CYCLE 4 | Pull back complete!Hi team,
The purpose of this post is to close out our thoughts posted back in December 2024 with the suggestion of a possible 30-40% correction scenario we envisioned BTC might look to complete over the upcoming months, and what we wanted to see the bulls achieve in order for Cycle 4 to move into its final phase. Using this set up we can look towards where BTC may look towards from here.
These steps were outlined in the below two posts:
CYCLE 4 | CME GAP: Bull Cycle Period First Major Pull Back (Dec 20 - 2024)
CYCLE 4 | UPDATE - BTC Possible Next Move into Sell Zone (Feb 14 - 2025)
REVIEWING WHAT HAPPENED
In these posts we suggested
1) BTC will likely pull back and look for opportunities for support
2) We outlined the following levels
* Demand Zone and bottom of our defined Price Channel (92-90K)
* Daily Order Block (OB) (88.5-87.9k)
* CME GAP - down as far as ~77K and suggested a wick on the weekly down to our March 2024 high would not be out of the question
These levels all were taken out with our worst-case forecast achieved. Bulls then successfully preceded to complete the requirements we set out in these posts:
1) Uptrend Channel: No Open / Close weekly candle outside of, push back within and HOLD as support / HOLD and remain inside of our cycle uptrend channel (keep BTCs relationship with this trend line intact).
2) Daily OB: Flip and hold as support (BTC first attempt was rejected, held as resistance and allow a more bullish double bottom to be formed).
3) 20W SMA / 21W EMA: Flip and hold these moving averages
4) Price Channel: Push back inside and hold with a least two weekly candle closes.
WHERE TO FROM HERE
We are now at this point where BTC is now poised to look at a new ATH. BULLs are looking for BTC to finish off this cycle, and the set up aligns perfectly with our 'Sell Zone' box time frame we have put in place to help us navigate this cycle. Our 'MA OSCILLATOR RISK METRIC' (see charts in below posts for updates) has swung back into our RL level of 7 and moving back towards out cycle peak risk levels.
To achieve a 'proper' finishing ATH bulls are looking for in this zone we would want to see BTC start to making aggressive moves from here in Q3 & Q4 of 2025.
The biggest concerns for BULLs and the upcoming case for bears is the weekly bearish divergences BTC has put in place with our prior ATHs this cycle. This is most notable in the RSI shown in this posts original chart. From here there are 3 likely scenarios BTC could take based on rejects of our RSI dark black tend line and in place weekly bearish divergences. These Scenarios are marked 1, 2 and 3.
Scenario 1
BTC moves aggressively out of this price channel to new ATHs. There is a chance Bears could push price into a lower high here or put in a 'SFP' (Swing Failure Pattern) and sweep our prior high.
Scenario 1a
This would play out scenario 1a which bulls would want to see a retest and hold of the 20W SMA / 21W EMA before heading back up to attack high levels. We would expect our RSI moving Advertage to provide support in this level (see point 1a in the RSI chart). Failure to hold would strongly support the suggestion of cycle 5s bear market beginning IMO.
Scenario 2
A HOLD and bounce off the 20W SMA / 21W EMA again would give bears another chance to put bearish divergence with the weekly RSI. Watch for a higher high in price (likely a SFP or sweep of our current ATH) and a lower high closed in our Weekly RSI. This would be a scary scenario for the bulls.
BULLISH SCENARIO | BREAKING THE RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE DOWN TREND LINE
The most bullish move BTC Bulls could achieve in all the above scenarios is to breaking above the RSI Bearish Divergence Down Trend Line (shown as green up trend arrows in the RSI). This will invalidate current bearish divergences and sent bulls focus on the more speculative upper targets for this cycle.
Hope you have found this post series an interesting watch as I have.
