Are you waiting for Altcoins to pump?BTC Dominance (BTC.D) hasn't dropped yet, and many of you might be losing patience. But as I see it, we won't see the bull run we're hoping for unless BTC.D falls below 57%. The big question is: how long can it hold at this level?
My advice: wait until it drops closer to 49%. Keep an eye on whether it breaks through this resistance. If it doesn't, expect BTC.D to find support at this level and continue its dominance.
I’ll share one more chart that’s crucial for the upcoming bull run, so make sure to follow me for the updates!
BTC-M
GOLD (XAUUSD) Extraordinary SELL ComingGold (XAU/USD) Trading Signal and Analysis
Current Price: 2,743 USD
Sentiment: Bullish momentum continues despite potential volatility linked to macroeconomic factors, including Trump's return and increased demand for safe-haven assets by financial institutions.
Technical Outlook:
The price is currently testing a high zone between 2,743 and 2,751, approaching the upper boundary of its recent bullish range.
A retracement is anticipated, targeting at least 30% of Fibonacci retracement, aligning with a move toward the lower band of the Bollinger Band.
Signal:
Sell Zone: Enter short positions between 2,743 and 2,751.
Target: Aim for a price level near 2,670 on higher timeframes.
Stop-Loss: Set a stop-loss according to your portfolio risk tolerance. Position it slightly above 2,760 to account for potential breakouts.
Analysis and Strategy:
Macro Factors: Bullish pressure is driven by demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. However, retracement is expected due to market corrections and profit-taking.
Technical Indicators:
Anticipated correction aligns with Fibonacci 30% retracement.
Bollinger Bands suggest a possible pullback towards the lower band as price reverts to the mean.
Support:
Support Zones: 2,670, with a minor level at 2,680.
Resistance Zones: 2,751–2,760.
Recommendation: Use position sizing and stop-loss placement that align with your portfolio's risk management strategy. Adjust take-profit targets if momentum extends the retracement.
Please show support by following, comment, like and share.
Is BTC ready to explode or should we brace for a deeper drop?The pressure is mounting! Are we about to witness a massive breakout, or should we prepare for a deeper correction? The BTCUSDT chart is coiling into a elliott pattern, a classic bullish setup—but remember, trading is never guaranteed, and the market loves to test us! Here’s the full breakdown of what we’re seeing right now:
💎#BTC previously enjoyed a strong rally and made new ATH but due to #TRUMP not mentioning any words for crypto we have seen a massive sell pressure.
💎But according to elliott wave count, we are heading towards 3rd impulsive wave targeting 120-125k .
💎After that we can see a slight pullback making a 4th corrective wave
💎And then we can see #Bitcoin to final All-Time-High making at 130k level most probably
Stay patient, and always wait for confirmation before taking any action. Discipline is the key to long-term success!
ALT/USD – Key Technical UpdateRecent Price Action:
ALT has seen a significant decline, with bulls looking for support amid intensified bearish pressure. The recent drop highlights vulnerability, but key support levels below could provide a foundation for recovery.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support Levels:
$0.08500: Immediate support zone where bulls are attempting to stabilize.
$0.07810: A prior swing low with historical buying interest.
$0.07150, $0.07000, $0.06650: Critical levels marking past swing lows. A deeper move into these zones could attract aggressive buying, especially near $0.06650, aligning with August 5th’s swing low.
Resistance Levels:
$0.08790: Near-term resistance likely to cap immediate recovery efforts, with confluence from recent bearish gaps.
$0.11131: A stronger resistance zone near January 17th’s swing high, which aligns with prior bearish momentum.
Market Dynamics:
Token Unlock Impact:
The upcoming Saturday token unlock is expected to increase supply, potentially exacerbating downside pressure in the short term. However, following the release, the market could stabilize, setting the stage for a relief rally as bearish momentum wanes.
Bearish Gaps:
Resistance from daily bearish gaps adds confluence near $0.08790 and $0.11131, making these levels critical to monitor during any rally.
Outlook:
Bullish Scenario:
A successful defense of $0.08500 or a deeper dip into the $0.07150–$0.06650 range, followed by strong buying momentum, could lead to a relief rally. Clearing $0.08790 would open the door to a move toward $0.11131 or higher.
Bearish Scenario:
A sustained break below $0.06650 would invalidate key supports, exposing ALT to further downside risks, with no clear structural floor below.
