BTCUSDT: two scenarios!hello guys!
Key Observations:
Pattern Formation:
Left Shoulder: Formed earlier around the $97,000 region.
Head: A drop to approximately $96,598.96 (Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level).
Right Shoulder: A potential retest of the $97,800 support area before continuation.
Price Scenarios:
Scenario 1: Bitcoin breaks the current resistance near $103,000 and continues to the target zone at $107,992.11.
Scenario 2: A retest of the $97,800 support region (right shoulder), followed by a bullish breakout to the $107,992.11 target.
Targets:
Major target: $107,992.11 (blue supply zone at the top).
Technical Confirmation:
Price is currently consolidating above the neckline and above key Fibonacci support (0.618 at $96,598.96).
Breaking the $103,000 resistance decisively could validate a strong bullish move.
Conclusion:
If BTC maintains support above $97,800 and breaks above $103,000, there is a higher probability of reaching the $107,992.11 target. Watch for bullish momentum confirmation and avoid downside risk if the right shoulder level fails.
Btc-e
Technical Analysis for KAS/USDT + TRADING PLANTechnical Analysis for KAS/USDT
Chart Pattern:
The Head and Shoulders 2X pattern (highlighted in orange) is forming, which suggests a potential reversal. This is a bearish pattern when it completes.
The neckline for the Head and Shoulders pattern aligns around the long support 1 (green line). A decisive breakdown from this support could confirm the bearish trend.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance Line (Red): This upward resistance acts as a price ceiling, aligning with the upper boundary of the channel. Current resistance is near $0.25-$0.30.
Long Support 1 and 2 (Green):
First support aligns at approximately $0.12-$0.14 (immediate support).
Second, stronger support lies near $0.09-$0.10 if breakdown occurs.
Intermediate Support (Blue): The long-term trendline below the neckline provides another zone of support.
Trend Outlook:
Short-Term (Bearish to Neutral): Price is consolidating near $0.14. The dotted path shows potential upward movement, but breaking the neckline could lead to a downside push.
Medium-Term (Bullish Potential): If the price holds support and breaks above $0.17-$0.20, Kaspa could return to an upward trajectory within the channel.
Long-Term (Bullish Channel): The broader channel remains intact, and price action could resume its uptrend toward resistance near $0.30.
Indicators Analysis:
Volume: Volume is relatively low, indicating low buying pressure. A breakout requires higher volume.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Current RSI: Near 54. This is neutral territory.
Observation: RSI must remain above 50 to support an upward trend.
Money Flow Index (MFI):
The MFI shows a slight upward trend at 32, which suggests weak buying interest.
Stochastic Oscillator:
Stochastic is near 12, indicating a potential oversold condition, which may lead to a short-term bounce.
Trading Plan
Short-Term Strategy (1-2 weeks):
Buy Zone: If Kaspa retests support at $0.12-$0.14, consider accumulating small positions.
Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss below $0.12 to protect against breakdown.
Target 1: $0.17 (short-term resistance).
Target 2: $0.20 (key breakout level).
Medium-Term Strategy (1-3 months):
Breakout Trade: Enter long positions if price closes above $0.17-$0.20 with strong volume confirmation.
Stop-Loss: Adjust stop-loss to $0.14 after breakout.
Target: $0.25 (resistance near the top of the upward channel).
Long-Term Strategy (3-12 months):
Channel Trend: Continue holding positions if the price respects the long-term support levels and upward channel trendline.
Target: $0.30-$0.35 (upper resistance).
Risk Management:
Position Sizing: Limit exposure to 2-5% of total portfolio on each trade.
Trailing Stop: Use a trailing stop once price hits $0.17-$0.20 to lock in profits.
Kaspa remains in a critical phase with potential for both upward breakout or breakdown. Watch the $0.14 neckline and volume closely. Traders can capitalize on support bounces or confirm long positions above $0.17-$0.20 for better risk/reward setups.
Bitcoin Eyes $107K: Key Levels to WatchBitcoin is showing bullish momentum, breaking through the key intraday resistance around $102,000. However, given the weekend, I am keeping my expectations realistic.
1. Ideally, I’d like to see either (A) a quick dip below $101,662 followed by a prompt recovery, or (B) sustained price action above $101,662. Both scenarios would significantly increase the likelihood of a bullish move toward the critical resistance at $107,000 in the coming days (as per the green projections).
