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BTC-D

Bitcoin: Projecting the 5th and Final Phase of the Bull Market ### **Introduction** This report provides an in-depth analysis of the historical and projected market behavior of Bitcoin, focusing on cyclical market patterns and emphasizing both bull and bear phases. By dissecting previous cycles, this study aims to shed light on potential market movements, offering a roadmap for the 5th and final phase of the current bull market cycle, as per my expectations. ### **Historical Overview & Cycle Breakdown** Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited well-defined market cycles consisting of accumulation, rapid growth, corrections, and subsequent recoveries. Each cycle presents unique behaviors influenced by macroeconomic factors, adoption rates, technological developments, and regulatory impacts. **Key Phases Highlighted:** 1. **Accumulation Phase:** This phase, often occurring during market lows, signifies periods of relatively low activity where investors accumulate Bitcoin at lower prices. It is marked by low volatility and slow upward movement. 2. **Expansion (Bull Run) Phase:** Characterized by significant price growth, this phase attracts a surge of new investors and increased trading volume. Historically, it has ended with a parabolic price surge, as seen in prior cycles. 3. **Correction and Bear Market Phase:** The market retraces following the explosive growth, leading to a prolonged downturn or 'crypto winter.' This phase often involves a return to support levels established in previous cycles, accompanied by investor uncertainty. **Annotated Analysis:** The attached chart illustrates these phases through visual annotations, showing multiple cycles and their respective movements. Each major bull and bear phase has been marked, alongside critical resistance and support levels that have influenced market sentiment over the years. ### **Current Bull Market Context** **Expected 5th and Final Phase:** The current bull market cycle appears to be entering its 5th and final phase, as marked on the chart. Key indicators leading to this projection include: - **Momentum Analysis:** Recent price movements suggest a steady upward trajectory indicative of a final parabolic surge before an anticipated correction. - **Resistance Levels and Trendlines:** The yellow horizontal lines represent critical resistance levels that Bitcoin must break to maintain its bullish momentum. Historical analysis suggests that each cycle typically ends near these zones, followed by corrections. - **Macro Indicators and On-Chain Data:** The green arrows highlight potential momentum shifts, emphasizing buyer activity and renewed confidence in the market. ### **Projections for the Final Phase** Based on historical data and current market behavior, my analysis projects that the 5th phase will see a peak price surge, potentially reaching a new all-time high. However, this growth phase is expected to be followed by a significant correction, bringing Bitcoin prices back to key support levels outlined on the chart. **Factors to Monitor:** 1. **Market Sentiment and News Events:** External factors, including macroeconomic news, regulatory announcements, and institutional participation, can heavily influence price movements. 2. **Adoption Trends:** Growing adoption and use cases for Bitcoin and blockchain technology could further propel the market upward during this phase. 3. **On-Chain Metrics:** Metrics such as transaction volumes, wallet distributions, and miner activity should be monitored closely for shifts in market behavior. ### **Concluding Remarks** This analysis aims to offer a comprehensive overview of market behavior, assisting community members in making informed decisions. While historical trends offer a glimpse into potential future movements, market conditions remain volatile. Therefore, cautious and strategic investment decisions are recommended as we enter this pivotal stage in Bitcoin's cycle. --- **Disclaimer:** This report is intended for informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry risk, and individuals should conduct their own research and consult with professional advisors before making investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Yassine_Houd
6
$BTC - Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic Model #2Bitcoin is possibly in Phase C of Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic Model #2 Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic Model #2 describes a market phase where accumulation occurs before a significant upward trend. This model is often used to identify potential reversals and entry points, particularly in a downtrend that shows signs of accumulation. Here’s a breakdown of the stages and key components in Schematic Model #2: Phase A: Stopping the Downtrend -Preliminary Support (PS): First sign of buying interest that slows the downtrend. Volume increases slightly as buyers step in. - Selling Climax (SC): The price experiences a sharp decline, reaching an extreme low with high volume. This often marks the lowest point of the downtrend. - Automatic Rally (AR): After the SC, the price rebounds due to reduced selling pressure and some buying interest. The high of this rally defines the upper range of accumulation. - Secondary Test (ST): Price revisits the SC area to test supply, often with lower volume than during the SC. This validates that selling pressure has weakened. Phase B: Building a Cause - Phase B involves a prolonged consolidation phase. It acts as a "cause" that fuels the future uptrend. - Multiple Tests and Shakeouts: Within this phase, the price may test both the upper and lower boundaries several times. These tests show attempts to trap weak hands. - Sign of Strength (SOS) and Minor Back-Up (LPSY): As Phase B progresses, price action becomes tighter, indicating stronger buying interest at higher lows. Phase C: The Spring - Spring or Shakeout: Price temporarily dips below the support