Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Bearish Continuation with $95,200 TP
Looking at the Bitcoin/TetherUS chart from TradingView dated May 3, 2025, I can see a clear short-term bearish trend forming with several notable technical patterns.
The price is currently around $96,158.01, showing a decline of -0.17% with a volume drop of -0.75%. Let me correct my analysis for a short position:
KEY Technical Observations
- A descending channel has formed after rejection from the $97,200 resistance level
- Price is breaking down from a consolidation area around $96,327-$96,419
- The green shaded area indicates a projected downward movement targeting $95,349.80
- Consecutive red candles with increasing body size suggest accelerating bearish momentum
Trading Opportunity - SHORT POSITION
This setup presents a bearish continuation pattern with the following take-profit targets:
- TP1: $95,800 (initial target within the projection)
- TP2: $95,350 (projected bottom as indicated by the green zone)
- TP3: $95,200 (key horizontal support line)
Entry point for shorts would be on any retest of the $96,327 resistance (previous support now turned resistance).
Creative Strategy: The Emerald Descent
The green projection zone appears to be forecasting a controlled drop toward the $95,200-$95,350 area. This well-defined bearish channel presents an opportunity to ride the momentum down to these targets.
Set a stop loss above $96,600 to protect against unexpected upside movements.
The declining volume (-0.75%) suggests this move is a continuation rather than a panic sell, making it a more predictable technical play rather than an emotional reaction.
BTC-D
Bitcoin: First Leg Of Wave 5 To 109K.Bitcoin has lingered around the 95K resistance area over the previous week. In my opinion this is a sub wave iii completion (5 mini waves can be counted within the bullish breakout leg). This implies there is a greater probability of a retrace or sub wave iv (see wave count on chart). The retrace can go as low as the 90K support without overlapping sub wave i which would keep the bullish impulse in play. Also there is enough evidence here to suggest this structure is likely the first wave of the broader Wave 5 which can see a test of the 109K high over the coming months.
The current high (see arrow) shows signs of potential reversal at a location where such a pattern can be expected. The question is, when will it retrace and how far? It is anyone's guess. This is where you have to have the ability to adjust as the market provides new information. Until then the best we can do is assess loose probabilities and wait to see how the market aligns or not.
The adjustment process is two fold: evaluating support/resistance levels and assessing the RISK associated with a given scenario. For example, the illustration on the chart shows a retrace back to 90K, this or some variation of this scenario may or may not unfold. The key is to have levels identified in advance and then WAITING to see how the market behaves at such levels. Does it confirm our idea or not? In the case of Bitcoin now, the 95K area resistance is sticking and a reversal pattern has appeared which adheres to the retrace scenario, but how far it retraces is up to Bitcoin. We have to wait and see what type of bullish reversals appear and where they appear before RISK can be assessed for a swing trade on this time frame.
Markets that linger around levels can be very hard to trade if you are the type that forces trades or assert opinions. Slow grinds are especially tough to sit through which is why I always suggest evaluating smaller time frames while keeping this bigger picture in mind. There are plenty of smaller opportunities to capitalize on if you can recognize the support/resistance levels and trend structure on the smaller time frames without losing site of the bigger picture.
On this time frame for swing trades, I am not interested in the short side. I prefer to wait for the retrace (wave iv) measure to see how far it goes, WAIT for the reversal confirmation, then quantify the RISK from that point. IF this scenario appears, I would be anticipating a retest of the 100K resistance and expecting a greater chance of a breakout to a higher high (low to mid 100ks)? This can take at least two weeks to play out in my opinion. And if this scenario does not play out, then adjust to the whatever new information the market is presenting.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
Bitcoin Analysis (4H)Bitcoin has lost its trendline and appears to have accumulated significant sell orders near the top.
The zone between $96K and $100K could act as the main supply area, potentially pushing the price down to at least $88K.
Targets are clearly marked on the chart.
A daily candle closing above the invalidation level would invalidate this outlook.
Do not enter the position without capital management and stop setting
Comment if you have any questions
thank you
"Bitcoin Analysis" (Update)Here's what I can gather from the chart right now:
The Minor Resistance zone has been strongly broken to the upside; we haven't seen good pullbacks to this level yet.
On the other hand, below the broken zone, there's a price gap toward the FVG, as indicated by the arrow.
Also, the pullback to the breakout level at 0.382 has not been completed, and no patterns have formed in that area!
So? When we analyze all the breakout factors, we see a very high chance of a correction.
