Technical analysis update: Bitcoin (5th January 2022)Bitcoin trades slightly above 46 000 USD and we continue to maintain bearish notion on it. Our short-term price target of 42 500 USD remains in place.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is bearish. MACD flattened out before crossing above 0 points which is also bearish. Stochastic is bearish too. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions. ADX started to flatten; and it seems as if it would want to start increasing again. In such a case, that would suggest that the bearish trend is still present and regaining strength.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. It also shows a recent false breakout (from pattern resembling falling wedge) to the upside and its full retracement. Now we will observe whether BTCUSD manages to break below short-term support and subsequently make a new low.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is bearish. MACD and Stochastic are also bearish. DM+ and DM- exhibit bearish conditions. ADX is relatively low which coincides with BTCUSD trading sideways prior to bearish breakout from the neutral zone.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. It also shows head and shoulders pattern being formed. We will observe whether Bitcoin manages to break below the neckline which would be extremely bearish for BTCUSD.
Support and resistance
Short-term support lies at 45 478 USD. Support 1 can be found at 41 967 USD and the major support level sits at 28 600 USD. Short-term resistance lies at 48 834 USD and Resistance 1 sits at 52 956 USD. Neutral zone appears between the short-term resistance and Resistance 1.
Our previous idea on BTCUSD from 30th December 2021:
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Bitcoin Futures
Technical analysis update: BTCUSD (6th January 2022)Bitcoin reached our short-term price target of 42 500 USD yesterday. We continue to maintain a bearish stance on Bitcoin and we expect selling pressure to be persistent. Our view is supported by bearish technical and fundamental factors. We view hawkish minutes by the FED as very bearish for the whole cryptocurrency market. Faster pace of tightening and increase in interest rates in the U.S. poses substantial threat for further rise in price of cryptocurrencies. This combined with bearish indicators on daily, weekly and monthly time frames suggest that trend remains to the downside and because of that we would like to set a new short-term price target for BTCUSD to 40 000 USD. Additionally, we would like to set a medium-term price target for BTCUSD to 37 500 USD.
(If you want to understand how we got to this conclusion, read attached articles from 16th November 2021, 13th December 2021 and 5th January 2022)
Illustration 1.01
Picture above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. It also shows a head and shoulders pattern which got confirmed as the price dropped to 42 413 USD. This is extremely bearish and we will observe price action very closely in the following days. We will watch whether BTCUSD manages to stay below the neckline or whether it retraces back above it. If Bitcoin manages to retrace back above the neckline, then we expect price to bounce towards 46 000 USD price tag before dropping lower.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD and Stochastic are all bearish. DM + and DM- show bearish conditions. ADX continues to increase which suggests that the bearish trend is regaining strength. We will watch out for RSI crossover below 30 points which we expect to be accompanied by further selling pressure that will ultimately drag BTCUSD below 40 000 USD.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of RSI (of BTCUSD) that is due to perform a crossover below 30 points. Such an occurrence would be very bearish for BTCUSD.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is bearish. MACD and Stochastic are also bearish. DM+ and DM- exhibit bearish conditions. ADX is relatively low which coincides with BTCUSD trading sideways prior to bearish breakout from the neutral zone.
Illustration 1.03
Picture above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. It also shows particular support and resistance levels.
Support and resistance
Short-term support can be found at 41 967 USD. Support 1 sits at 39 573 USD and major support level sits at 28 600 USD. Short-term resistance lies at 45 478 USD. Resistance 1 lies at 48 834 USD and Resistance 2 sits at 52 956 USD.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: BTCUSD (18th December 2021)We continue to maintain a bearish view on Bitcoin as it continues to trade below the neutral zone. Since Bitcoin's rebound from its recent low at 41 967.50 USD on 4th December 2021 Bitcoin continues to make lower troughs and lower peaks which is indicative of the bearish trend. We expect an eventual retest of 41 967.50 USD price level and possible continuation of the bearish trend. We think that higher interest rates in the U.S. combined with constriction of money supply present a substantial threat to further rise of BTCUSD in the short-term and medium-term. Because of that we would like to set a short-term price target for BTCUSD to 42 500 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Picture above shows the hourly chart of BTCUSD. It also shows particular troughs and peaks.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
So far RSI failed to cross below 30 points; however, its structure remains bearish. Stochastic is also bearish. MACD is bearish too; DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions. ADX contains high value; and it continues to grow which suggests that the prevailing trend is either getting very strong or it nears its peak. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, Stochastic and MACD continue to develop bearish structures. DM+ and DM- are also bearish. ADX contains relatively low value which suggests that trend of higher degree is weak. In general, the weekly time frame is bearish which coincides with bearish daily time frame.
Illustration 1.02
We think that drop in price below recent low would result in extremely bearish conditions for BTCUSD.
Support and resistance
Major support level is at 28 600 USD while major resistance level is at 69 000 USD. Short-term resistance is at 48 834 USD while medium-term resistance lies at 52 956 USD. Between these two price levels lies the neutral zone. Other resistance levels appear at 59 564 USD and then at 64 895 USD. Other support levels can be found at 42 900 USD and at 37 573 USD. Additionally, support level can be also found at recent low of 41 967 USD.
Our bold predictions from the past:
16th November 2021
Here we predicted double top formation and subsequent meltdown in price.
26th November 2021
Here we layed out case for even more bearish scenario for BTCUSD.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
BTC1! continuation of downward trendThis is the Monday weekly review of BTC1! CME chart. We can see that no gaps were formed over the weekend and that price was rejected by the previous gap. Price is downtrending within the downward channel. The measure move of the previous ascending channel breakdown is 37.5k. There is an open gap at 34.5K that acts as an attractor.