2. Conversely, a drop below $98,984 could lead to choppy price action, a considerable slowdown in momentum, and a high probability of retesting the $94,650 level.
$BTC Looks bullish and ready for more ATHs - LONGCRYPTOCAP:BTC Bullish engulfing on prev 4H close, $107,461 given resistance in effect, Key support at $103,093, $104,987 support yet to be tested. Looks great on 1D, more ATHs to come, $107,857 latest ATH closed with a wick at given resistance $107,461 and testing.
Prediction : Next key resistance areas could be $110,423, $112,255-$112,893, $114,674, $116,908, $119,756.
Bitcoin to $143kWhen we apply a fib extension to the Bitcoin monthly chart we can see a possible target of $143k marked by the 1.618 level.
Everyone wants to know when the pullback is coming but after a solid breakout and parabolic performance in November, we can easily see this run continuing in to next year.
Best of luck to all and happy holidays 2024.
The ultimate target for Bitcoin in this cycle?Hello friends, I waited until last night and the closing of the weekly candle to answer this question.
Finally, last night, the weekly candle closed above $104,000, confirming continued upward momentum for me.
When it comes to setting targets for this rally, in my opinion, the best tool to use in trends is the continuation pattern AB=CD.
As you can see, we have a clean and elegant pattern on the monthly timeframe with an attractive target of $260,000.
Additionally, this number aligns with a trendline drawn using two monthly pivot highs, which increases the credibility of this target.
Of course, as the trend progresses, we need to monitor price action more closely and trail our stops. But you can keep this number in mind as the final target for this cycle.
I hope you all have profitable trades and enjoy the bull runnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn! 🚀
BTC/USDT Weekly Chart Analysis. BTC/USDT Weekly Chart Analysis.
A classic bullish reversal pattern has played out successfully.
The structures of the left, head, and right shoulder are perfectly aligned, confirming the breakout above the neckline.
BTC has broken its previous all-time high resistance, pushing above the $100,000 level with strong momentum.
The current sharp rally suggests overextension; a pullback could occur.
Trendlines and Resistance Areas:
BTC has crossed a long-term upward trendline and broken above the resistance area (highlighted in beige).
The breakout signals a shift in price discovery with a possible consolidation or retest.
The 21 EMA (black line) remains well below the current price, confirming bullish strength.
If the momentum sustains, BTC could rise to $120,000-$130,000 in the coming weeks.
The previous resistance area ($80,000-$85,000) could be retested.
This would allow for consolidation before the next leg up.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
For updates on other coins or personalized insights, feel free to reach out via DM.
@Peter_CSAdmin
BITCOIN The Volatility Index points to strong consolidation nextLast time we analyzed Bitcoin (BTCUSD) in relation to the Volatility Index (VIX), was 4 months ago (August 22, see chart below) and was an extremely successful projection as we took advantage of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) bottom and predicted the $100k Target, which recently got hit:
Once more, we decided to seek the (mostly) negatively correlated patterns of VIX (chart on the right) to determine BTC's (chart on the left) price action in the coming months.
Based on VIX's Channel Down, the fact that it broke below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and now is rebounding indicates that BTC may be entering a weekly consolidation phase. As you can see on VIX's chart, every time it broke below the 1W MA50 and started rising, Bitcoin entered a multi-week consolidation phase that sometimes was quick and others many months in length. Its 1W RSI is also at a level that relates to all those consolidation phases.
In our opinion this consolidation has more probabilities of being similar to December 04 2023 - January 29 2024, as the post August 2024 rally resembles more the rally that started on August 2023. This highlights the high degree of symmetry within Bitcoin's 2-year Channel Up.
If it continues to replicate that huge Bullish Leg, then we might as well see the rally peaking upon a +195.27% rise again. That could target $145000 by May 2025, which technically would also be marginally above the 1.5 Fibonacci Channel extension, similar to the March 11 2024 High.
So what do you think? Is it possible for Bitcoin to enter a multi-week consolidation now? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Avalanche ($AVAXUSDT): 30-Minute Analysis for Short Trade SetupI spend time researching and finding the best entries and setups, so make sure to boost and follow for more.
