BTC Q4 and the possibility's Q4 halving year needs to be studied, I expect bitcoin to remain strong while BTC.D finds it top this Q, I expect that the BTC.D will start topping this Q and from that point on leading to money flowing to ALTs instead of flowing to BITCOIN which has been the case since this cycles bottom in NOV 2022.
This post is mainly for myself to look back on.
I have nothing to prove to anyone. BUT MYSELF.
Btc-halving
Will history repeat itself ? (A look at Bitcoin Halving)What is bitcoin halving?
Bitcoin halving is a major event that occurs every four years on the Bitcoin network. It involves the reduction of the block reward that miners receive for adding new blocks of transactions to the blockchain. The block reward was initially set at 50 BTC when the Bitcoin network first launched, and it has been halved twice since then. The first halving occurred in November 2012, reducing the block reward to 25 BTC, and the second halving occurred in July 2016, reducing the block reward to 12.5 BTC. The most recent halving occurred on May 11th, 2020, and reduced the block reward to 6.25 BTC. This process is designed to keep the total supply of bitcoin limited and controlled, helping to preserve its value over time. It is a significant event in the Bitcoin community and is often seen as a catalyst for price movements in the cryptocurrency market.
The price of bitcoin has historically trended upwards in the months and years following previous halving events. For example, the price of bitcoin began to rise significantly in the months leading up to the first halving event in November 2012, and it continued to climb in the years following the event. Similarly, the price of bitcoin increased significantly in the months leading up to the second halving event in July 2016, and it reached an all-time high of almost $20,000 in December 2017, several months after the event.
In the above chart, we can see a similar pattern with each Bitcoin halving cycle. In the first halving cycle the price of bitcoin was trending downward until the halving event and after the halving, it started moving upward and reached the peak price of around 1100 USD and started the downtrend for the upcoming bear run till the next bitcoin halving cycle.
Similarly in the second halving cycle bitcoin started moving upward after the halving and reached the ATH price of around 20,000 USD and initiating the next downtrend cycle.
And in the latest halving cycle the price moved downward until the halving cycle and started moving upwards after the halving and reached the ATH of around 69,000 USD and initiating a new bear trend.
Currently, we are in a bear market (crypto winter until the next bitcoin half which is supposed to occur on April 2024, we can expect a clear uptrend after the bitcoin halving cycle and to reach a new ATH.
In my personal opinion, this is a great opportunity to invest in Bitcoin and increase your overall bitcoin holdings. If history repeats itself then we will see a new ATH in the next 2 years. (Based on past data bitcoin tends to hit new ATH within 1 year of the halving)
Stay tuned for more long-term crypto analysis and education content.
Thanks
Hexa
BITCOIN FORMED CUP AND HANDLE PATTERNThis is the same as in 2014-2015-2016, in 2016 there was a halving and the bad news was that Bitfinex was hacked which caused prices to fall and mass panic selling.
And happen again in 2022-2023-2024, in 2024 Bitcoin Halving and a lot of bad news including the German Government and Mt.Gox selling Bitcoin and the price dropping to the $53K- GETTEX:54K area.
1st idea: going to $SWB:69K-$70K (Cup and Handle resistance area) if breakout = valid
2nd idea: going to GETTEX:64K - FWB:65K then dump to $50K then pump again.
BTC - A Healthy Pullback or a Sign of More to Come?Hey fellow crypto enthusiasts! Let's dive into Bitcoin's recent price action and what we can expect in the coming months.
The Correction Phase: Why It's Not All Doom and Gloom
First off, don't panic about the current correction phase. After the halving, a correction was not just expected. It’s healthy! Think of it as Bitcoin catching its breath before the next big sprint. We're seeing an ABC correction pattern, which savvy traders will recognize as a typical and necessary, market movement.
Timing the Market: When to Make Your Move
So, when’s this correction likely to wrap up? Our crystal ball suggests somewhere between July and August/September. This is the perfect window to dollar-cost average (DCA) into your positions. By buying a fixed dollar amount of BTC at regular intervals, you can average out your entry price, reducing the impact of volatility.
Long Positions: Entering long positions in the 50000-52245 range could be a smart move, considering the support levels and the bullish outlook post-summer.
Key Levels to Watch: The Golden Zone
Here’s where it gets interesting. The big kahuna level to keep an eye on is 50K. Not only is it a psychological level, but it’s also where several technical indicators converge. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the smaller wave sits at $52,245, while the 0.382 Fibonacci level of the entire 491 day bull run is at $51,690. This zone also hosts an old trading range, known as a bullish order block. Translation? This area is packed with historical significance and potential support.