level established by the SC and ST. This move is designed to flush out remaining sellers and weak holders. - Test of Supply: Following the Spring, the price should test the previous support level but with low volume, indicating minimal selling pressure. This test confirms the spring’s effectiveness in absorbing supply. Phase D: The Markup Phase - Sign of Strength (SOS): Price rallies with increasing volume, breaking above the AR and ST levels, signaling accumulation completion. - Last Point of Support (LPS): After the breakout, the price may pull back briefly to test the former resistance (now support). These points are often low-risk entries. - Higher Highs and Higher Lows: Confirm the beginning of a new uptrend. Phase E: The Uptrend - Markup Phase: The price enters a sustained uptrend, often breaking previous resistance levels and forming higher highs. - Continuation of the Rally: This phase is characterized by strong demand and may continue until the distribution phase begins. Wyckoff's Accumulation Schematic #2 is commonly seen in longer consolidations and is effective for identifying potential reversals. This schematic differs from Schematic #1 mainly in the presence of a Spring, which is more aggressive and serves as a key entry confirmation.
by Tealstreet
The point of observation is whether it breaks out of 87.8K-93.5K Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a good day today. ------------------------------------- When a new candle is created on the 1W chart, I will update it again. - (BTCUSDT 1D chart) The StochRSI indicator is showing a downward trend in the overbought zone. Accordingly, the point of observation is whether it can receive support and rise around 2.618 (87814.27) ~ 1.618 (89050.0). If it falls below 2.618 (87814.27), the key is whether it can rise with support near the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart. If it is confirmed that it is supported near 79.9K-80.9K, it is thought that a pullback pattern may be created, so you should pay close attention to the movement at this time. - However, if the StochRSI indicator falls near the 50 point, volatility may occur, so you should be careful about a rebound. This volatility period is expected to last until November 20, so caution is required when trading. In order to maintain this upward trend, 1st: 68393.48-71335.47 2nd: 57694.27-61099.25 It must rise with support near the 1st and 2nd above. Therefore, until then, I think you should focus on how to lower the average purchase price or how to increase the holding amount and develop a trading strategy. - (BTC.D 1M chart) I think that for the altcoin bull market to start, the BTC dominance must fall below 55.01 and remain there or show a downward trend. Otherwise, if the BTC dominance shows an upward trend, the altcoins are likely to gradually move sideways or show a downward trend because funds will be concentrated on BTC. (USDT.D 1M chart) If the USDT dominance falls below 4.97 and remains there or shows a downward trend, the coin market is likely to create a bull market. However, whether it is a bull market where all coins (tokens) are rising together or a bull market where only BTC is rising can be roughly determined by whether BTC dominance is falling or rising. - Have a good time. Thank you. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Big picture I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC. (BTCUSD 12M chart) Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been rising since 2015 following a pattern. In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market. Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025. - (LOG chart) Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the increase is decreasing. Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective. Therefore, it is expected that prices below 44K-48K will not be seen in the future. - The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015. In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend. The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019. Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026. - No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving. It is up to you how to view and respond to this. If the ATH is renewed, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized. However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as support and resistance. The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to generate Fibonacci. Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous to use it for trading strategies. 1st: 44234.54 2nd: 61383.23 3rd: 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting) 4th: 134018.28 151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting) 5th: 178910.15 -----------------
by readCrypto
GFT has set the stage for a trend changeToday I want to consider the position on GFT, which, along with VIB, I am considering to work first. The second half of the quarter opened above 0.015, which gives a signal to maintain purchases. The re-trading in the range of 0.0150-75 is almost finished, and when fixed above the upper limit, you can prepare for a transition to the flat range near the key level for volatility growth of 0.025 +-0.0025. In case of a successful breakdown of 0.025, the road will open to 0.035 and 0.050. In a positive scenario, a new monthly candle will open above 0.025, in which case the continuation of the trend will be quite confident. With a more negative market from the 0.025 test, we can see a pullback, in which case a new opportunity will be formed to profitably top up the position in order to continue the trend in the new month. As I have mentioned more than once, GFT has very high liquidity due to its wide presence on exchanges and the availability of derivatives. The only thing keeping the price from the rocket is the monitoring tag on the binance, which I think will be removed in the future. A similar reversal pattern was worked out on VITE. Technically, the picture is similar.
