02/06/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $110,718.68
Last weeks low: $103,065.74
Midpoint: $106,892.21
As we approach the middle of the year, Bitcoin is back above $100,000 despite pulling back from a new ATH of $112,000. In the month of MAY BlackRocks ETF had record inflows of over $6B propelling prices 11% higher.
Last week we saw as the month closed and with that it's natural to have a window dressing period that usually leads to de-risking slightly. BTC stayed within the previous weeks range and maintains the pattern of:
Chop/consolidation --> expansion to the upside --> chop/consolidation...
However in this case the consolidation week had a much larger range than in the past which is a sign to me that the rally is exhausted for now. It's because of this I feel we may see a weekly low break for the first time in a month and get a more meaningful pullback than we've seen since early April. My target would be around the $97,000 area.
The case for the bulls is still a convincing one despite some red flags. Record ETF inflows continue to pour, M2 money supply continues to grow and a general shift to risk-on assets is clear. However these are longer term factors and just for this weeks outlook the momentum is with the bears briefly.
Btc-e
BTC (Post Weekly Close Update)CRYPTOCAP:BTC (Post Weekly Close Update)
We’ve confirmed a weekly SFP and observed a bearish engulfing weekly close, signaling caution at the very least. Whether the price corrects to our target, BOs here, or reaches a new ATH remains uncertain, so we’ll play it level by level. Imo, subtle signs of bullish exhaustion are worth noting.
That said, I don’t expect a collapse to 70K, though anything is possible. I anticipate a drop below the key 100K level, targeting the 18H HOB and weekly FVG around 98K. We could even see a wick into the CME gap, YO, and VRVP support observed at 94K. This move may spark fear, traders anticipating lower, with some calling for a bear market. However, I expect the price to reverse, reclaim key levels, and resume the uptrend.
On LTF/MTF - charts, we’re trading level by level. A range may form, allowing the market to gather liquidity to sustain the trend, especially since we missed liquidity at 72K. As long as the price remains below 107K, scalping makes more sense than swing trading in the short term. A break above 107K could target 110K or a new ATH. However, if the price reaches 107K - around 107800 - I’d consider shorting. A daily close above 107K might trap retail traders into opening longs, only for the price to retrace and head lower (keep this scenario in mind).
VELO data:
Market dynamics are stable. Spot is flat or selling, while perps are driving pric. OI has dropped from dangerous levels, and funding rates remain slightly positive. Overall, nothing significant is occurring, which aligns with the current range-bound market.
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin reach $120,000?!Bitcoin is in its short-term descending channel on the four-hour timeframe, between the EMA50 and EMA200. Personally, I would look to sell Bitcoin at a target of $100,000. Either from the channel ceiling or after an invalid breakout of the specified channel. If this corrective move occurs, Bitcoin buying opportunities can be sought within the demand zone.
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market, and capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand range.
The Bitcoin 2025 Conference, widely regarded as the largest global event dedicated to Bitcoin and blockchain technology, took place from May 27 to 29 at the Venetian Convention Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. First launched in 2019 and held annually since, the conference has become the central meeting point for Bitcoin enthusiasts and professionals, offering a platform for knowledge exchange, ideation, and innovation within the Bitcoin ecosystem. With over 30,000 attendees, 400 speakers, and participation from around 5,000 companies, this year’s event played a significant role in advancing the global adoption of Bitcoin—often referred to as “hyperbitcoinization.”
The 2025 edition covered not only technical subjects such as Layer 2 scaling solutions and privacy enhancements, but also broader themes like institutional adoption, strategic Bitcoin reserves, and its implications for financial freedom on a global scale.From an economic perspective, there was a strong emphasis on Bitcoin’s role as a store of value amid inflationary pressures and unstable monetary policies. Forecasts presented by key figures such as Michael Saylor and Paolo Ardoino pointed to Bitcoin’s potential to emerge as a foundational asset within global financial systems. These projections were further supported by the expansion of the M2 money supply in 2024 and expectations for continued growth into 2025.