Now, this correction could start from the confirmation level at 96,364, or with an overextension, it could happen from the 98k zone.
Stay Awesome , CobraVanguard
BTC breaks out - Can it sustain the bullish momentum?Over the past week, Bitcoin (BTC) has shown notable strength, forming an ascending triangle pattern, a typically bullish structure that often resolves to the upside. True to form, BTC has now broken out above the triangle's resistance, pushing higher with strong momentum.
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Price target ascending triangle
This breakout sets a technical price target above $98,000, suggesting there’s still significant upside potential if the pattern plays out fully. However, the rally is now approaching a critical test.
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Golden Pocket + POC
BTC is currently moving into a zone of strong resistance, both the Golden Pocket Fibonacci retracement level and the Point of Control (POC) from recent months converge in this area. These technical levels often act as magnets for price and can serve as significant barriers, potentially leading to a pullback or consolidation.
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Stochastic RSI
Adding to the caution, the daily Stochastic RSI remains in overbought territory, where it has lingered for an extended period. While this doesn’t guarantee an immediate reversal, it does suggest that a corrective move could be on the horizon.
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Conclusion
Still, there's a chance BTC could first push toward the psychologically significant $100K level before any major retracement occurs. Traders should keep a close eye on how BTC behaves around this key resistance area, confirmation or rejection here will likely shape the next major move.
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BTCUSDwhat a long on btcusd 100% correct prediction on my previous analysis. this time i see a strong manipulation unless strong break above 9700 then good pull back to enter long, or strong retest back to 7500 to get the range retest on weekly ( bos ) to enter long, with good confirmation.
as i have draw the line with a,b,c do your own anaylysis for any good decisio. let me know what you all think, leave a comment below. give it a like if you see my work is good.
BTC Outlook May 2025CRYPTO:BTCUSD
Bitcoin Nears Major Resistance – What Comes Next?
As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading around $96,000, climbing steadily as it approaches what I believe is a critical resistance zone between $98,000 and $102,000. This area has the potential to act as a major turning point.
If Bitcoin can break through and hold above the $102,000 level, I believe there's a strong chance we see continued momentum pushing the price toward $120,000 or even higher. However, if Bitcoin is rejected at this resistance zone, it could mark the beginning of a retracement, with the next major support area appearing around the $71,000 level.
This zone of resistance is, in my view, one of the most important to watch in the current cycle. Whether Bitcoin can establish new support above it—or get turned away—could shape the trajectory for the rest of the year.
Previous Bitcoin Outlook
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are my personal opinions and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies involves significant risk, and you should always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Bitcoin: Strong Support —Back To BasicsNotice the black lines on this chart...
The lower line marks the January 2025 wick low.
The second line, a bit higher, matches the December-November 2024 wick low.
Last week Bitcoin smashed this resistance range and is now safely trading above it. The break of this support turned resistance turned once more support is a major bullish development.
The action as it is happening now on the weekly timeframe puts Bitcoin back in the same conditions as before the March 2025 breakdown.
Notice the entire period after the March 2025 breakdown and April recovery, this is a classic stop-loss hunt event, liquidity hunt or bear-trap. The action moved below support just to quickly recover.
This can also be read as a "failed signal."
The bears attempted to move the market lower but failed. A failed signal turns into a strong signal contrary to the initial direction of the move. So if this is a failed bearish signal it translate from a TA perspective into a strong bullish signal. This works because it reveals a double-bullish dynamic. The failed bearish continuation after breakdown reveals bears weakness, the successful recovery reveals bullish strength; two points for the bulls.
Now, the active weekly candle/session did not wick lower to test the "strong support" price range, between $89,250 and $90,500, black lines on the chart, no, instead the action is happening safely above this range.
Bitcoin is super strong right now. Strong support.
If Bitcoin were to move lower and challenge this support zone, this would become a unique opportunity, a very strong opportunity, an amazing opportunity to buy LONG with high leverage or simply accumulate more if you are spot.
If it drops, awesome, a unique buy opportunity.
If it continues higher right away we are good because Bitcoin has been green four weeks straight.
It doesn't get any better and we have the support of the entire Altcoins market which is starting to heat up. I told you we would see slow steady growth, it doesn't happen in a day because are in a long-term bullish phase but oh boy, oh boy, oh girl oh boy it will grow.
By late May 2025, everything will be green 2-3 levels up. That is, minimum 200%-300% up and that is just the start. You've been warned.