Conclusion:
The focus remains on $0.08500 as the immediate support zone, while Saturday's token unlock is likely to influence price action significantly. A relief rally may emerge post-unlock, targeting $0.08790 and possibly $0.11131 if the bearish gaps are filled. For now, caution is advised as the market navigates increased supply pressure.
BTC CMEAfter touching the weekly BISI, the price dropped behind the stops in the shorts, the daily BIs became an inversion and gave support to the price without pushing it down.
If this is a Екгьз rally, we will see how the price will react within 4 hours, a selling pattern is formed, there is inefficiency, a block of refusal is possible, which can lower the price to 0.5 range
Will this move be to fill the weekly BISI again or will it continue to send orders up?
Now those who entered long have opened positions, I think the price will follow their stops
Will KEYUSDT Bounce or Break? The Market's Crucial Moment!The crypto market often mirrors a roller coaster, and BYBIT-KEYUSDT.P is no exception. Currently priced at 0.0007485, the asset has plummeted 94.43% from its all-time high of 0.0134455 in March 2024, but it’s up 24.34% from its absolute low set just a month ago. Indicators like the RSI (40.58) and MFI (36.56) suggest the market is nearing oversold territory, while a narrowing gap between the MA50 (0.00092) and the current price highlights potential for a technical breakout.
Recent patterns reveal an intense struggle between buyers and sellers. The dominance of increased sell volumes over the past sessions has led many traders to question: Is this the calm before a bullish reversal, or the start of another leg down? With resistance looming at 0.001082, all eyes are on whether the asset can gather momentum to reclaim lost ground or if sellers will tighten their grip.
For traders seeking action, the stage is set. Will you capitalize on this key juncture, or watch as the market decides its next move? Either way, the opportunity is ripe.
Roadmap: The Story of BYBIT-KEYUSDT.P Through Patterns
1. January 7, 2025 – “Sell Volumes Max” (Direction: Sell)
The market opened at 0.001194 and closed at 0.0011535, showcasing intense selling pressure with a low of 0.00114. This pattern indicated a shift towards bearish sentiment. Interestingly, the price in the subsequent pattern aligned with this direction, confirming that sellers were in control. The next few bars validated the forecast, as the price continued its downward journey, further solidifying this bearish signal.
2. January 8, 2025 – “VSA Buy Pattern Extra 1st” (Direction: Buy)
As expected from this pattern, the market attempted a bullish comeback. Opening at 0.000993, the price initially struggled but closed higher at 0.000972 after testing a low of 0.000959. This was a clear move towards recovery, but it fell short of breaking significant resistance levels. Confirmation arrived as the subsequent pattern reflected further buying pressure, proving that bulls were regaining some footing.
3. January 10, 2025 – “Increased Buy Volumes” (Direction: Buy)
Here’s where things got exciting. The price opened at 0.0009775 and climbed to a close of 0.001068, rallying decisively after hitting a low of 0.000945. This pattern screamed bullish energy, with a strong confirmation seen in the subsequent bars. Buyers capitalized on this move, pushing the price to test higher resistance levels.
4. January 11, 2025 – “Buy Volumes Takeover” (Direction: Sell)
A shift in momentum was clear as the market opened at 0.0011125 but closed lower at 0.001072, signaling a potential fake-out or exhaustion of bullish power. The next bars saw prices aligning with the forecasted sell direction, validating this pattern’s call for caution.
5. January 17, 2025 – “Sell Volumes Max” (Direction: Sell)
The market turned bearish once again, with an opening price of 0.0010495 and a sharp close at 0.000944. Hitting a low of 0.000896, this pattern proved its worth as the next bars continued downward, showing that the selling wave had not yet lost steam.
Key Takeaways:
The roadmap reflects that bearish patterns like "Sell Volumes Max" consistently aligned with market direction, highlighting a reliable trend-following signal.
Bullish patterns struggled to break through key resistance levels but showed potential for short-term trades.
Momentum shifted between bulls and bears, creating pockets of opportunity for nimble traders.
Technical & Price Action Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
Here’s the breakdown of the make-or-break levels for BYBIT-KEYUSDT.P. These zones are where the action happens, and if they don’t hold, they’ll likely flip into resistance. Keep your eyes peeled for these hot spots!
