Chart Idea - BTC Potential Bull Market TargetI have rarely seen a cup and handle created on weekly this beautifully. Acc to this cup n handle pattern, the TP is coming around $290K. I personally will start booking profits once the monthly RSI hits around 90. Bearish divergence on weekly will give further confirmation to start selling in big chunks. It doesn't matter what the price would be and what the month in that cycle would be. IMO, it will be around 3rd or 4th quarter in 2025. Let's see
Not a financial advice!!
Btcbullish
BTC is gearing up for the next big bull runBitcoin is preparing for an exciting and potentially profitable journey ahead. As the market gathers momentum, BTC is refueling for the next big bull run. Don't miss out on the opportunity to be a part of this thrilling ride. Stay informed, stay ready, and enjoy the rewards of this market surge!
Bitcoin CME Futures Long Position on 1H Timeframe This trade is based on the 1-hour chart of Bitcoin CME Futures, where the price has retraced to the 0.7 Fibonacci level, signaling a potential upward move. We are looking for a bullish continuation to push the trend through the Sunday open, aiming for a higher target as the market gains momentum.
Key Levels:
• Entry: The trade is initiated near the 0.7 Fibonacci retracement level, where a strong support zone is identified.
• Target: The target is set at the upper green zone, which aligns with the expected upward movement through the Sunday open.
• Stop-Loss: A stop-loss is placed below the recent low (indicated by the lower red zone) to limit potential downside risk if the market moves against the position.
Rationale:
The 0.7 Fib level often serves as a critical support point, and the current market conditions suggest a possible upward movement. With the price consolidating at this level, we are positioned to capitalize on a bullish breakout toward the Sunday open.
Risk Management:
By setting a stop-loss below the recent low and adjusting the position size accordingly, we maintain a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Traders should consider adjusting this setup based on their individual conditions, such as position size, broker, and other external factors.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
BITCOIN Is Bullish! Heading To the Highs!After breaking the ATH (All Time High) in March, BTC has formed the a huge Bear Flag, incrementally retracing to a Weekly bullish FVG (Fair Value Gap). The +FVG has proved to be resilient, holding price from going lower... and now price is rallying from said +FVG.
Friday, price formed another +FVG on the Daily TF. This is the bullish indicator I look for to get a sense of the order flow. Should price pullback into the Daily +FVG, it will use it to move higher toward the ATH.
ICT has taught that price will move towards the "smooth edges" when seeking liquidity. Look at the path to the ATH. It is a series of highs that at relatively close together. Compare that to the lows. Price had a hugh heat seeking liquidation wick to sweep the sell side liquidity before moving higher.
The liquidity pools are above now.
Price moves from IRL->ERL->IRL. This is how a trend works. HH->HL->HH.
Price is now moving from Internal Liquidity (FVGs) to External Liquidity (HIghs/Lows). This is how the market moves. It's all about the liquidity.
BTC Gearing Up: Ready to Soar Past Key ResistanceBitcoin has been contending with the 200 EMA for a while now, and the momentum is building. It’s primed to break out. The rocket is ready to launch, and I anticipate BTC will find support at $60,700. From there, it could bounce off that level, push through the $62,073 resistance which isn’t particularly strong, and make its way up to $64,727, where it may encounter significant resistance.
Chart Idea - BTC Swing Long from 52KI am even bullish from here. However, there is a scenario in which I see BTC make another leg down to 52K level which is a 0.618 fib level and full flag's diagonal support as well. Target should be 100K.
Trade Setup
Entry: 52K
TP: 100K
SL: 48K
RR: 12:1
To The Moooooonnn !!
Chart Idea - BTC Swing Long for 6-8 weeksBTC looking bullish for next few weeks. It can certainly go and test $62k to $60k region. However, as per my TA, it's already hit the local bottom and need good bounce from here. Taking a swing long for next few weeks from FWB:65K on the basis of following confirmations.