GLong
by Strateg_
Analyzing BTCUSDT: Next Potential Breakout Zones - Bitcoin◳◱ On the $BTC/ CRYPTOCAP:USDT chart, the Trend Reversal pattern suggests momentum building up for a significant move. Traders might observe resistance around 85635.01 | 90900 | 105565 and support near 70970.01 | 61570 | 46905. Entering trades at 90343.99 could be strategic, aiming for the next resistance level. ◰◲ General info : ▣ Name: Bitcoin ▣ Rank: 1 ▣ Exchanges: Binance, Kucoin, Bybit, Huobipro, Gateio, Mexc ▣ Category/Sector: Payments - Currencies ▣ Overview: Bitcoin is the first distributed consensus-based, censorship-resistant, permissionless, peer-to-peer payment settlement network with a provably scarce, programmable, native currency. Bitcoin (BTC), the native asset of the Bitcoin blockchain, is the world's first digital currency without a central bank or administrator. The Bitcoin network is an emergent decentralized monetary institution that exists through the interplay between full nodes, miners, and developers. It is set by a social contract that is created and opted into by the users of the network and hardened through game theory and cryptography. Bitcoin is the first, oldest, and largest cryptocurrency in the world. ◰◲ Technical Metrics : ▣ Mrkt Price: 90343.99 ₮ ▣ 24HVol: 1,945,711,003.703 ₮ ▣ 24H Chng: -0.456% ▣ 7-Days Chng: 13.30% ▣ 1-Month Chng: 34.19% ▣ 3-Months Chng: 51.53% ◲◰ Pivot Points - Levels : ◥ Resistance: 85635.01 | 90900 | 105565 ◢ Support: 70970.01 | 61570 | 46905 ◱◳ Indicators recommendation : ▣ Oscillators: NEUTRAL ▣ Moving Averages: STRONG_BUY ◰◲ Technical Indicators Summary : BUY ◲◰ Sharpe Ratios : ▣ Last 30D: 6.34 ▣ Last 90D: 3.62 ▣ Last 1-Y: 1.91 ▣ Last 3-Y: 0.51 ◲◰ Volatility : ▣ Last 30D: 0.58 ▣ Last 90D: 0.49 ▣ Last 1-Y: 0.53 ▣ Last 3-Y: 0.55 ◳◰ Market Sentiment Index : ▣ News sentiment score is N/A ▣ Twitter sentiment score is N/A ▣ Reddit sentiment score is N/A ▣ In-depth BTCUSDT technical analysis on Tradingview TA page ▣ What do you think of this analysis? Share your insights and let's discuss in the comments below. Your like, follow and support would be greatly appreciated! ◲ Disclaimer Please note that the information and publications provided are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, trading, or any other type of advice or recommendation. We encourage you to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. The use of the information provided is solely at your own risk. ▣ Welcome to the home of charting big: TradingView Benefit from a ton of financial analysis features, instruments and data. Have a look around, and if you do choose to go with an upgraded plan, you'll get up to $30. Discover it here - affiliate link -
by Crypto2AF
Don't Miss Out on BTC/USDT - Bitcoin.◳◱ On the $BTC/ CRYPTOCAP:USDT chart, the Trend Reversal pattern suggests indications that the trend may be gaining or losing strength. Traders might observe resistance around 85635.01 | 90900 | 105565 and support near 70970.01 | 61570 | 46905. Entering trades at 90395.99 could be strategic, aiming for the next resistance level. ◰◲ General info : ▣ Name: Bitcoin ▣ Rank: 1 ▣ Exchanges: Binance, Kucoin, Bybit, Huobipro, Gateio, Mexc ▣ Category/Sector: Payments - Currencies ▣ Overview: Bitcoin is the first distributed consensus-based, censorship-resistant, permissionless, peer-to-peer payment settlement network with a provably scarce, programmable, native currency. Bitcoin (BTC), the native asset of the Bitcoin blockchain, is the world's first digital currency without a central bank or administrator. The Bitcoin network is an emergent decentralized monetary institution that exists through the interplay between full nodes, miners, and developers. It is set by a social contract that is created and opted into by the users of the network and hardened through game theory and cryptography. Bitcoin is the first, oldest, and largest cryptocurrency in the world. ◰◲ Technical Metrics : ▣ Mrkt Price: 90395.99 ₮ ▣ 24HVol: 1,969,087,111.114 ₮ ▣ 24H Chng: -0.354% ▣ 7-Days Chng: 13.27% ▣ 1-Month Chng: 34.16% ▣ 3-Months Chng: 51.67% ◲◰ Pivot Points - Levels : ◥ Resistance: 85635.01 | 90900 | 105565 ◢ Support: 70970.01 | 61570 | 46905 ◱◳ Indicators recommendation : ▣ Oscillators: NEUTRAL ▣ Moving Averages: STRONG_BUY ◰◲ Technical Indicators Summary : BUY ◲◰ Sharpe Ratios : ▣ Last 30D: 6.34 ▣ Last 90D: 3.62 ▣ Last 1-Y: 1.91 ▣ Last 3-Y: 0.51 ◲◰ Volatility : ▣ Last 30D: 0.58 ▣ Last 90D: 0.49 ▣ Last 1-Y: 0.53 ▣ Last 3-Y: 0.55 ◳◰ Market Sentiment Index : ▣ News sentiment score is N/A ▣ Twitter sentiment score is N/A ▣ Reddit sentiment score is N/A ▣ In-depth BTCUSDT technical analysis on Tradingview TA page ▣ What do you think of this analysis? Share your insights and let's discuss in the comments below. Your like, follow and support would be greatly appreciated! ◲ Disclaimer Please note that the information and publications provided are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, trading, or any other type of advice or recommendation. We encourage you to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. The use of the information provided is solely at your own risk. ▣ Welcome to the home of charting big: TradingView Benefit from a ton of financial analysis features, instruments and data. Have a look around, and if you do choose to go with an upgraded plan, you'll get up to $30. Discover it here - affiliate link -
by Crypto2AF
Bitcoin Has Another Bull Run !Bitcoin has shown signs and patterns in the daily time frame that can be analyzed with the current data. It looks like a diametric has finished (A) and then the price has entered a bullish phase. In the bullish phase, we have an ABC/WXY whose A/W has the signs of a diamond diametric. We expect waves X and Y because the time of wave A is much larger than the current pattern (A/W). The green range could be the start of a bull run in Bitcoin. Closing a daily candle below the invalidation level will violate the analysis. Note : This is only a possible scenario, please do not forget to manage risk For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
5
Explosive Alert: FARM on the RadarToday could be your chance to secure up to 300% profits if you load up your FARM bags in time! The token is gaining massive momentum, rapidly heading toward a $100M market cap, with $200M already in sight. The momentum is real, and the push is growing stronger by the minute. Now is the perfect opportunity to position yourself before the next big surge. Don’t miss the chance to ride this rocket and lock in your profits while you still can! 🌟🚀 COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSD
Long
by SophiaAnderson
Harvest Finance FARM: A Must-Watch OpportunityAll eyes are on Harvest Finance (FARM), the next big contender in the crypto market. The rally is about to ignite, with initial targets set at $140 and potential to soar up to $300 in the near future. Harvest Finance is renowned for its robust farming ecosystem and consistent yield generation, attracting attention from investors and p#mp groups alike. The momentum is building, and the expanding market cap could propel FARM to new heights in no time. Act now, load up your bag, and stay alert. FARM is primed to skyrocket, and those who move quickly will reap the biggest rewards. ⏰ The time is now! Don’t miss this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. 🚀 BINANCE:BTCUSD COINBASE:ETHUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD
Long
by SophiaAnderson