Support Levels
0.000602 – The absolute low of the asset, touched recently. If this level gives way, expect it to become a solid resistance. 0.001082 – A critical support zone. If it doesn’t hold, bulls are likely to face a steep climb. 0.004257 – Not just support, but a psychological barrier. Failure here could turn it into a strong ceiling.
Resistance Levels
0.001082 – Doubling as support, but if the price can’t break back above, it’s game over for bulls at this level. 0.001476 – The next stop on the way up. If rejected, expect bearish vibes to dominate. 0.00538 – A major obstacle for any meaningful upside momentum.
Powerful Support Levels
0.004257 – All eyes are here. Losing this zone would spell trouble, as it’s one of the last defenses. 0.0057895 – A bounce from here could set up a strong rally, but a breakdown flips it into a bear’s playground. 0.0067375 – The line in the sand for bulls. Holding this is critical for regaining confidence.
Powerful Resistance Levels
No current data here, but watch for powerful zones to emerge once the price climbs closer to previous highs.
Pro Tip:
If these levels don’t hold, don’t panic. Just flip your mindset – these same levels will likely become strong resistance zones, perfect for fade plays or short setups. Stay sharp and trade what you see!
Concept of Rays: Trading Strategies and Scenarios
Let’s dive into the mechanics of trading using Fibonacci Rays, the dynamic levels built on precise mathematical principles. These rays define boundaries of movement channels and provide high-probability setups for trading key price interactions.
How Rays Work in Trading
Fibonacci Rays define zones of interaction, creating a system of dynamic support and resistance levels.
Price movements tend to follow rays, and interaction often signals whether to expect a reversal or continuation.
Dynamic factors like Moving Averages (MA50, MA100, MA200) further confirm key zones, enhancing accuracy.
The strategy: Wait for price to interact with a ray and exhibit clear movement in the direction of the ray, targeting the next ray.
Two Trading Scenarios
Optimistic Scenario :
The price reacts positively to support rays and continues upward, interacting with ascending Fibonacci Rays and moving averages. Targets align with resistance rays.
Entry: After interaction with Support 0.001082 and confirmation from MA50 at 0.00092, enter long.
First Target: Resistance at 0.001476 (next ray level).
Second Target: Powerful resistance near 0.00538 (further ray projection).
Third Target: Upper limit of movement at 0.0067375 if momentum sustains.
Pessimistic Scenario :
Price fails to hold support rays and breaks below, aligning with descending Fibonacci Rays. Each broken ray acts as resistance for potential short setups.
Entry: After price breaks below 0.001082 and closes under MA50 and MA100.
First Target: Powerful support at 0.000602 (next ray level).
Second Target: Deep retracement towards 0.004257, now acting as resistance.
Third Target: Collapse towards absolute lows below 0.000602, if selling momentum dominates.
Dynamic Trading Ideas Based on Ray Interactions
Bounce from MA50 and Ray Support: If price interacts with 0.00092 and shows strong buying signals, go long towards the next ray.
Break and Retest of Resistance Rays: If 0.001476 is broken and retested with confirmation, aim for 0.00538.
Sell-off after Ray Break: If price breaches 0.001082, wait for a retest and short towards 0.000602.
Range Trading Between Rays: Play the levels between 0.001476 and 0.00538 during a sideways market, watching for clear rejection or breakout signals.
Key Points for Execution
Always wait for interaction with rays and dynamic confirmation (e.g., MA alignment).
Move stops to breakeven after hitting the first target.
Targets are sequential: from ray to ray, ensuring flexibility in both scenarios.
Trade Smart and Flexible : Let the rays guide your entries and exits while keeping an eye on volume and momentum. Remember, every ray interaction is an opportunity!
Your Turn: Let’s Keep the Conversation Going!
Got questions or want to dive deeper into the analysis? Drop your thoughts in the comments below—I’m here to chat and explore with you. Don’t forget to Boost this idea and save it for later to track how the price respects my mapped levels. Watching these movements unfold is the essence of trading mastery!
By the way, my proprietary indicator handles all these rays and levels automatically, making the process seamless. If you’re curious about using it, feel free to reach out via private messages. Let’s discuss how it can become part of your trading toolkit.
Looking for custom analysis? I’m open to analyzing any asset you’re interested in. Some of it I share openly, but if you prefer a private breakdown tailored just for you, we can work something out. Trust me—these rays work across all markets, and I’d be happy to create a setup that fits your needs.