Btc-e
VIRTUALUSDT can derail support with momentumVIRTUAL is consolidating after the rally, but it cannot continue its growth yet. A descending triangle with a clear base support and a fourth retest relative to 1.877 is being formed, which in general only increases the chances of support breakout and decline
Scenario: if the compression of this format (within the descending triangle) continues and the price continues to compress to the support at 1.877, then in this case it will be possible to catch a breakout through a limit order. A sharp impulse is possible. As the first target I will wait for a decline to 0.5 fibo (1.73)
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin set a new high?!Bitcoin is located between EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is in its descending channel. If Bitcoin moves downward towards the specified demand zone, we can look for its next buying opportunities.
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand range.
Berkshire Hathaway’s long-standing skepticism toward gold and Bitcoin may be undergoing a shift—at least that’s the perspective of Jack Mallers, CEO of Strike and the newly founded 21 Capital. In response to Warren Buffett’s recent cautionary statement about the U.S. dollar, Mallers offered a bold interpretation, suggesting that broader changes in macroeconomic conditions could eventually influence Berkshire’s conservative stance.
During Berkshire Hathaway’s latest shareholder meeting, Buffett remarked, “We never want to own an asset whose currency we believe is truly deteriorating—and that’s precisely our main concern with the U.S. dollar.” Mallers found the timing of this comment particularly significant, considering Berkshire’s sizable exposure to U.S. Treasury securities.
Speaking to Kitco News, Mallers said: “Warren has over $200 billion in U.S.Treasuries, right? So for him to openly admit this, especially while the bond market is unraveling and he’s questioning the very structure of global capital flows, reflects the broader macroeconomic context we’re in.”
Historically, Buffett has been openly critical of gold and Bitcoin, once calling gold “neither useful nor productive” and referring to Bitcoin as “rat poison squared.” But Mallers believes those comments no longer hold weight. “Those quotes sound outdated to me,” he said. “Buffett is undoubtedly a great investor, but he’s from a previous generation—one that operated under the dominance of fiat currencies and the U.S. dollar as the global reserve.”
Given that Berkshire currently holds over $230 billion in cash and Treasury holdings, Mallers sees the potential for a reallocation of capital into assets like Bitcoin and gold. “It’ll be fascinating if Buffett shifts his outlook,” he added. “Gold and Bitcoin are two of the world’s most credible, fixed-supply assets.”
In a related development within the crypto space, an interesting point has emerged: if Bitcoin’s price reaches $110,000, over $1 billion worth of short positions could be liquidated.
Standard Chartered Bank has recently revised its earlier projection, saying that its previous $120,000 price target for Bitcoin in Q2 2025 may now be too conservative. The bank now maintains a bullish outlook and has cited several key drivers behind this shift.
These include capital flows transitioning from U.S.-based assets to Bitcoin, as well as significant accumulation by large institutional investors, which has helped push prices higher.
According to Standard Chartered, approximately $5.3 billion has flowed into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs over the past three weeks. Major players such as Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund and the Swiss National Bank are reportedly among the institutional buyers. These developments signal a broader market transition—from high-risk asset correlation to a more strategic focus on liquidity and targeted accumulation within the crypto space.
Bitcoin BTC price analysis - READ the text !There was some positive news: "The US and China have agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days."
The price of CRYPTOCAP:BTC has entered the zone of total sales - $105-110 thousand.
🕯 Metrics show that large wallets are now opening short positions worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and on the other hand, no less large wallets that organized this rebound in the OKX:BTCUSDT price are very tempted to launch the final stage of cascading liquidations of shorts.
🍿 So, stock up on popcorn - it's going to be "fun" today/tomorrow, and then we'll go to the stronger side!)
Globally, before the growth wave begins, we want to see the final "shake-up" of the longs who have survived everything and still held their positions and didn't give up.
1️⃣ Weak correction in the range of $90-91k - to close the GAP that formed on this rebound and then continue to confidently update ATH with a clear conscience.
2️⃣ A strong correction to the range of $80-82k - during which it will be very interesting to watch the capital flow and dominance.
Which scenario is closer to your heart? Write in the comments!
_____________________
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110-111KMorning folks,
So, everything goes with the plan and we still consider 110-111K area as the nearest target.
At the same time this area agrees with weekly and daily overbought, so direct upside breakout hardly possible.
