23/09/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $64,141.61
Last weeks low: $57,492.86
Midpoint: $60,817.24
Pattern continuation for Bitcoin from the week that came before last, steady and constant move up +11.55% from week low to high. The FOMC was the big talking point of the week, would the FED cut 25bps or 50bps, the answer was 50bps with a view to stay ahead of the curve. Making the rate of borrowing cheaper incentivises risk-on investment and so we have seen the start of that with the recent move up from the midpoint/
Having said that, typically when the week starts by swing failing the previous weeks high that often leads to a sell off week historically. This would go against the larger macro narrative that the market is turning back bullish after 6 months of chop. If anything this is the perfect test for Bitcoins resolve, if it overcomes a swing fail and continues a move up then the sentiment and macro outlook will be very positive going into Q4.
$65,000 is still major resistance and should be the bullish target to flip this week. The altcoin market is starting to wake up, should BTC accumulate around the $65,000 area I'd like to see alts/TOTAL3 playing catch-up. If BTC flips the $65,000 with strength we are off to the races.
Btc-e
BITCOIN chart update !!1D timeframe: The daily chart shows a broad downward trendline forming resistance around $64,000. There is also a projection going downwards to the $51,000-$52,000 support area, which aligns with the green trendline on the chart. This suggests that after this resistance, Bitcoin could experience a more significant correction towards lower support levels.
These are possible scenarios based on existing technical patterns. Markets can behave differently depending on macroeconomic factors and other events, so it is important to stay updated.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes and not financial advice. Always stay updated with market movements and adjust your trading strategies as needed.
BRIEFING Week #38 : Interesting Market MovesHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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BITCOIN BULLISH TO $77,000 (UPDATE)Price of BTC turning bearish. A lot of choppy price action so I'm looking for price to drop & to fill the imbalance. In the process price should still drop towards our grey, supply zone.
Once price taps in and ONLY if I see a clear 3 Sub-Wave (A,B,C) move, I will look to open buy positions.
Trump or Harris?? For BITCOIN the elections only need to happen!Simplistic title over a matter as complicated and important as the upcoming U.S. Presidential Elections this November, but completely true in terms of pragmatism.
As this straightforward 1W chart shows, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) isn't just bulletproof when it comes to the elections but in fact it gains extreme buying momentum irrespectively of the winner (Democrat or Republican).
Obama in 2012, Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020 all those elections had in common the enormous Parabolic Rally that was initiated exactly after the result. That was on all Cycles the most aggressive phase, clearly showing that investors just need the elections to be over in order to buy risky assets confidently without this macro event in the way. Usually this comes with fresh presidential assurances that the 'market remains strong and we will do everything to keep it this way' etc, so it makes sense.
What is equally interesting is that Bitcoin tends to top roughly a year after the elections:
November 06 2021 = Bitcoin topped 385 days later
November 08 2016 = Bitcoin topped 399 days later
November 03 2020 = Bitcoin topped 371 days later
This model indicates that even if we can't estimate accurately BTC's top in terms of price, we can time it. And based on the November 05 2024 elections, historically the minimum time it could time for BTC to reach a new Cycle top, would be 371 days, giving us a rough date around the week of November 10 2025!
But what do you think? Is Bitcoin about to get the boost of its life after the U.S. elections? And if yes, is it realistic to expect a top around November 2025?? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN - Price can break resistance level and continue to growHi guys, this is my overview for BTCUSDT, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some time ago price entered to triangle, where at once made downward impulse from resistance line to support line.
Price broke $63700 and $54900 levels, but soon turned around and rose higher than $54900 support level, breaking it again.
Next, BTC continued to grow and later reached resistance line of triangle, after which started to decline.
In a short time, price fell to support area, thereby exiting from triangle and starting to grow in rising channel.
In channel, Bitcoin rose to $63700 resistance level, where at the moment continues to trades very close.
Possibly, price can make a small movement below and then bounce up to $67600, breaking resistance level.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Rule of 160: History Predicts Start Of Bull-Run This Week!In this analysis I want to take a closer look at previous bull-cycles and Bitcoin's behaviour in the months following the halving.
The vertical yellow line is the date of the halving. The purple rectangle is the price action of the 160 days following the halving.
We can very clearly see a few interesting similarities between the last three cycles:
- The price pumps prior to the halving.
- The price trades sideways for 160 days after the halving.
- The "real" bull-run starts after the sideways price action has ended.
If we follow the Rule of 160, the start of the next big bull-run would be somewhere around 27 september, which is this week!
I'm aware that market conditions are different now than they were back then. Still, BTC is a very cyclical asset and has historically followed calendar based trends.
There's data to suggest that we have to come down (check my previous posts), but there's also data like this that suggests that the price will increase.
Time will tell. Interested to hear your opinions!