In addition to highlighting opportunities, the event also addressed the challenges facing Bitcoin. One major concern was the lack of clear legal and regulatory frameworks in certain countries—a topic addressed by Caitlin Long and other speakers. Such regulatory uncertainty could hinder broader Bitcoin adoption. Moreover, Bitcoin’s price volatility—highlighted by a 3.4% decline in the weeks leading up to the conference—raised questions about the market’s long-term stability.
Meanwhile, Coinbase reported that the repayment of debts related to the bankrupt FTX exchange could act as a $5 billion liquidity injection into the crypto market. This development is expected to boost capital inflows and potentially draw major institutional players back into the space.
According to Coinbase, as of May 30, the “FTX Recovery Trust” has begun its second phase of repayments, distributing over $5 billion in stablecoins to creditors. These payouts are being processed over three days via the BitGo and Kraken platforms. Unlike the first round in February, this phase involves only stablecoin disbursements rather than a mix of crypto and cash—enabling recipients to reinvest their funds more quickly and efficiently.
Additionally, U.S.-based companies currently hold 94.8% of all Bitcoin owned by publicly traded firms. The U.S. also commands 36% of the global Bitcoin hash rate, underscoring its dominance in mining activities. So far, 36 U.S. states have enacted pro-Bitcoin legislation, signaling a growing legal endorsement of the cryptocurrency across the country. This level of concentration—in ownership, regulatory leadership, and mining capacity—could position the U.S. to play a more decisive role in shaping future global Bitcoin regulations.
BITCOIN Can the 4H MA200 hold and kickstart the next rally? Bitcoin (BTCUSD) almost hit on Saturday its 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been holding since April 16, and immediately rebounded. So far the bullish reaction is moderate as the price action is still being restricted below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which is now acting as the short-term Resistance.
The blue Arc pattern that BTC has formed in the past 3 weeks, resembles the last two peak formations and pull-backs since the early April bottom. On top of all this, the 4H RSI got oversold (30.00) actually for the first time since the April 07 bottom.
With the weakest rally of this long-term Bullish Leg being +16.06%, if the 4H MA200 holds and a 4H MA50 break-out confirms it, we can expect a minimum short-term rise of almost $120k (+16.06%).
Do you think that's what's coming next? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Daily Technical Overview (BTC/USD)Currently, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading around $104,800. Up slightly but still digesting a sharp reversal that rattled short-term bulls.
Recent Price Action: Rejection From $112K
Back on 22nd May, Bitcoin surged to a new high near $112,000, fueled by bullish momentum, institutional flows, and strong on-chain accumulation. However, that breakout was swiftly rejected, and BTC fell as low as $103,400.
This kind of "bull trap" reversal highlights a few key dynamics:
1) Overextended sentiment: The rally above $110K was not supported by volume or follow-through, suggesting exhaustion.
2) Profit-taking by large holders or institutions likely triggered a cascade of stop-losses, accelerating the decline.
3) Liquidation clusters in leveraged long positions likely exacerbated the drop.
Bitcoin is now attempting to reclaim stability around the $104K–$105K range.
🔍 Technical Snapshot
- Support Zones at $103,000 and $93,200
- Resistance Levels at $112,000 (ATH)
Price is still above the 50 & 200-day SMAs, which could be a bullish longer-term signal.
In addition, the price remains above the upper band of the cloud, but momentum is stalling. A decisive bounce off the cloud could reignite bullish sentiment. Or falling into the cloud could trigger more uncertainty and downside.
Macro tailwinds: Concerns over U.S. fiscal stability and potential Fed rate cuts could keep Bitcoin attractive as a non-sovereign asset.
📈 Projection Scenarios
Bullish Case:
If BTC consolidates above $107K, we could see another attempt and retest of $112K.
Bearish Case:
Failure to hold above $103K could see Bitcoin revisit $100K, and if that breaks, downside opens toward the $93K level.
🧭 Insight & Takeaway
The current reversal serves as a healthy reminder that no trend goes up in a straight line. Especially not in crypto.
It likely shook out overleveraged longs, reset sentiment, and may give the market room to breathe before the next leg up.