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
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Namaste.
Bitcoin's Weekly MACD & RSI —Back To Basics (Part 1)We looked at Bitcoin on the weekly timeframe and mentioned the rare Michael Saylor 4 weeks green bullish signal. But what about the MACD and RSI? What are these indicators currently saying?
Let's dive deep into these two and see what we can find.
First, Bitcoin's weekly RSI.
1) Here we have first what is called a hidden bullish divergence. The RSI hit a lower low in March 2025 compared to September 2024, but Bitcoin is currently trading within a strong higher low (March/April 2025 vs September 2024). This is an interesting signal.
2) The same RSI support that was activated in September 2023 and September 2024 worked in March 2025. Once this level was activated—blue dotted line on the chart—the RSI started to move upward.
Each time this support is activated Bitcoin goes on a major bullish wave. In September 2023 Bitcoin started a major rise from 20 something toward 70K+. In September 2024 Bitcoin started a major advance from 60 something toward 110K.
3) A triple bottom. Another signal related to this same support level is a triple bottom. It was challenged three times and holds. In 2025, this support zone was pierced briefly and then the RSI started growing. This makes the reversal signal an even stronger one.
Bitcoin doubled in 2024 from this RSI support and more than triple in 2023. So this time around we can count on a double minimum but can be a triple or more. If it increases each time, first a double, then a triple and then a quadruple.
The next signal is Bitcoin's weekly RSI broken downtrend and bullish reading:
1) The downtrend has been broken on the RSI, pretty simple. Here depicted with blue lines. Needless to say, when the downtrend breaks the RSI moves up. A strong RSI is bullish for Bitcoin and this takes us to #2.
2) The RSI has a strong reading at 59. Bullish is above 50 and there is also a bullish cross, when the RSI moved above the RSI based MA (moving average).
The weekly RSI reveals Bitcoin's eternal bullish bias. Over time this indicator becomes overbought but never oversold. Interesting isn't it? It shows that market participants are ready to buy beyond what is reasonable but not willing to sell that much.
As it happened back in late September 2024, the RSI doesn't have to move straight up, there are ups and down within a rise, please keep that in mind. The RSI doesn't necessarily reflect what Bitcoin is doing or will do, it only supports a broader bias, trend or cycle, in this case the bullish case.
Next comes the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence).
This is pretty interesting as well and the first signal is a higher low in April 2025 vs September 2024, a standard bullish signal:
Revealing Bitcoin's eternal bullish bias, the MACD starts to recover without reaching the bearish zone. The bearish zone is when the MACD moves below zero, here the recovery is happening above.
The fact that the bullish cross on the MACD, when the MACD line crosses upward the signal line, is not yet in means that this bullish cycle is still early.
When the MACD line (blue) starts to curve on the weekly timeframe after making a long-term low, as it is now, the market turns bullish and there is no going back.
I will go deeper on the MACD in part 2 of this publication.
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Namaste.
Bitcoin Dominance TO 52% with in 7 to 14 days Bitcoin dominance has recently experienced a significant upward trend, reaching 64.96% on the daily timeframe. This surge highlights Bitcoin’s growing strength 💪 relative to the broader cryptocurrency market. Currently, dominance is approaching a key resistance level at 65.79% 📈, which is considered a potential reversal zone 🔄.
🧠 Technical Overview
A closer look 🔍 at the recent momentum in Bitcoin dominance reveals signs of a maturing uptrend 📶. As the indicator nears historically significant resistance levels, the probability of a downward correction 📉 increases. Based on time-based analysis ⏱, signs of a pullback are expected to emerge within the next 7 to 14 days 📆 from the point of touching or nearing the 65.79% level.
🎯 Potential Correction Targets
If the anticipated reversal materializes, the correction targets are as follows:
First Target: A retracement to the 60% level, which has acted as prior support 🛑 and could temporarily halt further declines.
Second Target (deeper correction): A move down to 52%, a strategic support level 🧱 that could pave the way for altcoins 🚀 to outperform.
$100K Bitcoin Within Days » Top Altcoins Choice —Your Pick (S5)Bitcoin is now bullish confirmed with a break above $97,000. Today Bitcoin trades at the highest price since late February 2025, and it is set to continue growing and growing aiming next at a break and challenge of 100K.
As soon as 100K is conquered, the Altcoins will go wild.
Which pair is your favorite Altcoin right now?
Let's start Session 5 of Your Top Altcoin Choice.
