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Binance halts BTC withdrawals and spooks the marketBitcoin futures closed slightly below the $30,000 mark (at $29,910) last Friday. However, the price took a nosedive over the weekend as Binance temporarily halted Bitcoin withdrawals and transfers, citing an overwhelming number of pending transactions. On Monday, Bitcoin futures opened at $29,105 and continued lower toward the $28,300 price tag where they currently trade. We pay close attention to MACD on the daily time frame, which continues to develop a bearish structure. In addition to that, we observe volume levels, which are considerably lower compared to a recent period when Bitcoin was moving sharply higher (in so-called spikes). That is an interesting development as the addresses with more than 100 and 1000 Bitcoins in the balance are not seen growing in number in the past two weeks; meanwhile, the number of addresses with much smaller balances continues to grow, suggesting that retail continues to accumulate. We previously expressed our beliefs that it is very likely that we will see a massive rag-pull being played on retail investors, and that continues to be the case. Our stance remains unchanged as we believe the most deceitful bear market rally continues to unravel. Accordingly, our price target for BTCUSD stays at $15,000 and $13,000. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of Bitcoin's continuous futures. If the price breaks below the sloping support, it will bolster the bearish case in the short term. The same applies if MACD performs a crossover below 0. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD across various exchanges. We would like to point out the similarity in volume trends on all these exchanges. Volume dropped significantly compared to the two previous major legs up (from around $17,000 to $25,000 and $19,500 to $31 000). Illustration 1.03 The picture above shows simple support and resistance levels derived from peaks and troughs. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
19
Bitcoin makes a lot of money, hold it and continue to look at th Responsibility and rigor are the guarantee of success. Some people start bragging without doing anything, and some details that should be kept secret are easily revealed because of their vanity. This kind of person either has no sense of responsibility or lacks a rigorous attitude, which often leads to failure in planning. Responsibility and rigor go hand in hand. First of all, congratulations to the investment friends who insisted on giving Bitcoin 24000 and 23900 empty recently. The current decline of Bitcoin is completely in line with expectations. This wave of decline has not yet ended. field. Bitcoin operation recommends selling at 22800, risk control at 23400, target 21400~21700 Bitcoin bearishness is based on the following: 1. At present, Bitcoin is in a shock order after the high point appears. If it falls below the platform low point of the previous two days, the decline will officially start. 2. The upper pressure is 22800-23400, and the lower support is 21400-21700. CME:BTC1! Please continue to pay attention to my analysis and sharing. If you have better opinions, you can click the link below to discuss together
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Crazylambboy
2
Bitcoin CME Report for Tuesday 17 Jan 2023 to Tuesday 24 Jan 202CME Overview: Bitcoin and crypto, in general, have had a major run starting most significantly since the start of the new year. BTC1! Is the Bitcoin Chicago Mercantile Exchange Futures trading and comprises significant institutional trading of Bitcoin. The most significant data we use in this report are from the Dealer and Intermediaries which are the Exchanges and Brokerages as well as the Asset Managers the latter of which has been longing the 2021 all-time high and subsequent bear market to their peril. The report that comes out on Fridays shows the actions that occurred by position from the previous Tuesday to the Tuesday before that. This current report shows a week-long snapshot of CME positions on Bitcoin from Tuesday the 17th of January to Tuesday the 24th of January. New reports are released on the following Friday after the market closes. Bitcoin CME Report for Tuesday 17 Jan 2023 to Tuesday 24 Jan 2023 From the 17th to the 20th of January price increased from $21.2k to $22.4k before a 2-day break for the weekend. Most notably from Monday the 23rd and Tuesday the 24th the CME gapped up, meaning that the close price from Friday (CME closes for weekend trading) the price of Bitcoin increased from $22.4k and opened on Monday at $22.6k. This creates a “Gap”, and by rule, gaps do not have to be filled however probability says they have a higher fill rate than not. That weekend gap has now been taken out completely however a gap from the 14th and 15th of January largely still exists between $19.9k and $20.4k with a massive and older gap from the 12th and 13th of June 2022 above us at $27.4k and $29.1k. Dealers and Intermediaries are Extremely Short Short Positions: In the current reporting period, we see that Dealers and Intermediaries (The Exchanges / Brokerages) increased their longs by 101 positions bringing their total long positions to 304 while still adding 726 short positions bringing their total short positions to 4,346. This is very different from what usually occurs in relation to lower timeframe price action as we see Dealers and Intermediaries usually adjusting their positions more regularly to catch the Major Moves. As the price has increased in this period this is the most significant adding of short positions by the Dealers and Intermediaries that we have seen since the end of March 2022 when Dealers and Intermediaries massively shorted to force a Q2 open underneath the Q1 open and thereby wrecking quarterly options. Dealers and Intermediaries are now 93.4% short. Asset Managers are still largely out of Position and Entirely Long Long Positions: The other interesting figure from a more accurate perspective is how out of position the Asset Managers have been in the last year plus as they began heavily building longs at the highs in the fall of 2021 and now they have begun to heavily increase their positions in this weeklong period by a further 644 positions to a total of 7,671 