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BTC-D

BTC Textbook Elliot Waves!CRYPTOCAP:BTC local analysis hasn't changed in a few weeks. Price printed another text book Elliot motif wave, with the wave 4 triangle terminal pattern ending in the usual thrust up with a poke above all time high. Price is also printing a textbook ABC for wave 2 with 5 waves down for A, 3 waves up for B and a strong wave C down to finish. Wave C's are always the strongest. Pattern suggests price has one more push lower to complete this corrective wave tapping the quadruple support: S1 daily pivot, ascending daily 200EMA, major support High Volume Node (HVN) and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at 92-94k range. Most investors are publicly calling for buys in this area so price may be front run by the whales! The consensus often do not get what they want. Safe trading
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Maddox_Metrics
AAVE Standing out among the alt coins!CRYPTOCAP:AAVE is looking stronger than most for now. Local analysis has broken the bullish market structure on what appears to be a textbook Elliot Wave 1. Price is testing quadruple support: Daily 200EMA, daily pivot, major support High Volume Node (HVN) and the 0.382-0.5 Fib retracements. This should be a tough nut to crack (as long as CRYPTOCAP:BTC doesn't dump hard). Wave 2 retracement's are usually deep and come with a strong fear. It is where most retail investors capitulate only to find price turns around and continues bullishly without them in a aggressive wave 3. Analysis is invalidated below $111, so quite a ways off yet. If war escalation continue, irrational investor behaviour will likely break this technical analysis. Safe trading.
COINBASE:AAVEUSD
by Maddox_Metrics
BITCOIN Is this just a giant Bull Flag??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) saw a strong sell-off yesterday in the aftermath of the U.S. strike in Iran and fears of retaliation, but in later hours recovered some of the lost ground. The recovery is being extended into the Asian and early E.U. hours today and the emerging Channel Down pattern already draws strong similarities with the one in December 17 2024 - January 13 2025. Both broke below their respective 1D MA50 (blue trend-lines) to form a Lower Low, which in the case of Jan 2025, it initiated a rebound that tested the All Time High (ATH) Resistance. See also how similar their 1D RSI patterns are, testing the same Support level too (41.20). Given that this time the uptrend has been much shorter since the April 07 2025 Low, this Channel Down may be nothing but a giant Bull Flag in the middle of a standard Bull Cycle Leg. Until confirmed with a 1W candle closing above the ATH Resistance though, the medium-term Target is $111900. Notice also the formation today of a 1D MA100/200 Bullish Cross, the first since November 13 2024. So what do you think? Is $111900 your short-term Target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin Lose $100K Support?!On the four-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is below the EMA50 and EMA200 and is in its short-term descending channel. One can look for buying opportunities for Bitcoin from the channel bottom. If the resistance level is broken, the path to the rise and its reach to the level of $107,000 will be prepared for Bitcoin. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market, and capital management will be more important in the cryptocurrency market. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand range. Bitcoin has been in the spotlight again in recent days, especially as its price fluctuates within the psychologically important range of $101,000-$102,000 and its fundamental indicators are sending mixed signals. The first and perhaps most important element in Bitcoin’s fundamental analysis is the accumulation trend by large financial institutions and corporations. According to data published by websites such as CoinShares and the Financial Times, more than $87 billion worth of Bitcoin is currently held by companies such as MicroStrategy, Tesla, Block, and ETFs, which is approximately 3.2% of the total BTC supply in circulation. This clearly shows that Bitcoin has established itself as a store of value in the portfolios of professional investors, although there is still no consensus on its function as a “digital gold”. In this regard, analysts such as Román González of A&G have predicted that Bitcoin could reach the $200,000 range by the end of the year; on the other hand, some more conservative analysts such as Jacqui Clarke believe that Bitcoin still lacks measurable intrinsic value and should not be viewed solely as an alternative asset. This conflict of views shows the depth of complexity in analyzing Bitcoin. From the perspective of onchain, or intra-network data, the picture looks a little more cautious. The volume of active addresses last week was in the 1.0-1.1 million range, which is lower than in previous bullish periods (such as late 2021). Also, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) index, which measures the potential profit potential of investors, fell slightly from 2.29 to 2.20, indicating that the market is somewhat cooling off from the short-term heat. Also, on June 22, more than 5,200 Bitcoins were removed from exchanges, which is usually a sign of long-term accumulation and a decrease in short-term selling pressure. On the other hand, Bitcoin’s behavior in the face of geopolitical crises shows signs of a change in the dominant market narrative. During the recent tension between Iran and Israel, Bitcoin fell by nearly 