Avalanche ( BINANCE:AVAXUSDT ): 30-Minute Chart Analysis for Short Trade Setup
Trade Setup:
- Entry Price: $52.72 (activated)
- Stop-Loss: $54.09
- Take-Profit Target:
- TP: $46.74
Fundamental Analysis:
Avalanche ( BINANCE:AVAXUSDT ) is a high-performance blockchain platform known for its scalability and low transaction fees. Despite its robust ecosystem and increasing developer adoption, current market sentiment reflects short-term bearish pressure, likely due to profit-taking after recent rallies.
Technical Analysis (30-Minute Timeframe):
- Current Price: $52.50
- Moving Averages:
- 20-EMA: $53.00
- 50-EMA: $53.20
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently at 42, showing increasing bearish momentum.
- Support and Resistance Levels:
- Support: $51.50
- Resistance: $54.50
The 30-minute chart indicates a downtrend, with BINANCE:AVAXUSDT forming lower highs and breaking below key support at $53.00. This setup aligns with short-term bearish sentiment, providing a favourable risk-to-reward ratio for a downside target of $46.74.
Market Sentiment:
Short-term sentiment on BINANCE:AVAXUSDT appears bearish, with selling pressure increasing around key resistance levels. Broader market movements, especially in Bitcoin and Ethereum, may further influence CRYPTOCAP:AVAX ’s direction.
Risk Management:
A stop-loss at $54.09 limits potential losses, while the take-profit target at $46.74 provides an attractive downside reward. This setup requires disciplined execution given the short timeframe and potential market volatility.
Key Takeaways:
- Ideal setup for short-term traders capitalizing on bearish momentum.
- Clear downside target supported by technical indicators.
- Risk management is critical given potential reversals in a volatile market.
When the Market’s Call, We Stand Tall. Bull or Bear, We’ll Brave It All!
*Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Traders should conduct their own due diligence before making investment decisions.*
Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High of $107k — Is $150K Next? Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) has once again shattered expectations, climbing to a record-breaking $107,000. This milestone follows a 3.68% surge over the weekend, with bullish sentiment fueled by a surprising announcement from President-elect Donald Trump.
Bitcoin Price Today
Bitcoin’s recent rally can be attributed to President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to establish the U.S. as the global center for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency innovation. During a CNBC interview on Sunday, Trump unveiled plans for a U.S. Bitcoin reserve, emphasizing the need for the country to lead in digital assets. This announcement sparked a surge in buying activity, propelling Bitcoin to its new all-time high of $106,727.
The market’s reaction underscores the growing influence of policy decisions on crypto prices. Trump’s pro-Bitcoin stance has injected optimism into the market, with investors viewing it as a step toward broader institutional adoption and regulatory clarity.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently trading at $106,893, slightly off its daily high of $107,080. The recent breakout above the psychological $100,000 level signals strong bullish momentum. Key technical indicators suggest further upside potential:
1. Relative Strength Index (RSI): While the RSI stands at 71, indicating overbought conditions, historical patterns show that Bitcoin can remain overbought during strong uptrends.
2. Support Levels: In the event of a local correction, support ranges are identified at $97,500–$99,500 and $94,100. These levels could provide buying opportunities for traders looking to enter the market.
3. Resistance Levels: Bitcoin faces minimal resistance in uncharted territory. The next significant psychological level is $110,000, followed by the ambitious $150,000 target predicted by analysts.
Market Dynamics
Bitcoin’s 24-hour trading volume stands at $110.4 billion, with Binance leading the charge. The exchange’s perpetual and spot trading volumes contribute significantly to Bitcoin’s liquidity. This robust trading activity underscores the market’s resilience and readiness to absorb high volumes.
Outlook: Can Bitcoin Reach $150,000?
The path to $150,000 hinges on several factors:
1. Macroeconomic Environment: Continued pro-crypto policies from global leaders could drive institutional inflows and bolster market confidence.
2. Technical Breakouts: A sustained move above $110,000 would validate the bullish continuation pattern and set the stage for a run toward $150,000.
3. Market Sentiment: Despite overbought conditions, Bitcoin’s historical performance during Q4 and Q1 suggests strong potential for further gains.
However, traders should remain cautious. The RSI’s overbought reading and the potential for profit-taking at key levels could trigger short-term corrections. Risk management is crucial, as the market navigates these uncharted waters.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s new all-time high of $107,000 marks a significant milestone, driven by both fundamental and technical factors. President-elect Trump’s pro-Bitcoin stance has ignited fresh optimism, while technical indicators and on-chain metrics point to continued bullish momentum.
