BITCOIN's ultimate VIX bottom signal-Last time gave +100% profitBitcoin (BTCUSD) is attempting to make yet another green day, yesterday not only did it close above its 1D MA50 again but was also the 4th green day in the last 6. This attempt is showing that the trend is gradually shifting again towards long-term bullish but today we'll present to you another one, this time in relation to the Volatility Index (VIX).
BTC's (orange trend-line) recent rise is naturally on a negative correlation with VIX (red trend-line) which is currently pulling back after it's most aggressive spike since the COVID flash-crash (March 2020).
Their ratio BTCUSD/VIX (blue trend-line) made a very interesting contact with the Higher Lows trend-line that has been holding since the August 24 2015 Low, which was the bottom of the 2014 Bear Cycle. Since then it made Higher Lows on March 16 2020, August 05 2024 and the most recent, April 07 2025. Every time it was a bottom indication and a massive rally followed. The 'weakest' of all was the previous one, which 'only' gave a +105% rise approximately. Based on that, there is no reason not to expect BTC to hit at least $150k by the end of this Bull Cycle.
Do you think that's a plausible target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC-M
Trump's Crypto Policies Drive Bitcoin Dominance to New HighsSince President Trump's inauguration, Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has steadily climbed from around 55% to over 63%, reflecting a significant shift in market dynamics. This rise is largely attributed to the U.S. government's strategic accumulation of Bitcoin, including the establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve funded by seized assets. Such initiatives have redirected capital from altcoins to Bitcoin, reinforcing its dominance in the cryptocurrency market.
BTC Dominance (BTC.D) is hovering at a critical resistance zone between 63% and 64%. A breakout above 65% could signal increased capital flow into Bitcoin, potentially pushing its price down to $75K or even $55K, while altcoins may underperform. Conversely, a rejection at this level might indicate the onset of an altcoin season. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $85K, awaiting a catalyst to determine its next significant move.
Bitcoin Dominance Ascending Channel and Altseason (1W Log)CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D has been in a clean uptrend inside an ascending channel for over 2 years.
• The midline has consistently acted as a magnet, but BTC.D has recently detached from it and might be headed for another retest of the upper boundary.
• Unless major macro catalysts intervene, I expect no notable changes until the 72-73% key area, the same zone that triggered 2021's altseason.
Regarding altseason, this cycle isn't like previous ones. With millions of tokens today, dilution is real, and a full-blown altseason where everything pumps seems unlikely.
Instead, I expect selective rotation into quality projects, and that might actually make it easier to find real outperformance.
Secure ptofits of LONG📊 BTC Daily Chart – In-Depth Analysis (as of Apr 15, 2025)
🔍 Overview
You're holding a long position from below $80K, still active but now at a +5-6% gain, while TP is placed around 88.3K, close to a key resistance and trendline confluence. Let's break this all down and answer your core question: Is it wise to secure profits now even if TP hasn't been reached?
⚒️ BitcoinMF PRO & Fisher Confirmation
The BitcoinMF PRO indicator has been delivering precise entries/exits—highlighted with green "Long" and red "Short" tags.
Your current active long was marked by BitcoinMF PRO near the lower end of the descending channel with Fisher Transform at a local bottom, signaling an extremely oversold bounce zone.
The Fisher is curling up from a "super low" region, meaning it is entering mid-zone. This reduces risk-reward from here for new longs—good reason to lock partial profits.
📉 Technical Chart Structure Breakdown
🔺 Linear Regression Channels:
BTC is now trading near the top of the smaller descending red channel, nearing rejection territory.
Also, it’s approaching the bottom half of the broader dark blue ascending channel = resistance cluster zone.
🔁 Elliott Wave Structure (Possibly Ending Wave 4)
This looks like a potential 3 → 4 → 5 wave structure unfolding.
Wave 3 likely bottomed near $71K- FWB:73K , and this long is likely part of Wave 4 retracement. If correct, Wave 5 may resume down again unless invalidated above $88.3K.
🔸 Fibonacci Watch:
0.5 Fib retracement from recent swing high to low is around $84.2K-$85.5K—you’re sitting on it right now.
0.618 Fib confluence is ~$88.5K, right where TP is set. That zone is statistically known for rejections. This is another reason to secure a chunk of profit now.
📉 Volume & Sentiment
Volume is weak on this rally, indicating a lack of conviction.
Fear & Greed Index (live: ⚠️ around 72 – greed zone) is starting to lean hot.
Market sentiment is optimistic, and price is hovering just below known short zones.