The long-term trend remains intact, but expect more volatility before any clean break to new highs.
Always DYOR and DYODD and manage your risk.
$ETH Analysis — Correction Incoming?Summary:
After a strong ~100% rally in ETH, price hit a major resistance zone near $2734.78, triggering a significant sell-off, likely driven by algorithmic profit-taking. Now, the market is poised for a healthy correction before another potential leg up.
📉 What's Next for Ethereum?
🔍 Expecting a Correction of 7% to 25%
Based on technical structure and indicator behavior, ETH is likely to retrace to one of the two key zones:
✅ Primary Buy Zone ("Most Likely"): $2297.20
This zone aligns with previous structure support.
It’s where the price may form a higher low and resume its upward trend.
Ideal for opening a swing long with a tight risk-reward ratio.
🔥 Deeper Correction Opportunity: $1779.58
While less likely, a drop to this level would be a major long opportunity.
Aligns with historical demand and long-term support levels.
Also intersects with the yellow trendlines suggesting trend-based support zones.
📊 Why This Correction Makes Sense:
Weekly Money Flow Index (MFI) is Dropping:
MFI divergence suggests money is flowing out, weakening bullish momentum.
A trigger wave is forming, often preceding price corrections.
Algo Profit-Taking is Done:
Smart money likely exited around $2734.78 (highlighted in chart).
They’ll need to accumulate again at lower levels before the next rally.
📈 Potential Upside Targets:
If ETH respects the structure and finds support around $2297 or deeper, we could see a rally toward $3296.85 — a key Fibonacci extension and psychological level.
🧘♂️ Reminder:
No emotional entries. Let the price come to you. Trust the setup and stick to your plan.
📌 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Just a breakdown of my trading thesis. Always manage your risk.
98-101KMorning folks,
Last time BTC was not able to provide the direction as it was standing in triangle and we prepared "neutral" update, waiting for triangle breakout.
Now we see that this has happened to the downside and market just stands slightly above XOP target. So we consider 98-101K area as the nearest target.
Second, once (and if) this action will be over - take look at H&S, and it could trigger stronger downside retracement. This it turn might be quite welcome for weekly reverse H&S pattern .
That's being said, the first step that we're watching - is down to the potential neckline around 98-101K. Then we decided for to do next.
XAUUSD BULLISH OR BEARISH ------ DETAILED ANALYSISXAUUSD is currently forming a classic bullish flag pattern on the 12-hour timeframe after a strong impulsive rally from the 3145 demand zone. The consolidation is tight and orderly, holding above the key structure zone and forming lower highs and lower lows within the flag. This setup indicates a continuation pattern, and with price stabilizing around 3315, a breakout to the upside is increasingly likely. A clean breakout from the flag will likely ignite the next bullish wave toward the 3500 level.
From a fundamental perspective, gold remains supported amid renewed market concerns around inflation persistence and global macro uncertainty. The latest US economic data, including slower job growth and declining consumer sentiment, is increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve might be nearing the end of its tightening cycle. This is weakening the US dollar and boosting safe-haven demand for gold. Additionally, central banks, particularly from China and emerging markets, continue to increase gold reserves—adding to long-term bullish sentiment.
Technically, XAUUSD has already respected a strong demand zone around 3145 multiple times, which reinforces that institutional buyers are defending this area. The market structure remains bullish, and higher lows continue to form, aligning with a potential trend continuation. If price breaks above the flag resistance around 3325–3330 with volume confirmation, the bullish target of 3500 could be reached swiftly.
As long as gold holds above the 3270–3280 support zone, the risk-reward setup remains favorable for long positions. With a confluence of strong fundamentals and a high-probability technical pattern, XAUUSD is setting up for a potential breakout rally. Traders should watch closely for breakout confirmation to ride the momentum toward new highs in this evolving bullish trend.
Correlation between USDT.D and BTC.D
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If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
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(USDT.D 1M chart)
If USDT dominance is maintained below 4.97 or continues to decline, the coin market is likely to be on the rise.