long positions and closed 243 short positions leaving only 63 short positions total for asset managers. This means that compared to short positions Asset Managers and Institutions are 99.2% Long with relatively zero shorts. Summary This most recent COT report is interesting as it shows Asset Managers and Institutionals are only long at the same time as we have had good market movement to the upside with each level creating support. The Asset Managers and Institutionals are entirely in Long positions as they added massive longs that are/were out of position going back to November of 2021 and throughout the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin is still holding key levels however, the extreme bearish sentiment is starting to dissipate as Bears are being and have been punished in every range and consolidation period. Every continuous move-up was met by heavy shorting from retail thus providing more liquidity to move price upwards. This is now starting to change as Retail is beginning to add longs in this previous weekly range while shorts were squeezed out of position on Wednesday. The gap down at $19.9k to $20.4k is still in place and breaking any significant structure above still allows the market to capitalize on taking out later longs that got into position over $20k which have yet to be punished. The upside move is still in play until support is broken, a new gap that could be formed come the Monday open on Jan 30th would potentially provide an incentive for market movement as we open the week. Late Longs have not been significantly punished as heavier liquidity is building below us. That being said the weekend trading can decide quite a bit if we start closing 4hr or daily levels below the Weekly Open at $22.6k. The confirmed loss of this level will potentially allow us to short higher up and at the failure of the structure. Shorts have also already been punished and Longs have been by all accounts allowed to keep positions as heavy support still exists. All eyes are on the FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday the 1st of February, with the forecast being an increase of .25% from 4.5% to 4.75% which should be a catalyst to move the market should the forecast not meet the decision. Retail is starting to flip their bias long just as the Asset Managers have both of whom have been largely on the wrong side of the market for well over a year. Conversely, the Dealers and Intermediaries have been largely correct in their positions and their massive adding of shorts in this area which should not be taken lightly as they have been right throughout the bear market. Our thoughts about the Dealers and Intermediaries are simple, don’t bet against them, they have all the data and see all the positions.
CME:BTC1!
by TrendmasterOfficial
Bitcoin CME Report for 10 Jan to 17 Jan and AnalysisCME Overview: Bitcoin and crypto, in general, have had a major run starting most significantly since the start of the new year. BTC1! Is the Bitcoin Chicago Merchantile Exchange Futures trading and comprises institutional trading of Bitcoin. The report that comes out on Fridays shows the actions that occurred by position from the previous Tuesday to the Tuesday before that. Basically, showing a week-long snapshot of institutional positions on Bitcoin and in this idea post from Tuesday 10 Jan to Tuesday 17 Jan which is back-dated by 3 days. Bitcoin CME Report for Tuesday 10 Jan 2023 to Tuesday 17 Jan 2023: From the 10th to the 13th of January price increased from $17.1k to $19.9k before a 2-day break for the weekend. Most notably from Monday the 16th and Tuesday the 17th the CME gapped up, meaning that the close price from Friday (CME closes for weekend trading) the price of Bitcoin increased from $19.9k and opened on Monday at $20.9k. This creates a “Gap”, and by rule, gaps do not have to be filled how ever probability says they have a higher fill rate than not fill rate. That gap has now been reduced from $20.4k to $19.9k but largely still exists. In this period we see that Dealers and Intermediaries (The Exchanges / Brokerages) reduced their longs by 100 positions while still maintaining 3600 short positions. This is very different from what usually occurs in relation to lower timeframe price action as we see Dealers and Intermediaries usually adjusting their positions more regularly to catch the Major Moves Asset Managers still largely out of Position: The other interesting figure from a more accurate perspective is how out of position the Asset Managers have been in the last year plus as they began heavily building longs at the highs in the fall of 2021 and now they have begun to heavily increase their positions in this weeklong period by a further 800 positions. This means that compared to short positions Asset Managers and Institutions are 95.8% Long. Dealers and Intermediaries are still Short: To bring this into perspective Dealers and Intermediaries are still 94.69% Short having heavily shorted in the fall of 2021 and then built and continuously added major shorts from April and from the Summer of 2022, continuously increasing their positions until now. Summary: This most recent COT report is interesting as it shows Asset Managers and Institutionals building longs at the same time as we have good market movement to the upside. This means that we are potentially seeing Asset Managers and Institutionals breaking their losing streak of being out of position consistently in the past 18 months or so. The major move-up in Crypto has been driven by extreme bearish sentiment and heavy shorting in the market as every continuous move-up is met by heavy shorting from retail actors thus providing more liquidity to move price upwards. The gap is down at $19.9k and is still in place and breaking any significant structure above still gives the opportunity for the market to capitalize on taking out later longs that got into position over $20k. The upside move is still in play until support is broken, a new gap that could be formed come the Monday open on Jan 23rd would potentially provide an incentive for market movement as we open the week. Our recommendation is simple, the upside should continue until we have a significant break of structure. Late Longs have not been significantly punished as heavier liquidity is building below us.