🏦 Whale Activity, Exchange Inflows & CME Gap
Whale wallets have shown mild accumulation at lower levels (~ FWB:73K -$75K), but no aggressive buying up here.
Exchange inflows are increasing slightly – suggesting some may be getting ready to sell into this strength.
✅ CME Gap around $66K is still unfilled. Historically 90% of gaps fill. Keep that in your long-term radar.
🔄 Long vs Shorts Ratio (Bybit + Binance)
On both Bybit and Binance, Longs > Shorts by ~58/42 – minor imbalance. Suggests majority is positioned long, slightly raising correction risk.
✅ Final Strategic Take
❗ Why You Should Secure Profits Now:
Price is at a resistance confluence zone (Fib + LR + sentiment).
The move has already run +5-6%, and even if price doesn’t touch TP at 88.3K, greed could erase that unrealized profit quickly.
If this is just Wave 4, the next move could be a final push down to $70K or lower (Wave 5).
Volume divergence + rising inflows = risk is increasing.
Locking at least 50-70% now is smart trader psychology. You can always re-enter.
🔮 Most Probable Next Move: 6.8 / 10 – Mild Up, Then Pullback
BTC has 69% probability of testing $86.5K–$88.5K, but rejection is very likely there.
After that, we could see a pullback to $80K–$82K.
Extreme bullish continuation (above $90K) currently has <20% probability unless macro/Fed/etc. change.
📌 Action Recommendation:
📈 Secure partial profits immediately.
🧠 Move stop-loss to breakeven or slightly in profit to protect the rest.
🛑 Avoid FOMO-ing into new longs now – let the chart confirm breakout first.
🧠 Ancient Wisdom:
In Pirkei Avot (Ethics of the Fathers), Rabbi Tarfon said:
“The day is short, the work is great… and the reward is much, but the Master is insistent.”
In trading terms: The market doesn’t owe you your TP. Secure reward when the work is done. Don’t overstay your welcome.
for more follow links in profile
Bullish bounce off pullback support?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has bounced off the pivot and could potentially rise to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 83,260.07
1st Support: 80,469.31
1st Resistance: 88,484.86
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bitcoin: Normal Bullish vs Super Bullish +Altcoins Market UpdateBitcoin is bullish right now but not super-bullish. What needs to happen for Bitcoin to turn super-bullish is the question that I am getting through email from my most ardent followers. Why this question?
Some people don't like to take much risk. They are ok with some risk but not big risk. Buying early can produce great profits if things turn out ok, but it can also produce huge losses if the market makes a surprise rejection and turns the other way.
People like us like to catch the bottom but this comes with the risk of getting whipsaw. There can be several drops at the lows before a bearish wave ends. Without the proper risk management, position management, trying to catch the bottom can result in loses. Easy to see and understand.
Bitcoin is normal bullish above $80,000. Bitcoin is strongly bullish above $85,000.
This is still a great buy because Bitcoin is trading below $90,000. Anything below $100,000 is great for the long-term. Now, for Bitcoin to turn super-bullish we need a break and close above $88,700 on the daily timeframe. Give or take two days above this level to add strength. A stronger confirmation comes with the weekly close. If you want Bitcoin super-bullish, get it when the $88,000 resistance is gone.
To me, Bitcoin is already bullish confirmed. The correction is over and has been over for an entire week. This is only the start. Slow and steady growth. Bullish momentum will grow. Maximum speed will start in May 2025, late, and then up, up and up. It will be a long ride and it is likely to extend.
» Altcoins Market Update
The Altcoins market is great right now. Some pairs are finally starting to break bullish and moving above resistance. Support has been confirmed for weeks and in some cases for months. But there was been some sideways on the low but now bullish action is starting to show up. This is just the start. In a matter of days, some pairs will be growing between 30-80% in a single day. Once these move, they tend to retrace a little bit before additional growth. Do not try to catch those, it is a futile effort. Look now for the ones trading low with good signals and charts then buy and hold. You will do great.
Right now a diversification strategy can work wonders because there just too many pairs. The market will take a long time to grow. The market will take a while to unravel.
In the past, long gone past, 2016 and so on, the market would alternate between pairs every few months. As the market grew, the period between each bullish wave continued to extend, while in the past we would see strong action every few months, now it happens only once or twice per year. As the market grows, it takes longer and longer for money to move around and reach every sector. This bull market will be long.
It is likely that this bull market will extend because of so many pairs. There is not enough time to lift everything up in just 6 months. This is good news, it would be better to have a 2-3 years strong-long bull market rather than 6 months. The longer it last, the more time we have to adapt, learn and grow.
