Btc-e
$BTC Macrolast idea remains intact—we are still bullish. Alts have held strong while BTC plunged. (I don’t own any BTC, and neither should you above $100K.)
I predicted the exact $15.5K bottom on X, as well as the August 5th crash and bottom. Unfortunately, I wasn’t on the charts in December and missed the biggest, clearest signal on USDT.D for a potential local top, which otherwise would have 2x'd my current portfolio but mistakes were made)
BTC taking the hits while alts hold steady is a strong sign that whales are taking profits from Bitcoin and preparing for "rotation".
Most traders believe the cycle is over—and there are valid reasons for that (some of them are):
- A monthly bearish engulfing candle
- A structure resembling the 2021 top, suggesting one last rally before the bear market
- Worst of all, double bearish divergence on the monthly, which worries me too
However, there are strong counterarguments.
The biggest? The cycle has never topped with BTC.D this weak. That’s why I’m still leaning toward a bullish scenario until proven otherwise.
Update on the above chart:
The parabola is intact with a beautiful reaction. That doesn’t mean we can’t still visit the red box—there’s only air between them—but I’m holding, and that remains my primary scenario.
Alts can make new lows, but RR isn’t worth it. As I’ve said before, the time to sell spot bags has passed. You don’t sell in between unless invalidation occurs.
Timing is everything. We failed to time this market, assuming it would mimic past cycles—but everyone was wrong. Traders won this cycle, while investors (except BTC holders) struggled... until now, at least.
ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BOTH SCENARIOS (MENTIONED ON CHART) FOR ALTS?
You have to wait way longer on the second scenario but both would take us to our goal.
Worst case? We break and HTF close on USDT.D - last hope, officially ending bull market!
HelenP. I Bitcoin may continue move down to $80KHi folks today I'm prepared for you Bitcoin analytics. Not long ago, BTC dropped to the first resistance level, which aligned with a key resistance zone, before reversing and climbing toward the second resistance level, which also coincided with another resistance area. After breaking through this level, Bitcoin continued to rise, reaching the trend line, but soon started to decline. In a short time, the price fell back to the resistance level, eventually breaking below it. However, BTC quickly rebounded, not only recovering its losses but also pushing above the trend line. After that, it reversed direction once again, dropping back to the first resistance level. Following this movement, Bitcoin bounced back, climbed to the trend line, and then began to decline while hovering near it. At one point, BTC temporarily broke above the trend line and traded within a range for some time. Later, it reversed again, falling back to the trend line, breaking through the first resistance level, and recently even dropping below the trend line. At this stage, I believe the price might push slightly above the trend line before resuming its decline. With that in mind, my goal is set at 80K. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
BlackRock & BitcoinA giant's journey into the world of blockchain!
This post highlights how BlackRock's balance sheet and profits have changed since the introduction of the Bitcoin ETF. The data is collected from the Arkham platform. The information will be updated periodically.
28.02.2025
Current balance: 577.9K BTC
Total Profit: +11B USD
This rapid growth underscores BlackRock's confidence in bitcoin's long-term potential and signals a new era of institutional growth. Take a look at the chart to see the trend of balance sheet growth since the ETF's launch. Will BlackRock continue to grow Bitcoins? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Data has been verified through Arkham Intelligence. Updates will follow.
Alex Kostenich,
Horban Brothers.
SONIC ( PRE FTM )Analysis of the FTM OR Sonic currency
It seems that a trend reversal has formed and has completed 5 microwaves in the form of a larger wave 1
Next we need to see if it can break the major ceiling to confirm the new move
If you liked the analysis, share it with your friends and write down your comments
XRP ANALYSISVery important #XRP analysis on the daily time frame
Which in my opinion is one of the most important time frames to understand and comprehend the next movement of this currency.
So stay with us to be aware of the Ripple trend
If you liked this analysis, share it with your friends
Thank you
Bitcoin BTC Is Ready To Take Off!Hello, Skyrexians!
Yesterday we pointed out that 0.5 Fibonacci has been reached at $80k and this dump will not continue. Today we have a great bounce above $85 and the great chart to be sure that our previous scenario is right.
Let's take a look at the daily time frame. As usual we have the 5 Elliott wave cycle which has been started at GETTEX:49K and finished at $110k. Then the current correction has been started. Yesterday this ABC zigzag has reached the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement and bounced back. The great thing is the green dot on the Bullish/Bearish Reversal Bar Indicator inside the target zone. This gives us 90% probability that price has found the bottom and ready for the next huge wave to the upside.
