Btcbearish
BTC in slumber? Looking longer term...Taking a longer term perspective on this one, using the weekly candles, reality sets in as i put on my bear glasses.
Historically, BTC saw an almost perfect recovery on the 50MA twice as highlighted in the green boxes, however, printing lower highs, and finally failed its 50MA support in May, resulting in further downward capitulation. For all those bulls out there, long term recovery/reversal might not be so soon as the next foreseeable support lies at the 100MA or 23% fib retracement level.
In the shorter term, BTC might look to retest the 50MA, but i'd be quite sceptical on its success. If i were to make a call, the lowest threshold would be in the 3,500 to 5,000 range. Furthermore, declining volume indicates weak interest in the market. What i'd be looking out for is an over-extension of the RSI, testing the 30 range - this might be a good buy zone.
Happy trading out there :)
BTCUSD short-mid term Analysis (Log scale)As we can see the price fell back under the downtrend line. Sign of Bear trend
A weekly 20MA is showing downtrend too (not shown in chart).
We can spot possible trend reversal zones.
Fib 61.80% zone (7900-7800$)
Fib 78.60% zone (7300-7200$)
Uptrend line of the triangle. (6800-7000$)
Ps:
The breakout of 8167$ level (fib 61.80% of major fib retracement) could be a fake breakout and price could bounce upward.but at the moment seems, to me, the less probable move.
Are bears coming back? Don't fomo!Hi traders as you can see, we had a little bounce due to a engulfing bullish candle, but so many bearish signs have been following:
- Volume decreasing. The volume have been decreasing since the bounce, every day the volume has been lower than the prior candle volume while price has been going up, which is a quite bearish sign, indicating that the bulls are not strong.
- Candles show sentiment of indecision.
- Rising wedge, which is a bearish sign which indicates continuation after a bearish downtrend.
- some people say that it could be a bear flag, that's totally true, which is even more bearish. After a flag formation the price is used to find the bottom.
At this moment I don't see a bull continuation, like I say in other publications, we should wait for a bullish confirmation which indicates us that bull are ready to take action.
BTC pullpack to 6000 levels in weeks to comeLooking at the Fib overlays, BTC is moving around the .5 and finding resistance at the .618 range in the more immediate trend and in the longer range fib.
Applying the Fib time zone we can see that from the formation of the high at Mar 5, the next two segments of the fib trends are a repeat of itself, there are double bottom adams that repeat in zones 1 and 2, I've indicated them with the letter 'A.'
In the 2nd segment, there are two double top eves. Although the zones do not fit the exact trend, there can be a case made for a repeat of this pattern as a continuation of trends in the current trend segment. I am still bearish on BTC, moving to test levels at 6000.
BTC Update, we are in range bound. Close to the bull marketHello Friends,
Please find my update.
I have given the same to my friends in Telegram and now in TV.
We are in the range bound after hitting $11700 mark, the way it was bullish at $11700, we thought it would take $12000 easily, but the market is supreme. Price was pushed down, so the current range is between $7200-$9500.
$7200 is the long-term trendline, break below the end of crypto, a lot of panic selling would start and it can push the price up to $4000-$4800 and recovery is really on the market.
But in the overall, high-level view (the market cycle diagram), we have seen the Anger stage and moving towards the Depression stage where you would see many leave the market. Time is getting closer to the bull run, my timeline is 30 days max to see all the ups and downs then Crypto rally would start and can sustain for 2-4 months.
Lets see the current scenario, We had a small bearish flag which was broken and pushed the price to $8400 and below. Here is the chart of it
I was about to warn the team on the TG but could not here.
Now our resistance is between $8500-$8600 (it was tested 2-3 times, now it is strong resistance)
Positives
1) Trendline from the low connects the dots around $7200 (Strong Trendline Support)
2) Price has formed the Down-trend channel with the recent bounces, we are at the bottom of the channel.
3) Pricing is forming the triangle and Falling wedge pattern, the price is at the bottom of the patterns.
4) Decent volume count and Sellers are being absorbed. Good sign.
Negatives :
1) Market sentiment
2) We are trading below all the moving averages.
Unless a miracle happens, BTC would not be seen in bullish momentum for time being. We are on sell on Raise mode unless MA20($9800) is broken and the price stays above. Brace your self for more downside upto $7000-$7200, panic selling can push the market to $4000-$4800 and then the rally would start. Well, Market is supreme. Break above $11700 is the point for the market sentiment to change to bullish.
Good Luck. Please check my signature for telegram information.
SEC SCARES THE BULLS CALLS THE BEARS - BTCI had previously called out for an Elliot wave inside a channel and a corresponding cup and handle formation. It seemed we were on track to fulfil my targets - we did have BTC pierce the 100 and 200 EMA a few times but it was finding strong support on these averages and the corresponding fib level - 78,6%.
Lets not talk about the past, dwell on the past as it seems that BTC has clearly fallen out of the upward channel and is now forming a potential bear flag!
Like I said in a previous update, BTC was strongly testing the channel and if it were to break support then we would definitely have to turn bearish! I did not take any trades and was only going to trade a potential break out of the wave and cup and handle formation - with TIGHT stops of course.
I have left the previous analysis drawings of the cup and handle with target for this chart. But will eventually remove them once they we are further and they are no longer relevant.
RSI is strongly oversold on the 4h chart at around 24 - on the 1d we have the RSI indicating 44 so we still may see even more downside! BE CAREFUL!