Since it is inevitable to make mistakes, the longer the bull market lasts, the more chances we will have to apply everything that we learn live every day. It will be great.
It is confirmed, everything will grow. By everything I mean the biggest portion of the market, choose wisely because a pair can start growing tomorrow while another one can start growing within 5-6 months. Both go up, but one do so in early 2025 while another one can grow in late 2025. Which one are you holding? Diversification right now is a strong move across the Altcoins. When Bitcoin grows 20%, some Altcoins will grow by 300%. Strong projects can grow between 80-150%.
There are many ways to approach the market. Do what works for you. I am wishing you success.
Thank you for reading.
Consider hitting boost and leaving a comment if you enjoy the content.
Namaste.
Based on the BTC/USDT 4-hour chart:Current Price Levels: Bitcoin is currently trading around 85,269.35 USDT.
Support and Resistance:
Support Zones: A crucial support zone marked in green suggests strong buying interest between 80,000 and 81,000 USDT.
Resistance: The upper trend line indicates resistance; if Bitcoin can break it, it could target levels close to 88,000 USDT.
Bullish Case: A breakout above the upper trend line could lead to an upward rally towards 88,000 USDT or above.
Bearish Case: If the price breaks below the support zone, a downward move toward 75,000 USDT can be expected.
Monitor the trade closely to see how it reacts around these crucial levels. Based on the price action, adjust your strategy accordingly. Feel free to ask if you have further questions or need analysis on specific indicators!
If you found this analysis helpful, hit the Like button and share your thoughts or questions in the comments below. Your feedback matters!
Thanks for your support!
DYOR. NFA
$BTC is facing a systemic threat—and it's becoming real.This post is a follow-up to my highly controversial idea from last year:
Back then, many laughed and called me a fool. But it's happening:
Forbes: "Quantum Leap or False Alarm? Bitcoin’s Fate in the Quantum Age"
www.forbes.com
CoinDesk: "Bitcoin Developer Proposes Hard Fork to Protect BTC from Quantum Threats"
www.coindesk.com
Key points:
Bitcoin is not digital gold. It can be hacked.
We have about 5 years to move to quantum-resistant encryption.
This requires a hard fork, forcing all BTC holders to move their coins to a new wallet.
Those who don’t move their coins? They’re burned—permanently lost.
How?
Quantum computers can use a “long-range attack” to derive private keys from public keys. In early BTC transactions, public keys were visible—around 2 million BTC are at risk.
Consequences:
Two chains will coexist: BTC (legacy) and BTC (quantum-safe).
SegWit adoption took 2 years. Expect similar delays.
2 million BTC could be lost forever (≈10% of supply).
Satoshi’s coins? Gone.
We'll have BTC, BTCQ, and BCH side by side.
Why would whales support this?
Removes inactive or lost coins
Doubles their holdings across chains
Protects their assets from being hacked
Is this bullish? Should you buy BTC?
Not sure. This is a systemic risk. The panic from Bitcoin developers says it all.
I warned you. Read my original post. Follow me to stay ahead of what’s next.
📉 Potential consequences
Bitcoin chain split: Legacy chain vs. upgraded chain (like BTC/BCH but even messier).
Burned coins: Could cause a deflationary shock if millions of old coins become inaccessible.
Temporary loss of trust: Confusion = market panic. Price volatility could spike.
Regulatory scrutiny: Governments could use this as an excuse to push CBDCs or new crypto laws.
New “Bitcoin” brand wars: Just like the BCH/BSV split, there may be competing narratives.
Can the developers fix this problem?
Yes, developers can upgrade Bitcoin to be quantum-safe.
But the real danger lies in:
Coordination failure
Loss of user trust
A messy migration
Potential devaluation of old BTC
Legal and branding chaos
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoNews #QuantumComputing #CryptoRisk #HardFork #Blockchain #CryptoSecurity #SatoshiNakamoto #CryptoWarning #DYOR #Altcoins #BTCFork #BitcoinUpdate #QuantumThreat
Another Dump Session for Bitcoin?#bitcoin #btc price has formed an ascending wedge after 75K capitulation. As seen in the chart, #btcusd broke down this wedge' s support line and now consolidating under it.
This breakdown was bearish. CRYPTOCAP:BTC must reclaim at least 89K to avoid incoming dump session.(The invalidation)
Also, the macro is still enigmatic nowadays. There' re no permanent recovery signs for trade wars. Unless the invalidation aids, BTC may see serious dumps in short term. Not financial advice. DYOR.
Do you think I'm joking ???Now that Bitcoin is returning to the cup-and-handle support, one can expect a strong pump up to 130k . it might happen.