Fibonacci Levels:
Fib 0.618 of the smaller wave is at $52,245.
Fib 0.382 of the entire 491-day bull run is at $51,690.
Ichimoku Cloud: Your Support Safety Net
On the daily timeframe, the Ichimoku cloud’s edge (custom settings) aligns around the 50K mark, offering additional support. It's like having an extra safety net below a tightrope walker.
Altcoins: The Unsung Heroes
Don't forget about altcoins! Many have pulled back significantly, with some seeing 60-80% corrections. This is a golden opportunity to DCA into altcoins and position yourself for potential gains. Remember, during market corrections, altcoins often offer lucrative entry points for those looking to diversify.
Wrapping Up: The Bigger Picture
While the correction phase may seem daunting, it’s a natural part of the market cycle. The key levels around 50K-52K are not just numbers, they’re strategic entry points. With the support of the Ichimoku cloud there’s a lot to be optimistic about as we move towards the end of summer.
What do you think? Are you positioning yourself for the end of the correction? Drop your thoughts and let’s discuss!
With a clearer understanding of Bitcoin's correction phase and the key levels to watch, you're now better equipped to navigate the crypto waters. Happy trading!
BTC - Potential new ATH by the end of this monthWe're currently in a downtrend, with Lower Lows and Lower Highs; however, it seems to be looking slightly bullish right now. Lots of different data showing the price will likely increase to ~70k within the next few weeks.
There is a lot of resistance within the yellow zone highlighted here. The price will likely face rejection within this zone and if we're lucky will correct back to ~62k support at the lowest. From there there is a better chance of the 70k movement occurring.
The price is currently very undervalued, but also volume is quite low. This is likely due to the fact many have bought and are still holding, and new investors are waiting to see what will happen.
If the price however drops below 56.6k on the rejection, we may see extended bearish price movement to the 48-52k region, but likewise this should just be temporary; but it will postpone the 70k+ push by likely a few weeks.
If the trend however is bullish, this could result in a new ATH by the end of this month. A new ATH by the end of this month would put the price of BTC back on track with its trajectory to reach 198k by end of June 2025.
Bitcoin wave count for the next 6 to 12 monthsBitcoin wave count for the next 6 to 12 months
According to the count indicated on the chart, probably wave 4 of 3 has been completed and wave 5 of 3 has already started. Probably the target of this movement will be from the range of 82000 to 99000 dollars. After that, the correction will probably start to form the main wave 4, and compared to the main wave 1, we can have the possibility that 6 months will pass for this correction. The price range for the main wave 4 will be from 70,000 to 54,000. After that, the main wave 5 will be formed and the expected range for this wave is from $99,000 to $15,000.
BTC - Boring Month⁉️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
BTC has been hovering within a big range between $60,000 support and $70,000 resistance.
Scenarios:
1️⃣ Bullish
For the bulls to take full control again, a break above the $72,000 mark is needed.
In this case, a movement towards the $80,000 resistance would be expected.
2️⃣ Bearish
In parallel, if the $60,000 support is broken downward, we expect a bearish movement towards the $50,000 demand zone.
Which scenario is more likely to happen first? and why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
btc halving in weekly chart since 2023 #btc formed 5 wave and till now there was no green candle with open and close upper than 69000 $. with accepting ETF , huge money entered the market and it makes a rally somehow with 5th wave looks like it needs a break.
history of halving shows after 28 nov 2012, market was in rang for 50 days.
in 9 july 2016 it was 90 days rang.
and in 11 may 2020 , it was 70 days rang, and after that rally began.
so now I think as an amateur , maybe #btc needs some time to recovery for next bull run and because we just pass one during a whole year, maybe this time it wanst just a rang. maybe maybe maybe a correction happen even to 42000$. just maybe.
what do you think about it?
BTC - Follow The Flow 🌊Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 BTC has been overall bullish , trading within the rising channel in orange.
Currently, BTC is in a correction phase, approaching the lower bound of the channel.
Moreover, the highlighted red zone is a strong demand.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the red demand zone and lower orange trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #BTC approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
BTC Trend Projection - First steps to reach 198k by July 2025We are projecting an ATH of 198k by June 29th, 2025. For BTC to reach this it has some steps it needs to follow. These steps can be broken down into chunks and here we aim to break down the first part.
Likewise, here is a quick evaluation of how BTC is currently doing and what may happen in the upcoming few days to a month.