» Leave a comment with your preferred Altcoin trading pair and I will reply to your comment with a full analysis.
» We will do one pair per user/commentator.
Feel free to ask any questions.
Bitcoin is bullish now and set to grow long-term. The next All-Time High can happen around $160,000 just as it can be $180,000 or $250,000. Patience is key.
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
Namaste.
BTC - The Perfect Retest!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders! This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
The picture says it all!
🔄Is history about to repeat itself?
If so, we are currently in Phase 2. 📈
What’s next? A dip toward the $87,000 - $88,000 zone would be the perfect retest to look for trend-following longs and expect the start of Phase 3.
📚 Reminder:
Always stick to your trading plan — entry, risk management, and trade management are key.
Good luck, and happy trading!
All Strategies Are Good, If Managed Properly!
~Rich
BRIEFING Week #18 : Waiting for RotationHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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BTCUSDT to head towards 106kBTCUSDT is currently trading inside weekly resistance zone WR1 and currently holding inside this zone. However, since it has not been rejected outrightly from there showing the strength and a high probability of it breaking this resistance and moving to the upside towards 106k area. Later we can see pullback from there towards WR1+DS1 zone testing as support and then bounce again from there towards clear sky as depicted on the chart. This structure will also create a giant inverse head and shoulder fueling the upward move later on. However, those we will assess later after more price action is there. But for now, lets focus on this long trade from weekly resistance zone WR1 to 106k.
NZDJPY BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSIS ??NZDJPY has successfully completed a bullish breakout from the descending channel structure that has been forming since mid-2024. The price action respected the trend boundaries flawlessly, and the breakout above the upper trendline confirms a reversal from the previous downtrend. Now trading around 86.200, this pair is showing strong momentum, supported by both technical breakout validation and fresh bullish sentiment in the market.
The pair is now targeting a measured move towards 93.000 in the coming weeks. The breakout is supported by increasing risk appetite across markets, as investors shift from safe-haven currencies like the Japanese Yen toward riskier assets such as the New Zealand Dollar. The sharp rejection from the lower trendline and the steady climb through April and early May marks the beginning of a potential bullish cycle. Traders should watch for retests and bullish continuation patterns to ride this wave.
Fundamentally, the New Zealand economy is seeing upward momentum with recent improvements in dairy exports and a surprise drop in unemployment to 3.8%, beating expectations. On the other hand, Japan’s stagnant inflation data and dovish Bank of Japan stance have weakened the Yen further. The widening interest rate differential between the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Japan continues to favor the Kiwi. This macro backdrop aligns with the technical breakout, offering additional conviction to bullish traders.
With technicals and fundamentals now in alignment, NZDJPY offers a high-probability long setup. Breakout traders and trend followers should consider riding this move toward the 93.000 target, with trailing stops to lock in profits as momentum continues. Keep an eye on global risk sentiment, commodity prices, and upcoming economic data from New Zealand for confirmation along the way.
Bitcoin BTC Has Started CorrectionHello, Skyrexians!
Hope we understood what is going to happen with the Bitcoin dominance, if briefly we are waiting for correction and this dominance dump will likely happen on BINANCE:BTCUSDT dump.
Let's take a look at the impulse which has been started at $75k, it looks like this impulse has been finished already with the 5 Elliott waves cycle. At the very top we can see the bearish divergent bar and bearish divergence with the Awesome Oscillator. Moreover oscillator started to print red columns, it means that momentum is gone and now it's time to go down.
Best regards,
Ivan Skyrexio
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BTC HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY TO FALL DOWN!!!The BTC starts looking weak and it's perfect time to long for a short. We are almost at the top of this run from last weeks and we can see that BTC made a perfect divergence pattern. My indicator shows me also that we are entering a mid-term bearish trend and there is a high chance that we are gonna fall much deeper than in last weeks. My target is clear and I'm holding my strategy so I wait for the price to hit my SMA line like it was in the last days but now I wait for the price to hit the SMA line at 4H chart because we didn't hit it since 2 weeks so in this moment we can see even in a few candles that the price is gonna touch it. I am actually in the short and waiting for the price to go for my target, we also have a weekend so the price will be probably slow but everything can happen. In my opinion next week are gonna be red and the price should touch my target. I recommend to watch a 1H and 2H chart and looking when price will hit the SMA line on these timeframes because my target is set in a 4H chart but we can book profits even when the price will hit the SMA at 1H and at 2H chart. Be careful and stay focused.