 1.400 is possible and further movement will depend on it.
Regards R. Linda!
Bitcoin Outlook after the Dip. What to expect NOW?Finally, the price broke the wedge, and the price experienced a significant drop. I think now is the time for Bitcoin to rise again to 89K . STRONG SUPPORT 0.382=82500
Give me some energy !!
✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
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✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
A new ATH is waiting for Bitcoin (2D)This analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section
This analysis is still valid.
When everyone is discouraged and caught up in emotions, the BehDark team relies on the chart to publish analyses.
We have also added a new target to the chart. Based on recent candles in the multi-timeframe, there is a possibility of reaching 120K.
We are still waiting for the green zone and looking for buy/long positions within it.
A daily candle closing below the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
Rising wedge breakdown may take BTC below 84K and lowerCRYPTO:BTCUSD has broken down from a bearish wedge in hourly. I expect it to do at least 38.2% retracement around 84k, though it could likely go lower around 50% as well which is around 82,600. Closing below 80k might open doors to resumption of downside trend.
Long Entry Signal for BTC/USDTBTC/USDT - Bullish Setup (Daily Chart)
Symbol: BTC
Timeframe: Daily
Analysis:
MLR > SMA: The MLR (blue) is above the SMA (pink), signaling a bullish trend.
MLR > BB Center: MLR exceeds the Bollinger Bands Center Line (orange), showing strong bullish momentum.
PSAR: PSAR dots (black) are below the price, reinforcing the uptrend.
Price > SMA 200: Price is above the 200-period SMA (red), indicating long-term bullish strength.
Trade Idea:
Entry: Consider a long position at the daily close.
Stop Loss: Place SL at the current PSAR level to limit downside risk.
Follow Me: Follow me for exit or profit-taking opportunities.
Outlook: All indicators align for a bullish move. Stay alert for reversal signals or trend shifts.
Risk Warning: Not financial advice, trade at your own risk
BITCOIN BEARISH WEDGE BREAKOUT|SHORT|
✅BITCOIN made a bearish
Breakout of the bearish wedge
Pattern which reinforces our
Bearish bias and we will be
Expecting a further move down
SHORT🔥
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
BTC/USDT: Strategic Entry Points for a Potential Bullish ReversaAnalysis of Key Positions in the BTC/USDT Chart
The chart provided shows a 30-minute timeframe for Bitcoin (BTC) against Tether (USDT) on Binance. The chart includes two labeled positions ("Position 1" and "Position 2") that highlight key areas of interest for traders. Below is a detailed breakdown of these positions:
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1. Position 1
- Location: Near the horizontal green support line, around the $83,600 level.
- Significance:
- Support Zone: This area acts as a strong support level, where the price has previously bounced back after testing it. The horizontal green line indicates that this level has held firm multiple times, suggesting it is a critical zone for buyers.
- Potential Entry Point: Traders can consider entering long positions near this support level if they believe the price will reverse higher. This is a classic "buy the dip" strategy.
- Stop-Loss Placement: To manage risk, traders should place stop-loss orders slightly below this support level (e.g., $83,200–$83,400). If the price breaks below this level, it could signal a continuation of the downtrend.
2. Position 2
- Location: Near the descending blue trendline, around the $85,000–$86,000 range.
- Significance:
- Resistance Zone: The blue trendline acts as dynamic resistance, and the price has been bouncing off this level multiple times. A breakout above this trendline would be a strong bullish signal, indicating that buyers have overcome short-term selling pressure.
- Potential Entry Point: Traders can consider entering long positions after a confirmed breakout above the trendline. A breakout is typically confirmed when the price closes above the trendline on a candlestick.
- Stop-Loss Placement: For safety, traders should place stop-loss orders just below the trendline (e.g., $84,800–$85,000). This ensures that the trade is exited if the breakout fails and the price reverses lower.
---
Comparison Between Position 1 and Position 2
- Position 1 (Near Support):
- Risk Profile: Lower risk, as it is closer to a well-defined support level.
- Reward Potential: Moderate, as the upside target would likely be the next resistance level (e.g., the trendline or Fibonacci retracement levels).
- Strategy: Suitable for traders who want to enter at a cheaper price but are willing to take on some downside risk.
- Position 2 (Near Trendline Breakout):
- Risk Profile: Higher risk, as it requires waiting for a confirmed breakout.
- Reward Potential: Higher, as a successful breakout could lead to a stronger upward move.
- Strategy: Suitable for traders who prefer confirmation before entering long positions.
---
Actionable Insights
1. For Short-Term Traders:
- Entry Strategy: Look for pullbacks to the $83,600 support level to enter long positions. Use tight stop-loss orders below the support to manage risk.
- Exit Strategy: Set profit targets based on Fibonacci retracement levels or previous highs (e.g., $85,000–$86,000).
2. For Long-Term Traders:
- Entry Strategy: Wait for a confirmed breakout above the blue trendline ($85,000–$86,000) before entering long positions. This ensures that the bullish trend is sustainable.
