Bitcoin (BTC): This Is Just The Beginning / Will Drop MoreWe are seeing good things on the market, well for us at least. The breakdown we had was not a quick liquidity hunt but a proper breakdown where we are now getting ready for another drop to happen.
Before we move to lower zones, there is a chance of seeing a re-test happen to upper zones, which would be a healthy re-test once we have a successful rejection then.
The best option is to just DCA the bitcoin, with most entry being near upper resistance zones.
Let the fun begin. We have been waiting for it for some time now and it seems markets are ready.
Swallow Team
BTC
BTC FEAR AND GREED INDEXAfter BTC corrects to the $86K level and the Timeline sentiment hit an all time low it got me thinking, is there any correlation between sentiment around pivotal price levels of the market? To find out I studied the "Fear and Greed Index", an indicator that uses a range of sources such as volatility, volume, sentiment, dominance and trends to give a score out of 100. 1 being peak fear and 100 being peak greed.
The results were interesting, currently the FGI is 21/100 (extreme fear) and if you've spent much time on crypto twitter is does feel that way too. However, during this bull market there are two key price areas where BTC had the same score:
Bear market bottom -
When the bear market ended after a full year of brutal selling BTCs price was around $16K with the same FGI score as today with 21. This signaled the end to the selling and began the bull market we have now.
Q2-23 '24 bottom -
For me, the most relevant time to compare FGI with todays score is with the bottom of the bearish trend channel we suffered through in 2024. Although price did wick below this $53,923 level to hit GETTEX:49K , the daily didn't close below it and so the September 6th low is the trend channel bottom. FGI score of 22 provided the springboard for the next leg up.
So with his information the real question is this: Are we still in a bull market? If the answer is yes, then history tells us once FGI reaches these levels the bottom is in and the next leg up is around the corner.
If the answer is no then the printing of a new lower high after yesterdays lower low will be confirmation of bitcoin rolling over.
I am not sure which is true but having a plan for both will be very important.
BITCOIN Is the correction over??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) completed yesterday a -21.14% decline from its January All Time High (ATH). This move made new 3-month lows for the market and naturally accelerated the fears of a Cycle peak and the start of a new Bear Market.
Zooming out to the larger time-frames however, we can see that the trend remains heavily bullish within this Bull Cycle's dominant pattern, the Channel Up since August 2021. In fact the current -21.14% pull-back is identical with the Minor Correction Phase (orange) the pattern had during July - September 2023. The similarities don't stop there. That Minor Correction bottomed a little before touching the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. The 0.382 Fib on the current Phase is at $81000, while the 1W MA50 is a little lower. The 1D RSI however has already breached the oversold barrier (<30.00) as on the August 14 2023 Low.
That wasn't the only time the 1D RSI tested the oversold barrier. The last time it was on the week of July 01 2024, during another pull-back, this time the Major Correction Phase. That was considerably longer and stronger (-33.28%), which did hit the 1W MA50 in order to bottom, and as you can see it hasn't been the only major pull-back of the Channel Up. The other Major Correction Phase was at the start of the pattern (Aug - Nov 2022), which measured a -38.47% decline.
As you see, there is a high degree of symmetry among Major and Minor Correction Phases, so there is a high probability that BTC has now bottomed on its new Minor Correction Phase. If not, a bottom level candidate will be waiting a little above $81k and the 0.382 Fib.
The minimum rally following a correction bottom has been +95.95%, so if BTC repeats that from yesterday's Low, we are looking at a new Higher High exactly at the top of the Channel Up at $169000.
So do you think we've see the bottom on this technical correction or we are due some more towards $81k before rebounding? And if so, are you expecting a final rally towards $169k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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3 week chart forecasted the drop. Now what for Bitcoin?As per analysis:
Update on this chart that forecasted the drop. If you see my Binance BTC chart you will see both line up with each other's analysis yet they are 2 different types of TA and timeframes.
Now the drop has happened the % we forecast of the minimum 25% is not hit yet. This chart shows in yellow the current amount of % in drop BTC has made so far. The orange is the minimum as per history.
You will see on this chart there are now coloured circles around some candles. These are the times when Bitcoin was in a similar late period of a bull market and the RSI white line went under the yellow RSI line.(not the yellow trendline at 50.21 , the actual moving RSI yellow line).
The price drops are shown for these inside the circles, except for covid crash (red circle).
There are date ranges shown which are from the bottom of these price drops to the top of the bull run. I have put similar date ranges at current bottom and the larger of the 2 goes to mid November which would line up with a normal ending to bull run, making right now similar to the pink circled area.
The red circle is the covid crash and if you look at RSI this is the only time in a bull run that the yellow moving RSI line is on a downward slope. Every other time it is sloping down, we are in a bear market. Now look at the current situation, it is a downward sloping line. This is a slight concern.