The maximum decline is expected to be around 2.84-3.42.
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(BTC.D 1M chart)
However, in order for the altcoin bull market to begin, BTC dominance is expected to fall below 55.01 and remain there or show a downward trend.
Therefore, we need to see if it falls below the 55.01-62.47 range.
The maximum rise range is expected to be around 73.63-77.07.
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In summary of the above, since funds are currently concentrated in BTC, it is likely that BTC will show an upward trend, and altcoins are likely to show a sideways or downward trend as they fail to follow the rise of BTC.
The major bear market in the coin market is expected to begin in 2026.
For the basis, please refer to the explanation of the big picture below.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful transaction.
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- This is an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
I will explain more details when the bear market starts.
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LRC, LOOPRING, HOW MANY LOOPRINGS DO YOU THINK SONIC COULD EAT?Something is going on with this coin on the technical side.
There is literally no downside target that I can see right now, so I just labeled in MASSIVE SUPPORT TREND.
It looks like it is really close to making a move to the upside.
Somewhere around .8
Then it will likely hit some resistance there, but has a lot of potential to keep building support and climbing.
This coin looks incredibly bullish right now.
Things can change fast and if they do it will likely be a break of this trend (green).
The run up can take it to .45 and maybe a little higher, but the buy the dip price looks to be around .245. which would then take price higher to over 1 and beyond.
I'm gonna go with 3684 looprings for sonic.
What even is a loopring?
I'll attach more crypto TA to this idea.
oh and don't follow the guideline, pay more attention to the trends and price zones.
BTC - Block Out The NoiseThere is a lot of talk going on surrounding all the markets and eveb BTC, of course.
I saw a tweet come across my feed that had a user claiming an incoming crash of BTC and I couldn't help myself in laughing a bit for seeing through and identifying that he really had no idea wtf is going on.
We are currently set to close the week above the consolidation box that BTC has produced and punched over. We are holding above the top of the box at about $104,450 for the third consecutive week. If we really were to crash or retest levels below, we'd first have to have a weekly candle close under $104,450 and then we could see cost basis, or the median, of the consolidation box retested at about $$99,000.
Long story short, because we are holding above the top of the box, I think we'll be more likely to continue consolidating on a lower time frame and trying to continue breaking new highs.
Most people have no idea what's going on and are just guessing. I am no different in that respect. I do use the potterbox strategy to help me sift through the noise and ultimately make sense of what price is doing relative to the structures it has created before. Per the PBS, we're okay and on a lower 24HR timeframe, we've actually done a great job in bouncing. For now, I don't see a meltdown coming. We simply retested a level and created empty space above us on a 24HR timeframe to, hopefully go back up. I'm hoping we see $120K this year and, maybe, with enough momentum we could really see a rally big enough to break this channel we are in.
Bearish reversal?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 107,412.53
1st Support: 102,164.07
1st Resistance: 111,566.95
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BRIEFING Week #22 : Still waiting for OilHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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$BTC 12-Week Lead Correlation w/ Global Liquidity, M2, GOLD, DXYHere’s a look at Bitcoin's price action against Global Liquidity, Global M2, GOLD and DXY - all with a 12-Week Lead.
Notice GOLD has a bit more of a deviation from the BTC price than the others.
This is because GOLD is used as a store of value asset, whereas the others are predicated on Central Banks expanding and contracting their money supply and balance sheets.
The key here is to smooth out the signal and ignore the noise.
Notice the convergence between these metrics the past couple months.
Bitcoin: Bear Flag Formation Implies Weakness.Bitcoin has retraced as anticipated in my previous article (see Wave 5). So much for all the nonsense hype at the Bitcoin conference. Bitcoin has tested the 103K area and found some support but is developing a mini bear flag (see arrow). IF the 103,500K level is broken, that confirms the corrective structure is still in play and a test of 102 to 100K can still be the dominant scenario for the coming week (NFP this week). This means for swing traders on this time frame, it is likely too early for longs.
