BTC Dominance Looking very bullish CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D should go up towards 66% and expect the CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS to take a hard dump. Bull flag pattern in the short term.
Btc-dominance
BTC.D (Dominance at Critical Fibonacci Confluence) 2025 Weekly
**Summary:**
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is testing a major Fibonacci confluence near the 66% level. This zone historically acts as a major pivot and may signal either a continued dominance rally or a potential reversal setting the stage for altseason. We use three layered Fibonacci retracements to outline dominant trend zones, key resistances, and projected targets.
**Chart Context:**
This chart uses **three distinct Fibonacci retracements** to map the historical and projected behavior of BTC dominance:
1. **Primary Fib** (100% to 0%): Captures the macro move from BTC.D \~100% down to its 0% level at \~0%, which aligns with the first altseason (2018–2019).
2. **Secondary Fib** (100% to 38.88%): Maps the first bearish wave to identify potential recovery levels. BTC.D retraced up to the 61.8% (\~73.68%) but failed to break further.
3. **Third or the Current Fib** (73.68% to 38.88%): Maps the latest bearish fall in BTC.D. As of now, BTC.D is hovering at the 78.6% retracement level of this move, indicating heavy resistance.
**Key Technical Observations:**
* **1st TP (Resistance):** 66% — Strong Fibonacci confluence zone:
* Fib2 48.6% ≈ Fib3 78.6%
* Major reversal zone historically
* **2nd TP (Support):** 52.25% — Multi-Fib confluence:
* Fib1 48.6%, Fib2 61.8%, Fib3 38.2%
* **3rd TP (Ultimate Support):** 38.88% — Historical BTC.D bottom, aligned with the first altseason.
* Intermediate Fibonacci confluences between 48%–60% serve as layered support during decline phases.
**Indicators:**
* No external indicators used; pure multi-frame Fibonacci confluence.
* Price action structure and historical patterns highlight potential market rotation zones.
**Fundamental Context:**
The current phase of the market reflects increasing speculative activity in altcoins while Bitcoin consolidates. Historically, high BTC.D correlates with Bitcoin-led rallies, while a sharp drop often triggers altseason.
* Growing inflows into ETH, SOL, and possible now XRP, and mid-cap alts suggest capital rotation.
* If BTC.D faces rejection from 66%, the market could enter a new altseason phase.
* Macro tailwinds (e.g., easing monetary policy, risk-on sentiment) support altcoin performance in the medium term.
**Philosophical or Narrative View:**
BTC.D acts as a barometer of market risk preference. As confidence expands beyond Bitcoin, money flows into altcoins—like tributaries branching off the main river. The rejection from major confluences signals this psychological shift, marking phases of creative decentralization.
**Related Reference Charts:**
* TOTAL3 Fibonacci Setup (Altcoin market excluding BTC & ETH):
* TOTAL2 Correction Probabilities:
**Bias & Strategy Implication:**
* **Primary Bias:** Bearish rejection from 66% followed by correction to 52% and potentially 38.88%.
* **Alternative Scenario:** Brief breach above 66% before reversal.
* Traders may consider rotating into altcoin exposure if BTC.D confirms reversal at the confluence zone.
**Time Horizon:**
* Mid to Long Term (1–6 months outlook)
* Weekly timeframe tracking
**Notes & Disclaimers:**
* This analysis is for educational purposes. Market conditions may evolve rapidly.
* Use proper risk management when acting on dominance signals.
Bitcoin DominationHistorical cycle data on the indicator points to the possible end of bitcoin's dominance growth. This may indicate the beginning of capital reallocation in favor of altcoins. At least until May 7 we will have a short-term altcoin season, but if we are lucky, even until the end of May.
⚠️ Caution Amid Geopolitical Factors
While a temporary altcoin season may be on the horizon, it's essential to consider broader economic factors. Ongoing trade tensions, particularly involving the U.S., could introduce volatility into the markets. Such geopolitical uncertainties might render the current altcoin rally a bull trap, with potential downturns in the summer months.
Bitcoin Dominance BTC.D analysisCurrently, the maximum of BTC.D was 65.38% and the absolute maximum is very close, and then the capital will start flowing into altcoins.
We will have to keep a close eye on where the capital will go: only to highly liquid altcoins, or to a certain industry, or to a narrative, as it was before: “defi”, “memecoin”, and so on...
Do you have any ideas where the capital can go? Write in the comments!
❗️ Also, it is worth noting that such a popular term as "alt-season" lasts less and less, and you have to wait longer and longer for it!
It seems that this time the "alt-season" has every chance to last until the end of 2025, and then... it will be seen. Perhaps the market will gain capital and new powerful players who will set a new vector and new rules by 2028....