Naturally, when the market is already near the target it doesn't show deep retracement. Thus, we suggest that either upward action continues right from flag shape or 101K support. 98K support area looks cool, but it is more for stop placement and invalidation level rather than for expecting of real retracement there.
AUDJPY BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISAUDJPY has successfully broken out of a long-term descending channel and is currently trading around 94.50. The breakout is clean and supported by solid bullish volume, which confirms that momentum is shifting in favor of the bulls. This setup indicates a clear trend reversal on the daily timeframe, and with the pair establishing higher lows and breaking resistance, the path toward 100.00 looks technically achievable in the coming weeks.
From a fundamental standpoint, the Australian dollar is gaining strength after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained a firm stance on inflation management. The latest CPI figures remain above the RBA’s comfort zone, and recent wage growth data has further reduced the probability of near-term rate cuts. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen continues to lag due to the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary stance and consistent verbal intervention that lacks follow-through, keeping JPY broadly weaker across the board.
Technically, we’ve seen strong follow-through after the breakout, with price now holding firmly above prior resistance turned support. If this momentum sustains, we could see buyers step in aggressively, targeting 96.50 short-term and extending toward the key psychological level of 100.00 in the medium term. The risk-reward remains attractive with a clearly defined invalidation point below 91.00.
Overall, AUDJPY stands out as one of the most bullish JPY crosses on my radar. With a clean breakout, supportive fundamentals from the Australian side, and persistent weakness in the yen, this trade aligns with broader macro sentiment and could offer strong upside potential heading into the next quarter.
Bitcoin Flips $94K Into Support — Bullish Momentum BuildsStructure Strengthens:
Bitcoin's technical structure has improved significantly, with price now holding firmly above the $94,000 level — a former resistance that has flipped into solid support after multiple successful retests.
Bullish Trend Confirmation:
This move reinforces the ongoing bullish trend, driven by a broad bottoming formation from February to April and a clear series of higher lows since March.
Investor Confidence:
The consistent accumulation signals strong buying interest from long-term investors, suggesting that market participants are positioning for further upside.
Outlook & Targets:
As long as Bitcoin maintains levels above $94,000, the bullish outlook remains intact. The next near-term targets lie in the $110,000–$115,000 range.
Bitcoin appears well-positioned for the next leg of its rally. 🚀📈
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #TechnicalAnalysis #BullishTrend #Support #Breakout #MarketUpdate #PriceAction #CryptoMarket
BTC - NEW ATH COMING W MORE DETAILS Adding more detail to the current forecast. I originally had this a short opportunity at or near $104,500 or so. But I have modified that to safer played as a sell - $105,000 - $106,400 and then stand to the side, and buy back lower , near $96,400 - $95,900 for what then becomes an ATH. This could be risky for home gamers, so handle your own dreams accordingly. In the end, this resolves higher, not lower and below $83,000 as I had originally thought. Murrey Math, Elliot Wave, and Gonzalez wave systems being employed. Comments and Dms always welcome. Good luck!
+$30K Unrealized | Still Long, Is ATH Next?Even after the strong rally that pushed Bitcoin past the 100K level, the price continues to hold critical support zones without breaking recent lows. We're seeing a steady, stair-step climb ("grinding higher")—absorbing previous supply through sideways consolidation while still making higher highs.
After forming a local high near 105,000, we’ve seen some pullback—but so far, there’s been no breakdown of major support, especially on lower timeframes. The structure still favors continuation to the upside, and the broader uptrend from the 74K–83K zone remains intact.
That said, we haven’t seen any major correction yet. With the market now testing the final supply zone before all-time highs, failure to break out could trigger a wave of profit-taking. This could lead to short-term selling from traders who bought lower, anticipating new highs.
We're now in a zone where volatility can spike in both directions, making it a tough area for clean entries. Long positions may feel risky due to the high level, and shorting too early might get squeezed out by another high. But this environment also presents great short-term opportunities—as long as you're quick and manage risk tightly.