I guessed a path downward. This is just a guess based on supports and resistances. Price action might and usually go all over the place before reaching a target, or it might just nuke straight down.
Bitcoin Possible Reversal Zone - Confirmation Below Zone NeededTrader, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) consolidated for some time and then showed a little strength. This strength can be deceiving just to create all time highs and completed an extended W pattern which usually is a bearish pattern if confirmed. This is not the right time to buy BTC1! as it is close to the reversal FCP zone and a psychological 70K round number. Better place to buy will be when it falls for a correction. This however can be a good set up to short if we get a confirmation below the zone on at least daily basis. Due to hype, it is better to get a confirmation on rather weekly basis.
Rules:
1. Never trade too much
2. Never trade without a confirmation
3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too
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-Vik
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📌 DISCLAIMER
The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only.
Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions.
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btc 12-8 update ~morning
btc is sitting down here in the local golden zone after a 3 wave move down; currently at the bottom end of this little channel we've created the other day.
our indicator looks decent for a little push up, but i think it'll be short lived.
my upside target on this little swing will sit just above 53k, which will be a very high area of liquidity for shorts, as well as a vortex of confluence as talked about in yesterdays post.
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wave C target = $53,482
11-30 bitcorn update :^)wise man once said
sell when everyone is greedy
buy when everyone is fearful
little expanded flat playing out here into what i'm thinking might be a 1-2, but it could very well be an a-b as well.
if it's an a-b, look out below once wave c is in :, )
i prefer the simple zig-zag scenario for maximum pain + maximum opportunity for those who're ready for it;
but i'll take the 1-2 as well.
Bitcoin at Crucial SupportSince the triangle "real-breakout", we have made about half the measured move, only to retrace to previous resistance (R1).
If we can hold R1 this week, there is a strong potential to complete the measured move at $78K.
However, according to the Squeeze Momentum indicator, there is a bearish thrust that could last a few months.
As this is a weekly indicator, it will be key to hold R1 through this weekend.
btc 11\22 updatemorning,
looking at btc miners, and the current wave setup + taking into account the cme futures max pain on december 31st which sits at 46k, i'm going to conclude my theory of this expanded flat scenario into the primary wave 4 going down to the low 30k's into jan \ february to fill the cme gap before we see any new highs on btc.
i'm bearish until we get there, and will short every single pop.
100% bullish after we complete this expanded flat.
i could very well be wrong about this, but i have to stick to my intuition on this one.
ps. i made a video going over this scenario last week on my youtube channel, feel free to check it out if this theory catches your interest.
🥂
The dip can goes dipper...But..!!Hello Bitcoiners
Indicators actually are bearish in lower TF + Daily and Weekly not seems enough strong
So we can expect more correction and a dip around $49k/$50k
But the good news is that we are still bullish on Weekly so we can expect another move up after the correction/sideway
Next long target will be +$80k
Keep strong
-Goodluck
Bitcoin CME Highest Weekly Close in History! CME BTC futures had its highest Weekly close. Just now starting to print the 200 Weekly SMA and EMA trend lines! Bullish chart or what?!? The Bi-Monthly also closed above the top Bollinger Band on either Spot or CME, can't remember which.
Supply shock incoming! That will be unreal! And more ETFs.
Have a plan for pulling profits and keeping skin in the game, write it down and stick to it, no emotions...
Technical analysis update: BTCUSD (20th October 2021)BTCUSD reached new all time high today as Bitcoin ETF reached over 1 bn. USD in AUM within just two days since it started trading. We previously noted if new all time high was reached then it would force us to change our stance from bearish to bullish. We also noted that we expected price to continue rise in case of breakout above previous all time high. We continue to think that more upside awaits BTCUSD. However, we think investors should be cautious. Volume keeps decreasing while price reaches new highs and several indicators are overvalued which suggest that price should correct. Because of that we think it would be smart to wait for any pullback before entering long position in the market. Bitcoin currently provides interesting setup with possible long entry above short-term support or short entry below short-term support.
Technical analysis
RSI is extremely overvalued and we expect it to reverse soon. We expect such occurence to be accompanied by selling pressure. Stochastic remains bullish altogether with MACD. ADX contains high value which suggests that trend is strong or near its peak. We expect volatility of BTC to stay elevated in short-term.
Support and resistance
Short-term support coincides with previous all time high of 64 895.22 USD. Support 1 appears at 59 603 USD and Support 2 at 52 956.47 USD. Closest psychological resistance lies at 70 000 USD.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: BTCUSD (15th October 2021)BTCUSD trades slightly below 60 000 USD pricetag. We will observe whether it manages to break above this price level and stay there. It would be particularly bullish for BTCUSD and in such scenario we would expect BTCUSD to try new all time high. However, there are several indicators that reached overbought condition already. Therefore, we are very cautious.
Technical analysis
Stochastic is bullish. MACD is also bullish. Trend continues to be bullish, however, RSI reached overbought condition which suggests that price might experience correction soon.
Support and resistance
Short-term support sits at 59 603 USD. Support 1 appears at 52 956 USD and Support 2 at 48 834 USD. Support 3 sits at 39 573 USD while major support lies at 28 600 USD. Major resistance coincides with all time high at 64 895 USD.
Previous thought from 6th October 2021:
Here we noted that we changed stance from neutral to bullish.
Previous thought from 4th October 2021:
Here we presented interesting and very clear setup for BTCUSD. After that price bursted into bullish direction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.