But first... we have to live to see it!)
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Dominance the system core- for me it has always been very complicate to explain BTC.D to peoples, because it's complicate ! lol
- it's weird to understand the moves and many factors have to be compared together an alchemy have to happen to see something happening.
- So basically to explain it, i will tell you what "we want to see" or "what we don't want to see" in the future. if the story repeats again.
1/ BTC.D have to grow up, then Altcoins will struggle down trying to find a potential bottom.
- While BTC.D grow up, BTC price have to grow up also or at least stabilize ( this is a good sign )
2 / if BTC price down and BTC.D up, it's bad, it's just the normal way ( No Divergence )
- When BTC price + BTC.D both up together, it's a kind of " inversed divergence ", it means something good gonna happens. ( get it ?)
- Basically also if USDT/USDC Dom Grow and BTC price stabilize and not goes down anymore, it's a good sign.
- Normality the normal way is : BTC up / USDT/USDC.D Down OR BTC Down / USDT/USDC.D up.
- Before we had no reason to check those Stables coins because they had not much DOM in markets, but now have to count with them.
- So While BTC.D is growing, altcoins will just make some weak moves.
- When BTC will reach is next Dominance's ATH ( witch have to be lower than last years because more concurrence )
- BTC.D will crash and ALT SEASON will start.
- it took me many years to understand that, but it's pure logic ( Fibonacci is working perfectly on it )
- again it's not easy to get it.
- if you have any questions feel free to add a comment.
Happy Tr4Ding !
Bitcoin Dominance Ascending Channel and Altseason (1W Log)CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D has been in a clean uptrend inside an ascending channel for over 2 years.
• The midline has consistently acted as a magnet, but BTC.D has recently detached from it and might be headed for another retest of the upper boundary.
• Unless major macro catalysts intervene, I expect no notable changes until the 72-73% key area, the same zone that triggered 2021's altseason.
Regarding altseason, this cycle isn't like previous ones. With millions of tokens today, dilution is real, and a full-blown altseason where everything pumps seems unlikely.
Instead, I expect selective rotation into quality projects, and that might actually make it easier to find real outperformance.
BTC Dominance Chart Analysis. 50-day MA: 61.94% (Notable Support Level)
200-day MA: 59.21% (Strong Support)
Trend: The chart shows a bullish trend in BTC dominance since the beginning of the year, with higher lows forming.
Resistance Level: A key resistance area lies around 63%, which the price is currently testing.
Support Level: The 50-day and 200-day moving averages provide solid support below current levels.
Update Points
Short-term outlook: If BTC dominance stays above 62%, it could reach 63% resistance.
Long-term indicators: Continued support at the moving averages suggests bullish sentiment if BTC can maintain its position.
Market Conditions: Monitor fluctuations in altcoin performance, which could impact BTC's dominance positively or negatively.
If you found this analysis helpful, hit the Like button and share your thoughts or questions in the comments below. Your feedback matters!
Thanks for your support!
DYOR. NFA
Altseason is coming Altseason is coming soon than your expectations. Expecting Btc.d to dump from current price areas and and alts starts gearing up.
Strong as ballistic missile Forgot green market and short position is remedy. It takes much time having bullish market.
BTC DOMINANCE
Disclaimer 👉 This is my personal analysis for educational purposes , Buy/Sell/Trade at your own risk. I am not a financial Advisor
Btc DominanceDisclaimer 👉 This is my personal analysis for educational purposes , Buy/Sell/Trade at your own risk. I am not a financial Advisor
$BTC.D and $DXY are in diametrically opposite directionsIn this blog space we have been discussing Bitcoin Dominance ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D ) since Dec 2024. On 9th Feb 2025 I posted a blog where we discussed the Fib Retracement levels in CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D chart and we said that we can expect more upside and has broken past 0.618. I said it is possible that the dominance can reach the 0.786 Fib level at 66.12%.
I tried to plot the Dollar index TVC:DXY in the same weekly chart as CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D and it was quite surprising that the FIB retracement levels in CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D are the same as the top to the bottom levels in the TVC:DXY chart. We are looking at the last 5 years for our analysis.
When CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D has broken past 0.618 Fib level and trying to reach 0.786 @66.12%. But the TVC:DXY has broken below 0.786 and in the near term the TVC:DXY level can end up at 0.618 Fib levels which can take TVC:DXY to 104.
So, in the near to medium term is CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D @ 66.12% and TVC:DXY @ 104.