4%, unlike gold, which experienced significant growth. This challenges the assumption that Bitcoin is a “hedging” or “safe haven” asset and shows that BTC is still registered more as a risk-on asset in the minds of market participants. This is considered very important as investors look for tools to hedge inflation or protect against economic shocks. In terms of correlation with traditional markets, Bitcoin is also on a path to further integration with classic assets. The 30-day correlation index between Bitcoin and the S&P500 is now around 0.78, and academic studies predict that the correlation will grow to 0.87 at some point in 2024. This means that Bitcoin’s movements are more aligned than ever with the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, interest rates, stock market conditions, and global liquidity flows. Therefore, in the current situation, the impact of US macro data or central bank decisions plays a decisive role in Bitcoin’s volatility. Finally, Bitcoin price prediction models in recent days also reflect this complexity. Websites such as Bitfinex, Changelly, and analysts from institutions such as Brave New Coin have estimated that Bitcoin could reach the $125,000-$135,000 range this summer if macroeconomic conditions remain stable, and even if institutional capital continues to flow and there are no macro crises, reaching $150,000 by the end of the year is not out of the question. However, such scenarios require maintaining the current level of liquidity in the market, the absence of drastic tightening measures by the Federal Reserve, and the control of geopolitical risks. In short, Bitcoin is in a situation where, on the one hand, its supporting fundamentals are stronger than ever; With institutional inflows, accumulation of long-term addresses, and reduction of inventory on exchanges. On the other hand, the market remains highly vulnerable to macroeconomic and political risks and continues to show volatile reactions. This situation has led to Bitcoin becoming not only a speculative tool or growth investment, but also gradually becoming a part of professional portfolios with a carefully composed risk management mix. Its medium-term outlook is positive, but with one important condition: stability in global inflation and continued institutional capital flows.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
Bitcoin's Failed 60-Day Cycle: Relief Rally Before More DownsideBitcoin has officially failed its current 60-day cycle by breaking below the previous cycle low on June 5th, touching $100,000. This marks a key structural shift that traders should not ignore. 📉 What’s Next? Likely Scenario: The highest probability setup now is a relief rally toward the Stoch RSI highs on the 1-Day and 3-Day timeframes, followed by a move downward into the 60-day cycle low, projected to form between late July and early August. This aligns with a potential retest of the Value Area Low from April, a key support zone to watch. 📈 Upside Target: If we do see bullish continuation in the short term, the main upside target is $105,000. This level is significant as it clusters three Weekly Point of Control (POC) levels from May and June, making it a high-liquidity magnet for price. Historically, Bitcoin tends to gravitate toward these levels when several align closely. 💼 Current Positioning: I’m currently long BTC and ETH, and I’m watching closely for Stoch RSI to top out on the 1-Day and 3-Day timeframes. I’ll look to reduce or exit those positions as we approach those cycle peaks. 🔔 Pro Tip: Price often seeks out stacked POC levels. If you’re a volume profile trader, keep $105K on your radar. 📌 P.S. For access to my custom indicators and deeper cycle analysis, check the description in my profile.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TheStrategyMaster
Bullish bounce off pullback support?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 98,383.98 1st Support: 94,101.85 1st Resistance: 108,545.92 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:BTCUSDLong
by ICmarkets
Bitcoin Under PressureBitcoin remains mired in a bearish trend as price action struggles below key moving averages—the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day—all of which point to sustained downside pressure. On the higher timeframes, a clear descending trendline from the April–May highs remains firmly intact, reinforcing the macro downtrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to hover in the neutral-to-lower zones, with recent bounces still failing to cross bullish thresholds. A short-term relief rally emerged post-news volatility, with price attempting to retest the supply zone between $103.9K and $104K—a region of confluence with bearish Fibonacci levels and previous order blocks. However, rejection at this level could set the stage for a further breakdown, targeting the $96.3K–$95.5K range. In the 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes, Fibonacci retracements and a climbing RSI suggest short-term relief is plausible, but a lower high formation would confirm continued bearish control. BTC remains technically vulnerable despite short-term bounces, while geopolitical events and U.S. policy narratives shape market sentiment. Yet behind the volatility, continued ETF inflows, stablecoin stability, and altcoin resilience signal a market that, while cautious, remains fundamentally engaged. Traders and investors alike should stay focused on key resistance levels for BTC, monitor developments in Middle Eastern tensions and U.S. crypto policy, and watch ETF and stablecoin flows as barometers of broader market conviction.