Quality Wave Setup
Elliott wave analysis, as a method and tool, advocates a bullish outlook as it is difficult to find a substantial bearish alternative within the 73777-49000 range.
The Triple Three correction exhibits near-ideal ratios and alternation of wave patterns within.
The Triangle in Wave can be considered either complete (minimum conditions are met) or incomplete as long as the price remains below 65000. The latter scenario would be more favorable, as it would provide an opportunity to re-enter the market for this year's final rally.
HelenP. I Bitcoin can make small move up and then rebound downHi folks today I'm prepared for you Bitcoin analytics. If we look at the chart we can see how the price a not long time ago dropped to the trend line and at once turned around and rebounded up higher than support 2, breaking it. Next, the price started to trades inside consolidation, where it some time traded near the support level and then rose to the top part of the pattern. Later, BTC rebounded from this part and declined to support 2, breaking the trend line, but soon turned around and made impulse up, thereby breaking the trend line again and exiting from consolidation. After this, the price continued to increase and soon reached support 1, which broke too and started to trades another one consolidation. Bitcoin some time traded near support 1 and then rebounded up to the top part of a consolidation, but a not long time ago it started to decline. So, in my mind, BTCUSDT will rise to the top part again and then rebound down to the support zone, thereby breaking the trend line with the support level. That's why I set my goal at 62100 points, which is located in the support zone. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) on daily chart - technical analysis+price preTechnical analysis Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) on daily chart by Blaž Fabjan
Price Range: The chart shows a long-term descending channel with resistance at the upper trendline and support at the lower trendline. The price is oscillating between these two levels.
Current Price: $63,532.74 as of the timestamp on the chart.
Support and Resistance:
Resistance is marked around $68,000 to $70,000.
Support is marked around $55,000.
Indicators Used:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently around 63.05, showing slight bullish momentum but nearing overbought conditions.
Stochastic Oscillator: It shows an overbought condition with values above 80, indicating the potential for a pullback.
VMC Cipher_B_Divergences: This is a volume momentum indicator, showing possible divergence signals, with some indications of bullish divergence.
Patterns and Predictions
Channel Pattern: The price has been respecting the descending channel with a number of touches on both resistance and support lines. Currently, the price is near the midline of this channel.
Potential Move:
In the short term, the price could follow the channel’s structure and retest the support around $60,000 or even $55,000.
After touching support, a potential bounce is expected, which could lead the price to test the upper resistance of the channel at $68,000–$70,000.
Trading Plan
Short-term Bearish Scenario:
Entry: Consider entering short positions if the price fails to break the mid-channel line (around $64,000) and shows signs of reversal, with targets around the $55,000 support.
Stop-loss: Set a stop-loss just above the resistance line at $68,000.
Take-profit: Look to take profits around $60,000–$55,000, depending on risk appetite.
Long-term Bullish Scenario:
Entry: If the price successfully tests support ($55,000) and shows bullish reversal signals, consider entering long positions.
Stop-loss: Place a stop-loss slightly below the support zone ($52,000).
Take-profit: Initial target could be the upper boundary of the channel at $68,000, with an extended target beyond $75,000 if the price breaks out from the descending channel.
Breakout Scenario:
A breakout above the $70,000 resistance with strong volume could indicate the start of a bullish trend reversal.
Entry: Consider entering a long trade on the breakout above $70,000.
Take-profit: Target $75,000 to $80,000.
Risk Management:
Given the overbought conditions on the stochastic indicator, caution should be taken with long positions unless a strong confirmation of support bounce occurs.
Monitor volume and divergence signals from the VMC Cipher_B_Divergences indicator for additional confirmation.
This analysis assumes a near-term continuation of the channel pattern, with a possible bullish breakout in the longer term if price action shows strength at key levels.
Bitcoin BTC price trading plan to the end of 2024Last week was full of macroeconomic events, we write about it at previous idea
The cryptocurrency market took them positively and grew on rumors.
There is a legendary quote: “Buy on rumors, sell on facts.”
Therefore, we do not rule out that this week OKX:BTCUSDT and the crypto market in general may plunge into correction.
Still, we need BTC.D - 57.7% and USDT.D - 5.50% to fall significantly lower for the market to really “come to life”
Fear and Greed Index (neutral) - 50
As long as CRYPTOCAP:BTC price is above $57,000 , it is globally in an upward trend and at the same time in a protracted consolidation since May 2024.