The 102 to 100K area is still the major support that I anticipate. A long signal here can look like a pin bar on this time frame, or a double bottom formation on a 4h or 1h chart. It often pays to wait for these scenarios but there is always a risk of missing the move if price confirms a reversal pattern sooner.
IF the current candle closes much higher (above 106K) then it will invalidate the bear flag. This means the bullish continuation would be in play. In my opinion this is a lower probability, but you have to be open to it. In the bullish scenario a test of 110 to 112 servers as a profit objective. While a breakout beyond 112 can happen, the more you expect, the more RISK you must be exposed to. A test of high is more probable than a new high. Along with that, I suspect current price action is more likely to consolidate rather than continue high over the short term because 5 waves are clearly in place. That usually means a corrective structure is likely to follow, and that is what we are currently in.
The bullish candles are too early to buy into. If the bear flag plays out, there will be more attractive prices to wait for reversal formations. Otherwise, work smaller time frames, look for small bites going either way and keep the size small. This is not an easy environment.
CADJPY BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISCADJPY has successfully broken out of a well-defined falling wedge pattern, confirming a bullish reversal setup on the daily timeframe. Price action has not only cleared the descending trendline but has also completed a clean retest of the breakout zone near 104.000–104.500. This retest held firmly, showing strong buyer interest, and the pair is now poised for a continuation toward the next key resistance level around 110.000. The technical structure is now favoring bulls, with momentum shifting upward after a prolonged corrective phase.
Fundamentally, the Canadian dollar is gaining strength supported by rising crude oil prices and stronger-than-expected economic data from Canada. The Bank of Canada’s recent tone remains relatively hawkish compared to other central banks, which adds further support to CAD. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen continues to remain under pressure due to the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy stance. With Japan’s inflation struggling to sustain above target, the BOJ is showing no urgency to tighten, which keeps JPY weak against higher-yielding currencies like CAD.
The breakout from the falling wedge is also being supported by volume and bullish daily candles, suggesting a solid shift in market sentiment. The pair has formed a higher low and higher high, officially transitioning into a bullish structure. With the retest of the breakout structure now complete, there’s a high probability for continuation toward 108.000 initially and a full extension to 110.000 in the coming weeks.
Traders should closely monitor any dips as potential buying opportunities as long as CADJPY holds above 103.500–104.000 support. The reward-to-risk ratio remains favorable for swing traders aiming for medium-term targets. With strong technical confirmation, supportive fundamentals, and risk appetite returning to markets, CADJPY is setting up for a potentially profitable bullish wave.
BTC eliot wave prediction
106,600$ → 100,300$ → 116,000$
The third extended wave of Bitcoin has completed, and it is now going through a correction phase.
Wave 4 corrections often retrace to the 0.382 Fibonacci level.
Therefore, a price drop to that level is expected — around $106,600.
This correction is unfolding as a W–X–Y pattern.
In wave W, the internal ABC subwaves completed with wave C reaching 1.618 times the length of wave A.
Currently, Bitcoin is in the rising phase of wave X.
No one knows how high wave X will go,
but what’s important is that after wave X finishes,
one more lower low is expected — again around $106,600.
At that price level, I plan to open a $2 billion long position with 10x leverage.
Bitcoin Wasn't Built for Bull Runs — It Was Built for This MomenDear traders,
You may be witnessing a “first” — a pivotal moment right before things begin to spiral.
We’re not fortune tellers. We don’t claim to predict the future.
But what you’re about to read is based entirely on **publicly available data**, interpreted not through speculation, but through a deep, rational analysis of interconnected facts — the kind of connections that most overlook, and few dare to question.
We may not know how the future is being orchestrated behind the scenes...
But one thing seems certain: **crisis always comes first...** and *then* we are given a **narrative** to justify it — be it war, a pandemic, or a "global emergency."
This is the correct sequence... and it’s the one they never teach you.
Yet for those of us who navigate the financial markets, one question matters more than all others:
**How do we profit from this?**
---
We recently shared an important setup on the **Nasdaq index**, the benchmark that reflects — to a large extent — the true state of the U.S. economy.
As a proxy for the 100 largest American corporations, the Nasdaq plays a critical role in signaling macro trends.