Short
by lesnermj
INJ Breakdown in Play Eyeing the Neckline for Precision ShortsINJ/USDT Analysis 〽️ The Head and Shoulders pattern has broken down successfully, confirming a bearish structure. 💠We anticipate a potential relief bounce towards the $11 region which aligns closely with the neckline retest zone. This area is likely to act as a liquidity trap, where institutional sellers may re-enter aggressively 👀. 🎯 Key downside targets remain at 1. $8.98 2. $8.03 3. $6.92 Strategic Plan 🎖️ Look to initiate short positions around the neckline retest near $11, as the risk-reward becomes increasingly favorable from that level. Trade with discipline. Let the structure lead the execution. 🫡🧠
Short
by wolfchemist
Checking the trend change after the volatility period Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get the latest information quickly. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (BTCUSDT 1D chart) This volatility period is expected to last from June 21st to 23rd. Therefore, it is necessary to check the trend formed after the volatility period. The 99705.62 point is the HA-High indicator point of the 1W chart, so it is important to see if there is support near this point. If it falls without support, it may fall to around 89294.25. The 89294.25 point is the HA-Low indicator point of the 1D chart. Since the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart is rising to around 99705.62, the area around 99705.62 is likely to play an important role as support and resistance. Even if it turns upward, it must rise above the HA-High indicator point of 108316.90 of the 1D chart to maintain the price. If not, it is likely to fall again. - The fact that the HA-High indicator was created means that it fell from the high point range. In other words, if it falls below the HA-HIgh indicator point, it is likely to start a downtrend. However, since the HA-High indicator is an intermediate value, if it is supported near the HA-High indicator, it is possible to show a stepwise upward trend. The end point of the high point is the DOM (60) indicator. Therefore, it should be interpreted that it has risen above the high point section only if it rises above the 111696.21 point. Therefore, depending on how the 108316.90-111696.21 section is broken upward, an upward trend can be predicted. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- There are auxiliary indicators OBV indicators made of Low Line ~ High Line channels and PVT-MACD oscillator indicators. The OBV indicator made of Low Line ~ High Line channels is an indicator that can see how the channel is structured, and whether OBV falls below the Low Line of the channel or rises above the High Line. Therefore, you can predict the future trend based on the channel pattern. - The PVT-MACD oscillator indicator is an indicator created by adding the Close value dash PVT value to the MACD formula. Therefore, it shows a similar appearance to the MACD oscillator indicator. The reason for looking at the PVT-MACD oscillator indicator is to find out how the trading volume flows. There are many trading volume indicators, but I think this PVT-MACD oscillator indicator reflects the trading volume flow well. - However, you should look at the support and resistance points where the changes in the movement of the PVT-MACD oscillator indicator, the OBV indicator created by the Low Line ~ High Line channel, and the StochRSI indicator occur. If the changes in these indicators occur near the DOM(-60), HA-Low, HA-High, and DOM(60) indicator points, it can be of great help in creating a trading strategy. The DOM(-60) indicator indicates the end point of the low point. That is, falling below the DOM(-60) indicator means that it has entered the low point range, and there is a high possibility that it will show a full-scale downtrend. The fact that the HA-Low indicator was created means that it has left the low point range. That is, if it rises above the HA-Low indicator, it means that there is a high possibility that an uptrend will begin. However, since the HA-Low indicator is an intermediate value, if it encounters resistance and falls, it is possible that it will show a stepwise downtrend. Therefore, whether there is support in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range is important. - Currently, the OBV indicator created as the Low Line ~ High Line channel has fallen below the Low Line. Therefore, we need to look at whether the Low Line ~ High Line channel will change to a downtrend channel in the future. We need to look at whether an 'M'-shaped pattern indicating a trend change occurs. Since the PVT-MACD oscillator indicator is still below the 0 point, it can be seen that the