CME:BTC1!
by TrendmasterOfficial
2
BTC1! Futures ( BTC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish riseTitle: BTC1! Futures ( BTC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish rise Type: Bullish rise Resistance: 17595 Pivot: 16710 Support: 16090 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for BTC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 17595, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Alternative scenario: Price could head back down to retest the pivot at 16710, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CME:BTC1!Long
by Genesiv
BTC Open Long (eng)Hello Friends. Unfortunately, the final downward exit did not wait A big player closed his short position and managed to get a long position during the multi-month fleet. Yesterday before the stock market closing I fixed the volume impulse, which finally indicated a trend reversal, at least the local one. Closed my previous position from Nov. 08.11.2022 from the price 20200. it appeared +15.87% Opened Long from 16980 From 06.01.2023 time 20:12 (GMT) The arrow indicates only the direction of the open trade - without the final target Thus I got encouraging statistics 11 positive deals and 0 negative ones during the time period since 08.07.2021 up to now That confirms correctness of analysis and approach 283.25% profit for a specified period, using leverage x1 Thank you all for attention and good luck in trading in the New Year!
CME:BTC1!Long
by mr_Plusoviu
5
btc 12-14 [evening update]good evening,,, --- really weak rejection today - almost non existent compared to the trials which spx went through lol. >a sign of strength imo. --- a sign of strength doesn't mean we can't take out the lows though, so that's what i'm bringing to the table today. we grind up into december 23~28th, then pivot down to take out the lows. most people will panic sell down there, but if you know it's the real bottom, you'll be buying. --- not financial advice or anything, just some art to hang on your wall.
by notoriousbids
1
9-22 ethereum update + crypto theories.good evening, i've decided to give you a guys a bit of history leading up to today, and my overall reasoning for changing my bias on the market a few months ago. i'm going to include a vast array of posts, and plot-twists which i've published over the years, feel free to check them out if you're following along with me. --- there was a time long ago when i called the btc+ethereum tops; my first call out was on may 16th 2021 - around the time when btc had hit 60k for the first time. my only basis at the time was a completed 5 wave impulse. 👇 --- that summer after the initial crash, our proprietary indicator called out a weekly buy for the first time since the covid low, and my peoples and i pounced on the opportunity. our indicator turned out to be correct, but at the time i was only looking for a B wave from the summer of 2021 lows, as things looked like they had come down in 5 waves from ath. 👇 --- btc ended up over-extending, and i actually didn't catch the second part of that particular rally, but i did call out the next top successfully on spy, qqq, eth, btc. 👇 --- at the time, i was still looking at this whole correction as one massive wave 4, with a bottom to be made between 40~30k through some kind of flat pattern. but shortly after hitting 40k... btc did not give me the reaction i was looking for. so i re-analyzed my overall theory, and came up with a few flaws in my overall count with the new data which was provided to me by this marvelous market. i figured there could be a chance we could go a lot lower... so we shorted it, because why not right? 👇 --- the same thing happened in that 30k range. was hoping for a bottom to be created, but the same kind of move presented itself as it did in the 40k range - a total trap. so we shorted it again, and again, and again. --- i still have no idea if this whole move down is part of that wave 4 which i've discussed over the last few years - it sure could be, but i doubt it at this point. feel like it's taking a bit longer than it should, and the overall market kinda seems wonky with all of the recent events. --- so my current bias, is the one which you see in this post. 