⚠️ Disclaimer
Blockchain X has artificial intelligence technology that can make smart trades, allowing you to continuously make profits in the crazy world of cryptocurrency. Come and try it!
Give me some energy !!
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⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
bitcoin enters a hyper-parabolic state to 753kgm,
this was initially a private post,
but i've decided to open it up to the public, for the people.
---
interest rates are collapsing. not slowly. not in a controlled, measured descent. this is a freefall. the kind that rewrites economic history.
monetary debasement is inevitable. quantitative easing will accelerate, liquidity will flood the system, and the us dollar will plunge. this isn’t speculation. this is math.
and when that happens, the gates open. the largest alt season in history is not a possibility. it is an inevitability. this will be the kind of move that people will talk about for decades. portfolios multiplied beyond reason. valuations pushed to levels most can only dream of.
the everything bubble will expand beyond comprehension. people will call it unsustainable. they will call it madness. but madness is where the greatest opportunities are born.
most won’t be ready. they will hesitate. they will overthink. they will sell too early,
watching in disbelief as the market leaves them behind.
we will not.
🌙
---
tp - 753k
BTC - Critical Juncture at channel and liquidity levelThe 1-hour chart reveals BTCUSDT navigating crucial price territory, with immediate focus on the 85,000.0 to 88,000.0 range. The market shows subtle but important movements, with current price action hovering near 84,260.1 after testing higher levels.
Key observations from the chart:
The volume profile indicates weakening momentum as price approaches the 88,000 resistance zone. Of particular note is the cluster of activity around 84,260.1 , which now serves as immediate support. The liquidity pockets at both 85,000 and 88,000 create clear reference points for potential breakouts or rejections.
Critical levels to monitor:
Upper resistance sits firmly at 88,000.0 , where previous reactions have occurred. Strong support emerges at 84,260.1 , with additional floors at 82,000.0 and the psychological 80,000.0 level. The 0.76% price change marker suggests some volatility brewing beneath the surface.
Trading considerations focus on two scenarios:
A hold above 84,260.1 could signal strength and potential retest of higher levels. However, failure to maintain this support may trigger moves toward 82,000.0 . The tight 0.04% to 0.02% bands indicate potential compression before the next directional move.
Market structure currently favors cautious optimism, but requires confirmation above 85,000.0 for stronger conviction. The diminishing volume at higher levels suggests some exhaustion, making proper position sizing essential.
Final Note: These price levels represent significant psychological barriers. Traders should watch for volume spikes and candle closes beyond these markers for confirmation. Always employ strict risk management in these potentially volatile conditions.
Disclaimer: Market conditions change rapidly. This analysis represents one interpretation of current price action and should not be considered financial advice.
bitcoin dips below 60kbitcoin dips below 60k, but we're unfazed.
i see this playing out as we move into the depths of winter,,,
this crypto winter ❄️
why would this happen, you ask?
the answer is simple: a stop-loss raid.
a sharp wave 4 designed to shake out weak hands.
distribution may have already started, hypothetically speaking, but it'll take the rest of the year to unfold.
think of it like the jan 2021 -> april 2021 vibe, only on a slightly higher degree and timeframe.
---
take note of the highlighted wave 2's and wave 4's on my chart.
what i'm illustrating is "the law of alternation," which states:
if wave 2 is flat, wave 4 will be sharp, and vice versa.
all the wave 2's in this cycle have been flats,
so by design, all of our wave 4's are set to be sharps.
this fits neatly into the larger cycle:
sharp retracements triggered by over-leveraged positions,
yet consistently bought up thanks to strong demand.
with each sharp retracement, however, the upward moves become smaller,
as momentum gradually fades.
---
w4 target: below 60k
w5 target: between 150k-200k (conservatively).
---
ps. i have recently shared a much more bullish idea via:
BTC.D - Still in the ascending channelCRYPTOCAP:BTC.D remains firmly within its long-standing ascending channel. The recent “fake breakout” below the channel has been invalidated as dominance swiftly returned to the channel, showing a strong reaction and confirming the channel’s validity.
This suggests:
✅ Bullish Implication for BTC: Bitcoin is likely to continue gaining dominance in bullish moves, outpacing altcoins in performance.
✅ Bearish Impact on Altcoins: In downturns, altcoins are expected to experience sharper declines compared to Bitcoin.
Traders should monitor this channel as a key indicator for market behavior, especially for Bitcoin and altcoin strategies.