selling force is dominant. However, since the oscillator is maintaining an upward trend, you can see that the overall selling pressure is decreasing. Even so, since it is located near the HA-High indicator, the resistance in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) section is expected to be considerable. - Support and resistance points should be drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts. This will increase accuracy. However, since the standard time frame chart for all indicators is a 1D chart, it is most important to check the flow of the 1D chart. - You may think it is difficult because you have to look at multiple indicators at once. The most important thing is to look at the movement when approaching the HA-Low or HA-High indicator. The reason is that the basic trading strategy is to buy near the HA-Low indicator and sell near the HA-High indicator. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful transaction. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Here is a description of the big picture. (3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern) I will explain more details when the bear market starts. ------------------------------------------------------
by readCrypto
3
Bitcoin Weekly, Not Good But... Opportunities AboundI cannot say about the weekly timeframe the same I said for the daily, the situation here is different. The chart looks bad. The weekly close changes nothing. If Bitcoin moves and closes weekly above $106,000, this can be good news, but any trading below this level has bearish potential. It can be a period of bullish consolidation but the bearish potential cannot be ignored. So, I will keep it short. Bitcoin remains in doubt on the weekly timeframe. Bullish above $100,000. Bearish below $100,000. It has been six weeks with Bitcoin moving with basically no change. Last week's action did produce some loses for some traders, but for us the market remains the same. We focus on the altcoins, ignore Bitcoin for now, there is no growth and the action is still happening near resistance; at short-term support but overall, closer to a top than a bottom. It is risky to say the least. Many altcoins are trading at bottom prices and growing strong. We go for the low risk vs high potential for reward chart setups. We don't mind the market shaking, evolving or reacting to some geopolitical event, we do care about making the right choices... Focus on the altcoins for now, and for long... Hold on. I shall give you more information. Bearish action is indeed present but still weak. Bearish volume is very low. The fact that more than 1B worth of leveraged positions were liquidated calls for a pause. Each and every time this amount of money is taken out of peoples hands and transferred to the exchanges, the market changes direction. Regardless of the signals, the bigger picture or the long-term. This is a huge transfer, the whales are getting richer, retail is getting rekt. So, the market is likely to shake some more. This is only because Bitcoin is trading way too high and hasn't produced any significant retrace after considerable growth. Again, we buy those trading low near support. We sell those trading high near resistance. As long as this is the MO, we are sure to win in the long-run. I wouldn't want to buy-long a project that is crashing when there are others growing, yet to grow and with huge potential for growth. Remember, the market is big now, Bitcoin is very strong above 100K. It can happen that Bitcoin goes on a retrace while the altcoins move ahead. Money flowing out of the big projects reaches the smaller projects, classic bull market dynamic. Nothing surprising; opportunities are endless. Thanks a lot for your continued support. Namaste.
by MasterAnanda
Bitcoin Daily Bearish: If 100K Breaks, 80KBitcoin being bearish is only true if the $100,000 support level breaks. If it breaks expect the market to dive down, deep and fast and reach around $82,500 or $88,888. But this is only if the support breaks. If support holds, as it is doing so far, then you can expect higher prices in the coming weeks. If support breaks, the flush is likely to be super fast and strong which means that you will still get higher prices in the coming weeks, so the conditions remain the same mid- to long-term, only the short-term is now in question. The bears are putting pressure on the market and many LONGs have been liquidated already. It will be nice to see how it all develops, but it shouldn't take more than two weeks. We are likely in the clear in a matter of days (2-3 days). Do not be afraid if the market shakes, Bitcoin is going up; Crypto will grow, regardless of the short-term. Namaste.