👇 👇 basically an even larger wave 4 than i initially imagined, one of a much higher degree which dates back an entire decade. this particular pattern is prevalent across many markets, in various parts of the world. --- spx500 + nasdaq both are displaying bullish signals yet again & our indicators are starting to call out these wild buys which are pretty rare. it looks like everything is lining up for another pretty large move up in the months ahead, but i think that move is yet again another bull trap, before another major descension into next year. --- nobody knows what comes next, we can only really theorize - but what we do know is, we've gotta be very strategic in this market, and use all of the resources we currently have access to at all times. stay nimble, and humble, be vigilant and top of your toes - expect the unexpected, and bear with me while we get through this wicked market together 😎 cheers 🥂
Long
by notoriousbids
9
bitcoin daily : i will buy bitcoin in 14000 for hold 8-12 monthafter many research above green arrow i will buy bitcoin and predict it will see 18000 THEN 25000 THEN 45000 area in next 6 month if you have bitcoin, dont panic technical say it can go to fibo 161 near 100.000 in next 2 year 14000 and 10.000 is golden signal for long-term buy and invest ALERT: DONT TRADE BITCOIN AND CRYPTO IN CFD OR FUTURES AND LEVRAGE PRODUCTS ,,,,THEY MOVE TOO MUCH WILD AND WILL HARM YOU ...ONLY PHISICAL REAL BUY IS GOOD good luck
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by ramin_trader2006
1
🔥🔥 Futures on ETH: The roof, the roof, the roof is on fireBitcoin, Ethereum and most other cryptocurrencies fell on Tuesday 08-11-2022 following Binance's announcement of its intention to acquire FTX, heightening concerns about liquidity in the industry. According to TradingView, the Total Market Cap - the global value of the entire crypto sector was down 15% on the past day, reaching $813 billion. Bitcoin lost 12%, Ethereum lost 17.5% and Dogecoin lost 25%. The FTX token crashed 84% and Binance's BNB also reversed a sharp previous 17% gain and turned negative, falling 6%. “To protect users, we have signed a non-binding Letter of Intent, planning to fully acquire FTX.com and help manage the liquidity crisis,” Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao tweeted. Zhao added that the deal is pending confirmation of his firm's ability to conduct due diligence on the FTX purchase and the exchange itself. A liquidity crisis plagued the FTX exchange at the beginning of the week amid a sharp decline in FTX Token. A CoinDesk report last week suggested that FTX-owned Alameda Research's balance sheet is heavily dependent on FTT, raising concerns that the two parts of the Bankman-Fried e mpire depend on illiquid cryptocurrencies rather than cash or other liquid assets. The liquidity problems of the crypto sector arose after the crash at the beginning of the year, which erased $340 billion of market capitalization and lowered ETH from $3,900 to $2,200, followed by the collapse of the “stable” Terra UST coin, forming a steady series of crashes in the industry, following behind the increase in interest rates of the Federal Reserve against the backdrop of its fight against "indomitable inflation". The technical picture in ETH futures points to potentially increased risks of further erosion and disruption of the crypto market as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate cycle nears its climax and logical conclusion before the end of 2022. The left scale shows market expectations for a Fed rate by the end of Q1'23. That is well above 10-year US Government Treasuries yield.
CME:ETH1!Short
by Pandorra
$BTC1! Futures on 1HR 10/24 Prediction$BTC1! Futures 10/24 Prediction Looking at BTC, we can see it has been consolidating since 10/11 trading in a sideways pattern looking back at the daily time frame. Consolidation can mean that the price is settling ready for higher highs, however as you can see here on my chart BTC needs some confirmation before it can reach higher highs. Larger whales can see this consolidation and get in, in which they might think that the dust is starting to settle but idealistically this can go either way for what level BTC is currently at. I would want to see three green candles in a row, with the third candle being a confirmation candle. So my conclusion is this for this week, i expect a pullback tonight or tomorrow for BTC as it looks over extended for VWAP. Let me know your thoughts, Thanks, Your Bae, Kelly :)
CME:BTC1!
by angelbaetrades
1