Attempt to move the month by ASTIn addition to the risky option for scalping, which can bring profits commensurate with the spent PROS, I am still considering more reliable options for work, without the monitoring, VIB and AST tag. AST has an incomplete issue, which is a pitfall and creates a risk of price drawdown in the event of an increase in the number of coins in circulation. There was also a delisting with OKX, which raises suspicions. However, no coins have been added yet and the exit from the triangle down turned out to be false. An optimistic overall market picture also contributes to purchases. In addition, the month and, more importantly, the second half of the quarter opened above the key support of 0.75. Technically, we have a signal for an attempt to reverse the annual candle, which is happening now on the alt, with an attempt at a new annual high. In the case of working out the exit from the triangle upwards, the minimum goal is to surpass the previous month with a test of the range 0.125-150. If a new month opens above 0.125 before the end of the year, there is a high probability of a 0.25 retest. A volatile scenario with a breakdown of 150 is also possible this month. The breakdown of the descending triangle has already occurred, which gives a signal for a trend reversal. In addition to VIB and AST, I consider GFT as a fairly safe investment option. I still think that the monitoring tag is a temporary measure for him to work out loyalties. High liquidity due to the presence on many exchanges and the availability of derivatives provide the token with a growth potential of several x's. If the tag is changed, the market reaction will not take long.
Long
by Strateg_
OAX continues to prepare to work out the accumulated potentialToday, OAX can continue to please with profits. The token ends, together with vib, the cancellation of the bearish trend formed on the weekly and monthly charts. In the process of investing against this trend, he gave several impulses of 50%+ and more than ten opportunities to earn 30%+. In my opinion, such trading is much more interesting than a trend with blurred goals and a long drawdown in the event of a market collapse, so I consider such coins to trade first. But today, in addition to the opportunities for profitable scalping, I want to consider the main medium-term picture and the growing probability of the main wave of growth. As I expected, before opening a new monthly candle, an attempt was made to retest the 0.25 level, which is key for the growth of volatility, but the negative overall dynamics of the market did not provide sufficient volatility. However, the gradual growth of the trend accelerated, which allowed the second half of the quarter to open above 0.175, providing a clear technical signal for a transition to the range 0.25-35 and growth in the second half of the quarter. Indirectly, this hints at the fact that delisting of the token is probably not in danger yet. To date, there is still an opportunity to break through to 0.25 this week in case of sufficient volatility in the market. The signal for this may be a move over the ether of yesterday's day or a hike on the alt index above 9.75% with an attempt to break 10%. In the absence of sufficient volatility, we can expect a small pullback at the beginning of the week to draw a shadow on a new weekly candle under the fear of delisting, characteristic of all coins with the monitoring tag, and a subsequent powerful breakdown in the second half of the week as part of a trend change on the weekly chart to bullish. To understand the medium-term picture and growth potential, it is worth considering the monthly and weekly chart where the second bottom has formed. On the monthly chart, the OAX pattern is very similar to PROS. Technically, the growth potential reaches 0.75-1.0. Except for oax and vib, there are no oversold coins with a similar growth potential on binance. The most dangerous tools that are under development have the greatest growth potential, as we have already seen with the example of pros and troy, but there is still the possibility of delisting in case of problems with the project. In this regard, I want to repeat once again and remind you of the need to carefully weigh money management, choosing a moderate position on dangerous instruments to insure against large losses in the event of an error, delisting or prolonged drawdown. It is also a priority to trade coins with a monitoring tag in the second half of the week, because Delistings were most often in the first half.