Short
by MasterAnanda
2
Bitcoin Break: Watch 100K Revesal Or Test Of 95K.Bitcoin broke 100K support without any type of retrace attempt (YET). This move which is attributed to global events should not be entirely surprising. Most importantly do not OVERREACT, especially with all the nonsense hype this will generate. Here is a more effective way to process the current situation. Avoid bias and pay attention to the bigger picture. In terms of wave count, Bitcoin can technically retest the 85K area and STILL be considered within a broader Wave 4. This implies the broader structure is still BULLISH (Wave 1 overlap). A swing trade or investing buying opportunity can develop in the 95K area or lower (see illustration). The short term momentum is bearish as per break of 100K. This should guide shorter time frame strategies like day trades. A new bearish trend line is in play (see arrow). At this point without any meaningful reversal pattern in play (4H or above) look for bearish continuation patterns like consolidations (triangles) inside bars, etc. The 95K support would be a price objective to consider if you are open to aggressive short strategies. Keep in mind, shorting into such a low is HIGHLY risky and best suited for those who have adequate experience. This situation proves once again, "expert" opinions mean nothing. A few short weeks ago, Bitcoin was poised to break out and everyone was going to be rich again (remember the Bitcoin conference?). So much for that. The market does NOT care what you, me or Michael Saylor thinks. It reflects the perception of the future, whether or not that future plays out. This is precisely why CHARTS can offer value in terms of measuring potential and RISK. You don't even need to be that technical, just take a look at the weekly time frame. The previous week's bearish pin bar low was broken signaling weakness, NOT Bitcoin 100 million K. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
8
Perspective -- all basic indicators point DOWNI feel it's easy to get lost in what is happening NOW and forget what has happened OVERALL. Zooming out to a weekly chart and using basic trading indicators, we can see where this is going. Trading Volume: Low Double Top: Confirmed Elliot Pattern: Concluded SMA50 & SMA100: Same setup as Dec 2021 Stochastic RSI: Turning bearish First target: 92 - 93k range Second target: 77 - 78k range Third target: 33 - 34k range I suspect a slight uptick at 93k, but not surprised if it breezes past this onto 78k. Strange that anyone views this as a bulllish movement. This is a clear signal of a bearish market, and if altcoins follow then it'll be a full on crypto winter.
Short
by neuromancer
3
Bitcoin Short-Term Recovery Confirmed Bulls Win!Ranging markets/sideways markets is when traders lose the most money. Always keep this in mind. » Short-term signals are pointing to a recovery right away. » Bitcoin's drop wicked below the 13-June low but the RSI produced a higher low and thus we have a bullish divergence. » Bitcoin's current drop went lower yet the chart reveals lower volume now compared to 13-June. This reveals weakness on the bear camp. This means a recovery will happen next, right away. These are just a few signals but taken together with the altcoins analysis that I showed you and the bigger picture; Ha ha! The bulls win again. Namaste.
Long
by MasterAnanda
15
Bitcoin Daily Update June 22nd 2025Bitcoin daily chart: 🔻 Bearish Signals 1. Break of Rising Trendline: The price has broken below the upward (orange) trendline, indicating a shift in momentum. This trendline had previously acted as support, so the break suggests growing selling pressure. 2. Support Levels: BTC is now hovering just above $99,634, which appears to be a key short-term support. The next major support is around $93,363 — a break below that could open the door to mid $80K or even $71K (0.786 Fibonacci level). 3. Market Cipher Indicator (middle panel): The momentum wave is clearly descending, and VWAP (green) is curving down. The money flow (red) is negative. Bearish dots and crosses are appearing. 4. Stochastic RSI (bottom panel): Both %K and %D lines are dropping sharply below the 20 line, suggesting downside momentum is strong. No sign of bottoming out yet. 🟡 Neutral/Bullish Watch Points If BTC holds $99.6K and reclaims $100,115 or $104,616, it could neutralize or reverse this bearish setup. RSI is not oversold yet, so room remains for further downside before any strong bounce. 📉 Summary: BTC is currently bearish on the daily chart with: Breakdown from an uptrend. Weak momentum. Declining oscillators. Support tests underway. If $99.6K fails, eyes shift to $93.3K, and below that, $86.5K–$71.9K as potential zones. .... 