Best regards,
Skyrexio Team
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Next Volatility Period: Around March 4th (March 3rd-5th)
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
Since the RSI indicator has fallen below 30, if the price maintains or rises at the current position, the HA-Low indicator is expected to be generated.
Therefore, the key is whether it can be supported near the Fibonacci ratio point of 2.24 (83646.12).
In order to turn upward, it must rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart.
However, in order for a full-scale uptrend to begin, the price must rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart and be maintained.
In this regard, I think that the Fibonacci ratio range of 2.618 (87814.27) ~ 1.618 (89050.0) is an important support and resistance range.
-
The fact that the HA-Low indicator was created means that it has escaped the low range, so it can be used as a basis for creating a trading strategy.
However, if it falls without support near the HA-Low indicator, there is a possibility of a stepwise downtrend, so you should think about a countermeasure for this.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.
Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the increase is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
-
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
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Bitcoin Looks Good: Trading Cryptocurrency Talk TherapyTo me, Bitcoin looks really good. The month closed above $80,000. Soon we will have the weekly close. There can be some bearish action as it happened recently but when prices recover, all ends up being just noise. Truly noise when you consider what was being said in the press. "The correction is just getting started." "Bitcoin will go down for months, until May-June." "The bull-market is over."
Some people are talking about risk management and whatnot when Bitcoin hits 80K. It is bad advice they say to tell people to hold. What is the right choice in this type of scenario?
The basics require a strategy before trading, a plan. The plan is simply defining which actions you would take based on different scenarios. If you bought Bitcoin at $50,000 and failed to sell when Bitcoin was trading at $100,000 for more than two months, it is very unwise to talk about risk management or selling when Bitcoin hits bottom. Sell when the crash is on? Makes no sense to me.
If you didn't sell on the way up, you didn't have a strategy, then the best move is to hold. Normally, we would sell portions at each resistance level until all of our coins are gone. When the correction comes, we buy at support.
If you didn't sell when prices were high up, near resistance, then the opportunity is missed. Nothing happens but the right choice is to wait. This time around, prepare a plan beforehand, when to sell and how much? That's the question you need to answer before the bullish cycle reaches its end.
Since the action is already on-going, Bitcoin traded sideways for more than two months, when the crash is on, the best choice is to hold. FOMO or panic anything won't produce any positive results. Selling at the bottom is a waste of time, energy and money, because whatever you sell will soon start to grow. All the other pairs are in the same situation. To avoid being in this position, plan ahead of time.
There will be a new bullish cycle, a new advance and a new bullish wave. There will also be a new peak and a new correction, so plan now to avoid falling victim to the same mistakes.
It is alright to get it wrong. It is not right to make the same mistakes over and over. Sell when prices are high, buy when prices are low.
We buy when prices are trading at the bottom or near support. The Altcoins already hit bottom and that's our buy zone. Right now is the time to accumulate. If Bitcoin looks hard, there thousands of Altcoins that look ready to grow and strong.
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
Namaste.
BTC Rebalance in Play? Key Retrace Setup Unfolding!Bitcoin has tapped into a bullish imbalance on the weekly timeframe—a natural move as the market seeks to rebalance. 🔄 We often see reactions around the midpoint of these levels.
If price starts ranging sideways and breaks structure to the upside, we could consider a counter-trend trade on the retrace, then look for another sell opportunity as it pulls back. 📊
I’ll aim to follow up with a video over the weekend. Stay tuned! 🎥
Not financial advice. ⚠️
$BTC Critical Support Retest at 50WMA - Must Read!50WMA is a CRITICAL SUPPORT to watch for ₿itcoin.
Historically, if CRYPTOCAP:BTC closes below it for more than one week, it signals the beginning of the BEAR MARKET.
We’ve only seen BTC close beneath the 50WMA once in its history during a Post-Halving year, and that was in 2021, but then rallied to a new ATH.
People often ask me what would invalidate my bull market thesis;
this is one of them.
I’ll be watching this support very closely, and if BTC closes below it for more than 2 weeks, i’m probably selling a good portion of my stack until we get more clarity in the market.
However, this could very well have been the bottom of this correction.
BTC is known to have a big Q1 drawdown in Post-Halving years.
2013 was a massive -82% correction over a week.
2017 gave us two.
January -34% over 7 days.
March -33% over 14 days.