Finally, don’t miss out on future insights! Follow me here on TradingView, where I post all my updates and ideas. Your support and engagement keep this community thriving, and I can’t wait to hear your thoughts.
Let’s trade smart, stay connected, and grow together! 🚀
Bitcoin will have major correction again?It' s near clearly seen that #bitcoin #btc chart is in Wyckoff' s Distribution Schematic. While president takes place, #btcusd made the up thrust and then retraced. If CRYPTOCAP:BTC manages to make a new impulsive movement to record a new ATH soon, then this bearish bias will be postponed. Remember my posts in start of march 2024, i said same. A quick new ATH is the (temporary) invalidation, otherwise " welcome the new major correction." Not financial advice. DYOR.
Technical Analysis of XAUUSD Using Support and Resistance LevelsXAUUSD represents the price of gold (XAU) against the US dollar (USD). Its current price is 2724, and the target price is set at 2800. This suggests a bullish outlook, with an expected price increase of 76 points. The analysis is based on the "support and resistance" pattern, where the current price is rebounding from a strong support level. Support levels act as a price floor, where buying pressure typically overcomes selling pressure, preventing further decline. The strong support indicates high confidence among traders that the price will rise. A move toward the target of 2800 aligns with the historical price behavior near this level. Traders may monitor for confirmation signals, such as higher highs or increased volume, to validate the upward momentum. However, market conditions and external factors like economic data or geopolitical events could influence the pair’s movement. Proper risk management is essential.
BITCOIN The March effect is about to kick-inTrump's inauguration took place yesterday and that's perhaps the one event that the markets have been waiting for to kick-start the year without distractions. On today's analysis we go through every January of Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) final year of its Bull Cycles and present to you what we will call from now on 'The March effect'.
As you can see, the price action coming to those January months is fairly similar between that last 4 Cycles. The price finds Support below its 1D MA100 (green trend-line), then breaks above it and with that as its new Support, it rises towards January where it starts the first Consolidation Phase. After a new Low near (or on) the 1D MA100, the market resumes the uptrend and rise towards March where again it starts a second Consolidation Phase.
As a result, January - March during the Bull Cycle's final year deliver this incredibly bullish sequence and we can claim that the phenomenon has already started as January 13 2025 was a close enough test for the 1D MA100. We are expecting a March peak around $130k.
So do you think we will see the 'March effect' unfold once more and if yes is $130k a plausible target in your opinion? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
PEOPLE Reversal Setup at Channel Bottom | 100% Potential Return
BINANCE:PEOPLE/TETHERUSHTTPS - 4H TIMEFRAME 🎯
SETUP STRUCTURE:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
✦ ENTRY: $0.03578
✦ TARGET: $0.07380
✦ STOP LOSS: -3% Below Entry
✦ RISK:REWARD: 35:1
✦ TIMEFRAME: 4H
✦ POSITION TYPE: SWING TRADE
TECHNICAL CONFLUENCE:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. PRICE ACTION:
• Descending Channel Bottom Test
• Multiple Timeframe Support Zone
• Previous Strong Demand Area
2. MARKET STRUCTURE:
• 6-Month Downtrend Exhaustion
• Potential Double Bottom Formation
• Clear Volume Profile Support
3. KEY CATALYSTS:
• Oversold RSI Divergence
• High-Volume Accumulation Zone
• Strong Historical Support Level
TRADE MANAGEMENT:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
ENTRY STRATEGY:
• Scale in between $0.03578-$0.03600
• Initial position: 40% of total size
• Add on first confirmation: +30%
• Final add on trend confirmation: +30%
TAKE-PROFIT STRATEGY:
TP1: $0.05000 (25% of position)
TP2: $0.06200 (50% of position)
TP3: $0.07380 (25% of position)
INVALIDATION:
• Break below support with volume
• Loss of 4H market structure
• Failure to hold entry zone after 4H
RISK DISCLOSURE:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Trading involves substantial risk of loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and trade responsibly.
