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Btc-halving

L9 - BTC Trend Analysis (Cycle/Halving)This chart is the study of previous cycles of BTC; • BTC take appx 47-48 months to create new ATH from the previous one. o As per the projections next ATH will be created in the Months of Sep-Nov 2025. • BTC takes 12-13 months to create the bottom of the cycle from ATH of the cycle. o As per the projections, BTC will create bottom in the months of Dec’ 22 – Jan’ 23. • BTC normally drops between 84%-86% after creating ATH in next 12-13 months. o At 85% BTC bottom for the cycle is projected at $10,000
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by BilalAhmad1
BTC Next Halving ?Hello everyone, today I would like to share an idea about bitcoin next halving. Can we predict the next halving of bitcoin with the help of previous cycles? A bitcoin halving is scheduled to take place every 210,000 blocks. Three bitcoin halvings have already taken place, one in 2012, 2016, and the last halving in 2020. The bitcoin halving prediction shown above is for the next halving set to occur in 2024. The next bitcoin halving is scheduled to take place at block 840,000 which is predicted to be on Jun 30, 2024. At the bitcoin halving 2024, the bitcoin block reward is scheduled to drop from 6.25 bitcoin per block to 3.125 bitcoin per block. From a technical analysis point of view we could roughly estimate the next halving in August 2024. It is still a bit early to have a precise estimate, at the time of writing this idea we are on November 27, 2022, date at which the market has not yet reached its lowest point. We can see from past data that over the last twelve years August has been more often in the negative than in the positive. In the ten months preceding it, especially April 2024 and May 2024 could be conducive to a potential halving of 2024. The financial markets are cyclical, so there is a good chance that bitcoin will go up at some point, but since it is highly correlated to the S&P500 it could be in 1 month or 10 years. To guarantee that bitcoin could exceed its high would be completely absurd, given the short history we have of bitcoin, the very notion of halving is to be taken with a pinch of salt. Indeed it has only happened three times. The market is very young (less than 20 years) so it is very complicated to predict these cycles. In my opinion, in order to predict the next halving (and although according to me this notion of halving should be taken with a pinch of salt), we should wait to see where our next low will be. Depending on this, we could then observe whether the macroeconomic environment is evolving in a direction favourable to a next bull run. If the low point seems logical (around $12,000), that the environment is favourable to a new bull run and finally that a range break occurs from above $34,000 then it could seem interesting to invest in BTC to aim for $65,000 or even why not a new ATH. I would like to remind you that crypto-currencies are very risky and highly volatile investments. Therefore, for the majority of investors, they should represent less than 5% of their capital. THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Written by @maxencechachuat on 27 November 2022.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn46586981
6
% increase between 4 year halving cycle tops is diminishingIn trying to figure out if it is possible to still go above $100,000 this 4 year cycle... I've determined that if this chart is remotely correct, then it is impossible for btc prices to go above $100k before May of 2024. I hope it is wrong, but this suggest this 4 year cycle will top out at around $81,000 Then next 4 year cycle will top out at around $106,900 (which is a 2.24 trillion market cap) ....if the top keeps happening later and later in the 4 year cycle...then $100k would happen after 2026 but before 2028 Just brain farts here, don't get too excited
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Elikum
1
BTC on Track for its 8th Consecutive Weekly Loss Are We OversoldBitcoin (BTC) is on track to record losses for the eighth week in a row, the longest streak of losses in history. Before this streak, the previous biggest consecutive weekly losses were recorded in December 2014, when Bitcoin was worth just a few hundred USD and was down for five weeks in a row. Is Bitcoin Oversold? Despite the severe sell-off, Bitcoin is still not oversold, according to the most popular momentum oscillators. Bitcoin’s current weekly RSI reading of 33.67 shows that we aren’t oversold just yet. The RSI oscillator would need to fall below 30, or even 20, to be considered oversold. Meanwhile, the stochastic oscillator has entered oversold readings, but unlike the RSI, it has the tendency to stay in oversold readings longer, as it is more volatile and quick to react. By comparison, in 2014, after the record weekly losses streak, Bitcoin consolidated for 31 weeks before it resumed an upward trajectory. Looking forward: The Bitcoin sell-off can slow down in the near future, and we might see a temporary bottom around the $30,000 considerable round number. However, in the long-term, the correction can extend all the way to $20,000, which is a massive support level since it is the all-time high reached in the 2017 bull run. A fall to $20,000 would also allow the RSI oscillator to reach oversold readings.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by cryptohopper
