Btc-short
BITCOIN BULL TRAP!Hello!
Looks like bitcoin finally heading up now trading above 20k; ever since i made my last video it does seem that the support levels have gone down so I'm lowering my target to 21,500 for BTC if you want to short that is the area to short. On top of that ; the feds are increasing the rates on Nov 1st so we should see the markets go down toward the end of October.
BTC : 20400 THE LEVEL WILL TAKE BTC TO 24K and NEW UPTRENDIts waiting coming time for the important level of 20400, that can take BTC to 24K level.
20400 is an important level for trend and can change also the new uptrend for long term for BTC.
we are already more then 70% into breakdown of BTC : there will come a time when the first hedge fund/whale entering the trend and the rest will follow.
When we backtest the chart we see same effect, there should be first secure entry, the rest follow.
We will see or this will get confirmed next hours or days.
The level of 20400 is an important level for breakout.
This level is exactly the level of before BULLRUN see the below chart.
BTC Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September BTC Weekly Forecast 26-30 September
Currently our volatility coming from DVOL for BTC is at 9.65% (decreasing from 10.15% of last week), currently located on 78th percentile, placing us in a high probability volatility environment
Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 32.3% chance that the asset is going to break the channel for
TOP 20620
BOT 16991
At the same time, based on the previous calculations, there is a 52% chance that the previous low from last week of 18100 is going to be touched/surpassed.
On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 6% for bull candles and 7.3% for the bear candles from the opening price.
From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week:
- CB Consumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep
- Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep
- US GDP coming on thursday 29 Sep
Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.
BTC Volatility Forecast 19-25 Sep 2022BTC Volatility Forecast 19-25 Sep 2022
The current implied volatility is +- 1915$ from the current opening of the weekly candle, 19417$
With this in mind, we have an 80% chance that the market is going to stay within the range:
TOP: 21280
BOT: 17555
At the same time, we can see that the average weekly candle, is around 8.5%
From the technical analysis POV, we can see that our asset is below EMA 50/100/200.
At the same from the volume POV, we can see that currently our CMF is negative, indicating a much higher position on the bearish side.
Lastly, we can see that since June 2022, we have been within a channel of 24/25k - 17.5-18k, so if we are going on the daily close below 17.5, I believe there is a high chance the asset is going to continue the downfall movement.
BTC SHORT? Maybe I have been looking at these charts for too long but this looks good to me. If nothing more then part of it completed. Technically it's too soon to consider this because if you look up still plenty of room, but without some retracement is unlikely to me. We are also about to enter2nd MM Killzone. We just tapped the ceiling so, tapping the floor seems logical. I am just messing around not risking much on this trade. Don't have to risk much if it even half is right. As of now we are still very much in an uptrend and we technically made a higher high which makes this trade about absurd and against the trend which is not the best thing to do in most cases. I opened the position cause something on a volume footprint chart that was out of place. It indicated to me we could reverse soon. This probably is not the smartest trade, but I have never been great at following the crowd. Even funding rates are positive and predicated rates are positive.
24500 Is a massive supply zone or resistance if you prefer. It has a ton or orders stacked there. 25000 is the heaviest looking at it from a market maker view. There is almost no support below volume or limit order wise. Below 23600 is empty at the moment it would move through there with haste if it gets there.
If this has already started by the time this is published you can always find a pull back and enter the new downtrend I believe is going to form. Lets see how it plays out. My long that just completed played out wonderfully. Wish I had published that one. I only published it private cause I had my personal levels on it I have since removed.
We just 10 seconds ago enter KZ2 I mentioned earlier. Lets se what happens and who gets taken out. Good luck. Looks like it already started, sorry for late post, but it could very well come back close to entry a few times yet. Oh and I know that's not the traditional way to use FIB levels, it's something I use just to mark areas of value. I use the volume profile more. Set TP at higher volume locations.
A bearish case for BNBWe see a greater downside potential on BNB than in BTC.
BNB has fallen less from its ATH.
BNB has extremely less volume to sustain its current price levels
BNB has to fall twice the same percentage (square of the fall) approximately in order to match corresponding level of BTC in the chart
BNB has way less demand (thus, price support) than BTC
Hence, it looks to us that the eventual payoff of a BNB short is bigger than a corresponding BTC short.
Best regards.
BTC Analysis 📊 30/8/2022Whats Up Retail Whales 🐋
Before we start to discuss, id be so glad if you share your opinion on this post's comment section and hit the like button if you gained value!
- Equal highs above got purged during the FED NEWS as we discussed in our previous analysis.
- Price then proceeded to BOS to the downside
- We have two valid Whale Block zones that we can look for shorts from.
- Both zones have imbalance
- Lower zones trend line liquidity has been purged
Will monitor on LTF when alerts are triggered.
Remember we are trading human emotions and probabilities
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HooRaa
$BTC Down We Go Again | Trade Idea
Yesterday, the BTC daily didnt appeal to me as much as the ETH chart did but today is a different story. Same factors that are against ETH are against BTC:
13 EMA
50 EMA
200 EMA
McDonald's Arches are present pattern here
All in all I see this easily retracing back to the support zone highlighted. The question though is will it hold?