#USDT #TechnicalAnalysis #Trading #CryptoTrading #SwingTrading
Tags: @TradingView
#BNB /USDT Ready to launch upwards#BNB
The price is moving in a descending channel on the 1-hour timeframe and sticking to it well
We have a bounce from the lower limit of the descending channel, this support is at 670
We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to break, which supports the rise
We have a trend to stabilize above the moving average 100
Entry price 682
First target 696
Second target 710
Third target 730
Trading BTC with a Solid Plan Is Crucial for Success—Here’s Mine🌟 In this video, I share a trade idea along with my detailed trading plan and we highlight why a well-structured strategy is 🔑 key to success. Discover how to trade BTC Bitcoin 🪙 using a trend continuation approach while leveraging TradingView's powerful tools and features to gain a real edge in the markets. 🖥️✨
Here’s what we’ll cover:
📊 Trend Analysis: A top-down review of market direction to identify opportunities.
📈 Market Structure & Price Action: Key insights into how price moves and behaves.
🎯 Trade Planning: Using higher timeframe support and resistance levels to set stop loss and target points.
🛠️ TradingView Features: Practical tools to refine your analysis and boost efficiency.
This video is an in-depth guide to trading effectively with a proven strategy, enhanced by TradingView's unique capabilities. 🚀 Please remember, this is not financial advice. 📜
Bearish Bitcoin All 2025???Those little pushes you see now? They might be the last ones. Bitcoin could trend downward until 2026, with a potential slight reversal in October. The best part is that Altcoins, especially XRP, might take center stage and have their moment.
At first, I was projecting Bitcoin to hit 75k, but now, my target has shifted to 60k…possibly even 55k by 2026 before any new highs (125k). Let’s see how it plays out…I could be wrong. I’m holding BTC too so…🤷🏽♂️
ATCryptoScan - the issue with the BTCUSD rally...Overall, and fundamentally, Bullish on Crypto.
However, few things are red flagging...
A surprise sudden rally that appears to have ended yesterday with a long upper tail to close the daily candle in very bad shape. This candle itself shows the selling pressure, above the previous day down candlestick that is pretty much a Bearish Engulfing.
The recent reversal represents a double top (perhaps?), albeit there is a higher high; but for Crypto I would tend to disregard this due to volatile nature of the asset anyways. Price action also broke out of a decision box (purple) and broke back in again, typically expect to extrude the other (lower) side.
Meanwhile, the RoVD has tapered below zero although still green.
So, perhaps the projected path is still intact and BTCUSD is moving somewhat to expectations...
So aiming for Feb @75K...
Bitcoin - Lofty Promises, Disturbing Results: My Crypto Journey.I make no claim to know where Bitcoin is headed. All I know is my opinion on it, and my feelings about cryptocurrencies in general, especially how they've evolved over the years. My sense continues to tell me that things are very wrong with crypto, and that eventually it's going to fade into the uncomfortable past, a kind of failed experiment. Back in 2022, I thought that if it gets bigger and bigger, it's a general symptom of wealth concentration, exploitation, and mass delusion. I don't think this technology is beneficial to society, as it extracts both attention and resources from its participants. Unless, of course, you can manage to be one of those who profits and then turns their profits into material wealth and/or positive change.
Looking at my own personal timeline for my sentiment about crypto, let's see how I ended up here:
November, 2017 : I am out of college for over a year now. I've been working a tough sales job for a year and I'm beginning to get burned out. I hear about Bitcoin from a friend. "if you buy in at $10K, sell at $20k and double your money." I then learn about Bitcoin and think, well, things are pretty bleak in the world right now. I don't know what I'm doing with my life. What if the banks collapse and I'm left with nothing? Bitcoin seems like a viable alternative. I buy out of fear, around $13.8k. Then, I see my value go up. Greed takes over. I go down a rabbit hole, learning about altcoins such as XRP, XLM, and LTC. Even XRB, which later becomes Nano. What if any of these becomes the next Bitcoin?
January, 2018: I think that I should have just cashed out. I must have bought the top. But, what if it all comes back even stronger? I could be rich. I pull out part of my initial investment and watch the rest continue to spiral downwards. I quit my job out of burnout.
May, 2018: Bitcoin continues to make lower highs. I start working that crazy sales job again part-time, as I need the money while the bear market persists.
December, 2018: All hope seems lost. I quit my sales job, again out of burnout and deciding I don't want to do this the rest of my life. I'm 25 years old. Then, I decide to look for reasons price might go up again, which would also then save me from having to go back to work again. I could just be an artist full time. I get into TA, thinking that it's kind of like art. Instead of working on my actual art or writing as much as I want to, I create all sorts of trendlines and other visual and fundamental reasons crypto could come back even stronger than before. I prepare. I buy ETH around $100. I'm now posting regularly on TradingView. I start figuring out which coins I want to load up on for the next bull run.