Bull:
BTC may have corrected downwards and sideways enough to become being properly evaluated. What this means is that BTC's Price and Halving projection line are very close together. This is great news as it means bullish momentum may be happening soon and this will help maintain a strong support and potentially the lowest the price may crash to in the upcoming few days.
Bear:
Unfortunately there is still some short term bearish momentum going on and the price may correct further to the 60-62k area. This should be only temporary and can be considered a good entry point to get into the market if you haven't already as most trading pairs are at a pretty good buy in price right now.
Conclusion:
Be cautious if you have a liquidation in the 60-62k price range as this correction may hit that area before the bullish momentum picks in and we slowly climb back to the 70k+ region.
If you haven't bought in yet, the next few days may be about the best you are going to get unless you want to wait until July 2026 where we may see a low of 50k..
BTC's bullish momentum may be very close to happening again, this short correction was necessary but may be almost over.
There is a potential possibility of side ways movement until May, however BTC is generally very volatile and there is a better chance we see 1-5% price movements up and down between 60-75k for the next month; so even though bullish movement may happen soon; there may still be bearish movements in between. The true parabolic movement is likely awhile away.
When BTC does exhibit parabolic movement, it usually does so for a few days to week before slowing down with a correction, consolidation and then continuation. Its never just straight up forever, be cautious!
Mara cooling down before the next leg upIt's been a difficult time being a Mara/BTC miner holder the past few weeks, as BTC has hit ATH's and the miners have counterintuitively been crashing and burning..
No one was expecting the BTC ETF to have the demand that it did, there just isn't enough BTC out there, post halving this will get even tighter. Historically, once previous cycle ATH's have been breached the average time for BTC to double in price is c.70 days, if this holds true we are going to see a $140k BTC by the Summer.
With that backdrop, moving onto the Miners, Mara was way over-extended and had run up too hard (As seen by the large bearish divergence on the RSI), it needed to cool down, this is just reversion to the mean and I can see it falling further to the $18-19 levels where there is historical support. I think at these levels it is a big buying opportunity and I can see this going far higher - $40 by end of April is where I see this going. The weak hands are being flushed out and it is supercharged and primed for a move higher! Let's see how it plays out :)
Bitcoin ~10% before ATH🟠🔵Bitcoin ~10% before ATH🟠
And that before Bitcoin Halving 🔵
Guess we have to accept that these times are different 🤷♂️
I can❗️Same for you❓😉
Comments💭, Likes♥️ & Follow🔗appreciated🤗
Disclaimer:
Not financial advice
Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
What to know about past Bitcoin halvingsBitcoin halving is an event that halves the rate at which new Bitcoins are introduced to a network (or mined). This event occurs approximately every four years or after 210,000 blocks have been mined; as a result, each halving reduces the reward given to miners by half and mimics a concept known as the hardening of a currency (meaning it is harder to extract it over time, like gold, for example). Considering one such event is approaching in the next two months, we would like to look at past halving periods. The first halving occurred on 28th November 2012, when the block reward was cut from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. Interestingly, Bitcoin gained about 27% from its lows on 27th October 2012 until one day before the first halving; in the next 30 days after halving, it gained another 10%. In the 90 days after the event, Bitcoin rose nearly 159%; one year after the first halving, Bitcoin was up an astounding 8,334%.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows Bitcoin in 2012 and early 2013. The yellow arrow indicates the date of the first halving.
About 30 days before the second halving, Bitcoin was on a similar upside trajectory as during the first halving cycle, gaining approximately 14% (though the run-up was slightly more than 34% at some point). However, in the next 24 days after the second halving, Bitcoin lost nearly one-third of its value before rebounding; 30 days after the second halving, it was down only about 5% (measured from the opening price on the day of the second halving). In the 90 days after the event, Bitcoin was down almost 8% (which coincides with the time it started to reverse to the upside). In one year after the second halving, Bitcoin was up 284%.
Illustration 1.02
The image above illustrates BTCUSD on the daily time frame in 2016. The yellow arrow indicates the date of the second halving when the block reward was reduced to 12.5 BTC.
The third Bitcoin halving took place on 11th May 2020. It was preceded by a massive (and rapid) selloff in stock and cryptocurrency markets due to the start of the coronavirus pandemic earlier that year. From a peak on 20th February 2020 until a low on 13th March 2020, Bitcoin dropped more than 63% (in less than 30 days). From its lows in March, Bitcoin soared by 126% until the day of halving (yet it was still lower than at its peak in February). Bitcoin’s performance in the 30 days after the third halving was about 9%, and in the 90 days after the event, it was about 40%; one year after the halving, Bitcoin was up 565%.