Now we wait to see what unfolds on the lower timeframe analysis after this recent drop and check other indicators for a bear market confirmation. For now, we must assume we are still in a bull market, unless there are more signs of a bear market showing.
If still in bull run then these prices are a gift on altcoins. The issue is whether BTC wants to close the gap at 77k area which could potentially trigger the bear market to follow, depending on how long it is down at that price.
If this 3week RSI reclaims the yellow moving RSI line then we know the bull run will continue.
(BTC) bitcoin "head & shoulders, head & shoulders"BTC is not going to fall all the way down. The price is decreasing in price, yes.. Sentiment is not good right now from many points of view. There is more to come from BTC and there is always a strong urge to buy BTC by seekers who are only growing their wallet size holdings of BTC. 'What's in your wallet," the motto made famously by MasterCard, is befitting of BTC even if there are fewer people now that use BTC to make real transactions. The worst of cryptocurrency development over the last two years is in seeing almost no new companies offering a way to pay with BTC. Pay with BTC. Pay with Doge. Pay with XLM. Don't pay with credit cards that leak your identity and lose precious personal information in data breach hacks. The only way to reduce the dark market interests of criminals who sell hacked personal identity information is to use components of finance that resist hackers attempts to steal information from consumers. There is hardly anything that can be purchased using BTC, DOGE, XLM, et al. etc. in the real world.
Bitcoin’s Symmetrical Triangle Breakdown – How Low Can It Go?Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) started to fall, as I expected in the previous post ; the question here is whether the fall continues or not .
Today, I want to analyze Bitcoin for you in the 15-minute time frame .
Bitcoin was able to break the Support zone($93,300-$90,500) and important Support line .
Bitcoin also seems to have formed a Symmetrical Triangle Pattern and was able to break the lower line of the triangle.
Educational Tip : The Symmetrical Triangle is a continuation pattern where the price consolidates into a narrowing range with lower highs and higher lows. It indicates indecision, with a breakout in either direction confirming the next trend.
I expect Bitcoin to drop to the targets that I specified in my chart.
Note: If Bitcoin goes above $95,850, we can expect more pumps.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
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The descending channel on btc is wider than originally thought Now that we have had a bounce from yesterday’s big red candle I was able to find two new parallell trendlines that essentially widened the descending channel price has been consolidating in. We need price to get back above the red line soon however for that is a double top neckline, a double top with a full breakdown target of 70k, so we definitely wanna avoid triggering that breakdown by getting price action back above the red line ASAP. *not financial advice*
$SPY $SPX Pullback to Gap Fill? I've been waiting for a rocket to AMEX:SPY $630 but my monthly tells me that February wants to close red. Here is my daily with a fib that we cant seem to hold above although today we did close above once I have been waiting patiently in this box unlike others, I have constantly reiterated, don't try to be a hero inside of the box. Now that the Box seems to be pushing towards the upside, I can't help but notice we continue printing bearish candles regardless of direction. Today we closed with a Hangman, which begs the question, could we perhaps lean bearish for two of the most bearish weeks of the year in comparison? I'd like to think I'm not wrong here and we will get a spill before anyone gets an expected blow off top. Be careful out there, volatility remains present and the VIX was above the 50DMA last time I checked. If we can get this gap fill and start moving back up, I will be confident in the gap fill being bottom. Seeing as $593 AMEX:SPY alert for bottom never filled, I will have to assume it's still a possibility. Taz out.
BTS Heading to 74K or Is It Just a Shakeout?Not a pretty picture, is it? I hope it's just a shakeout of weak hands and not truly a breakdown.
The price has clearly closed below significant lows. Only saving grace is that the yesterday low is around 38.2% retracement of the rise from lows of August 2024 (sub 50K level).
Let's hope it reverses for good from here. If not, it's not just #BTC that will fall but majority of cryptos with it.
BTC Price Target #3: The Bullish Case, V-Shaped RecoveryImplausible without a positive catalyst and a return of interest in 'Risk On':
A V Shaped recovery of price action, reclaiming the value area in question, support of the VWAP and POC, essentially reversing the dump begun 2/21 with the curiously timed revelation of the Bybit hack...
Should price action *rapidly* reclaim GETTEX:97K --or, better yet, $99.8K--and confirm the recovery with a Daily close above, the supposed post-halving bull run would be on again. For now...
Such an outcome would be consistent with an (arguable) Double Bottom--if not #JTTW.
BTC Price Target #1: Most Bearish CaseMy most bearish guess for where BTC price proceeds from here (2/25/25):
Consistent with a Double Top, we see basically a 786 retracement (however circuitous) below the 200d SMA to levels preceding the move to $100K begun in November of 2024.