With $150,000 as the next ambitious target, the crypto market is buzzing with excitement. Will Bitcoin continue its ascent, or will a correction provide a breather before the next leg up? Only time will tell, but for now, the flagship cryptocurrency is firmly in the spotlight.
16/12/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $106,649.88
Last weeks low: $94,177.33
Midpoint: $100,413.61
A new ATH for BTC last week as we saw $106K for the first time, truly amazing price action since the Trump election win. NASDAQ:MSTR , IBIT and other massive institutions are continuing to buy with more companies having rumoured to add BTC to their balance sheet, demand is strong and does not seem to be going away as we go into the end of the quarter/year.
This week we have many different data releases from the UK, US & ECB. Naturally volatility is expected around these events, it also makes traders a little tentative to enter into trades, I would say this is more accurate during bear markets/ choppy conditions. Right now we're in a strong Bullrun and therefor the momentum is less news data driven and more a race for institutional buying, It's a given at this point that we're in a period of rate cuts and so that is factored into price.
Altcoins have seen a recent pullback despite BTC pushing higher, this is as a result of the BTC.D chart tanking when alts took the liquidity from BTC profits and so dominance did see a correction. This latest BTC move up while alts are down is just a continuation of BTC.D continuing its surge as it always does in the Bullrun before the true altseason where alts outpace BTC after a blow-off top.
This week I'd like to see BTC come through data events unscathed with altcoins bouncing off the 4H 200EMAs and starting the next leg up going into year end.
NEAR Long Spot Trade OpportunityMarket Context:
NEAR continues to demonstrate strength, presenting a solid opportunity for a long spot trade. The structure shows clear upward momentum, offering a favorable risk-to-reward ratio for entries within the identified range.
Trade Details:
Entry Zone: $5.85 – $6.50
Take Profit Targets:
First zone: $8.25 – $9.00
Second zone: $10.75 – $12.00
Stop Loss: Just below $5.50
This setup is well-defined, combining strong entry levels with clear profit targets while maintaining disciplined risk management. 🚀
Trade BoxI have decided to start providing my signals in the futures market, so this will be the last trading box model I draw. Starting tomorrow, I’ll share futures signals that I believe can yield good profits with reasonable leverage on gold and crypto markets. If you need, let me know the name of the cryptocurrency so we can focus on it for a week. From tomorrow, we’ll begin trading on gold.
Bitcoin Ascending Bullflag Breakout Target 140kI am still expecting significant resistance in the 120-130k range so to see this having a full target of 140k is pretty wild to me. Perhaps we have. Correction before reaching its full breakout target, or perhaps price sends a large wick above the resistance up there to hit this target before that resistance rejects price for a significant correction. Either way I do anticipate we rise to at least 120k on this next move up. *not financial advice*
Extrapolating previous cycle price action to predict the futureUsing the Indicator: 4-Year Cycles
Cycle Analysis:
Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 Changes:
ATH increased from $1,160 to $19,676 (16.96x increase)
Gain percentage dropped from 52,287.39% to 12,804.2%
Loss percentage slightly improved from 86.9% to 83.11%
Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 Changes:
ATH increased from $19,676 to $68,979 (3.51x increase)
Gain percentage dramatically dropped from 12,804.2% to 1,976.94%
Loss percentage improved from 83.11% to 75.93%
Projection for Cycle 4:
Based on the observed pattern of diminishing returns and the logarithmic nature of Bitcoin's growth:
Projected ATH: $242,000 to $275,000
(Calculated by applying the observed ATH increase factors)
Projected Gain: Approximately 800-1200%
(Continuing the trend of diminishing percentage gains)
Projected Loss: Around 70-75%
(Following the gradual improvement in loss mitigation)
Each cycle shows a pattern of:
Reduced percentage gains
Slightly improved loss recovery
Continued exponential growth in absolute ATH price
ATH Calculation:
Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 growth multiplier: $1,160 → $19,676 = 16.96x
Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 growth multiplier: $19,676 → $68,979 = 3.51x
Observed Growth Multiplier Trend:
Cycle 1 to 2: 16.96x
Cycle 2 to 3: 3.51x
Projection Approach:
Lower Bound Calculation:
Previous ATH: $68,979
Multiplier: 3.51 (conservative)
Lower target: $68,979 × 3.51 = $242,000
Upper Bound Calculation:
Previous ATH: $68,979
Multiplier: 4.0 (slightly more optimistic)
Upper target: $68,979 × 4.0 = $275,91
Gain Percentage Calculation:
Cycle 1: 52,287.39%
Cycle 2: 12,804.2%
Cycle 3: 1,976.94%
Observed Decline Pattern:
Cycle 1 to 2: ~75% reduction in gain percentage
Cycle 2 to 3: ~84% reduction in gain percentage
Projected Gain Range:
Lower bound: 600-800%
Upper bound: 1000-1200%
Loss Percentage Trend:
Cycle 1: 86.9%
Cycle 2: 83.11%
Cycle 3: 75.93%
Projected Loss: 70-75% (continuing the gradual improvement)
Methodology Notes:
Used geometric progression with decreasing multipliers
Considered logarithmic growth pattern
Accounted for diminishing returns observed in previous cycles
Disclaimer:
Ultimately, these projections are mathematical extrapolations based on historical data and should not be considered definitive predictions. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. This projection is based on historical patterns and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult financial professionals before making investment decisions.