If the current bounce fails to break above 105K, it may signal a larger corrective move. The first support zone to watch is 103K, followed by 99K. Even if price pulls back to these levels, the overall trend may still be valid—these are key zones where the uptrend could resume.
At this point, we must observe whether this bounce leads to further continuation or becomes a “trap” before a larger move down. If price holds the previous supply zones as support, we could see another leg up. If not, a deeper retracement may unfold.
This is also a zone where many traders may FOMO in, expecting an immediate breakout, only to get caught in a fakeout or shakeout. Personally, I think the market is more likely to test this final supply zone with increased volatility and a deeper correction before making a real move to new all-time highs. Risk management is crucial here.
We’ve had a strong rally with no significant retracements, and while the uptrend may continue, failure to break out soon—or if profit-taking kicks in—could lead to meaningful corrections. Be prepared.
To summarize, we are in a very important decision zone:
Will price continue holding the lows and grind higher to new ATHs,
or will it reject from supply and trigger a larger retracement?
Whatever happens next, don't rush into a position out of fear of missing out.
Wait for structure, wait for confirmation, and remember: entering one step later at a better level is far better than entering too soon and getting stopped out.
BTC: Potential Dip into FVGs Before New ATHBitcoin has rocketed from ~$94 000 to ~$103 250 in just days and is now consolidating between $102 364–$104 145. A Swing Failure Pattern at the top suggests a corrective pullback into one of three Fair Value Gaps aligned with key Fibonacci retracements, before the next leg up toward a fresh all-time high. This setup uses structure, inefficiency zones, and Fib levels to pinpoint high-probability entries.
📊 Chart Breakdown
1. Current Picture: Consolidation & Warning ⚠️
- Range: $102 364 – $104 145
- Swing Failure Pattern (SFP): Price briefly wicks above $104 145 to grab liquidity, then reverses. This classic liquidity hunt often precedes a deeper retrace as late bulls are stopped out.
2. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) – Untested Support Zones 🌊
FVGs are rapid imbalance areas where price left gaps in the order book. These zones act like magnets, drawing price back to “fill” inefficiencies.
FVG 1 (Nearest): $101 700 – $102 364
FVG 2 (Mid-Zone): $99 900 – $100 600
FVG 3 (Deepest): $97 400 – $98 700
3. Fibonacci Confluences (from $93 377 → $104 145) 📏
Fibonacci retracement levels often align with FVGs to form confluence support—ideal for swing entries.
0.786 Fib @ $101 840.65: Sits squarely in FVG 1, a high-probability bounce zone.
0.618 Fib @ $100 031.62: Golden Ratio within FVG 2, offering strong support.
0.5 Fib @ $98 761 & 0.382 Fib @ $97 490.38: Cover top and mid-lower FVG 3 for a deep corrective entry.
📈📉 Navigating the Next Moves: Key Trade Scenarios 🧭
Given the current structure, with the SFP indicating a potential short-term top and strong FVG/Fibonacci confluences below, here are two primary scenarios we can watch for:
Scenario 1: The Short-Term Pullback Play (Short Position 📉🐻)
Concept: Capitalizing on the SFP at the consolidation high (~$104,145) to trade the anticipated dip towards the FVG/Fibonacci support clusters.
Aggressive Entry: Look for entries around $103,500 – $103,900 if price retests the upper part of the consolidation after the SFP, showing weakness.
Conservative Entry: A break below the consolidation low (~$102,364) could offer a confirmation entry, potentially on a retest of this broken level as resistance.
Stop-Loss 🛑: Place above the SFP high, e.g., $104,450 – $104,650, to protect against a false breakdown.
Profit Targets (FVG Zones) 🎯
TP1: The top of FVG 1 / 0.786 Fib area (~$102,300 – $101,840). This zone is critical.
TP2: The FVG 2 / 0.618 Fib area (~$100,600 – $100,030) if TP1 is breached with momentum.
Trade Management & Considerations 🤔:
Entry Confirmation: Watch for bearish price action on lower timeframes (e.g., 15m/1H rejection wicks, bearish engulfing) near the SFP high.
