Welcome to short city (BITCOIN $3,000)Hey Traders,
We're finally starting to get some movement in the market, and it happens to be down. The anticipation of a bull break was always out of the question and now we are looking for targets to satisfy and end this bear market. 3K seems to be the perfect price, it not only has major fib confluence , but market and price confluence there as well. I wouldn't be adding just yet, even for my proposed 4th upward move. Grab some popcorn adnd sit back and watch.
Happy trading (updates to come)
Btc-short
One more sell wave coming, here's whyWell everyone who is going long now, needs to learn how a bottom and reversal looks.
A drop like this, without ANY kind of bounce, is indeed very very weak.
What is more, the longs are still much higher than the short, meaning that too many people think this is the bottom, they want to long prematurely,
and BTC wants to naturally destroy as many people as it can XD
No, but really, 4h stoch RSI overbought, high longs, and no bounce. Looking as if BTC would like to finally see the high 4 thousands again.
I think it will do so the latest in 1-3 days, maybe even today in the evening.
The support area dates back to a peak from 2017, which topped at shortly below 5000. This is the area to watch.
BTC good short entry bottom circle RED - Good indication to sell, price has peaked
middle circle - yellow - adx and di indicator, magenta is trend strength, while line is buy strength and its going down but grey line is sell strength and it has just turned up. if it crosses the purple horizontal line sell pressure is building and if magenta line stays up, trend is strong so sell trend is what I am looking to see as time goes on
top circle - grey candle, price down. the three lines in the circle, white, purple, magenta are moving average and price often moves to them or bounces on them. the bottom MA, magenta lines up with some volume (see volume in grey and white at side of chart, ) wicks often target these blocks of volume
so I am currently looking to see drop to 6330
and will assess if it gets there
6230 - 6240 I will place long there for now
The boat is still going down before "moon"Like mentioned in a comment on my previous published idea I have calculated four more signal dates one of which not so strong for October 18 or 19 and three stronger signals for October 23, November 1 and November 28. From there I sketched three different scenarios delimited by those dates. Another observation is that the longer it takes for the price to break up and a new uptrend to be confirmed (in green) the stronger the bullish momentum should be expected and the price should spike higher, delimited by the left ascending red triangle's hypotenuse. I feel strong about the price breaking down still below $5500 and settle above $4000, probably somewhere in the $4500's range, but let's see...
BTC Day TradeNew entry, TP, and SL
Day trade #1
Short
Daily results thus far: 0R
I am testing a strategy (revised version of the previous one) and will be posting All trades taken with it here.
These trades are in not influenced by my other positions and typically stay open less than 24hrs.
This is research and the strategy may change. These are actual trades I am taking. This strategy has a strike rate of less than 50% and an R:R of 1:3
Testing has been positive so far, and now it is time to live test.
Provided for educational purposes only.
Cumulative Results for test #2:
-2.5R
On a HTF analysis I have several buy signals that lead me to believe we are in accumulation. I have been buying longs on March futures and will continue to do so as long as BTC holds above 5800.
If I get a sell signal on the daily I will post. I have open long positions in ETH and TRX. And have a number of ALT coin positions
BTC is preparing to bottomBTC is consolidating in ending diagonal . My entry point for this short would be here around 0.786 from C-D movement and stop-loss above end of C-wave of triangle. BTC would bottom between 4500 and 5000 area because downfall(E-wave) could not be more than C-wave of ending diagonal of first pic
Short Term ShortThe market in general has lost lots of incentive to invest. However there are a few hands that move the market.
It has been oscillating between highs and lows and now I expect the market to have a short term pull back. Here are the main reasons.
1) Volume is decreasing
2) Candles have touched the yellow uptrend line in the triangle 4 times already, potential inverse cup and handle formation.
3) Going back to the fact that the market lost a global incentive to invest, I still expect BEARISH ENVIRONMENT, EMA 100 and EMA 50 lines are consolidated with the candles. With the bearish market I expect pullbacks in this stage (in my previous analysis I longed the trade because the candles were way below the 2 emas.
4) MACD is not showing a positive momentum.
Waiting for a pullback the next 2 days and depending on the EMA levels I will have long entries.
ETH/USD Bad sign. Short PatternsCall me old-fashioned, but according to trade versus graphics and chart sign. The figure "Channel UP" clearly shows the decrease the price of ETH, BTC and most of the currencies. At this time, it is not a desirable moment for an investment.
Hopefully and support to withstand the pressure, but it
we will know it soon.
Do not forget! think while trading, that's your money.
Which Way Should We Trade BTC?Macro Trend: Bearish.
Current Pattern Trend: Bullish.
HVF continuation pattern to the bull side.
Momentum of the legs show strength to the bear side.
Price action showing reduction in volatility in correspondence with the OBV squeezing.
Keep in mind that we are also sitting on top of a previous recent funnel at the moment
A breakout is about to happen soon!
Could this possibly be the turn around for BTC?
Bitcoin Looking VERY Bullish? By the looks of this chart everything looks bullish. We have been making higher lows since January, a golden cross took place back in May and currently we are in a bull flag with a bullish engulfing candle.
If you didn't realize already this is actually an inverted bitcoin chart. The whole chart is upside down. So really all the bullish stuff we see is actually we bearish. We've been making lower highs since January, a death cross took place back in may and currently we are in a bear flag with a bearish engulfing candle. Nothing about this is bullish at all. This is why my bias is towards the downside. Through making bad trades I've learned that the best thing to do is what the chart says. This chart is bearish therefore I will short bitcoin. If it looks bullish then I'll go long. Simple as that. In my opinion it's easier to see reasons to be bearish with an inverted chart.
If you are bullish on bitcoin because of an ETF or some other big news then become an INVESTOR not a TRADER. As a trader this looks like a great opportunity to continue to short.
BTC 4hr/daily Bounce Occurring. Looking for Weekly Lower HighI mentioned in my last BTC post that I was looking for BTC to set a higher low on the weekly compared to 5858 and then for bulls to take over to set a lower high.
BTC is bouncing from 6119 and has changed the 4hr uptrend for the first time since the dump on September 5th. For me to be confident that the weekly higher low has been established and for bulls to have a chance of breaking the weekly equilibrium pattern I need to see higher lows and higher highs on the daily timeframe. So far we are seeing weak bull volume on this bounce and are testing the 4hr 55EMA, daily 10MA, and daily 12EMA. I am in short positions in some altcoins and will increase position size as BTC approaches the 26/55EMA on the daily.
The area we are currently trying to move through has a lot of support/resistance price history from 2018, indicated by the red box. If bulls want to have any chance of saving the weekly equilibrium pattern, we need to see impulsive moves up through this area with more volume. I anticipate that bulls will set a weekly lower high below 7000 since the 6850 area has a lot of resistance (if we can even make it that far). After the weekly lower high is set I will look for a break of the weekly equilibrium pattern to indicate direction for the rest of the year.
The weak bounce has brought the 1hr and 4hr RSI back above oversold levels, which can allow bears to more easily drive the price back down again if they show up.
I have no interest in playing bullish because of the amount of resistance we have in the red box, even if we see a change in trend on the daily timeframe. Until bulls can break above 7429 all my positions will be shorts.