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Has BITCOIN reached its maximum and is a bear market coming?To make a prediction about Bitcoin’s next rally based on historical patterns, we should first examine the overall trends and how these increases and decreases have evolved in percentage terms. Data observations: 337,000% increase -> 93% decrease Massive increase, followed by a steep correction. 61,000% increase -> 86% decrease Significant increase, but smaller than the first, and the decline was still close in percentage terms. 11,000% increase -> 84% decrease Smaller increase, the decline remains large, but slightly milder. 2,000% increase -> 77% decrease Significantly smaller increase compared to previous cycles, and the decline continued to moderate. Observing a descending pattern: The increases seem to be getting smaller and smaller with each cycle, and the decreases also tend to be less severe. This shows diminishing returns on increases and a reduction in market volatility. Estimate for the next increase: Given this pattern, the next percentage increase could be significantly smaller than the last one (2,000%). If we apply a progressive reduction coefficient, as was the case in previous cycles, the increase could be around: ~300%-500%. This would mean a maximum increase of 5x from the low of the last cycle, and currently we have an increase of over 600%, that is, 6x. Is this ATH in this bull market? To estimate the duration of the next Bitcoin uptrend, we can analyze how the duration of these uptrend cycles has evolved over time: Historical data: 240 days 730 days 850 days 1050 days Notes: The increase in duration between cycles is not uniform, but follows a general trend of extending duration. The duration increase intervals were: From 240 -> 730: +490 days From 730 -> 850: +120 days From 850 -> 1050: +200 days Analysis: The duration extension appears to be accelerating moderately, with an irregular but generally increasing trend. If this pattern continues, the next cycle could add between 200 and 300 days to the previous duration (1050 days). Estimate: The duration of the next cycle could be: ~1250-1350 days. This estimate corresponds to a natural extension of Bitcoin cycles, reflecting wider adoption and lower volatility as the market becomes more mature.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Smaryo3001
4
$BTC correction bottom is $85000All the fanboys—Crypto Rover, Ash Crypto, Satoshi Stacker, Banter, etc.—are singing the same tune: *"We're back!"* They claim CRYPTOCAP:BTC is still in a bullish pattern, that the December 20th -15% crash was just an anomaly, and so on. As usual, these CRYPTOCAP:BTC enthusiasts are acting like PR agents for Blackrock and Sailor, hyping the market to attract your money. If you're into altcoins, be cautious—the charts are telling a different story than their optimistic chatter. Remember June 2024? They were promising rewards if CRYPTOCAP:BTC hit $80K by the end of the week. How generous! And yet, CRYPTOCAP:BTC dropped -31%, with many altcoins plunging -80% over the following three months. I sent my weekly chart showing bearish divergence to all of them back then. None paid attention, and I was right. This time, while we're not in an identical scenario (the weekly timeframe still looks bullish), the daily timeframe shows a clear downward trend. Until this plays out, there's no reason to get overly optimistic. This means we could see selling pressure for the next week, dragging most altcoins down with CRYPTOCAP:BTC as the correction completes. The expected bottom for CRYPTOCAP:BTC is around $85,000, give or take. After that, the bull run should resume—I don’t think we’re heading into a bear market just yet. As always, DYOR!