Profit Taking: Consider taking partial profits at TP1. The reaction here is crucial.
Reversal/Close Short: If price enters TP1 and shows strong bullish rejection (large wicks, engulfing bull candles, volume spike), close the short and prepare to flip to the long scenario.
Holding for TP2: If price slices through TP1 with sustained bearish pressure, trail your stop above TP1 once it’s clearly broken.
Invalidation: If price reclaims and holds above $104,650, the short thesis is invalidated.
Scenario 2: The FVG Rebound & Rally (Long Position 📈🐂)
Concept: Entering on the expectation that one of the FVG/Fibonacci confluence zones will hold as support, leading to a rebound and continuation of the larger uptrend.
Potential Entry Zones 📍:
Zone A (Primary): FVG 1 / 0.786 Fib area ($101,700 – $102,364, sweet spot ~$101,840).
Zone B (Secondary): FVG 2 / 0.618 Fib area ($99,900 – $100,600, sweet spot ~$100,030).
Stop-Loss 🛑:
If entering in Zone A: Place below FVG 1, e.g., $101,350 – $101,150.
If entering in Zone B: Place below FVG 2, e.g., $99,600 – $99,400.
Profit Targets 🎯:
TP1: Back to the consolidation high / SFP area (~$104,145).
TP2: The key resistance zone ($104,675 – $106,500).
TP3 (Ultimate): The All-Time High ($109,588).
Trade Management & Considerations 🤔:
Entry Confirmation: Do not blindly enter. Wait for price to enter your chosen FVG zone AND then show clear bullish confirmation on lower timeframes (e.g., 1H/4H bullish engulfing, hammer, RSI divergence).
Zone Prioritization: Zone A is the first test. If it fails and breaks down, Zone B becomes the next area of interest.
Profit Taking & Scaling Out: Take partial profits at TP1 and again at TP2 to secure gains.
Risk Reduction: After TP1 is hit, move your stop-loss to breakeven or slightly in profit.
Invalidation: A decisive break below $99,400 invalidates the bounce thesis and suggests a deeper correction.
🎯 Execution Notes
- Patience & Confirmation: Avoid “blind” entries. Seek volume confirmation and clear reversal candle patterns on 1H/4H charts.
- Risk Management: Define stops before entry and size positions to risk no more than 1–2% per trade.
- Additional Signals: Watch for bullish RSI/RSI-MFI divergences or a turn in on-balance volume at support zones.
Disclaimer: This is for educational/informational purposes only and not financial advice. Crypto trading carries high risk—always DYOR and consult a qualified advisor.
What’s your take? Which FVG/Fib level will hold? Share your insights below!
Could the Bitcoin reverse from here?The price is rising towards the pivot, which acts as a pullback resistance which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 106,807.00
1st Support: 98,376.73
1st Resistance: 112,169.51
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$BTC Post Death Cross PA Has NOT Confirmed 200DMA - Must Read!Throughout Bitcoin's history it has had 11 Death Crosses (50DMA crossing under 200DMA), and 10 of those times price has retested the 200DMA within ~3 months (with 1 outlier).
Do you know what time it did NOT retest the 200DMA? You might have guessed it… this most recent death cross ☠️
The only outlier that price did not retest the 200DMA within ~3 months was in 2015, where it took nearly a year to retest.
In that time, CRYPTOCAP:BTC ripped 200% just 75 days later, which marked the start of the PARABOLA.
This is why I have been so adamant with sticking to my base case for Bitcoin’s next move.
Is this time different? 🥸
Will it take nearly a year to retest the 200DMA?
An interesting observation I found was that if we take 90D from the most recent death cross, it brings us out to July 6th, which is right around when the 90-day pause of tariffs is lifted 🧐
Having said all that, if PA confidently breaks above and confirms previous ATH (~$110k), I will lean towards the 2015 outlier for the 200DMA retest, which would put us into late Q1 2026.
That would line up nicely with a suspected top of the cycle 🥲
WHAT’S NEXT FOR BITCOINTHE FULL PICTURE: WHAT’S NEXT FOR BITCOIN, ALTS & VOLATILITY?