Confirmations on Daily TF:
- Bull Flag Breakout and Retest
- 0.5 Fib Level Retracement at $64200 region
- Stoch RSI oversold at around 1 region
Trade Setup:
Entry: $65000
TP: $81500
SL: $59999
The Crypto Cycle Indicator is BROKEN!Last summer, as BTC tapped what I thought might be it's pre-halving high of about $31,000 USD, I used www.tradingview.com indicator to point out that we had tapped the trendline that generally indicates we are at or near a price high for the mini bull cycle inbetween halvings.
It was right... for about 3 months. Then the entire crypto space exploded higher, followed soon by stocks and treasuries.
My theory is a part of that was large purchases of Bitcoin were being made for the ETFs that went live in January.
So, time for a change of plans to figure out where tops and bottoms might be.
One thought is Plan B's "Stock to flow" model, which skewed overly bullish last cycle, maybe it skews conservative this time?
Always hard to say.
I have one interesting chart to share here. Just simply putting BTC on a logarithmic scale and drawing a channel to hit the bottoms from 2018, 2020 and 2022, this meant I had to clip the highs from 2017 and cross the top of the next lowest weekly candles, but it hit the spring high of 2021, but the high in November was below the upper trend line.
Now, this is more bullish than the stock 2 flow model, but hey, this cycle seems different with setting new all time highs BEFORE the halving, and the supply being even more restricted now due to the massive buying to put in these ETFs.
F it, let's go. April 2025 target is $330k.
BTC Warning!!!It may seem funny or stupid! But this is my prediction of the current bullish market!
Why ? Because firstly, there are still gaps that have not been filled, and secondly, there are orders that have been left!
So, if Bitcoin is going to see more than 100k, there is a 90% chance that we will not see again the price of 10k until the end of our lives! So, before this big move, he must gather all the lower power and take all the orders...
I hope you are careful...
BTC → Bitcoin Near Resistance! Should We Short? Let's Answer.Bitcoin is in a critical price zone as this bull run has taken us from $15,500 to $52,800. Is this a situation where we short? Or do we prepare for a long?
How do we trade this? 🤔
Shorting may be an option for a lower timeframe such as the 15m or 1HR. I would not be shorting on the Daily or Weekly candles, but waiting for the price to pull back to enter a long.
As outlined in my Bitcoin Lifetime Analysis, I believe Bitcoin is due for a major pullback ranging from 30-50% toward the $25,000-$30,000 price area:
I would target a long entry in the $35,000 price area, set a stop loss either below the $15,500 low and target a 1:3 Risk/Reward, or a stop loss below the previous trading range at $25,000. Look for a double bottom around the Breakout Support area at $31,800 with a strong bull signal and confirmation bars. From there, reasonable take profit targets include 1:1 Risk/Reward at $42,300, just below the current price at $51,000, just below the previous all-time high at $65,000, and just below $100,000 which is a psychologically even number target.
💡 Trade Idea 💡
Long Entry: $35,575.00
🟥 Stop Loss: $22,900.00
✅ Take Profit #1: $42,300
✅ Take Profit #2: $65,000
✅ Take Profit #3: $98,000
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:5
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Three pushes up toward a Resistance Area of $52,800
2. Resistance area is derived from the 2021 Head and Shoulders pattern
3. Wait for the price to pullback between 30-50%, and look for a double-bottom reversal pattern near $35,000
4. Long at 1:5 risk reward and take profit at three key levels
5. RSI is overbought at 78.00 which supports the pullback.
💰 Trading Tip 💰
Trends typically have 3 pushes in either direction before a trend change begins. Along with other market indicators, creates a situation to look for counter-trend trades because the probability of profit is high enough.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and Follow to learn more about:
1. Reading Price Action
2. Chart Analysis
3. Trade Management
4. Trading Psychology
BTC - Bitcoin Falling to $32,000! Or Will It Fall Lower?Bitcoin completed its measured move from the breakout at $31,800, to $37,800 and reached its peak at $48,900! As expected, we witness a sell signal at this level, indicating that the bull run is over. Should we short or long?
How do we trade this? 🤔
My last analysis began just after the confirmation bar closed after the sell signal that wicked at $48,900. This analysis called for a short to just above the trading range support at $38,350:
That short has come and gone, there is not enough area left to short without placing too much initial risk on the trade. It is still reasonable to short on lower timeframes like the 5m and 15m chart, but not the 4HR and Daily as we're doing here. We should be looking for long entries in the Trading Range zone between $31,800 and $37,500, right at the Daily 200EMA support.