by CryptoNikkoid
2
"Bitcoin to $13M per coin" - Michael SaylorBitcoin annualized performance is 60% on average Let that sink in Most traders trading Bitcoin aren't nowhere near that. 1. Introduction to MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Strategy Michael Saylor began by outlining MicroStrategy’s decision to make CRYPTOCAP:BTC its primary treasury reserve asset. He explained that the company sees Bitcoin as a superior store of value and an effective hedge against inflation. Traditional fiat currencies, according to Saylor, are increasingly unreliable due to monetary policies that devalue them over time. By embracing Bitcoin, MicroStrategy positions itself as a pioneer in the corporate adoption of digital assets. 2. Leveraging Zero-Interest Convertible Bonds Saylor delved into MicroStrategy’s innovative financing strategies, particularly the issuance of zero-interest convertible bonds. These bonds, amounting to approximately $3 billion, were issued with a 0% interest rate. This seemingly advantageous rate is a result of high investor demand, driven by the value of the embedded call options within the bonds. The volatility of MicroStrategy’s stock, tied closely to Bitcoin’s price movements, makes these options particularly appealing. NASDAQ:MSTR volatility is about 2X the CRYPTOCAP:BTC volatility. Additionally, the bonds were issued at a 55% conversion premium, the highest for such instruments at the time, reflecting strong market confidence in the company’s strategy. Saylor explained that these zero-interest loans allow MicroStrategy to acquire CRYPTOCAP:BTC without the financial burden of servicing interest payments. This approach enables the company to maximize its exposure to Bitcoin while maintaining financial flexibility. 3. Current Bitcoin Holdings and Financial Impact Saylor provided an update on MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings. As of November 2024, the company owns 279,420 bitcoins, purchased for a total cost of $11.9 billion, with an average acquisition price of $42,692 per Bitcoin. With Bitcoin’s price surpassing $90,000, the company’s holdings are now worth over $25 billion, representing more than a 100% return on investment. He highlighted how this significant appreciation in Bitcoin’s value has bolstered MicroStrategy’s market capitalization and increased shareholder value. The company’s bold approach has attracted considerable attention from institutional investors and positioned it as a leader in the corporate adoption of Bitcoin. 4. Future Outlook for Bitcoin Saylor expressed an extremely bullish outlook for Bitcoin, suggesting that its price could rise to $13 million per coin in the long term. He emphasized that Bitcoin’s fixed supply and growing adoption make it an inevitable cornerstone of the global financial system. Saylor believes that Bitcoin’s value will continue to increase as more institutions and individuals recognize its potential as a store of value and an inflation hedge. He also addressed the regulatory landscape, noting the challenges posed by governments and central banks. However, Saylor remains optimistic, arguing that the decentralized nature of Bitcoin makes it resilient against such challenges. 5. Critique of Traditional Financial Systems Saylor criticized the inefficiencies and risks of traditional banking systems and fiat currencies. He explained that central banks’ monetary policies, such as excessive money printing, erode the value of fiat currencies, making them unreliable for long-term wealth preservation. Bitcoin, on the other hand, offers a decentralized and deflationary alternative that protects against these risks. He also argued that Bitcoin’s adoption is inevitable as it offers a superior solution for wealth storage in a digital, globalized world. Saylor positioned Bitcoin as a foundational technology for financial innovation. 6. Strategic Vision and Long-Term Commitment In closing, Saylor reaffirmed MicroStrategy’s long-term commitment to Bitcoin. He emphasized the importance of maintaining a forward-looking vision, especially during periods of market volatility. For MicroStrategy, Bitcoin is not merely an investment but a strategic asset that aligns with the company’s core mission of creating and preserving shareholder value. Saylor ended by encouraging other companies and investors to consider adopting Bitcoin as part of their long-term strategies, arguing that early adoption offers the most significant rewards. He underscored the transformative potential of Bitcoin, not just for corporations, but for the global financial system as a whole. 