Perhaps a confident exit from this consolidation will take place in November, after the US elections on 05.11 and the next Fed rate cut on 07.11
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#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Day and I hope you are well.
bitcoin
Quote from last week:
comment: Doing the weekly chart this week. Clear contraction visible and there is no magic to see here. I won’t make up stuff where there is none. Market is clearly confused where it wants to go and no side has an advantage. The triangle will break out soon again and I can only see btc falling below 49000 if the broader markets weaken considerably.
comment : Bulls still not managed to get above 65000 and unless that changes, we are in an ascending triangle now. Trading range, ascending triangle, it does not matter, you trade them the same. Clear support and resistance, buy low and sell high until it stops working. I favor the bears to touch the lower trend line around the daily ema but as of now they are not doing enough and market has formed 4 consecutive doji’s. You don’t have to trade this. Wait for a better pattern.
current market cycle: trading range / ascending triangle
key levels: 49000 - 65000
bull case: Bulls need prices above 64500. That has not changed since last week. If they fail again, market will likely test down below 55000 again. If they could get it, market is free to trade above 68000 to test the bear trend line from the ath.
Invalidation is below 62400.
bear case: Bears want a pullback to test the lower bull channel trend line and daily ema around 61000 where I expect more buyers than sellers to appear. Market then probably has to move more sideways before we can get a breakout below the bull channel. This is a clear trading range for 2 months and odds favor the bears to stay below 65000 and get a pullback. Don’t over analyze 4 consecutive doji’s. Look at a higher time frame and get a sense of what the market is trying to do. Right now it’s trying higher again but failing. It can only go on for so long until one side give’s up.
Invalidation is above 64500.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral. Under 60000 I slightly favor the bears to trade down to 55000 but need to see better selling than on Saturday/Sunday.
→ Last Sunday we traded around 59800 and now we are at 63400. Meh outlook. I changed it on Monday since bulls printed a strong bull bar above the pullback.
short term: Neutral. I become a bear once bears print below 62400. Max bullish above 65000 with follow through.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08: If bears can close the bull gap for good, we could see 40000 this year. If not, more likely we will see 65000+ again. Right now we are in a 2 month trading range.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added the bull channel, wave count and possible two legged correction.
BTC ON THE BULLISH RUNPotential Trade Setup on BTCUSD
Check this potential trade setup on BTCUSD
Bitcoin just broke above the bullish triangle pattern at the top, and this could lead to a more bullish move.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Trade Responsibly!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Hellena | BITCOIN (4H): Long to resistance area 64879.Dear colleagues, after analyzing bitcoin I came to the conclusion that the price is in an upward impulse, but the correction “2” is not yet completed or almost completed.
I believe that after reaching the area of 56398 the price will again rush in an upward movement with the goal of reaching the area of 64879 in wave “3”.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Bitcoin's Technical Outlook Improves: Key Levels to WatchCurrent Market Situation:
Bitcoin is showing an improving technical outlook, with solid support in the $50,000-$55,000 range.
Staying above this zone enhances the risk-reward ratio for bullish positions.
Key Resistance:
The $60,000-$62,000 range acts as crucial resistance. A breakout here could trigger a swift move to $70,000-$72,000, opening up potential for further gains.
Market Influence:
Often called the "Dow of Cryptos," Bitcoin's movements significantly impact the broader market.
Its extended range within a descending price channel suggests that a major price movement may be on the horizon.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #MarketUpdate #CryptoResistance
BTC/USDT 1hour chart update !!The Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) chart shows price movement within an ascending channel, with the price currently facing resistance near the $64,000 level, as marked by the blue area. The following key details can be observed: Channel Pattern: The price is moving in an upward sloping channel, indicating bullish momentum. However, the price has recently touched the upper boundary and is now facing a pullback.
The blue area around $63,900 to $64,000 is acting as a strong resistance level. The price has touched this area several times but has failed to break it.
An arrow indicates a possible bearish move, suggesting that the price may retrace towards the lower trendline of the channel, around $61,000-$62,000. This would be a common behavior of price consolidation before retesting or breaking the resistance.
A green curve shows a projected bullish reversal near $60,000, which aligns with the lower trendline support. This could provide a buying opportunity if the price tests this level. Summary: BTC is at a crucial point, facing strong resistance at $64,000. Rejection here could lead to a return towards the $60,000-$62,000 range. A bounce off the support could resume the bullish trend, but a break below would signal potential further declines.
If you want more details or have specific questions about further updates, feel free to ask
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes and not financial advice. Always stay updated with market movements and adjust your trading strategies as needed.
Bearish reversal?BTC/USD is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support level which has been identified as a pullback support.
Pivot: 64,339.81
1st Support: 61,171.93
1st Resistance: 66,671.38
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
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BTC Bitcoin Technical Analysis and Trade Idea👀 👉 BTC has recently broken market structure to the upside, signalling a potential bullish opportunity. The breakout is evident on both the daily and 4-hour charts, suggesting a buying setup could be forming. In this video, we’ll analyse market structure, price action, and focus on the prevailing trend. We’ll also highlight a potential trade setup, contingent on the price action aligning with our outlined scenario.