🔻 Primary Trade Setup (Bearish) ⚙️ Type: Short Position ⏰ Timeframe: Daily 📉 Strategy: Trendline break and momentum continuation Entry: Below $99,500 (confirmation of trendline breakdown & continuation) Targets: 1. Target 1: $93,363 — Previous support level 2. Target 2: $86,500 — Next horizontal support 3. Target 3: $71,949 — Major 0.786 Fibonacci level (high confluence) Stop-Loss: Above $100,600 (to avoid fakeout wicks) Or tighter: $100,150 (for smaller R:R) Risk-to-Reward (R:R): Entry: ~$99,500 SL: ~$100,600 → ~1.1% risk TP1: ~$93,300 → ~6.2% reward R:R ≈ 5.6:1 (to TP1) — solid risk profile 🔄 Alternate Plan (Bullish Reversal Setup) ⚙️ Type: Long Position (Only IF price reclaims broken levels) If BTC reclaims $100,600 and closes above $104,616, trend could resume up. Entry: Break and daily close above $104,616 Targets: 1. $110,616 — recent resistance 2. $112,000 — psychological + historical zone Stop-Loss: Below $100,600 Invalidates upward breakout 📊 Indicators to Watch: VWAP: Still pointing down (bearish bias) Money Flow Index: Still in red (risk-off) Stochastic RSI: Resetting near bottom — could support bounce later Much love and appreciation, – chevs710
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by chevs710
Dollar's Decline: Global Economic ShiftsYou're probably wondering why I'm talking about the dollar on the Bitcoin chart. It's because I want you to look a few steps ahead. That's why this post is for people like that. 1. Global Economic Transformations: Collapse of the Jamaican Monetary System Insights and Logic: We are witnessing the end of the Jamaican monetary system, established in 1976 following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. The Jamaican system's key feature is free (yet conditionally market-driven) exchange rates and the global dominance of the U.S. dollar. For decades, the U.S. utilized the dollar's reserve currency status to finance budget and trade deficits without equivalent value returns—a beneficial "global tax." Facts: Currently, over 60% of global reserves are denominated in dollars (IMF data), but diversification is accelerating. The U.S. is facing a "liquidity trap": to sustain markets, the Fed must print money, exacerbating inflation and weakening the dollar's global effectiveness. Analogy: Just as Nixon abolished the gold standard in 1971, we are now witnessing the abolition of the dollar's global standard—not abandoning the dollar as a reserve currency, but its monopoly. 2. Political Environment in the U.S.: Trump, Tariffs, and Managed Uncertainty Insights: Court decisions against Trump's tariffs are political tools, especially prior to congressional elections. Democrats aren't just fighting for power—they systematically undermine Trump's economic policies in voters' eyes. Systematic Explanation: Virtually any presidential decree in the U.S. can be challenged legally. Lower-court decisions rarely withstand appeals, yet they create temporary buffers allowing policy adjustments. This enables Trump to recalibrate his trade model systematically without losing face. Conclusion: The U.S. operates under "managed uncertainty," where seemingly chaotic political behaviors are structured adaptation mechanisms to global changes. 3. Mass Market and Sixth Technological Paradigm: NBIC as Foundation for Future Growth Insights: The future mass market will be built around NBIC technologies: * Nano—new materials and sensors; * Bio—biotech, genetic engineering, life extension; * Info—digital platforms, neural networks, blockchain; * Cogno—cognitive interfaces, AI, neural interfaces. Historical Analogy: Just as cars and mobile phones defined the mass market of the 20th century, longevity treatments, AI services, and neural devices will define the 21st century. Facts: Examples of current "false starts": Nvidia, Palantir, OpenAI—stock price volatility relates not to technology failures but premature valuation. Forecast: The next 20 years will see growth in new sectors, dominated by those capturing mass consumers, not just investors. 4. Digitalization and Geo-economics: Telegram, AI, and Control Facts: Telegram plans to integrate Grok neural network—a signal of the digital merger of communication, payment platforms, and behavioral analytics. Insight: Telegram as a future super-app: messaging, finance, AI assistance—all-in-one. This is a media reset: traditional platforms like Bloomberg and CNBC lose influence to those controlling data flows directly. Conclusion: Information landscapes become automated—algorithms, not journalists, manage narratives. 5. **Europe: From "Progress Locomotive" to Stagnation and Subcontracting** Facts: Germany has been in recession for three consecutive years. The average age is 46. Pension burdens and social standards make the economic model (Rhineland capitalism) unsustainable. Ideological Crisis: Europe is split into "transhumanist" (West) and "neoconservative" (East) factions. The neoconservative revolution is gaining ground in Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Romania, and even eastern Germany. Conclusion: Europe is skipping the sixth technological paradigm, becoming a "comfortable but uncompetitive" zone. Europe's "Japanification"—a path without acute crises but also without growth. 6. Future Growth Centers: Asia and the Global South with Risks Facts and Locations: Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand—dynamic economies with high ROI and moderate political risks. Philippines, Taiwan—potential proxy-conflict zones between the U.S. and China. Logic: Global capital moves towards higher returns rather than better living standards. Asia becomes a new economic and geopolitical battleground similar to 20th-century Europe. 