And while some are just now waking up to the storm ahead, **our outlook has been clear since October 2022**:
A major economic crisis was not only probable… it was **inevitable**.
Some analysts chalk this up to uncontrolled money printing post-2019 as governments tried to patch the damage from the COVID-19 crisis. That’s one explanation.
But at **Glich**, our vision is different.
More complex.
And for now… **not something we can fully release**.
---
For years, strong correlations between **risk markets** — especially U.S. equities and crypto — held firmly in place.
But something changed on **May 30th, 2025**. Completely and unmistakably.
The link was severed.
Now ask yourself:
**Why was Bitcoin created in the first place?**
It wasn’t just digital money.
It was a bold, revolutionary idea. A system designed for a future economy no longer shackled by inflation, central banking failures, or hidden agendas.
A fluid, transparent, and secure network for a world in desperate need of change.
The current financial model is obsolete. It’s no longer evolving — just surviving.
And it can no longer answer the challenges of what's to come.
**2008 was not the collapse; it was the setup.** A convenient pretext to slowly roll out something **new**.
And "Satoshi Nakamoto"? Well, let’s just say...
**That name means more than you think.**
_"HIDDEN INFORMATION"_ 👁️
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What does NEO mean when he says:
> "This has all happened before… yet it’s happening for the first time"?
And what does that have to do with us?
This analysis is *not* just about charts or setups.
It’s a **hidden message** — a spotlight on a once-in-a-generation opportunity lying in plain sight.
But not everyone is trained to read between the lines.
---
Let us ask:
- Why was **Donald Trump** specifically pushed into position?
- Why is crypto — after being suppressed, banned and attacked worldwide — now being quietly **promoted** and fast-tracked in legislation during 2024 and 2025?
Something’s moving beneath the surface.
---
### 🔍 In summary:
- Expect a tidal wave of **global crypto legislation** to pass in the coming **days/weeks/months**.
- Crypto — particularly **BTC and ETH** — will become silent **stores of value** during the economic storm.
- Expect record-breaking levels: **$400K for Bitcoin**, **$40K for Ethereum**.
Yes, this may sound like science fiction…
But keep your eyes and ears wide open. 👁️
- And brace yourself for a **historic collapse** in U.S. equities. Possibly… something we’ve never seen before.
---
The show is starting.
And we won’t spoil the ending — because watching it unfold is part of the experience.
But here’s what we *can* say, thanks to our proprietary **algorithmic system**:
- The **U.S. economy will bleed**.
- And crypto will blow past expectations — fulfilling the very purpose it was built for.
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🛒 Load your bags in the coming days...
Because when this train leaves the station —
It won't be stopping for anyone.
Bitcoin Wyckoff Distribution Complete – Markdown Phase Ahead?This chart is a technical analysis of **Bitcoin (BTC/USD)** on the **4-hour timeframe** from Binance, illustrating **Wyckoff Market Cycle Phases** applied to recent price action.
### 🧠 Chart Description:
The chart identifies and labels key **Wyckoff phases**:
* **Accumulation (April)**: Price consolidates in a range after a downtrend. This phase marks strong hands accumulating Bitcoin from weak hands.
* **Reaccumulation (late April to early May)**: A bullish continuation pattern where the price pauses temporarily before resuming the uptrend.
* **Distribution (mid-May)**: The price enters another consolidation phase, but this time smart money begins offloading holdings at elevated prices to retail traders.
### 📉 Projected Move:
* A breakdown below the current support is anticipated, leading to a **markdown phase**.
* The red path suggests a significant decline, potentially toward the **\$85,000–\$90,000 range**, indicating bearish momentum.
* After the markdown, **accumulation is expected to resume**, setting the stage for the next potential markup.
### 📊 Supporting Visual:
On the right side, there's a reference schematic titled **“Market Phases” by Readtheticker.com**, which summarizes:
* Accumulation → Markup → Distribution → Markdown → Accumulation cycle.
* It also highlights buying/selling pressure dynamics and behavioral patterns at each phase.
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