April, 2019: The market is back. I'm pretty sure the bottom is in. I'm gonna make it. I continue to post about various cryptocurrencies on tradingview, although I begin to feel worried about altcoins. Will they survive through the next cycle?
October, 2019: The market is volatile. Bitcoin finally hits $10K again, though there's something strange going on. Is price being manipulated?
February, 2020: Things are starting to feel precarious. ETH has done better now, boosting my portfolio back towards break even for the first time. The COVID crash is immanent. I've decided on a career to pursue.
March, 2020: Panic. Markets are screwed. I'm going down with the ship. I'm too scared to buy more because everything feels apocalyptic.
September, 2020: I begin grad school. While working mostly from home and attending classes remotely, I have a lot of time on my hands to post crypto analysis. I want to invest more, but I have very little income as a student. I feel that price is about to explode upwards. However, in grad school I'm also learning a lot about systems and becoming more and more skeptical about whether crypto would bring about any positive change to financial systems.
February, 2021: ETH has broken all-time high. I'm in significant profit. I'm checking my portfolio all the time. Will the altcoins rally soon?
Spring - Summer 2021: There's a huge amount of dumping. What's going on here? Why does Elon Musk have so much influence over this market? I thought it was supposed to be decentralized. Tweets are having a huge effect on the market. Should I sell? No, I think it's just a correction. I'm right, at least for now.
December, 2021: I'm feeling pretty bullish. Bitcoin made a significant new all-time high. But, something is tingling underneath my skin. I can't quite shake it. What's going on with this LUNA coin? A number of things are starting to unravel in my mind. For example, El Salvador recently made Bitcoin legal tender, but the response was very tepid. It's not seeming very practical at all. If it's not a viable currency, then what is it? I think about Elon Musk. I think about Michael Saylor and his defrauding of investors during the dotcom boom. I allow the cognitive dissonance I've been experiencing completely take over.
January - February, 2022: My feelings culminate. I decide to let go of all my crypto, realizing that it's not playing out ideally how I'd hoped. Plus, I'm in significant profit now. The forces that have taken advantage and control in traditional markets and the broader economy have latched themselves onto the cryptocurrency market, where investors are easily exploitable. The Super Bowl happens. Crypto starts to feel more and more like a joke. Who is really profiting from all this? NFT's are also irking me.
May, 2022: I finish grad school. Terra LUNA collapses, shortly after I speculated it would. For the rest of the year, I feel validated in my feelings about crypto. FTX collapses later that year, and although in hindsight it marked the bottom of the bear market, I'm hopeful that people will stay far away from this market in years to come. I am optimistic about my own financial future, as I now have a stable career. Later in the year, I make some money day trading, but I eventually stop since it's distracting me from my work.
July, 2023: I continue with my new career in the mental health field. I'm 30 years old. XRP was deemed not a security when sold to retail investors, but a security when sold to initial institutional investors. I am disappointed in this outcome, as I disagree and believe many altcoins like XRP are clear securities. I'm glad to be paying less attention to the crypto market.
January, 2024: Against my speculation and to my disappointment, Bitcoin ETF's are approved. I stubbornly stay away from the market, believing the ETFs to be another cash grab and an opportunity for existing holders to cash out, particularly those whales who have been on the stablecoin side of things - the orchestrators behind USDD, USDT, etcetera.
August, 2024: Ripple is only fined a tiny fraction of the initial request by the SEC for selling unlicensed securities. This opens the floodgates for money to pour back into altcoins, and for more ETFs to eventually be created.
November, 2024: Bitcoin finally makes a significant new all-time high after Trump is re-elected. It had been consolidating for much of the year, seeming at times that it would break down and not push past its previous high.
January, 2025: Trump is back in office. There's volatility across the market. Many are hopeful that his presidency will bear fruit for crypto holders. Meanwhile, he creates his own meme tokens and profits enormously from them, not unlike the numerous crypto grifters from years past, the grifters that took hold of the market and told me to stay away. I feel upset that price went against my speculation, though also vindicated. Crypto is exactly what I realized it was. My opinion has not changed. It's just another bulky asset, though one where the corruption is far more transparent than it is in the world of traditional finance. Even though it's there for all to see, not much is being done about it. Typical, really, of this current era of deregulation and apathy. Michael Saylor continues to hoard more and more. It's just the plaything of the wealthy now. It's what some people always wanted Bitcoin to become, but the antithesis of what many thought it represented.