7. LONG AND STRONG Critics of MicroStrategy’s aggressive Bitcoin strategy raise valid concerns, particularly regarding market volatility, regulatory risks, and the company’s reliance on debt to fund its investments. However, it’s important to understand the rationale behind Michael Saylor’s approach and the broader context of Bitcoin as a financial asset. Saylor’s strategy reflects an unwavering belief in Bitcoin’s long-term value as a hedge against inflation and a superior store of wealth compared to fiat currencies. His boldness in using innovative financial instruments, such as zero-interest convertible bonds, demonstrates his deep understanding of both financial markets and the transformative nature of Bitcoin. Saylor’s intelligence and foresight cannot be underestimated. He is betting on a paradigm shift in global finance, and institutions like pension funds, BlackRock, and other financial powerhouses are beginning to adopt similar strategies, reinforcing his vision. CRYPTOCAP:BTC is not a speculative, short-term investment; it is a long-term play. The minimum recommended investment period for Bitcoin should be 10 years, while the optimal strategy is to hold it indefinitely. Selling Bitcoin prematurely undermines its potential as an asset designed to preserve and grow wealth in an environment where politicians and central banks continue to print money, devaluing traditional currencies. Betting against Saylor and Bitcoin is betting against a future where decentralized, deflationary assets redefine the financial system. As Saylor often emphasizes, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and growing global adoption make it an asset poised to appreciate forever, rewarding those with the patience and foresight to hold for the long term. Thank you for reading Daveatt
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by Daveatt
Bitcoin Mid TermFirst Impression: The BTC/USD pair appears to have dropped below the $95,000 level and is under selling pressure. Strong support levels are evident in lower regions. The price is retracing toward levels that previously acted as support during bullish moves. Volume Analysis: No notable increase in volume is observed on the chart. This could indicate that the current downward move is a low-volume correction or that the market is indecisive. However, if volume increases, the likelihood of the downtrend continuing may rise. Price Action: The price is trading around $94,000, showing downward movement. Below, key support levels are visible near $90,700, $88,000, and $85,000. These levels have historically been areas where strong buyers stepped in, making them potential zones for price reactions. Positive Scenario: If the price holds at $94,000 and starts a recovery move, it could climb back above $95,000. In this case, $97,500 would be the first target. Sustained movement above this level could push the price back toward the psychological resistance at $100,000. Negative Scenario: If the price drops below $94,000, a decline toward $90,700 becomes more likely. A break below this support level could lead to further declines to $88,000 and then $85,000. This scenario would indicate continued selling pressure. High Probability: Given current market conditions, it is highly probable that the price consolidates between $90,700 and $94,000 for some time. The balance of buyers and sellers in this zone will determine the direction of the next trend. Overall: The BTC/USD pair is trading near a critical support zone. The $94,000 level should be closely monitored; a drop below this level could drive the price toward lower supports. For upward recoveries, $95,000 and $97,500 are the first resistance levels to watch. Strategies should be adjusted based on volume and price action.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptoSignalAPP
XRP – Bullish Flag Pattern Suggests Further Upside PotentialTechnical Overview: Bullish Flag Formation: XRP is consolidating within a bullish flag pattern, typically indicative of a continuation of its prior uptrend. Previous Rally: After surging from $0.60 to nearly $2.80, XRP has demonstrated strength by consistently holding support above $2.40, signaling accumulation rather than distribution. Key Levels to Watch: Breakout Point: A breakout above the flag's upper trendline, accompanied by increased volume, could confirm the bullish setup. Targets: Initial target: $3.00-$3.20, aligning with measured moves from the flag pattern. Longer-term potential: Continuation above $3.20 could open doors to further price discovery. Supporting Factors: Long-Term Base: XRP’s breakout earlier in 2024 from a long-term base adds strength to the current bullish setup. Volume Confirmation: Increased trading volume during the breakout would validate buyer interest and bolster the bullish case. Risk Management: Key Support: Maintaining support above $2.40 is critical for the bullish thesis. A breakdown below this level could signal invalidation of the pattern. Conclusion: XRP's bullish flag pattern indicates potential continuation of its prior uptrend. A breakout above the flag's trendline with volume confirmation could set sights on $3.00-$3.20 and beyond, reinforcing Ripple’s strong bullish potential heading into 2024.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by Richtv_official
Bitcoin in lower timeframes (4H)Bitcoin appears to be within a "Trading Range" on lower timeframes. Within this range, a bearish "QM" (Quasimodo) pattern seems to have formed. To complete the right shoulder of this QM, the price may need to rise to higher levels (red box). It could move from the green box up to the red box. Generally, during the year-end holiday period, many large and small traders need cash and sell part of their assets, causing a mid-level correction in the market. During these days, the market seeks liquidity hunts and fluctuations within a specific range. At this stage, it's advisable to reduce the number of your trades and avoid futures trading to some extent. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management Comment if you have any questions Thank You