Illustration 1.03
Illustration 1.03 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates the third Bitcoin halving in 2020 when the block reward was reduced to 6.25 BTC.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish (losing momentum)
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Bitcoin is Finishing bullish wave In my opinion ATH is not available before halving and before massive correction , Maximum Price would be 58200 and Final destination for my expected correction wave could be 29k-32k, Im not sure how much could be fast or slow but most probably before halving we will not see ATH.Do not get caught up in fomo. now is not good time for long position and buy. The market will provide us with better opportunities
Bitcoin in 2024 - before and after HalvingHere are the 🗝 takeaways that I see in this Bitcoin chart
1-🗝
It is possible that the huge liquidity area at ~34k will get hit before new ATHs
2-🗝
As the cycles before this important support 🟢-line might point out at which date the max pain daily close price is
3-🗝
Comparing the past cycles with view to lenght and percentages the breakout to new ATHs might occur at arround September or November 2024
Please take a view on this chart and the whole view chart followed in the comments👀
If you see value in it let me know your thoughts😎
Comments💭, Likes♥️ & Follow🔗appreciated🤗
Disclaimer:
Not financial advice
Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
Bitcoin Temporary SWING but also Long Term LONGThis Long on Bitcoin is very much LONG TERM due to the fact that the halving and so many of our indicators and others are pointing towards it.
However, this Long in our opinion does have a temporary swing to it. We may be suspecting a temporary increase to ~48-50k in the upcoming 2 - 3 weeks BEFORE a Correction back to the 44.5-45k mark by February.
After this mark around early to mid February we are projecting parabolic movement on the trajectory of our BTC Halving Indicator of 198.4k by June 29th, 2025. If this is indeed to happen, the slope/trajectory the price will need to take to reach its predicted High by its predicted Date will be exponentially parabolic.
We understand that many other Halving's analysis is anticipating April to be the Halving. If this is indeed true; this doesn't forgo our Trajectory; if anything it simply may make it more Parabolic in Nature.
So stay tuned; the volume within the Crypto Market itself, along with BTC may become parabolic and exponential in the upcoming months. Now may still be a great time to enter if our prediction of 198.4k by June 29th, 2025 is correct.
Likewise by this slope of movement, if correct, we will see a new BTC ATH by Early May 2024.
Bitcoin(BTC): Pre-Halving Drop? / Repeat Of History?Bitcoin's monthly chart is painting an intriguing picture as we edge closer to the April 2024 halving. The price is not only going for an attempt to test previous all-time highs but the RSI is echoing a pattern from the last pre-halving period, striking a pattern to be repeated with historical price movements.
As we see the RSI return to levels it last saw right before the drop caused by the halving, traders who have been in the business for a long time are on high alert for a possible repeat of history. The way the market is going now reminds us of the push before the halving.
P.S. Past performance does not always mean future performance, but the market is paying attention as so are we.
We will all be wise to consider the lessons of the past halving cycles, balancing optimism with a disciplined review of the RSI and price action.
Understanding the Impact of Bitcoin Halving on PriceUnderstanding the Impact of Bitcoin Halving: A Comprehensive Guide
Introduction
Bitcoin, the world’s most renowned cryptocurrency, operates on a decentralized network utilizing blockchain technology. One critical event that has a profound impact on Bitcoin's supply and valuation is the process known as "Bitcoin Halving." This event occurs approximately every four years or, more precisely, every 210,000 blocks, reducing the reward that miners receive for adding new blocks to the blockchain by 50%.
The Genesis of Bitcoin Halving
Bitcoin halving was embedded into the protocol by its mysterious creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, to control inflation and ensure scarcity. The first block, known as the "genesis block," was mined in 2009, providing a reward of 50 bitcoins. Since then, there have been three halvings, reducing the block rewards to 25, 12.5, and 6.25 bitcoins respectively.
The Mechanics of Bitcoin Halving
When a bitcoin halving occurs, the reward that miners receive for validating and adding new transactions to the blockchain is cut in half. This effectively reduces the rate at which new bitcoins are created and subsequently, the overall supply of bitcoins increases at a decelerating pace.
Impact on Miners
Miners play a pivotal role in maintaining the integrity of the Bitcoin network by solving complex mathematical problems to validate transactions and secure the network. The reduced rewards post-halving can impact their profitability, especially those with higher operational costs, potentially leading to a decline in the number of active miners.