BTC 4 year cycle projectionSame as my previous ideas, just added a few things to the chart. (Lines between high and low of each cycle are exact same angle and 83% price drop. This time around 83% drop at same angle would go to $12k in November.) Just an idea on the seemingly regular cadence of the BTC 4 year cycle. I am basing my strategy on this. Short BTC to November rebalancing at support and resistance levels. When BTC hits the 200 week/50 month MA, and the RSI 30 weekly/44.5 monthly, switch long on BTC and long altcoins there as well, entering small position at first, because drop to $12 is possible, ready to average down. Then just regular rebalancing at support and resistance levels into Oct. 2025. I've seen arguments that the BTC cycle is lengthening and there is another major run coming this year with blow off top, but I don't buy it. 1) The RSI has not bottomed out yet. Last two cycles, it bottomed 12 months after the cycle high. 2) There really isn't going to be a sudden super massive flood of new buyers entering the crypto market again so soon after the last one, and that's necessary to create a major run. 3) The BTC halving cycle, which the price cycle is based on, has not lengthened. 4) The price cycle, shown as a consistent cadence, rather than lengthening, matches up with highs and lows of the past few cycles with pretty high precision. 5) BTC has not revisited the 200 week/50 month ma. Last two cycles, did so 12 months after cycle high.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by jchristy3
BTC Halving Cycles Model: A Closer LookIf you've seen my previous ideas, you'll know that I trade on the halving cycle and I can prove mathematically that the cycles are getting longer, not just the block processing length, but also the bull run as well. I just want to take a second to point a few specific things out about my model, and talk about some updates I've recently made. You'll notice the fib band rainbow that wasn't there before, if you've seen my previous charts as they've evolved on here. I believe that this log curve and these fib bands are a generally reliable way to forecast btc's price advancement. Notably, look at the first halving. At the 133d point we peak at around 260$ before entering a 7 month long Bear/crab market correction that shed 73% of the value. Now, obviously, that was a much more infantile, volatile market, much less money being traded, but it's important because it has established a long term trend that has yet to be broken. As it is, we've only broken into the 50 percentile range as far as downtrend this goes (less volatile, more strength, more mature), So we've still got a long way before real bearishness could set in. All of this downtrend has been crab market shakeout traps. Traps for bulls and bears and everyone in between. If you notice the orange band where wave 1 tops in 2012, it's the same as where this has topped. We recently went and tested the blue bottom band, and you see the results, about 10k up in a week. We are back above the 1w50ma, a line that has typically spelled doom and gloom for btc in the past. As long as we stay above that I would remain bullish and be VERY careful with bearish leveraged trades unless you can catch a fast retrace or obvious trade (make sure to double check your confirmation bias for what you think is obvious though) The halving cycles are getting longer. This means that price action has more time to move before it will hit it's highs and lows. If my calculation is correct the parabolic peak will be next year in the spring. Things to keep an eye on: Mid October could be interesting. The 367 day price memory event has been confirmed in both the 2016 and the 2020 cycle, so if we are in an uptrend at that point, I think it would be safe to prepare a bit for bears to make some big moves. People will think that everything is over after that, until we finally ascend to the true peak. Also, there's a chance this wave was "early". We have a lot of time until the projected cycle end, and even with my price memory idea in play, mid august-early September seemed like the more likley target. I still think those months will be strong, but in the meantime we could be in a giant trap still. The higher we go, and the stronger the PA is the less I worry about it, but this is a dangerous market, and traps can appear out of nowhere until we approach the ATH, or at least the trend line that you can draw down from it. This is my plan, I've been sticking too it for a lot longer than I've had an account on TV, and it constantly evolves as new data is found. My model is designed to help people understand that this market is volatile, and it will do unthinkable things. I never get caught by the shakeout, and I want to help make sure others can have the same advantage.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoidiotQ
1
BTC Model 1: Longer Cycles = More MoneyI believe that TA is only so useful without good research and a models to back it up. I have been investing in crypto since the 2012, when a stoner friend of mine convinced me that BTC was going to be the money of the future and an exponential growth asset. Stoned as he was, he was also a heck of a math wiz and I guess he saw the potential for this currency very early on. I bought in 5k @ ~$10. He told me don't sell till it hits 100k. I happily sold most of it at $100 right as it started going back down, excited and full of emotion. How those emotions changed in only a few months as I saw it shoot up 10 over 1k and never hit 100 dollars again.... This model is the result of learning the hard way the importance of patience, not trading on feelings, and having a plan. I think this chart should speak for itself. The cycles are getting longer. Current price action is confirmation of this. This includes the halving cycle itself. It's not 4 years. It's not 3 years, 7 months, it's 210000 blocks. The time it takes to get there is a function of the rate of btc creation and how many machines are running and being added to the network. The second halving to the third halving took 6.91% longer than it did from between 1 and 2. This cycle will be important for determining what sort of variable we're really working with, but if we go from the implied growth rate of 6.91 we arrive at 1504 days till the next halving, 188 days more than the first halving. That's not exactly a small span of time, and plenty could happen within it. Btc has really never went below the green trend line since the halving events started. No reason to think it will any time soon. We're still a ways off, well within range of what's expected for the mid cycle shake out. Regarding that shakeout concept, I've heard the idea that price remembers. Here on this chart you can see that play out. Very interesting where this shakeout started when you look at cycle 1, isn't it? I expect us to go up till around the 511 day mark past the halving, have another scary bump like this, and then finally ascend to the true top. This pattern will repeat and overlap until it invalidates itself and could last several halvings/decades and become very complex. It should be noted that the only thing that took us out of the green wave was Covid, a global plague that killed tons of people. It also recovered quickly, in classic black swan fashion. I'd imagine that line is pretty safe, and that this slow bleed won't even touch it. BTC is an asset that is capable of exponential growth. It has shown a multi phase structure in the past, and I suspect that structure will continue, and become more complex. We have seen wave 1 of 2, possibly 3. the 2016 halving cycle started to produce a third wave, though it never put in a new ATH with it. This time it will, and then produce a 4th smaller wave after that during the bear market. 100k-200k is the range I'm looking for the cycle top in. If you think the run is over, I'd suggest we haven't even gotten started. What we all just saw is what I call the attention wave, it hooks everyone back into the market and tells big money to start looking again. Then they shake out all the unprepared new guys and cowards, and push us into the parabolic phase, which only gets supported by everyone buying back into it. Sure, that rise we saw is technically parabolic... but... well.... just wait.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptoidiotQ
1