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by behdark
HelenP. I Bitcoin can make correction and then continue growHi folks today I'm prepared for you Bitcoin analytics. In the chart, we can see how the price fell to the support level and some time traded near it and later broke this level and continued to decline to the trend line. After this movement, the price turned around and made impulse up, thereby reaching the 99500 level one more time and soon broke it again. Later, the price some time traded near this level and then continued to move up to the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone. When the price reached this level, it first made the correction and then made an impulse up, breaking the resistance level. After this, the price reached a new ATH (108K points) and then dropped to the trend line, breaking the resistance level again. Soon, BTC broke the trend line and fell to the support level, but a not long time ago it rebounded and started to move up. For this case, I expect that BTCUSDT will make small corrections and then continue to move up to the resistance level. That's why I set my goal at 105000 level. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Long
by FirstNameHelen
8
The last bullish chance of BITCOIN in Short term!Bitcoin reached a new high yesterday but then dropped to $92,000 to liquidate positions. This price decline created a bearish scenario. As you can see, Bitcoin is forming a descending wedge. If this pattern breaks, the price could drop to $92,000. However, we cannot say Bitcoin is bearish right now because as long as the wedge does not break, Bitcoin can still be bullish. So, we wait to be sure. Give me some energy !! ✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us. Best regards CobraVanguard.💚 _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟! ⚠️Things can change... The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
by CobraVanguard
13
Bitcoin price is on a crossroadHello, Traders! After reaching a new ATH at $108k, Bitcoin experienced a significant drop following Jerome Powell's speech that the Fed cannot hold Bitcoin and is not seeking to change that, which seems to have caused some uncertainty in the market. As a result, BTC price saw a steep decline, but it recently rebounded, almost touching the $100k level again. The current focus for Bitcoin is a critical support area at around $91k. This area has held up well in recent price action, and we saw a recovery bounce from this region again. There is a strong chance that BTC could revisit this support area in the coming days, and it could provide another opportunity for a potential rebound. This support area is essential because it represents a significant price range where buyers have stepped in to defend the uptrend. If Bitcoin does test this zone again and holds above $91k, the probability of a further upward move remains high. In addition to the immediate price action, there’s a key factor to consider: the monthly candle close. Bitcoin needs to close the current monthly candle above $96k for the market to maintain its bullish sentiment. A green monthly close at this level would provide strong confirmation that the overall trend remains intact and that BTC is on track for further price appreciation. The next few days are critical for determining whether BTC can sustain momentum to close the month in the green. If Bitcoin can hold above $96k by the end of the month, it would signal that the upward trend is still in play and that a continuation toward higher levels could be on the horizon. Looking ahead to next week, there are two possible scenarios: 1. Continued Support Test: Bitcoin may dip back towards the $91k support area. If this area holds strong, it could set up another bullish reversal, targeting a move back toward the $100k area or even beyond. 2. Break Below Support: If Bitcoin fails to maintain support in the $91k area, we could see further downside, potentially testing lower levels. In this case, caution is warranted, as the next major support zone would be considerably lower. Conclusion The next week could be crucial for Bitcoin’s price action. A monthly candle close above $96k would reinforce the bullish outlook, but if Bitcoin fails to hold support or closes the month in red, we may see more volatility in the near term. Please don’t forget to boost this idea and leave your comments below.
by Real_CryptoRoy
1
$BTC - Crucial Level We got a nice absorption into 92k, price rebounded with bullish flows in equities this brought back the passive buyer behind price. So far, we're holding 96k during the weekend, however, weekly close will be a tell-tell as we need to get above m_rvwap We're now rejecting at 98.5k and if we can't get above our m_rvwap , higher chance we'll slow bleed until 88k to 86k. 98.5k is a crucial level to reclaim in the short term, else, will consider this as bearish retest.