**Disclaimer:** This content is for educational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. 📊✅
USDCHF 3RR | 15m TF Bullish SetupICMARKETS:USDCHF when BINANCE:BTCUSD falls down USDCHF goes up and vice versa, we can expect btc to dip in the short moment today as it is monday and there is always a high probability that btc takes a dip on monday, do refer to my previous posts on btc analysis as well. Anyhow, a good time to enter USDCHF.
ETH BUY NOW!ETH/USDT Analysis: 4-Hour Timeframe 📊
The chart presents Ethereum’s performance against USDT on a 4-hour timeframe, highlighting key upcoming dates for potential market movements based on predictive indicators.
🟢 BUY NOW
🔴 September 25, 2024 - Sell Date (Red Line):
This date suggests a potential local top for Ethereum, indicating an opportunity to take profits or close long positions as the price could potentially reverse downward after this point.
🟢 September 30, 2024 - Buy Date (Green Line):
This date forecasts a potential local bottom for Ethereum, signaling an ideal time to accumulate ETH or enter long positions before a potential upward price movement.
🟢 October 4, 2024 - Buy Date (Green Line):
This date predicts another local bottom, offering another buying opportunity as ETH’s price could rise after this period.
🕒 Note: All times are based on Los Angeles time (UTC -7). Please allow for a potential margin of error of 1-2 candles for each prediction. Be sure to cross-reference with additional indicators and market context before making trading decisions.
Bitcoin Needs Correction==>>Filling CME GapsBitcoin started pumping after the announcement of the US Federal Funds Rate ( The Federal Reserve lowered the US Federal Funds Rate by 0.5% to 5.00%. ).
Considering that lowering Funds Rate is potentially good for the cryptocurrency market, lowering Funds Rate while the US government continues to print and spend money is a big mistake. I predict that investors may prefer bonds to riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies as interest rates fall.
Bitcoin is currently moving in the Resistance zone($63,500-$61,460) , Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , near the 21_SMA(Weekly) and 200_SMA(Daily) , Yearly Resistance(3) and upper lines of the Ascending Channel .
According to the theory of Elliott waves , Bitcoin seems to have succeeded in completing the Zigzag correction(ABC/5-3-5) .
Also, Regular Divergence (RD-) between Consecutive Peaks .
Before drawing a better conclusion, let's take a look at the USDT.D% and BTC.D% charts.
USDT.D% is moving near the Support zone , the lower line of the Descending Channel and the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . I expect USDT.D% to rise at least to the Resistance zone again, bringing down the Bitcoin price .👇
BTC.D% is moving in a Heavy Resistance zone. According to Elliott's wave theory , BTC.D% seems to be completing the main wave 5 with the Ending Diagonal . I expect BTC.D% to start its downward trend soon, which could cause Bitcoin to fall more than other tokens .👇
Based on the above explanation, I expect Bitcoin to at least drop to the Support zone($60,000-$59,100) and Support lines and fill the CME Gaps .
Note: If Bitcoin can break the Resistance zone($63,500-$61,460), we should expect Bitcoin to rise to at least $65,000.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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Bitcoin Pin Ball Back To 60K?Bitcoin rallied off the mid 50Ks as per my illustration in my previous article and has tested the 64K resistance area. Reacting to levels within a range is typical and in these cases it is important to pay close attention to the short term price structure and relative support/resistance levels. While NOTHING works 100% of the time, this technique is how I am able to ANTICIPATE price movements consistently. Until the short term structure changes, I am looking for a brief retrace back to 60K followed by a reversal to a higher high. This is this expectations UNTIL the market proves otherwise by changing its structure.
For conservative swing traders this means WAITING for the retrace to place out and for an attractive support to be tested around 60K (see arrow). This level has been notable as a support and resistance for months and is likely to play a key role going forward. IF price can retest this level this week, I will be looking for CONFIRMATION in order to justify risk. This can come in the form of an inside bar or pin bar on this particular time frame.
For smaller time frames, it is possible to find lower risk entries that still have similar profit potential. To attempt to synchronize with the larger time frame and effectively mange such signals is the whole purpose of my script (Trade Scanner Pro) but it does require some experience. Either way your goal as a trader should be to be able to make effective choices with the least amount of information (and confusion) as possible.
If 60K is never tested (anything is possible), then the strength implied by such a scenario can carry price into the 66K area or higher and it can happen fast. The best way to capitalize on this is utilizing smaller time frames like 30 min or lower (day trades). Certainly not an area for beginners unless you trade on paper for learning purposes. It only looks EASY when it is a win AFTER THE FACT.
IF 60K is compromised completely, that would cancel out the bullish scenario previously mentioned. You have to be prepared for both bullish and bearish outcome because getting married to a forecast is not optimal in an environment that is MOSTLY random. Focusing on RISK and adjusting to new information (changing levels/price action) is key. If you are having a hard time in this environment, stop and question the sources of information you are consuming. The error usually begins there.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.