I'm happy with my career, and I feel good knowing I invested in myself and did not continue to chase cryptocurrencies. After all, it's better to be able to generate capital myself than wait for someone else to do it for me. It's a more certain future for me, with much less speculation. I'm also able to pay off everything from grad school with my profits from the last bull market.
Bitcoin active addresses have not grown since 2017. studio.glassnode.com
It is hoarding, and hoarding through custodians. Plus, those who were already into it just kept buying. A few left entirely. And a few wealthy players began accumulating.
Now for a little TA:
This is the structure I'm looking at for Bitcoin. Failure to push back above that orange trendline has resulted in a rejection so far. This chart should give an idea as to the various extremes price can take over the coming days/weeks:
This is the longer term BLX chart, showing diminishing returns curved trendlines. If Bitcoin continues to follow this shape, the peak could be limited to $160-170K if reached this year. That is, if it has not already hit the top.
The bottom of this structure is comfortably at a major level - near $30k.
This bullish structure would need to break down to confirm a bearish period:
Right now, the chart LOOKS bullish, but it's important to pay attention to the other signals, the other things going on behind the scenes. Public perception is important as well. The monthly chart appears bullish until the 9 EMA (near $80k now) is lost. The ultimate oscillator continues to show a longer term bearish divergence:
The weekly chart can look like a tweezer top with a failed high if price cannot push back above $108k later this week.
If that push up is successful, I think price can rally up towards $160k before profit taking begins in real earnest again.
Let's see what happens!
Thank you for going on this journey with me, especially if you've followed me since the earlier days. As always, this post represents my personal opinion and is in no way intended as financial advice.
-Victor Cobra
BITCOIN This is what followed Trump's previous inaugurationBitcoin / BTCUSD appears to be repeating almost the exact same pattern of Trump's 2016 election win.
The chart on the right shows that a Bull Flag set the stage for the Nov 8th 2016 elections, after which the price rallied near the 2.0 Fib extension and consolidated until Trump's Jan 20th 2017 inauguration.
What followed after that was an immediate rally a little over the 3.0 Fibonacci.
With the 2024-2025 pattern being almost identical so far, we can expect a similar rally to the 3.0 Fib, which is a little over $150k.
Previous chart:
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US INAUGURATION & BTCAs the second Trump era begins, this is how Bitcoin looks:
- BTC new ATH in the run up to inauguration and highest ever weekly close. I believe this was in anticipation for Trumps acceptance speech to mention Bitcoin and or the strategic reserve. That did not happen and so we've seen a selloff wick down to Midpoint with price settling at 0.75 in the range.
Typically, wicks get filled and so I would like to see price steadily reach the midpoint and then begin to show some strength before looking to go LONG. That all changes if we see a crypto specific executive order signed in the coming hours/days we should then see a move back to the highs.
- 4H 200 EMA is always an important level for the Bullrun, the vast majority of altcoins are under the 4H 200 EMA thanks to liquidity being drawn out into BTC and Solana memecoin craze.
- Bitcoin is still leading the greater market but I do expect rotation into strong US based altcoins within the next few weeks going into the later part of Q1. Some key alts that fit that category are SOL, SUI, LINK, ONDO, XRP, ENS, and many more.
It's important to remember this is a marathon not a sprint and I fully expect progress to be made but it may not be linear, until we have broken out of the range in the chart and move into a clear trend environment BTC should be treated as such by trading instead of buying and holding.
BITCOIN: Just bounced on the former 4 year Resistance.Bitcoin is staging an incredible rebound on the nearly 4 year HH Resistance Zone, while being on a bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 61.575, MACD = 1366.600, ADX = 28.907) and a borderline overbought 1W, which really sets the tone for the rest of the bull market. This turns the former Resistance Zone into a Support, as this is the first test and bounce since it broke in November after the U.S. elections.
Symmetrically, the rally since August 5th 2024 looks like the rejection since November 8th 2021. Like the rejection reached the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, we expect the current bullish wave to do the same thing. A TP = 200,000 can be easily achieved under these conditions.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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