OLong
by Strateg_
BTC Bitcoin Potential Retracement Soon If you haven`t bought BTC before the recent rally: Now you need to know that Bitcoin’s meteoric rise to an all-time high of $93,434 has reignited excitement in the crypto markets. However, as the euphoria peaks, warning signs suggest that the king of cryptocurrencies might be due for a pullback. Currently trading at a Relative Strength Index (RSI) level of over 86—a threshold signaling overbought conditions—Bitcoin appears overstretched in the short term. Historically, RSI readings above 70 often precede market corrections as buying momentum wanes and profit-taking sets in. While Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals remain strong, its price trajectory has repeatedly shown susceptibility to sharp reversals after rapid ascents. A retracement to $80,000—a key psychological and technical support level—could provide a healthier foundation for Bitcoin’s next leg upward. Traders and investors should remain cautious, especially as Bitcoin consolidates at overheated levels. A correction to $80K might not signal the end of the bull run but rather a necessary recalibration before the next rally.
Short
by TopgOptions
Volatility period expected to continue until November 20 Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (BTCUSDT 1D chart) The shape of the candle (Doji, Star) and StochRSI and StochRSI EMA are showing signs of crossing. Accordingly, the key is whether it can receive support and rise near 90375.20. If not, 1st: 87.8K-89K 2nd: 83.6K It is expected to fall to the 1st and 2nd areas above. This volatility period is expected to continue until November 20. - Have a nice time. Thank you. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Big picture I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC. (BTCUSD 12M chart) Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been in an upward trend since 2015. In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year uptrend and faces a 1-year downtrend. Accordingly, the uptrend is expected to continue until 2025. - (LOG chart) Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the uptrend is decreasing. Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective. Therefore, I expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future. - The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015. That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend. The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019. Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026. - No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving. It is up to you how to view and respond to it. Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized. However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role. The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci. Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies. 1st: 44234.54 2nd: 61383.23 3rd: 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting) 4th: 134018.28 151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting) 5th: 178910.15 -----------------
by readCrypto
Bitcoin: 100K? 85K More Probable.Bitcoin has gone nuts thanks to the historical election catalyst. Unusual situations such as these often provide lots of opportunity but that opportunity comes in forms that may not be so obvious to many. In situations where a market makes new all time highs, I do not get caught up with what the crowd is saying, and instead measure the affects of such a move in terms of RISK. There are going to be LOTS of wild forecasts. The typical "expert" tends to overreact along with telling people what they want to hear in order to attract eye balls. The rational question is: what is the RISK for investors, swing traders, day traders, etc? In terms of the broader perspective, Bitcoin has broken out of the consolidation that was in play since March. The move appears to be a broader Wave 5, which means a test of 100K or higher is within reason as a result of this breakout. People who called this move years ago look like geniuses only by coincidence (if the election went the other way, Bitcoin may have also). While there is NOTHING bearish to consider at the moment, this situation is best for those who bought much earlier. When markets look their best, that is usually the WORST time to buy not because of some bearish reason, but because of the inherent RISK. Investors and swing traders are assuming the MOST risk at these levels. The nearest supportive area (by proportion) is somewhere between 83K and 78K (see rectangle, arrow). A 6K to 10K+ retrace is very possible and can come out of no where for any reason (have you seen the -500+ Nasdaq?). Fundamentals do not matter in these high momentum situations. If you are not willing to take that kind of risk, then taking on new positions at these levels with the intention of staying in for the 100K break out is NOT in your best interest. The probability of a retrace increases as the market pushes higher. The rational thing to do is be patient, WAIT for the retrace. Markets do NOT move in straight lines. The better opportunity in my opinion is on the smaller time frames (day trade). 1000 points per hour in some cases, this is where you can take relatively smaller risk (if you know how to control it) while capturing some wild moves. There is a number of supports for this time frame but the more obvious one is around the 87K area. With this type of price action you can play both long and short and avoid the broader risk by not taking any overnights. A tool like my Trade Scanner Pro works well in a high momentum environment like this one, especially when it comes time to defining risk and profit objectives. The illustration on the chart shows the scenario that I anticipate on the daily time frame for the coming week. It MAY or MAY NOT unfold this way. It may touch the 95K resistance first. There is no way to know in advance, the key is to have some idea of what scenario is within reason and then act when the market CONFIRMS. While there is a clear bias in price structure, we must always respect that MARKETS are HIGHLY random and things can change fast. A strong market can easily retrace and yet it is still strong. Know your higher probability levels in advance and wait for the market to prove itself. Otherwise, if your the type who depends on hope in tough situations, your profits during this wild time will be brief. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
12