AVVE IS STRONG...Hello friends
After its heavy fall, this coin has entered a suffering that it was able to successfully break.
Now, according to the strength of the trend, in case of correction, we have determined for you the points that are suitable for buying.
The possibility of ATH hitting this currency is very high.
If you like this analysis, support us.
Unbelievable profit!!!hello guys
We have come with the introduction of this coin, which we think can grow a lot.
After bottoming in weekly and daily time, this coin gives us this signal that it wants to grow big.
Now, according to the price, we suggest you to buy a step.
Now is the time to buy one step, and in case of modification, we have determined for you that it is suitable for buying two more steps.
The targets have also been specified that we drew for you.
If you like this analysis, please support us with like and comment
Gold is indeed showing a bullish trend, Gold is indeed showing a short-term bullish trend, supported by both technical and macroeconomic factors. Here’s an overview:
Current Market Dynamics
1. Price Levels:
Gold is trading around $2,658 per ounce, near its recent highs. This sustained price indicates strong market demand.
2. Technical Indicators:
Support Levels: Gold has held above key support at $2,650, reinforcing bullish momentum.
Resistance Levels: If this trend continues, gold is likely to test resistance around $2,700 and move higher.
3. Market Drivers:
A weaker U.S. dollar and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties are key factors driving gold’s demand as a safe-haven asset.
Central banks' continued gold purchases are providing strong underlying support.
Short-Term Projections
If the bullish trend persists, analysts project:
A move toward $2,700–$2,800 in the coming weeks.
Potential new highs if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable.
Key Risks
A break below $2,650 could lead to a pullback.
External factors, such as Federal Reserve policy announcements, may influence short-term volatility.
In summary, gold’s short-term outlook remains positive, with strong indicators pointing toward further gains. However, traders should watch for potential reversals if key support levels are breached. CAPITALCOM:GOLD
Probable move over VIBAgainst the background of maintaining purchases this week, there is a fairly high probability of moving over VIB, which has already given 6 waves of 25-70% over the past two months. Trying to grow against the established bearish trend on the monthly chart, technical rollbacks occur from most levels to the base of the previous figure, which gives new and new opportunities for scalping, despite the fact that the token remains in a rather oversold position with a small risk of drawdown. So far, the goal in the case of a calm market is to continue the reversal of the annual candle with an attempt to test the range of 0.15-25.
To date, we are drawing a shadow on a new weekly candle. The main reversal zone is the flat range of 0.0875-950 near the strong formed support level of 0.09. The opening of the month above 0.075 gives a signal for an attempt to consolidate above 0.1. The opening of the second half of the month above 0.09 supports this dynamic.
In an optimistic scenario and in the absence of a deeper pullback on the tops, a reversal and return to the bullish VIB trend is possible today with a reversal of the current daily candle into a bullish one. With less volatility and the closing of a new daily candle above 0.09, a return to the hay is likely within a couple of days. With a reversal today and tomorrow, there is a possibility of returning to the top of growth in the binance, even with a small percentage of price increase, given the low–volatility market. This could lead to a sharp influx of liquidity and a new breakdown, which we observed over the weekend. The new wave can give up to 50-70% growth at least.
With an extremely negative market and disruption of the tops, there is a probability of a deeper retest of 0.075-80. To date, a retest of this range is more likely at the end of the month after the breakout and in the absence of price consolidation above 0.125 or with a rebound from this level from the third wave.