7. Role of Cryptocurrencies and USDT, USDC: Transition to Digital Dollar Facts: U.S. authorities view cryptocurrencies, especially USDT, as tools to reboot the dollar model. USDT effectively integrates the dollar into the crypto economy, maintaining Treasury demand and allowing dollar exports outside the U.S. Insights: Unlike CBDCs, the U.S. digital dollar (via stablecoins) enables global expansion rather than local control. The U.S. aims to lead the new monetary evolution—digital dominance instead of fiat. 8. Prospects in Latin America: Argentina, Mexico, and Risks Argentina Analysis: President Milei implements neoliberal reforms akin to Ukraine's: reduced state role and deregulation. Possible outcomes: deindustrialization, increased poverty, export dependency. Positives: No war risks, resource-rich (oil, wine, food), good medicine and education standards (legacy). Mexico: High growth yet severe crime levels—excellent for business, risky for life. 9. Global Hybrid War Instead of a Third World War Concept: Not a "world war" but a global hybrid war: multiple power centers, proxy conflicts, shifting alliances. Theaters of conflict: Asia (especially the South China Sea), potentially the Middle East and Africa. Strategic Conclusion: Avoid proxy countries; prefer "neutral dynamic" regions like Indonesia, Vietnam. About DXY I have been talking about the fall of the dollar index for a very long time. September is coming soon Best regards EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
28
BTC Loses Key Level — Will 100K Hold or Fold?Bitcoin has been locked in a range for the past 45 days, clinging above the critical psychological support at $100K. But cracks are starting to show… Every bounce from the key level at $102,430 has been weakening — and now, for the first time, we’re breaking cleanly below it. Things are starting to tilt bearish. So the question is… ⛏️ Will 100K be tested next? 🔍 Key Support Zone: $97.7K–$96.9K Using the Fibonacci retracement from the swing low at $74.5K to the recent ATH, the 0.382 retracement lands at $97,655 — just below the $100K mark. But there’s more… Here’s why the zone between $97.7K and $96.9K is crucial: 0.382 Fibonacci retracement: A common pullback level in strong uptrends. Anchored VWAP from $74.5K: Currently sitting around $96.9K, tracking cumulative volume-weighted average price — a key level. Daily Order Block: Sits right at $96,887, aligning with the VWAP and reinforcing the area as demand-rich. 1.272 Fibonacci extension: From the previous move — providing another layer of confluence. Fair Value Gap (FVG): The imbalance lies right in this zone. Price often fills these before continuing trend. All of this stacks up to a high-probability long setup. 🕵️‍♂️ What to Do Now? Set alerts at $100K and watch for a reaction. If price slices through, shift focus to the 0.382 Fib — monitor price action closely for signs of a reversal. The first clean test of this zone could present a solid long — but as usual don’t trade blindly. Wait for confirmation. _________________________________ 💬 If you found this helpful, drop a like and comment! Want breakdowns of other charts? Leave your requests below.
Short
by SiDec
6
BTC is still bearish (2H)This analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section The red zone seems to have had enough orders to reject the price downward. It is expected that the price will drop at least to the green zone below. There will be some fluctuations along the way. A daily candle closing above the invalidation level would invalidate this analysis. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
BITCOIN BEARISH SETUPBitcoin (BTC/USDT) – Breakdown from Double Top Confirms Bearish Trend Continuation The 4-hour chart of BTC/USDT (Binance Perpetual Contracts) presents a textbook double top formation followed by a confirmed breakdown below structural support levels. The bearish trend has already met its first target, and technicals suggest the move could extend lower toward the key demand zone around $96,000. 🔍 Key Technical Highlights: Double Top Pattern: Clear double top structure formed between $109,000–$110,000, followed by a strong rejection. Support Break: Price broke down below key support at ~$105,000, triggering a sell-off and validating the bearish reversal. Bearish Retest: After the breakdown, price retested the broken trendline (highlighted with a red zone) and failed to reclaim the range. First Target Hit: Price achieved the first projected support zone at around $101,000. Next Target: Based on measured move projection and previous structure, the next downside target lies near the $96,000 mark. 📉 Outlook: The structure remains bearish as long as BTC trades below the broken support-turned-resistance zone (~$105,000). Momentum favors continued downside toward the next key zone unless a significant bullish reversal signal emerges.
Short
by traderchamp_