- Exit Strategy: Use trailing stops or take profits at key resistance levels (e.g., $87,000–$88,000).
---
Risk Management
- Always use stop-loss orders to protect against unexpected price movements.
- Consider using position sizing to limit exposure to market volatility.
- Monitor volume and momentum indicators to confirm the strength of any breakout or reversal.
---
Conclusion
The two positions highlighted in the chart provide distinct trading opportunities:
1. Position 1 (Near Support): A potential entry point for aggressive traders looking to buy the dip near $83,600.
2. Position 2 (Near Trendline Breakout): A safer entry point for traders who prefer confirmation before entering long positions near $85,000–$86,000.
By combining these positions with proper risk management and technical analysis, traders can increase their chances of success in the BTC/USDT market.
---
Final Answer: The two positions indicate key trading opportunities:
- Position 1: Near the $83,600 support level, suitable for traders willing to buy the dip.
- Position 2: Near the $85,000–$86,000 trendline breakout, ideal for traders seeking confirmation before entering long positions.
$BTC multi-timeframe analysisCRYPTOCAP:BTC is currently at a critical juncture, with three distinct trends emerging on the same chart:
Weekly Bearish Downtrend (Green):
This 1W bearish channel remains intact. Despite bullish optimism, CRYPTOCAP:BTC has not broken out of this green channel, meaning we are technically still in a bearish trend.
Daily Recovery Bullish Uptrend (Red):
On the 1D timeframe, CRYPTOCAP:BTC has been following a recovery bullish channel. However, this channel is now colliding with the top of the bearish weekly channel, creating significant resistance.
Hourly Bearish Downtrend (Yellow):
A new bearish downtrend on the 1H timeframe has formed as a result of CRYPTOCAP:BTC failing to break through the top of the 1W green bearish falling wedge.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario 1:
If CRYPTOCAP:BTC breaks through the $90k resistance level and exits the weekly bearish channel (green), it could signal a strong long position and confirm the end of the downtrend, marking a reversal.
Bearish Scenario 2:
If CRYPTOCAP:BTC continues to follow the yellow downtrend and breaks down through the red recovery channel, this would invalidate the recovery and indicate further downside potential.
Outlook and Timeframe:
In my bearish warning from February 2025, I projected the end of the bearish consolidation by May 2025. If the bearish Scenario 2 plays out, it will confirm that this early warning was once again accurate.
However, if CRYPTOCAP:BTC manages to pump above $90k and sustain this level for at least a week, it would signal an early consolidation (one month ahead of schedule) and suggest that we are out of trouble.
Conclusion:
Watch for a confirmed breakout or breakdown.
Patience is key; wait for confirmation before making significant moves.
As always, DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
Bitcoin - This Is Just Wonderful!Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) creates textbook market stucture:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
The entire stock market is selling off significantly but Bitcoin and most cryptocurrencies are still holding their strong levels. This is clearly a sign of bullish strength and even if we see a retest of the previous all time high, the overall uptrend remains perfectly valid over the next months.
Levels to watch: $70.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
BTCUSD: Such consolidations end up very well for Bitcoin.Bitcoin just turned bearish again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.578, MACD = -918.200, ADX = 29.021) and with 1W still neutral, we are again on strong long term buy levels. Today's chart is yet another illustration of the market dynamics and the similarities with the previous Cycle. The market is well on its way towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension target, which now translates to $175,000. Unless the 1W MA50 support breaks, BTC is a buy opportunity on every pullback.
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BTC - Is BTC going lower?Since the end of January 2025, BTC has been in a downtrend. However, over the last couple of weeks, BTC has been following an upward trend (rising wedge). This rising wedge has now been broken, as it tested the downward sloping trendline that has been in place since the end of January.
On the daily timeframe, the Stochastic RSI is crossing down from the overbought zone, indicating that the momentum is shifting to the downside. This suggests that bearish pressure could persist in the coming days or even weeks.
While it is possible that BTC could recover from this level and target higher prices. however, my base case is that BTC will continue to form a bearish structure over the next few days or weeks, potentially making a higher low or even a lower low. Time will reveal how the price action unfolds. Until then, the bias remains bearish unless proven otherwise.
It is important to be aware of your risk management when opening positions at this moment, as market conditions can be volatile and unpredictable.
Thanks for your support.
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BTC/USD 1D chart reviewHello everyone, let's look at the 1D BTC chart to USD, in this situation we can see how the price moves in the downward trend channel, in which we turn back at the top edge of the channel. Going further, let's check the places of potential target for the price:
T1 = 87100 $
T2 = 89945 $
Т3 = 93556 $
Let's go to Stop-Loss now in case of further declines on the market:
SL1 = 81739 $
SL2 = 77307 $
SL3 = 74353 $
Looking at the RSI indicator, we see
As we came again to the center of the range at which we could again experience the price of price.