Bitcoin Weekly Bollinger Band Head Fake Bull Reversal SetupHey guys, This is a quick update in regards to the latest Bitcoin price action following my earlier Weekly update. For those who have not subscribe yet to my chain simply hit that Like and Follow buttons to receive the latest notifications/updates. Last week in an earlier update, I warned that closing below the 1W midband at 48.4K would send us much deeper to two important buy levels: 34-35Ks 31-29K or the Weekly bottom band These two levels were just hit in the past 6 hours from which Bitcoin bounced hard from to 41-42Ks! Now that we tagged the buy/long 31-29K bottom of the Weekly Bollinger Band, there is a possibility of seeing a large scale bull reversal through what John Bollinger calls a Bollinger Head Fake. What's a Bollinger Head Fake? A Bollinger Head Fake is a rapid reversal in price direction that most often occurs after a Squeeze, usually on high volume and at a Bollinger Band. As of now the Weekly Bands have started to squeeze and the bottom band has been tagged. The expectations in the next few weeks is to see a fast reversal of the price action back above the 1W midband at 48.8-49K towards either 55K or 63-64K (ATH) preferably before the Monthly candle closes on May 31st as shown using the 2017 blue fractal. Once fulfilled then I believe we can see Bitcoin grind up towards the ATH by August and have a last bull run towards 250K+ by Dec 2021 NOTE: Should the Bollinger Head fake fail to reverse the trend in the next 2 weeks and the Weekly Bollinger Bands Squeeze resolves to the downside with a sell off below 28K (or below the bottom bollinger band), then I expect a much longer Bear Market at hand which would test the previous top as support at 20Ks. Happy trading! Carl M.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinGuru
8
BTC till next halving 2024in 2017 3times ATH13 was in mid June now we had it already in the end of Feb... bubble in Jan and Feb are again but in different sizes of previous ATH, now we can expect at least 1 bubble till June and 2 or 3 bubbles in 2nd halfyear 2021... now critical is 38k level not 42... just have a look at weekly and you can clearly see all Supports and Resistances... what is interesting that in 2017 green candles made more and more sharp shape and were longer every following week but now when we had almost 115k green candle in Feb it would mean that 30k W1 candles might be possible what is insane ic could leat to 95k in April and than 114 or 133 or 152k in June and than something above 200k and possibly above 300-400k, just insane.... but when 60k was a 1tril then 300k mans 5 tril - its poossible but altcoins would probably another 5tril? ETH would be 20k??? ...... but its hard to predict anything
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SunnyMorning
1
BTC Projection based on 2017 historical data and halving This idea shows the two ways BTC could go from here. It is based on the fundamental that we are on a cyclical trend with BTC based around halvings. The red projection shows a comparison against 2017 Nov-2018 Jan timeframe shifted to match 2020 Dec-2021 Feb. I am overall bullish on the market but I think the next week will be the deciding factor. The divergence from the 21 day EMA is going to be a key player as an indicator here. Also, the false flag/dead cat bounce which we saw in 2017 could catch a lot of people off guard if we see the same thing this year. If we follow the red trend line I will be liquidating at the second peak. This is just for me and my risk management and not to be considered financial advice. The green projection shows the potential for this to just be the beginning of the bull market. We dropped below the 21 day EMA on the 1 day timeframe back in January. If we have a similar move then I'd expect the projection to follow the green lines and onto 70K and beyond. What do you think? Do you think we're going into a bear market and following the same pattern as 2017?
by akibablade
2
XRP will start rising once BTC is at 20kHi dear XRP fellows, who are waiting for this coin to break out. If we look at XRP's price history, we can clearly see the very strong correlation with BTC's price rises. I think we are now where we were in late 2016. XRPBTC then started rising, but as BTCUSD started nearing ATH levels at 1200 again, XRPBTC started declining again. I think it will be the same now. BTCUSD has broken the very important logarithmic resistance and will now in the course of the next months go towards 20k. At 20k it will encounter strong resistance and correct, and need a while for break through. Until then XRPBTC will have declined, but once BTC hits 20k, I strongly suspect that the first big XRPBTC push will happen. If XRPBTC can make new alltime highs, I am not sure. It will most likely go into the area of the previous top. It might do a double peak again like last time. The first one when BTC is at 20k, the second one at or shortly after BTC is at alltime high levels, so around 100k. For me, the XRPUSD target still remains valid at 20-50 USD plusminus. Considering that BTC will have a 10x higher market cap, this should be possible, but again only for a short time. It will be a sharp peak like last time. Bagholding XRP is no fun, so selling during that rally is strongly advisable :) Best of luck to everyone, finally it has started, what everyone has been waiting for since Dec 2017.
Long
by SebastianofMoon
15