The MACD is showing bearish divergence and on the 1d about to show us the cross of death! Get ready guys this is going to get exciting!
It seems we are back under the downward channel trend-line - blue - and it showed NO evidence of support. BTC shot right through.
What we have now appearing on the 1h and of course even on the 4 hour chart is a potential bear flag. Do not count on the bear flag as we might see a strong reversal to the mean, BTC has been going down for a while. We have to leave more time for the bear flag to form before confirming anything. The bear flag formed should put us down to the 8k level this of course pushes us way past the 50% retracement level and down to the 38% level.
What's going on? Well our market cap is currently sitting at around 394 billion dollars - that's about 50 billion that have been wiped off the face of crypto. And it seems that the catalyst for this FUD is the SEC announcing that all exchanges must register with them:
www.bloomberg.com
This is after previous FUD where the SEC seems to be investigating any and all ICOs which could potentially be seen as securities and creators could face hefty fines and even prison time - I'm looking at you Ethereum.
Please if you have anymore information to share please do so in the comments below and I'll try to keep y'all updated.
This is not financial advice and I am not a financial advisor please do your own research!
Best of luck,
X
BTCUSD Resistance Channel Not Broken 'Check This Out' 21st feb Hi all i wanted to throw this in here for others to see and see if anything could be taken away from this chart in a more precise way, im looking to broaden my learning with the trading cryptocurrencies, but i have to learn more myself first but im seeing patterns and resistance point emerging.And i do not think we come close to breaking throw the first resistance line never mind the fan channel which is not straight it seems to fan out, the problem is we cannot get a 100% accurate assessment of the top of the channel resistance until we hit it enough times so far we have only hit it twice and this was when we dropped from 20k.
I have added this chart for more people to consider that we are not over fighting and we could just be building up for a ABC correction of some kind and then we will break through the resistance and also the top downtrend line resistance.I have tried to keep this as simple as i can as im still learning but, putting ideas out there like this in such a strange volatile market with a lot of shorts in the market now, we have to think out side of the box.
The is a rough chart on the 1 day scale.Add some info to the chart nothing complicated just some patterns that could turn
out to be true.I also want to add some more text underneath this post for people to think about people are mentally physically
drained and have been fighting in a good battle all day, i seen the order books and the market on many different time frames and the
bulls gave every thing they had but allot of shorts in there to try and push the price down did not help.I think we will soon see
another bearish pattern then traders will restock and make bigger risks and we will go through the top resistance channel allot of
things could still happen they might take a 8k position or 9k position and stock back up and go for it again, but we have to think
of some things out side of the box first, they are following this down trend and profiting massively the bull run is coming don't
worry about that but be patient and watch the
Want to help a n00b start trading :) i have a £400 to start to trade very soon small but enough to learn in a few months time i
will be have more knowledge and be able to put more into the community as a whole.Thank you all if you want to read the below
it was some things, i have been thinking about.
BTC -0.84%
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ETH
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0x6C4aa3B856D167977d39b4AB49aC66D967Edd9F2
BCH
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qrd904m4v4k4mz0r4xk2dajkunt02jtg2gw8m8f57t
market have buy/sell markers in place just incase.
BTC Downtrend confirmed -The real lowdown on BTCBTC is both a downward sideways channel (denoted by the red parallel lines) and yet inside another descending triangle.
The current "Bounce" everyone is talking about is nothing more than part of a market wave pattern.
The good news that after the wave completes, it should be followed by an uptrend, and possibly a strong one.
This is isn't going to happen in hours or even days, it will take whatever time it needs to take to complete the cycle and the new cycle to begin.
So far it has followed the market cycle almost to the letter, how far will it go, we have to wait and see.
Keep an eye on the fundamentals, they could play a major part on deciding how quickly the patterns developed - example www.coindesk.com
The Bear Case for BTCIf we calculate the total move as a macro wave 3, starting from the bottom of the Mt gox collapse, $140ish on Coinbase, to 20K, we can find the fib retracement levels of this entire Wave 3.
because we are now assuming wave 3 is done and wave 4 is in place AND this is a macro wave 4, we have many more weeks of bear activity.
Considering a macro wave 4, it would make sense that we have 5 elliott waves down. It appears we are in wave 3 of 4 downwwards and $7.5k is the target.
We will bounce up again for wave 4 of 4. whether we get to the resistance line, i dont know. The fact that we didn't this time makes me think this will be the final bull trap before wave 5 of 4 down.
We can see that the .786 fib of the ENTIRE wave 3 from 2016-2017 provides the PERFECT bounce point for a gentle upwards trendline that will keep btc bullish long term.
(keep in mind this wave 4 can drop as far as $1300 and be above the macro wave 1 before the Mt gox collapse and still be bullish. Not excited about that though...)
BTC - Here comes the PAINMajor update to my post last week - BTC has clearly breached the bearish descending triangle, and it is almost following the classic market cycle to the letter, another thing to notice we are now in fear territory of the market model.
This is why you never "BUY THE DIP" because you don't know how deep it will be. Instead people should be following the trend line and buy when it starts to reverse.
If it is more a than 20 per cent correction then it isn't a correction, it is now a down trend, NEVER EVER BUY AGAINST THE TREND, until there is a reversal.
BTC is bearish on the RSI and MACD indicators, as well.
The signs were clearly there in both the fundamentals and TA, if BTC and the exchanges continue to get hit with threats of regulation then expect BTC to drop to as low as 3K.