May 11 – June 7
If we connect all the dots — Bitcoin price action, volatility spikes, altcoin rotation, the DXY (dollar index) behavior, and USDT dominance — here’s what the next few weeks really look like:
⸻
May 11–14
Silence before the storm
Bitcoin slightly goes up
Target zone: $105K – $109K
Volatility is LOW
😴📈
⸻
May 15–17
🚨 First dump begins
BTC starts fading
Volatility increases FAST
Target wick: $95K – GETTEX:97K
⚡️📉
⸻
May 17–21
Bitcoin bounces — but gently
Max target for this “relief” pump: $103-105K
Volatility drops again
🚫 Don’t expect new highs
🪤📈🧠
⸻
May 21–25
💥 THE BIG ONE
Volatility spikes again
BTC enters full-blown macro correction
Bottom likely lands on May 25 or 17
💀🔻
⸻
May 25 – June 2
Here comes the altcoin window
BTC UP → BTC dominance DOWN
Alts can finally PUMP again — for a moment
🚀💎🔥
⸻
June 2 – June 7
Final flush begins
4H timeframe screams collapse!
Volatility explodes
BTC likely breaks new monthly lows
Alts get obliterated
☠️📉🌊
⸻
Meanwhile… the Dollar Index (DXY)
Bottoms around May 25–28 or early June
This confirms short-term tailwind for risky assets
But once it turns up again — risk is OFF
⏳💵📊
⸻
USDT Dominance
USDT dominance turns around from May 12 and rises through July
This means people will start fixing their profits and shifting back to USDT — expect selling pressure
🔄💰📉
⸻
You’ve been warned ⚔️⏱️
BITCOIN → Consolidation before the rally. 106K - 110K?BINANCE:BTCUSDT , after breaking out of consolidation at 97,860 and distributing to 104,300, has returned to a consolidation phase, which is generally a positive sign for possible continued growth.
The growth of Bitcoin is linked to several reasons:
General improvement in the global market situation — easing of trade conflicts; Expectations of a US Fed rate cut; Influx of investment into Bitcoin ETFs
Technically , we see the price breaking out of its local downtrend and entering a strong distribution phase. The northern train continues to pick up passengers.
At this stage, I would like to draw your attention to the consolidation at 104300 - 102300. A rebound from resistance is currently forming, and we need to monitor the levels of 103300 - 102300 - 101700. These are quite important areas of interest. A false breakdown (liquidity capture) may form before further growth. A return to resistance and the formation of pre-breakout consolidation, for example between 104300 and 103300, will only increase the chances of a breakout of resistance and growth to 106-107K.
Resistance levels: 104300
Support levels: 103300, 102300, 101700
The trend is bullish, with Bitcoin consolidating. The coin is not going to fall (at the moment), but to build up potential, the price may form a false breakdown of support (a deceptive maneuver) before continuing to rise. Retesting the 104300 level could lead to a breakout and upward distribution.
Best regards, R. Linda!
BTC New Update (12H)The upward wave appears to be a complex correction. Price may retrace downward either from this area or from the red box, and then we could see another strong bullish move from Bitcoin starting from the green zone.
It doesn’t matter where the rejection occurs | what matters is the green Rebuy zone marked on the chart.
In the green zone, we are looking for buy/long positions.
A daily candle closing below the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
BITCOIN - Price can correct to support line of rising channelHi guys, this is my overview for BTCUSDT, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago, the price entered a triangle, where it dropped to the support line, after which it rose briefly to the resistance line.
Then, price exited from the triangle pattern and made a retest at once, after which it corrected $81500 level.
Next, price some time traded near this level and later fell below, but soon turned around and started to grow inside a rising channel.
In channel BTC broke the $81500 level and later rose to the $93000 level, which broke soon too, and then made a retest.
Later price bounced and continued to grow, and now it trades near the resistance line of a rising channel.
Possibly, BTC can grow a little more and then make a correction movement to $99000
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Do you think I'm joking ???I might be wrong and this might never happen, but it might come true From a technical perspective!!!