$BTC.D is at key Fib Retracement level. More upside-expectedThe most important story of this Crypto cycle has been the relentless strength of CRYPTOCAP:BTC against other crypto. The index CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D which measures the dominance of BTC in the total Crypto market in terms of Market Cap hit its low in Dec 2021 when CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D hit a multi-year low of 39%. That means only 39% of the Total Market Crypto can be attributed to $BTC. But since then, the Fed quantitative tightening began and most of the cryptos faced a meltdown. Even though CRYPTOCAP:BTC faced a bear market in CRYPTOCAP:USDT terms but still it fell less than the average Crypto. Since then, the CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D chart has made a bullish double bottom and then made new higher lows and higher highs. If we plot the Fib retracement levels on the CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D weekly chart we saw recently that the Dominance chart stalled around 0.5 and 0.618 Fib levels. Since then, the Dominance chart has been making new highs and broken past the 0.618 . The next key level is 0.786 which will take the dominance to 66.12% percent. Watch out for my blog when CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D reaches the key level for more insights.
BTC DominanceBitcoin Dominance gives up 1 year after each halving. You should accumulate altcoin as long as Bitcoin dominance is above 50%.
They wanna Cill us, But we will rise again soon!Bitcoin is oscillating in a rather boring price range, while altcoins have experienced a significant price drop. However, we shouldn't lose hope. A historical comparison suggests that we can expect growth in altcoins. This is not an investment advice, and I do not consider myself an expert analyst. Please invest in the crypto market with risk management in mind. Wishing you all the best!
$BTC.D prediction based on the current situation.CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D has been climbing steadily since the start of this bull run.
It’s often said that an altseason begins when BTC dominance drops below 55%. However, the 54% level appears to be a strong support zone, with the MACD showing a low point and the RSI entering oversold territory.
My analysis suggests that BTC dominance has established a range between 59% and 55%. It’s likely to bounce off the top resistance, pushing dominance back toward the support.
If the next drop breaks through this support, it could finally trigger a true altseason.
When and Where this Bull Market Ends / BTC.D and TOTAL3 BehaviorCRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
Bitcoin Dominance and Alt Season Trigger:
The chart indicates that when Bitcoin Dominance reaches around 59%-64%, there’s a high chance of an BTC dominance market correction. This level often signals the end of a Bitcoin rally and the start of funds flowing into altcoins.
You can use this dominance level as a timing signal to anticipate the start of the next alt season.
Historical Patterns and Timelines:
Key vertical markers show important dates from past cycles, such as 2018, 2021, and projected points for 2025. These points highlight recurring patterns that can help forecast the end of the current Bitcoin rally.
TOTAL3 Index Trends Relative to BTC:
The TOTAL3 index (all altcoins excluding BTC and ETH) shows that after Bitcoin Dominance declines, TOTAL3 often experiences a sharp rise. This pattern has repeated in previous cycles, hinting at a potential similar move in the upcoming alt season.
Bitcoin Price Rallies and Corrections:
The lower chart shows Bitcoin's bullish and bearish phases, typically lasting between 450 to 550 days. This timeframe can help estimate the remaining duration of the current Bitcoin rally.
Future Predictions:
Based on the chart, Bitcoin Dominance is expected to reach critical levels again in 2025, potentially marking the start of the next major alt season. While this timeline depends on market conditions and investor behavior, it offers a general framework.
Altseason is cancelled for now.USDT.D shot up like a rocket during this crash, while Total3 is in freefall.
BTC only took a -4% hit, but the altcoin market? A brutal -8%.
It’s clear: CRYPTOCAP:BTC and those ETF approvers are running the show, draining liquidity from retail investors to keep pumping BTC at the expense of altcoins.
I warned you—invite these guys to your party, and they’ll clean out the buffet.
If you’re holding altcoins, all you can do is hang in there and hope BTC throws some karma their way.
BTC Dominance - Dreams come trueDid you survive the correction? The alt season will begin soon. BTC dominance is likely to drop significantly. Good luck to everyone!
BTC Dominance double top bearish signal detected!BTC.D is showing a double top pattern, indicating a potential reversal and bearish reaction.
At 57%, we are no longer in altseason. Let’s see if this bearish pattern and divergence play out.
BTC.D NEXT MOVE It is expected that Bitcoin dominance will move in this path, with the next action being a retest of the 58.70% area. After this retest, it is projected to drop to the key level of 58.30%, where Bitcoin dominance encounters both dynamic and static resistance. From this area, a decision will be made whether to continue with a significant drop or rise. As you know, an increase in Bitcoin dominance usually indicates a dump in altcoins, while a drop in dominance signals a pump in altcoins. However, other factors, such as Tether dominance, also need to be considered.