If we find a strong bull signal and confirmation candles following that support area, we should enter at least a 1:2 Risk/Reward Ratio long with a position size near our maximum, as justified by these data points and the macro bull trend. Stop loss should be placed below the Trading Range at $34,300. It's reasonable to take half profits at 1:1 Risk/Reward around $38,900, move the stop loss to your entry price to lock in profits, and then swing the rest of the position to at least $41,200.
💡 Trade Idea 💡
Long Entry: $36,600
🟥 Stop Loss: $34,300
✅ Take Profit #1: $38,900
✅ Take Profit #2: $41,200
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Measured Move completed followed by strong sell signal and confirmation bars
2. Two legs into a pullback with a gap to fill to the Daily 200EMA
3. Look for Support to long in the Trading Range near the Daily 200EMA
4. RSI at 38.00 and below the Moving Average, supports the continued to fall to the Trading Range
5. Once a strong signal and confirmation bull bars close above the Daily 200EMA, it's reasonable to long at 1:2 Risk/Reward
💰 Trading Tip 💰
It's reasonable to take half profits at the first resistance target in a long trade, or the first support target in a short trade. Using a 1:1 Risk/Reward Ratio for your first target, you can move your stop loss up to your entry price, locking in profits. This allows you to watch the rest of the trade execute without worry of losing money. This helps improve trading psychology and the equity in your account.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and Follow to learn more about:
1. Reading Price Action
2. Chart Analysis
3. Trade Management
4. Trading Psychology
Short term correction on btcusd.Does the macd indicate weakness of the short-term correction, is the decline over? A rise now could also bring the price above 49k USD, but tomorrow's FED meeting will affect the direction of the price in the short term, so we have to wait to understand just how many cuts they will make on interest rates this year. Once this event has passed, I hypothesize a resumption of the upward trend in the price in the coming weeks, barring sensational events that could change the ongoing scenarios. This is not in question for now.
BTC → Bitcoin Sell-off at $45,800! Time to Short? Let's Answer.Bitcoin made it to the measured move target at $45,800 which was followed by a massive 11% sell-off in the course of an hour. This is the second major sell-off at these levels in under a month. Is this the opportune time to short?
How do we trade this? 🤔
We have several data points in favor of a short. We've completed a Measured Move, three legs up in a bull trend, two massive sell-offs (8% and 11%) in under a month at the major resistance level of $46,000 and an RSI under its Moving Average. I also have my Bitcoin Lifetime Analysis which describes in far more detail, why we need a massive pullback before we see new all-time highs:
We need to wait for a 4HR candle to close below its 200EMA or a Daily candle to close below its 30EMA. You could argue its reasonable to short now, but we lack confirmation, so the probability of profit is lower at this stage. I prefer more probability in my trades.
💡 Trade Idea 💡
Short Entry: $42,600
🟥 Stop Loss: $46,900
✅ Take Profit: $38,300
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:1
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Measured Move Complete!
2. Two Sell-offs near the $45,000 area
3. Three Legs Up in a Bull Channel
4. RSI at 52.00 and below Moving Average, Bias to Short.
5. Wait for Final Sell signal, Short 1:1 Risk/Reward.
💰 Trading Tip 💰
There is over a 60% chance of a measured move after the breakout of a major resistance, normally, a trading range. That means the distance from the trading range resistance, to the top of the breakout, will happen again above the top of the breakout.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
BTC On The Edge !!After the proposed bill to stop the digital currency industry and the prosecution of former officials allied with this industry by Elizabeth Warren and the debt settlement of the FTX exchange, as well as the expiration of $2 billion in options contracts and the $400 million liquidation of long positions at a price of $42,800, The suspension of BitZlato transactions and the filtering of exchange sites by India, we saw an increase in the decline and fall of the market in a short period of time.