Bitcoin NEoWave Analysis Based on 6M Cash DataCash Data 6M
In the 6-month cash data for Bitcoin, it appears that a Running Neutral Triangle is forming and we are currently in wave-D of this triangle. Based on the previous mid-term Bitcoin analysis, as long as Bitcoin’s price remains above $70,000 there is potential for the price to rise to $150,000. Therefore, wave-D of the neutral triangle could expand and grow larger.
Until wave-D is complete, we cannot accurately predict the endpoint of wave-E( The label-E shown in the image is not precise and will likely change) However, after wave-D concludes, the price will experience at least a 50% correction to complete wave-E of the triangle, followed by a strong upward move in Bitcoin.
The analysis will be updated once wave-D is complete.
Good luck
NEoWave Chart
Bitcoin Reversal After Fake Bullish Divergencehello guys.
Fake Bullish Divergence:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at the bottom shows a bullish divergence, but the price action invalidated it — signaling a "fake divergence".
This could trap early long positions and fuel further downside.
Broken Trendline Support:
A significant ascending trendline support has been broken, indicating weakening bullish momentum.
The recent bounce back seems corrective rather than impulsive.
Price Projection:
An arrow points downward toward the horizontal support around $69,149, hinting at a possible drop in price.
This level coincides with the intersection of the mid-channel support line and horizontal price structure.
Channel Structure:
The overall chart operates within a large ascending channel.
A revisit of the lower bound of the channel aligns with the projected price target.
-------------------------------------
Conclusion:
Despite the recent rebound, Bitcoin is showing signs of weakness due to a fake bullish RSI divergence and a broken ascending trendline. The technical setup suggests a potential decline toward the $69,000–71,000 support zone before any meaningful recovery can occur. Caution is advised for bullish traders until the price confirms a stronger support or reversal signal.
87-88K seems natural targetMorning folks,
So, our 80-85K trade was nice. Now we think that it is not time for big trades, mostly because many markets, and especially US bonds and dollar are overextended. That's why for a few sessions we're focused on near standing targets.
BTC daily chart shows strong resistance around 87-89K area, which is also might be the neckline of potential reverse H&S. We already talked about this previously.
It is the 2nd reason why it would be better to focus on something close. Thus, on 1H chart setup might be looking like you see on the chart. We hope that 83K support will hold. Otherwise, this trade has no sense, because stop placement below 81K support makes risk/reward ratio unattractive.
Thus, supposedly 87-88K is an upside target. And we hope that BTC will stay above 83K.
BITCOIN's 1D MA50 Flip = GREEN LIGHT for the NEXT BIG PUMP!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) closed Saturday's 1D candle above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in more than 2 months (since February 03)! The 1D MA50 got tested and rejected the price 6 times since then. At the same time, the price marginally broke above the Lower Highs trend-line that started on the January 20 All Time High (ATH).
This is the most powerful short-term bullish combination as it was staged on a Bullish Divergence 1D RSI, which is on Higher Lows against the bearish trend's Lower Lows. Technically such break-outs immediate Target is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which now happens to be just below the $100k mark at $99500. In not such a coincidental fashion, that is he last Resistance level that run through February 05 - 21 before BTC's strong tariff sell-off.
So do you think the 1D MA50 break is the green light for a $99500 rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin BTC price analysisThis is approximately the roadmap we have "imagined" for the coming weeks for the movement of the CRYPTOCAP:BTC price:
1️⃣ The most optimistic scenario is that the OKX:BTCUSDT price stays above $76100 - 77100, which means that the “bottom” has finally been found, and we can organize at least a rebound to $94k.
2️⃣ Not a pleasant scenario, but not the worst either, is another update of the local lows of #Bitcoin to $71100 and from there a rebound to the above-mentioned $76100-77100 zone, where we will have to "looking out" again: where to go next...
3️⃣ The most pessimistic, and maybe the most realistic scenario in times of total uncertainty, when it is not clear what the "rusty can" will wake up with in. ✊
All market participants will delay their "buying" decisions as much as possible until it becomes clear whether the Fed will cut the rate or not. The next FOMC meeting is on 07.05.25.
To understand what will happen to altcoins during this time, you need to at least monitor and analyze the #BTC.D and #USDT.D indicators, which we do daily in our reviews in...
✍️ It is your right, if not your duty, to follow this plan or make your own adjustments!)
And we will be happy to read and see your charts, with your forecasts for the near future in the comments below the idea.
Trade Analysis for Week 16 (14Apr25 onwards)Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Over here I will be sharing my analysis for this week.
Mainly On:
EURUSD
EURAUD
EURNZD
BTC
USDSGD
Moving forward I will separate both the Trade review and Coming week trade analysis for easy viewing!
-- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! --
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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