Besides OG and TROY, VIB has the highest goals among coins without a monitoring tag.
PEPEUSDT Analysis And Next Market MoveName: PEPE MEME coin
Symbol: PEPE
Type: Meme Token
Timeframe: 8H
Analysis: Technical+Fundamentals
Trend : Bullish
Details:-
PEPE is setting at a strong support level. From this support level. Expecting 30% + quick gain. PEPE is a meme coin and people are thinking this is next DOGE coin.
Bullish Target:-
0.000030
0.000040
Cocoa vs BTC. Introducing Cocoa Futures Commodities TradingCommodity trading has been booming in recent months and years, as everything from industrial metals to oil, precious metals to soft commodities (coffee, cocoa) is getting hotter.
Last week, coffee futures traded in New York ICEUS:KC1! reached 348 cents per pound of beans, a new historical high, and frozen orange juice concentrate futures ICEUS:OJ1! exceeded the $5 mark for 1 pound, reaching also a new all-time high.
The macroeconomic situation, the continuing geopolitical uncertainty, as well as the overall market volatility caused by these large movements, create a lot of new opportunities.
In addition, the food and environmental crisis sweeping across the planet (a special type of environmental situation when the habitat of one of the species or populations changes in such a way that it calls into question its further existence) is creating extreme bottlenecks in supply chains everywhere, which leads to shortages on the one hand, and a corresponding increase in prices and opportunities on the other.
Both private investors and professional market participants can use Commodities Cocoa Futures to expand the possibilities of investment strategies - hedging risks and profiting from price fluctuations.
For market participants involved in the production and processing of cocoa, futures contracts will allow them to better protect their income from undesirable changes in exchange prices for cocoa beans.
In addition, for those market participants involved in the wholesale purchase of cocoa, futures contracts allow them to better protect their margins from undesirable price fluctuations in exchange prices for cocoa beans, which lead to an increase in purchasing costs.
The underlying asset of the futures is the price of cocoa beans on foreign markets. The contracts reflect the dynamics of the price of cocoa beans supplied from countries in Africa, Asia, Central and South America to any of the five delivery ports in the United States.
In fundamental terms, on November 29, 2024, the International Cocoa Association (ICCO) raised its estimate of the world cocoa deficit for 2023/24 to -478,000 tonnes from -462,000 tonnes forecast in May, the largest deficit in more than 60 years. ICCO also lowered its estimate of cocoa production for 2023/24 to 4.380 million tonnes from 4.461 million tonnes in May, a -13.1% decrease from the previous year. ICCO forecasts world cocoa stocks to be 27.0% in 2023/24, a 46-year low.
Cocoa prices have risen sharply over the past months due to uncertainty about future cocoa supplies. Recent heavy rains in Ivory Coast have led to reports of high mortality of cocoa buds on trees due to heavy rainfall.
Unfavorable weather conditions in West Africa are pushing cocoa prices sharply higher. Heavy rains in Ivory Coast have flooded fields, increased the risk of disease, and affected the quality of the crop. Newly harvested cocoa beans from Ivory Coast are showing lower quality, with quantities of about 105 beans per 100 grams. Ivory Coast regulators allow exporters to purchase quantities of 80 to 100 beans or slightly more per 100 grams.
In other words, West Africa is now exporting at its maximum productive capacity, but the deficit in world reserves remains and is growing.
The arrival of seasonal harmattan winds could also worsen the situation.
Declining global cocoa stocks is also a bullish factor for prices. Cocoa stocks tracked by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) at three major US ports (Delaware River Port, Hampton Roads Port and New York Port) have been declining for the past year and a half and fell to a 20-year low of 1,430,974 bags on Friday, December 13, 2024 (down 15 percent over the past month).
Another important factor for prices is the seasonal approach of the Christmas and New Year holidays, especially in the main cocoa consuming regions - the US and Europe.
Cocoa prices on world markets are again returning above $ 10,000 per ton, while crypto fanatics in their manic persistence to get the last unmined bitcoin are ready to burn the planet Earth to hell and only deepen the food and environmental crisis striding across the planet.
The main graph represents a comparison across BTC and Cocoa prices over past several months.
So, what would you like to choose amid of recent rally in both assets - sweet cocoa or binary digits inside your computer?
Or are you staying on the sidelines? Let’s talk about it!
Send your thoughts and questions into comment box below to discuss about Cocoa Futures Commodities Trading!