But in the meantime, witness the withdrawal of 1 billion dollars of Bitcoin from the exchanges in one day, which was the largest one-day output in the last 12 months, the accumulation of 190 thousand Bitcoin units by Microstrategy and becoming a whale by owning 1% of the entire supply of Bitcoin. It equaled the number of units that the United States has, as well as the removal of the Bitcoin ban in Nigeria and the victory of the first Terraform Labs case against the Commission, Zhao Dong's imprisonment for causing problems in the digital currency industry, Marathon, Arkon and Rivet's investment in miners and Most importantly, approaching the approval of Bitcoin tradable funds, we saw the market grow again and regain important price areas and levels.
As you know, if Bitcoin can stabilize above the $43,600 area, we can expect growth, otherwise, if the price falls below the $41,000 area due to the intensification of bearish sentiments, there is a greater possibility of a fall.
Bitcoin Lifetime Analysis → Reverse to $20,000 Before New Highs?Bitcoin broke out of it's trading range between $25,000 and $32,000 and touched $44,800! Does this mean we're going to new all-time highs? I'm skeptical for a parade of reasons, all of which are based on historical and current data points. Let's dig in!
How do we trade this? 🤔
Recent Data
Since the trend reversal in January 2023 we've had three pushes to the upside, which is a textbook leg count before the trend converts into a trading range. The RSI has also been over 70.00 since October 2023 and the Daily candles leading up to December 4th 2023 could be the exhaustion bars at the end of the bull trend. This is enough evidence to warrant a pull back, likely to the top of the trading range around $32,000.
Historical Data
When are we going to see new all-time highs? Refer to the Monthly chart above. We can see that prior to hitting 3 of the 4 new all-time high events, Bitcoin will make contact with Lifetime Support. The one exception was the 2013 all-time high. Another data point is the Bitcoin halving has occurred prior to *every* new all-time high.
There is one more clue in the Weekly chart to observe! Look at the 2019 high, looks very similar to where we are now: Double-bottom reversal before touching Lifetime Support on Feb 2019, three pushes to the upside hitting the 2019 high, RSI over 70.00, price failed to break the 2019 high then capitulated to Lifetime Support, Bitcoin Halving happened shortly after, THEN went to new all-time highs.
I believe this is the situation we're in right now. If we don't make contact with Lifetime Support, I believe we need to at least come back down into the trading range before hitting new all-time highs. We also have the Bitcoin halving happening in the April 2024 area, all seems conveniently timed based on what we've discussed here!
Trade Options
There are many ways to trade this:
1. Fading your position down to lifetime support: Longing support areas as the price falls, starting with smaller positions and increasing your entry at every level.
2. Waiting for a bounce at lifetime support or in the trading range: Playing the reversal, which includes not entering until you see a reversal signal then you enter with a larger position.
3. Scalp your positions with higher probability of profit, but less profit and more risk in your Risk/Reward Ratio.
To strike a balance between Risk, Reward, and Probability, I'll stick with a standard Reversal Entry, which means we wait for a reversal confirmation. Based on this analysis, we should look to enter after a Lifetime Support or Trading Range bounce around $25,000. Enter in this price area, place a protective stop below the last bear run low at $15,000. Take profit areas are based on previous resistance and the projected lifetime resistance range of $120,000 and $130,000. The first take profit is at the price we just hit around $45,000, the next take profit should be just before the current all-time high around $65,000, the final take profit should be below the projected new all-time high somewhere in the $120,000 and $130,000 area, around $105,000. You could add more take profit areas between $65,000 and $105,000 based on lower timeframe analysis, but we don't have that data yet.
More updates will be provided as the months go by. Let me know your thoughts!
💡 Trade Idea 💡
Long Entry: $30,000
🟥 Stop Loss: $15,000
✅ Take Profit #1: $45,000
✅ Take Profit #2: $65,000
✅ Take Profit #2: $105,000
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:5
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Bullish since January 2023. This is not *THE* bull run.
2. Bull Breakout of $25,000 to $32,000 Trading Range, but RSI overbought.
3. Every New All-Time high was Preceded by Touching Lifetime Support.
4. Bitcoin has not Touched Lifetime Support. Pullback to $20,000 Area.
5. RSI is above 70.00, Supports Pullback.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!