Scarcity and Value
The inherent scarcity due to halvings is a crucial factor driving Bitcoin’s value. As the reward diminishes and fewer bitcoins enter circulation, the scarcity typically leads to an increase in value, assuming demand remains constant or increases.
Historical Perspective and Market Reaction
Historically, Bitcoin halvings have been precursors to significant price rallies. For example, the 2012 halving saw Bitcoin’s value rise from approximately $12 to over $1,000 within a year. Similarly, the 2016 halving preceded the monumental rise to nearly $20,000 by the end of 2017.
However, market reactions to halvings are not immediate and often exhibit a lag, primarily due to speculative trading, market sentiment, and macroeconomic factors. It's essential to note that past performance is not indicative of future results, and various factors can influence Bitcoin’s price.
Long-term Implications
Supply Limit and Deflationary Nature
Bitcoin's protocol stipulates a maximum supply limit of 21 million coins, emphasizing its deflationary nature. Halvings ensure that the total supply of Bitcoin will not be mined until approximately the year 2140. This scarcity can make Bitcoin a potentially valuable asset, likened to "digital gold," and a hedge against inflation.
Evolution of Mining Technology
Over the years, the increase in mining difficulty and decrease in block rewards have driven technological advancements in mining hardware, promoting efficiency and sustainability. The future might witness further innovations in mining technology, enabling miners to continue operations despite reduced rewards.
Institutional Adoption
Bitcoin halving events and the subsequent impact on price and scarcity have contributed to increased awareness and adoption of Bitcoin as an asset class. Institutional investment and mainstream acceptance are likely to play a crucial role in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition and stability.
Conclusion
Bitcoin halving is a pivotal event in the cryptocurrency’s lifecycle, designed to control inflation and enforce scarcity. While historically associated with substantial price increases, numerous factors influence Bitcoin’s value in the wake of a halving. The long-term implications of halving events are multifaceted, affecting miners, investors, and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem.
As Bitcoin continues to mature, its deflationary nature, technological advancements in mining, and growing institutional adoption may solidify its standing as a legitimate and valuable asset class. However, prospective investors should exercise due diligence, considering the inherent risks and volatility associated with investing in cryptocurrencies.
Halving vs Price Impact
Halving Date: Nov 28, 2012
Block Number: 210,000
Reward Before Halving (BTC): 50
Reward After Halving (BTC): 25
Price Before Halving (USD): ~$12
Peak Price After Halving (USD): ~$1,150
Time to Peak After Halving: ~1 year
Halving Date: Jul 9, 2016
Block Number: 420,000
Reward Before Halving (BTC): 25
Reward After Halving (BTC): 12.5
Price Before Halving (USD): ~$650
Peak Price After Halving (USD): ~$20,000
Time to Peak After Halving: ~1.5 years
Halving Date: May 11, 2020
Block Number: 630,000
Reward Before Halving (BTC): 12.5
Reward After Halving (BTC): 6.25
Price Before Halving (USD): ~$8,500
Peak Price After Halving (USD): ~$64,000
Time to Peak After Halving: ~1 year
Notes:
Price Before Halving (USD): This represents the approximate price of Bitcoin shortly before the halving event.
Peak Price After Halving (USD): This represents the highest price Bitcoin reached after the halving, before experiencing significant correction.
Time to Peak After Halving: This represents the approximate time it took for Bitcoin to reach its peak price after the halving.
Yours!
Charting Bitcoin's Game-Theoretical DynamicsUNDERSTANDING BITCOIN'S UNIQUE PRICE CYCLICALITY
Since inception, nearly 15 years ago, Bitcoin's full price-cycle (peak to trough and back) has been patently agnostic to rate policy changes, liquidity events, inflation expectations, and all other macroeconomic news.
This never-before-seen degree of cyclicality versus the surrounding macroeconomic environment is positively mind-boggling, not just for the NYFED, but for every one of us who has researched financial & economic history, professionally.
BITCOIN'S ASYNCHRONOUS VALUATION MECHANISM
However, when methodically inspecting Bitcoin's price-asynchronicity versus the deeply distorted and ultimately arbitrary pricing system, imposed by central planners to their benefit, its genesis becomes evident:
Bitcoin has established an independent, if contemporary currency-valuation system, whose supply-demand dynamics are predominantly the opposite of our current monetary system's fictitious and constantly expanding Money Layers. In essence:
"Levering upon its 100% demand-inelastic production vs its Layer I monetary role -as a final-settlement asset, Bitcoin's utility function is wholly independent of systemic financial variables- allowed Satoshi to game our instinct to preserve intrinsic value (rooted in scarcity vs hoarding behavior traits) in order to tightly pin its price to a ~1000-Day Up Leg vs a ~400-Day Down Leg, regardless of the fiat macro subset."