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Give me some energy !!
✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
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✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
GBPJPY BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISGBPJPY is currently trading near 190.80 and is forming a significant breakout structure on the 3-day chart. After months of consolidation under a descending trendline, the pair is now coiling tightly, signaling a potential bullish breakout. The pair has respected the lower support range near 183.70 while pushing up against descending resistance multiple times. This squeeze pattern often precedes a major directional move, and with bullish momentum building, GBPJPY could be primed for a rally toward the 210.00 zone.
Fundamentally, the British pound is finding strong support from the latest hawkish commentary by the Bank of England, which has hinted that inflation remains sticky, keeping rate cut expectations delayed. On the other hand, the Japanese yen remains under consistent pressure due to the Bank of Japan's ultra-dovish stance and yield curve control policies. The BoJ’s reluctance to shift its policy outlook, coupled with soft macro data from Japan, is weakening the yen across the board.
Technically, a breakout and close above the descending trendline around 194.00 will be a key confirmation point. If this happens, bulls could dominate and push GBPJPY toward the 210.00 resistance zone in the medium term. The R\:R on this setup remains favorable with stops safely tucked below 183.70, giving this trade strong upside potential.
This pair is currently one of my top watchlist setups for May as both the technical and fundamental landscapes align. With bullish sentiment driving GBP strength and JPY weakness being a prevailing macro theme, GBPJPY could deliver a powerful upside continuation if the breakout confirms.
BTC - Bullish SOON!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
BTC has been in a correction phase, and it feels like it's taking forever! ⏳
As long as the blue trendline holds, the overall bias remains bullish. 📈
As BTC approaches the blue trendline—perfectly aligning with a demand zone and support—we'll be watching for trend-following longs to catch the next big impulse move upward. 🚀
For now, we wait! ⏳
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Bitcoin Breaks Wedge! Correction Coming Before Next Leg? After Trump said in the press conference, " Better go out and buy stocks now ." The SPX500 index started pumping , and as I said in the ideas of the last few days, Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT )'s correlation with this index has increased. Bitcoin also started pumping.
Yesterday's Bitcoin pump succeeded in failing the Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern , generally, if the reversal pattern fails, it will play a continuation role .
Bitcoin is moving between the Support zone($100,270-$97,700) and the Resistance zone($109,588-$105,865) . The question is whether Bitcoin will touch the Support zone($100,270-$97,700) again and move towards the Resistance zone($109,588-$105,865) or will it continue its upward trend.
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that Bitcoin has completed microwave 3 of the main wave 5 . We can expect an even Time Correction on Saturday and Sunday when trading volume is low . There is also a possibility that microwave 4 of the main wave 5 in Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage($101,838-$101,432) will be completed.
One of the reasons I think we should wait for a correction is the USDT.D% ( CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D ) chart, which we used as a guide in previous ideas .
USDT.D% has reached Monthly Support(1) and a Heavy Support zone(4.73%-4.50%) , which I believe is unlikely to be broken within in first attack , and I expect an increase to the Fibonacci lines on the chart.
I expect Bitcoin to start rising again after a correction .
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $105,114-$104,100
Note: If Bitcoin touches $97,500, we should expect further declines.
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Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 2-hour time frame.
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$BTC Looking Bullish CRYPTOCAP:BTC $104,987 resistance testing, as expected some struggle here at given key resistance area. $103,093 support tested and holding as of now, Bullish engulfing on last 1D close, need to see if it gets follow thru Today. RSI on 1D in oversold region, 4H RSI looking good, 18H left to close current weekly, looking bullish as MACD turns green, $99,361 remains key support, current support range $103,093-$102,280.
(BTC) Technical Outlook: Imminent ATH ReversalBitcoin’s rejection at ~$105 000 completes a classic A–B–C corrective pattern in a low-liquidity zone. Failure to hold $90 000–$85 000 will likely trigger a rapid decline toward the primary support at $32000. Only a weekly close above $105 000 on strong volume would invalidate this bearish outlook.