January 2021 gave us -31% over 14 days.
The current correction we’ve seen with BTC has been the longest over 35 days with -28%.
$75k would be a -31% correction, which would line up perfectly with the previous cycle.
That’s the line in the sand for me.
If we did see the bottom with this 28% correction, that would line up with the diminishing return theory.
MicroStrategy $MSTR | MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Bet Sees 20% DropMicroStrategy NASDAQ:MSTR | MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Bet Sees 20% Drop Feb28'25
With recent downturns in the crypto market, Bitcoin's sharp drop has significantly impacted companies like MicroStrategy NASDAQ:MSTR , which has heavily invested in crypto. I've kept this analysis updated for my students throughout the week and figured I'd post it publicly.
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
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Bitcoin Finds Strong Support – Is a Reversal on the Horizon?hello guys
Bitcoin recently completed a crown pattern, a bearish reversal formation that signaled a downward move. As expected, BTC followed the pattern structure and reached its target.
Currently, the price has touched two critical technical levels:
✔ The balance line – A key horizontal support zone
✔ The ascending trendline – Acting as dynamic support from previous lows
This confluence of support suggests that BTC might be at a potential reversal zone. However, while the conditions seem favorable for an upward movement, we need additional confirmation. Possible bullish signals to watch for include:
A strong bullish candlestick pattern (e.g., engulfing, pin bar)
Increased buying volume
A break above the nearest resistance level
If BTC maintains this support, we could see a recovery towards $90K+ levels in the short term. Otherwise, a breakdown below the trendline may trigger further downside.
Bitcoin’s Candlestick Pattern- Reversal Signal Confirmed?As I expected in the previous post , Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) started to fall with the help of a Symmetrical Triangle Pattern .
Bitcoin is moving near Support lines and the important Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
According to the theory of Elliott waves , Bitcoin seems to have successfully completed its 5 downward impulse waves . One of the signs of the completion of the main wave 5 is the Regular Divergence (RD+) between two consecutive valleys .
Another sign of Bitcoin's reverse can be the Hammer Candlestick Pattern .
Let's take some risks today and swim against the current, but please follow capital management and follow your strategy .
I expect Bitcoin to rise to at least the Heavy Support zone($93,300-$90,500)(broken) after breaking the Resistance zone($88,200-$87,450) .
Do you think Bitcoin can rise to at least $90,000 again?
Note: If Bitcoin goes below $84,500, we can expect more dumps .
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BTC: Feb2025 UpdateCRYPTOCAP:BTC update
As long as #Bitcoin holds above $74K, the bullish outlook remains valid, and a new all-time high is expected.
However, if the price drops below $74K with high volume—without reaching a new ATH first—it could confirm the start of a bear market.
Once this potential bullish wave concludes, a critical bearish scenario could follow.
BTC will fill CME GAP at around 77KWe're seeing some wild swings in Bitcoin's price, and I'm calling it: this isn't just the market doing its thing. I mean, where's all the BTC on exchanges? It's like there's none left, and the prices are shooting up to levels that Wall Street boys would think twice about jumping into.
This smells like big-time manipulation by the heavy hitters, like those hedge fund giants and the exchanges themselves. They've got the power to make the market dance, and with so little Bitcoin floating around, every move they make has an outsized impact. It's like they're playing with a loaded deck.
I'm not saying I've got the smoking gun, but the signs are there. When you see prices that don't match the supply, you gotta wonder, right? Are we just pawns in their game, or is there something else at play?
Let's keep our eyes peeled, because if this is manipulation, it's on a whole new level. What do you guys think? Am I onto something, or am I just seeing shadows?
Remember, this is speculative based on what we're observing in the market, and while manipulation is a concern, it's one among many factors influencing crypto prices.
Whats your thouhts?
BTC CME GAP
- A new gap was created this weekend on the CME.
- BTC's price is higher there, which is typical.
- A gap isn’t always filled; while many do eventually close as prices retrace, it’s never guaranteed.
- This isn’t a price analysis, but rather an alert to monitor the gap.
- I’ll add my previous gap analysis in the comments.