This could--and would likely--involve a bearish retest of the VAL of the volume profile anchored at the 10/10/24 Swing Low, a dead-cat bounce and retest of its POC, and/or a bear-flagging decent to the level in question.
It's plausible, especially given the lack of volume in crypto markets since December of 2024, however much the history of post-halving years would suggest otherwise. Also favoring the bearish case: the persistence of QT and the unlikelihood of significant cuts in the Federal Funding Rate.
SUI update#SUI is on of my favorite coins this coin has a good potential for a big rise and its always looking for liq in lower or higher prices ! just check this out
you can see that the huge drop took all the liq in lower prices
also you can see that there is a remaining liq around 3$ which is not taken
ans also we have a huge liq on higher prices which can be a sign of attraction to higher prices !
Bitcoin - The Uptrend Remains 100% Valid!Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) can create a textbook break and retest:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Over the past couple of weeks we have only been seeing a consolidation on all cryptocurrencies, governed by the slow movement on Bitcoin. With today's drop Bitcoin is now approaching the previous all time highs, which are now acting as a major support, pushing price much higher.
Levels to watch: $70.000, $300.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
$BTC: Key Levels to Watch in the MarketKey Levels to Watch in the Market
📉 Bybit hack aftermath:
Destroyed market sentiment
Shook institutional confidence
Killed the national reserve idea (US states considering Bitcoin reserves have now canceled their votes)
🚀 The last push to $99K was all Michael Saylor, spending SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:2B alone.
Is he insane? Buying at the top of the market?
Painful Consolidation Ahead?
We’re sitting at $91K—a crucial support. If Bitcoin fails to hold this level, expect a freefall to $85K, then possibly $81K (major support zones).
From there, Bitcoin can either:
✅ Bounce into a relief rally
❌ Break down into a full bear market if it falls below Support 3
Tough Times for Crypto
Meme coin frenzy scared off retail investors after massive losses.
Presidents rugging people doesn’t help trust in the industry.
Trump’s tariff policies could push inflation up, forcing the FED to hike interest rates.
Any Good News? Nope.
📉 SPX500 is also dropping.
🔍 TruthLabs warns that if a bear market starts, most exchanges and DeFi protocols won’t survive —they aren’t backed 1:1. This could trigger the worst bear market ever.
(See their warning here: x.com)
Final Thoughts
⚠️ Watch $91K—if it breaks, exit the market and wait. No need to get rekt in this toxic environment.
And pray that Tether has enough liquidity to handle the mass exodus. Put your funds on Binance or another reputable exchange.
🔍 DYOR
BITCOIN Step back and admire the big picture!Bitcoin / BTCUSD is having a 'bloodpath' week in the eyes of most but not to those that know when to zoom out and look at the bigger picture.
And that's BTC being on a purely technical Bull Cycle correction.
In fact the same Channel Down correction has been seen twice already this Cycle after at least a +105.70% rise.
Both times it found support and bounced on the 1week MA50.
Another month of consolidation is possible until contact (or close) is made but overall, the current levels are an excellent long term buy opportunity.
Buy and target 175000 (+105.70%).
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BITCOIN → Testing $88K - $90K. False or true breakdown?BINANCE:BTCUSD enters the risk zone and forms a false breakdown of the key support zone. All eyes are on the bulls, whether they can keep their defense on the market or not....
On D1 - W1 price in global consolidation after strong growth. The focus is on 90-91K, a zone that is a strong support for the global trend. A false breakout is forming at the moment.
On the Local timeframe H1 - H4 the price is testing the local channel support, as well as the risk zone 89400.
If the bulls can keep the defense above 89400 - 90K, bitcoin may strengthen. The primary target in this case could be 94K
Support levels: 91280, 89400
Resistance levels: 94800, 99200
Statistically, the strongest dvjeniyas are formed after a false breakdown. But there is another question here, what kind of breakout will be - true or false.
In our case, we need to wait for confirmation, namely, for the price to consolidate above the key zones and levels. Emphasis on 89400, 90000, 91300
Regards R. Linda!
Bitcoin broke down- Is 75k next target?Over the past three weeks, Bitcoin has remained virtually unchanged, trading within a range of 95K–97K.
However, yesterday, the price broke below this range, dropping to the 91K confluence support—a key level I’ve highlighted in previous analyses.
After briefly spiking as low as 87K, BTC has rebounded to around 90K, but if we analyze the price action objectively, there are no clear bullish signals.
From a technical perspective, the three-month trading range has broken to the downside, suggesting a continuation of the downward trend.
I anticipate further losses for BTC, and a drop to 75K in the coming months wouldn’t be surprising. 📉