by Tealstreet
BTC/USDT Analysis:Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Analysis: The green box marks a crucial support level between $90,000 and $92,500. Historically, this area has acted as a strong demand zone where buyers have stepped in to increase prices. The price has broken below the mid-boundary of the ascending channel and is currently trading near the lower boundary. A retest of the green box is possible if the bearish momentum persists. The green moving average (possibly 200 EMA or similar) is slightly above the current price. This suggests that the price is losing upward momentum and the moving average could act as resistance on any bounce. The red arrow on the chart indicates a possible move downwards towards the green support zone. DYOR, NFA @Peter_CSAdmin
by CryptoSanders9563
KAIAUSDT - Technical Analysis and Trading Plan Market Overview KAIAUSDT has shown a strong bounce from the lower boundary of the descending channel, with signs of a potential trend reversal. The price is attempting to break the structure, and the target is set at 0.3997. Key Observations 1. Descending Channel: - KAIAUSDT has been trading within a descending channel for a significant period. - A breakout above the channel will confirm bullish momentum. 2. Entry and Stop-Loss: - Entry is identified around 0.2282, aligning with a rebound point. - Stop-loss is placed at -5%, below the recent low, to minimize risks. 3. Take-Profit Level: - The first target is highlighted at 0.3997, which aligns with prior resistance levels. 4. Bullish Momentum Signs: - Price has been forming higher lows near the lower boundary of the channel, indicating potential accumulation. Momentum and Indicators 1. Volume: - Increased buying volume near the lower channel boundary indicates strong bullish interest. 2. Projection: - If the price sustains above the entry level and breaks the channel, further upward momentum is expected. --- Trading Plan 1. Entry Points: - Enter around 0.2282, as the price is showing signs of reversal. 2. Stop-Loss: - Set a stop-loss at 5% below the entry level to manage risks effectively. 3. Profit Targets: - Primary Target: 0.3997, as highlighted on the chart. 4. Risk Management: - Avoid over-leveraging and risk no more than 2% of total capital on this trade. Scenarios 1. Bullish Scenario: - Price breaks out of the descending channel and continues toward the target of 0.3997. 2. Bearish Scenario: - Failure to sustain above 0.2282 may lead to a retest of lower levels within the channel. Pro Summary KAIAUSDT is showing potential signs of a bullish reversal, supported by the channel pattern and volume analysis. Traders should monitor the breakout confirmation while aligning their trades with the defined entry, stop-loss, and target levels. //// DYOR (Do Your Own Research) This analysis serves as an overview of potential trading strategies and market behavior but is not exhaustive. Traders are encouraged to perform additional analysis to make informed decisions. Disclaimer This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading cryptocurrencies and other financial instruments involves risks, including capital loss. Always consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Long
by Supachai-Taechapisit
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Analysis📉 Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Analysis ⏰ Timeframe: 4-Hour ✅ Trend: Currently, Bitcoin is showing a bearish structure in the 4-hour timeframe. 🎯 Expectation: I anticipate further downside movement for Bitcoin, aligning with the arrow drawn in the analysis. 💬 For updates on this signal and access to more profitable setups: 1️⃣ Follow my TradingView page 📊 2️⃣ Send me a private message for additional guidance. 💎 Let’s navigate the market together! 💰
Short
by DAVID_SNIPERRR
Bitcoin | Low Timeframe TradeIf the market breaks below the red line, I will place an order at 98.464$ as shown in the figure. This is a low timeframe trade and please do not take too much risk on it. I usually do my analysis in the high timeframe and take most of my risk there. I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions. My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups. My Previous Analysis 🐶 DOGEUSDT.P: Next Move 🎨 RENDERUSDT.P: Opportunity of the Month 💎 ETHUSDT.P: Where to Retrace 🟢 BNBUSDT.P: Potential Surge 📊 BTC Dominance: Reaction Zone 🌊 WAVESUSDT.P: Demand Zone Potential 🟣 UNIUSDT.P: Long-Term Trade 🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones 🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River 📈 BTCUSDT.P: Two Key Demand Zones 🟩 POLUSDT: Bullish Momentum 🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision 🔥 BTCUSDT.P: Liquidation of Highly Leveraged Longs 🌊 SOLUSDT.P: SOL's Dip - Your Opportunity 🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P: Prime Bounce Zone Unlocked 🚀 ETHUSDT.P: Set to Explode - Don't Miss This Game Changer 🤖 IQUSDT: Smart Plan ⚡️ PONDUSDT: A Trade Not Taken Is Better Than a Losing One 💼 STMXUSDT: 2 Buying Areas 🐢 TURBOUSDT: Buy Zones and Buyer Presence 🌍 ICPUSDT.P: Massive Upside Potential | Check the Trade Update For Seeing Results 🟠 IDEXUSDT: Spot Buy Area | %26 Profit if You Trade with MSB 📌 USUALUSDT: Buyers Are Active + %70 Profit in Total
Long
by XU99