Happy Tr4Ding
Bitcoin can break support level and continue to fall in channelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. Looking at the chart, we can see that the price moved into a range, where it initially surged to the seller zone, touching the upper boundary. After that, it quickly reversed and dropped to the lower part of the range, which aligned with the 93900 level, before bouncing back up. The price made another attempt to reach the seller zone, but this time it broke out of the range and started declining within a downward channel. Inside the channel, BTC initially touched the support line but struggled to gain momentum and continued to fall. Not long after, the price broke through the 93900 level, retested it, and then dropped further to the support level, which overlapped with the buyer zone. It even briefly broke this level, reaching the channel’s support line before making a sharp recovery. Following this bounce, BTC quickly reclaimed the broken support level and is currently trading near the 88100 mark. In my view, Bitcoin could rise to test the channel’s resistance line before resuming its downtrend and breaking the support level again. Based on this, I’ve set my TP at 85000 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Bitcoin (BTC) Bearish Sentiment with Key Levels in FocusThe recent Bitcoin (BTC) price action suggests a bearish sentiment despite the broader long-term uptrend. The market reached an all-time high of $109,000 on January 20, 2025, before reversing, signalling potential downside risks.
Formation of a Double-Top Reversal Pattern
BTC has formed a double-top pattern, a classic bearish reversal setup.
The critical “neckline” support level at $91,900 was breached, confirming the trend reversal.
A corrective pullback from this level has intensified selling pressure, increasing the likelihood of further downside movement.
Key Support & Resistance Levels
Immediate Resistance: $86,227
Major Resistance Levels:
$89,075
$91,900 (previous neckline, now acting as resistance)
Key Support Levels:
$77,900
$74,900
$72,750 (long-term support)
Bearish Scenario
If BTC fails to sustain a move above $86,227, the price could resume its decline.
A rejection at this level would reinforce downside pressure, targeting $77,900 initially, with extended losses toward $74,900 and $72,750 in a deeper correction.
Bullish Alternative: Breakout Confirmation
A daily close above $86,227 would invalidate the immediate bearish outlook.
A sustained breakout could lead to a rally toward $89,075, followed by a potential retest of the $91,900 neckline resistance.
A confirmed reclaim of $91,900 could shift momentum back to the bulls, opening the door for renewed upside.
Conclusion
BTC’s price action remains bearish in the short-to-medium term, with key resistance at $86,227 dictating the next move. A failure to break higher could reinforce the downtrend, while a confirmed breakout above resistance would shift sentiment bullish. Traders should closely watch these critical levels for confirmation of the next directional move.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Bitcoin's Next Move: Accumulation or Breakdown?The Market at a Tipping Point – What's Next for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $80,594, sitting 26.7% below its all-time high of $109,951 reached just over a month ago. The market is showing signs of uncertainty—traders are caught between a potential accumulation phase and a looming correction.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flashing 38.2, creeping towards oversold territory, while the Money Flow Index (MFI) at 28.2 suggests that liquidity is drying up. With MA50 at 84,015 and MA200 at 92,048, BTC remains below key moving averages, signaling bearish momentum in the short term. But is this really a time to sell—or could this be a golden accumulation zone before the next leg up?
Recent VSA Buy Patterns indicate that smart money could be positioning for an upward move. However, resistance at $84,686 looms overhead, a level that must be reclaimed before bulls can take control. On the flip side, failure to hold above $76,701 support could open the floodgates to lower levels.
So, what’s the verdict? Breakout or breakdown—who’s ready for the next move?
Bitcoin's Price Roadmap: Tracking the Smart Money Moves
The market never lies, but it sure knows how to fake out the crowd. Let's break down the most recent Bitcoin (BTC) price action through the lens of high-impact VSA patterns and volume dynamics, separating the noise from the real moves.
Phase 1: The Sell-Off – Smart Money Setting the Trap?
2025-02-26 18:00 UTC – Sell Volumes Max kicks in, sending BTC downward from $86,002 to $84,112, a clear indication that the big players were offloading before the next major move.
2025-02-28 01:00 UTC – Confirmation: Another Sell Volumes pattern emerges, pushing BTC lower to $81,613. The downward momentum is undeniable. Bears are in control.
Phase 2: A Reversal or a Trap?
2025-02-28 08:00 UTC – VSA Buy Pattern Extra 1st emerges at $79,176, signaling an accumulation phase. The structure suggests a comeback, but we need validation.
2025-02-28 06:00 UTC – VSA Buy Pattern Extra 2nd confirms the recovery as BTC moves up from $79,953 to $80,392, bouncing off key liquidity zones.
Phase 3: Where Are We Now?
Bitcoin's ability to reclaim $80K+ and sustain above the $78K liquidity zone suggests that the market might be done with the shakeout. However, true confirmation lies in breaking $84,686 resistance before bulls can run the show.