CHRONOLOGICAL CONSISTENCY IN BITCOIN’S PRICE TRAJECTORY
Thus why, when you split Bitcoin's 15-year price chart into 4 lines each for the halvings (blue) & their midpoints (grey), you find that each peak to trough cycle has pivoted up or down over the same time interval between each color pair.
To visualize these dynamics, I drew blue verticals for each halving date and grey ones for each midpoint date. As the chart shows, Up Legs start about two years before halvings and end about one year after them, lasting about 1000 days. That is when Down Legs start: a few months before midpoints and they end a few months after them, lasting about 400 days, which drove me to conclude that by:
EMPIRICAL FOUNDATIONS AND FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES
From the first week of the analysis, I found the pattern had nothing to do with the Rainbow Charts or Stock-to-Flow Model others have proposed in comparison to Gold, whose fiat price hasn't been a challenge to manipulators ever since Volcker began raising policy rates in the 80s, which finally let COMEX Gold Futures truly start swaying Gold Spot prices.
TECHNICAL ADDENDA: CONSTRAINTS AND RECURRING PATTERNS
Up Legs until now, seem confined to return no higher than ~20% over the immediately previous high return, within their ~1000-day period. This has occurred persistently between the months before and after each halving. While Down Legs seem confined to a return loss no higher than 80% of the immediately previous high return, within their ~400-day period. This has also occurred persistently between the months before and after each Midpoint.
Finally, here's why we can't just pick and choose the last +400 Day bottom. Until the "Latest Bottom" hypothesis is proven (at the end of the present cycle), we cannot firmly establish its precise date or price. All we can do is theorize its value ex-ante (via interpolating the last two ex-post time period samples -as shown in the excel sheet below). No alt text provided for this image. Ex-ante y and x values after line 35 are merely projections trained on the confirmed ex-post values shown above it.
THE CHALLENGE OF FUTURE PREDICTIONS
The above means that December 26th is not even the lowest price low, it results from averaging the total amount of days that elapsed as the last two ex-post lows were reached. The same goes for the price and date at the end of the dashed white lines, on the top chart. In sum, every one of the ex-ante y and x values projected by the dotted lines are merely projections trained on the confirmed ex-post values locked on top of the partial ellipses formed by the slope of the secants dropping off.
AN ESSENTIAL WARNING
Upon the above, please note that viewing this occurrence from a financial gain perspective betrays the prejudices that keep our society from considering what other forces move the universe. Instead, this evidence should compel our sense of wonder & unbiased search for answers & opinions. For instance, no matter the brainwash we've been taught about Economics through our lives, we're being played by an algorithm. Finally, even if the algorithm's author were to assure us his contraption is meant to help us own good, and all evidence seems to point that way, no one, except you can decide what that means for your financial futures.
🔥 Attention Litecoin Holders: Convert To BTC While You Can! 🚨If you enjoy this analysis, please give it a like and a follow.
Today is the big day: the third LTC halving will happen in a couple of hours. This means that the rewards from mining will be halved, same as the BTC halving.
Although the LTC halving has been generally a bullish event in the months before the halving, it has always been a bearish event once it has happened. Buy the rumor, sell the news.
As seen on the LTC/BTC chart, it has historically ALWAYS been a better option to convert your LTC to BTC after the halving. In other words, BTC has always outperformed LTC in the months after the halving.
Do with this info what you want. All I know is that Bitcoin will very likely outperform Litecoin for the coming months.
BTC market cycle tops inverted onto current price, date targets.I mapped the bars pattern from the BTC market cycle tops. I projected where the price action might go by inverting the top pattern and then matching it to the current price action by stretching the pattern. It says we will stay around this range until July, then will pull back to 20k by sep/oct, rally Oct/Nov to 25k, pullback dec, 15.5k lows through march 2024. Price action will spike at the BTC halving on 4/22/24 from 17.4 - 23.7 beginning an uptrend. There will be a pullback to 19.3k in the beginning of June before we rally to 28k to AUG. Then we go sideways and down for 220days. 11months after the halvening we will breakout. June 09 2025 we will break out to 44k and continue much higher. According to this theory I just charted today, could be invalidated in the next couple of months.