The MFI at 28.2 still signals low liquidity, meaning bulls need fresh momentum to confirm a sustainable move.
Key Takeaway: The Next Play
If BTC holds above $80K, watch for a move toward $84K+. If volume dries up, expect another flush before the real pump begins. Either way, the big money has already placed their bets—are you ready?
Technical & Price Action Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
When it comes to Bitcoin, levels are everything—play them right, and you’re in the game. Miss them, and you’re catching knives. Here’s what’s on the board:
📍 Resistance Levels – Where the Heat Is
$84,686 – First roadblock, and where sellers could step in hard.
$92,058.5 – If BTC rips past 84K, this is the next stop.
$94,036.1 – Mid-level supply zone; needs a breakout confirmation.
$96,271.2 – Psychological barrier before the big leagues.
$100,796.4 – The last line before full-on euphoria.
🛠️ Support Levels – Where the Bounces Happen
$76,701.7 – If bulls want a second chance, they gotta hold this.
$67,838.7 – Break this, and we’re talking deeper retrace.
$60,295.6 – Final line of defense before things get ugly.
$47,122.4 – Buyers better show up here.
$28,696.9 – Let’s not even talk about this one…
🚀 Powerful Levels – The True Battlegrounds
Support: $96,262.6 – Bulls want this level back, or it flips to resistance.
Resistance: $76,701.7 – If price reclaims this, expect fireworks.
⚠️ If these levels don’t hold, they flip to resistance. That’s how the market works—fail to bounce, and these same zones become walls for the next run-up. Stay sharp, play the levels, and let the market show its hand.
Trading Strategies Using Fibonacci Rays: Optimistic & Pessimistic Scenarios
The VSA Fibonacci Rays are already on your chart—your job is to watch for price interactions and react accordingly. These dynamic levels are based on the natural flow of price action, not rigid static points. When price meets a ray, it signals either a reversal or continuation, but only after confirmation from volume dynamics and moving averages.
🚀 Optimistic Scenario: Bulls Take Control
If Bitcoin reclaims key resistances and confirms strength via moving averages, we’re looking at a trend continuation.
Long Entry: $80,594 (current market level)
First Target: $84,686 (First resistance break confirms strength)
Second Target: $92,058 (MA200 alignment, momentum builds)
Final Target: $96,271 (Extended breakout zone)
Trigger: A clean bounce from Fibonacci Ray support with rising buy volume. Confirmation via RSI moving above 50 and MA50 flipping upward.
🔻 Pessimistic Scenario: Bears Keep the Pressure
If Bitcoin fails to hold above $76,701, we’re entering a corrective phase with further downside possible.
Short Entry: $76,700 (Break below key support)
First Target: $67,838 (Next liquidity grab zone)
Second Target: $60,295 (Stronger demand area)
Final Target: $47,122 (Capitulation scenario, extreme bear case)
Trigger: A rejection at $80,000–$81,000 on weak volume + failure to reclaim MA50 resistance. Confirmation via RSI below 40 and a bearish cross on MA100 & MA200.
🎯 Key Takeaways for Trade Execution
Always wait for price interaction with a Fibonacci Ray before entering.
Trades run from ray to ray—first target is always the next ray in the sequence.
A bounce from support rays = long setup. A failure to reclaim resistance rays = short setup.
MA50 & MA200 act as trend confirmations—price above is bullish, below is bearish.
Bottom line: The market won’t move in straight lines, but rays act as dynamic waypoints, guiding price through the chaos. Position accordingly.
Got questions? Want to discuss levels, setups, or how to use these insights in your trading? Drop your thoughts in the comments! I read everything and do my best to respond.
If this analysis was useful, hit Boost and save this post—check back later to see how price respects the mapped-out structure. Trading is all about understanding reaction points, and this roadmap lays them out for you.
I use a private indicator that automatically plots Fibonacci rays and key levels—if you’re interested in accessing it, shoot me a message.
Need a breakdown on a specific asset? I can chart it for you. Some analyses I share publicly, while others can be done privately depending on what you need. If you want a custom markup, let me know—we’ll figure out the best way to make it happen.
These rays work across all assets—crypto, forex, stocks, you name it. If there’s a ticker you want analyzed, hit Boost and comment below, and I’ll include it in my upcoming posts.
And if you haven’t yet—follow me on TradingView to stay ahead of the market. Let’s trade smart. 🚀