Bitcoin hit that 236 Fib circle I warned you about- and now ?As we come to the end of the week, we see the potential for further drop as PA slides along that 236 Fib circle. ( Red)
It NEVER ceases to amaze me how PA reacts to Fib circles and yet, as if by magic, there is some Macro News at exactly the same time
On this occasion, It seems the US inflation figures on Friday caused this Drop in price.
This Chart is the daily verion of the Weekly chart i often post about weekly candle closes.
I trust this chart
The chance for a drop to arounf 75K is very real and if that fails, down to the 2 Fib extension arounf 68K, though I think that is unlikely
We do need to watch on which side of thois Fib circle PA sits tomorrow. - Idealy, it breaks through tonight and next week candle sits on the "Support" side on the circle.
If it remains as resistance, A Steep drop is highly likely.
In my opinion.
Daily MACD is turned down, heading towards it ssignal line. If that crosses, the Daily becomes very BEARISH
We have to wait and see what happens and be ready to react.
I do have SPOT buy orders around 78 K
If we Drop Lower, I will dig up some funds and buy more lol
WE WAIT FOR WEEKKY CLOSE
Btcbullish
$BTC to the MoonFor BTC, we are still sticking to our "to the moon" analysis 🚀 hehehe. We remain in a trade with the following parameters:
Entry: 81,758
Stop Loss: 79,901
Target: 109,390
This is our trade operation, but we have also increased our hold position at this entry point, aiming for the very long term. Currently, our average price is 42,350.
What reinforces our analysis?
By analyzing the daily and H4 time frames, we can observe:
✅ Bullish continuation purges
✅ SMT (Smart Money Theory) confirming the movement
✅ A shift in the state of price delivery
With that in mind, I remain bullish, and may the moon be just the first target! Let's go, BTC! 🚀
Bitcoin's Wedge Breakout – Big Move Incoming?"Key Observations:
Descending Wedge Breakout:
BTC has been trading within a descending wedge pattern, which is typically a bullish reversal formation.
The price has now broken above the wedge, signaling potential upside momentum.
Buy Setup:
A buy entry is marked around $83,900 - $85,000.
The stop-loss is placed near $79,154 - $80,000, just below the previous support.
The target is set at $90,126, aligning with a key resistance level.
Trade Strategy:
Bullish case: If BTC sustains above the breakout level, it could rally toward $90,000+, offering a strong risk-reward opportunity.
Bearish case: If BTC falls back below $83,305, it may invalidate the bullish breakout and revisit lower support.
Conclusion:
This setup suggests bullish potential with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Traders should monitor BTC’s reaction at the buy zone and adjust their stop-loss accordingly.
Bitcoin BEARISH chart - Some reasons to remain AlertAs I have said many times, I always look to Both sides. Bullish and Bearish.
This way, I manage to always know what I am going to do should a Market Direction change.
I got caught out once before..NEVER AGAIN
So, While so many, including Me, look towards Further gains in 2025, there are some indications that A TOP has already been reached.
There is NO guarantee that another will come in.
The First Clue to a change towards BEARISH is in the main chart.
PA got rejected off the very same Trend line that rejected PA in 2017 and 2021, on all occasions, pushing PA into a Bearish Drop.
That alone should make you Think hard.
Next, we have the NUPL chart ( NET UNREALISED~ED PROFIT LOSS )
The Arrow points towards the line, that once crossed has shown us that the high possible Profits available begin to Tempt traders to lock in profit..to SELL.
Once above this line, the next line has NEVER been crossed. ALL profit taking occurs in this Zone. You Will also notice how in 2021, when we had 2 tops, the NUPL reached High, Twice and then fell as traders Took the profits.
We have just had 2 tops and have just dropped out of the profit taking Range.
We may return, we may not. We have to wait but all the while, understanding the more profit taken now, people who buy at current price ranges will have to wait Longer to claim this same level of profit, assuming that the price Rises from here....Or they are in Loss...
The SOPR ( Spent Outpuit Profit Ratio ) , shows us that these profits have been taken
The thing to see here is the level of Selling, or taking of profit. The SOPR line is down near Neutral,
This shows the Selling has Stopped. if we look back at the previous chart, we see that the level of profit is dropping. Less reason to sell....and while PA Drops as it is, there is even more possible LOSS incurred. The people who bought the Top are now getting worried.
Also notice the "labels" Top ( Bearish signals) and Bottom ( Bullish signals)
We had a Bearish warning around 6 weeks before current Top.
The Bullish signal on the bottom line Stopped about 4 weeks ago and you will notice how the "line" has dropped below the neutral line, indicating people accepting Losses, just to get out....
Again, this does not mean we will continue Lower but it is a Loud Warning Bell
Fot the Level pf profit to return, we need one of Two things, or Both, to happen
1) Price to Drop so we can Buy Low and wait for PA to rise again and so make profit
2) Buy now. ( Buy the Dip ) and Wait and Hope the Market goes to the prices some people say will happen ( Some are Stupid for this cycle BTW )
The MVRV chart helps us see where that Market is heading.
MVRV = Market Value to Realized Value. It is an indicator used to assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued
I am not going to get to techie here but that yellow line is called Z Score and we are in ATH territory when it is above the green MVRV, as can be seen in the chart
We are currently Dropping FAST and Z Score is very slightly BELOW the MVRV line.
This happened in Summer 2024 and we recovered as you can see.
This Means Bitcoin is becoming Less Overvalued but a Long way from Undervalued
What I see here more than anything is how the recent High was up on that line where the 2021 ATH was rejected from. It was the same level of Value that made people say, "OK, This is great, I am out" and Sell.
Again, understand, the higher the BTC price goes, the heavier it is to move. We may not manage to get a Bitcoin Way up where that 1st 2021 ATH was. Hugely over Valued.
THIS is what I am watching more than anything
So, are we in a Bear Market ?
NO - But it would be easy to fall into a Mini Bear here, or longer one, if the market does not recover by mid June Latest
Why ?
Because, as ever, for me, The weekly MACD is the -- THE thing to watch
If that MACD drops below neutral when it arrives at Neutral, That is a Big red Flag....
But , in an ideal world, we should be able to understand the possibility of that happening BEFORE it does.
The charts above help with that - How mush profit is available, is it being Taken, what potential for more
March as a monthly candle, is very likely to close RED, as mentioned in other posts, It is APRIL that will really decide where we go next. It needs to be GREEN, even if only marginally.
My decision point is if the MVRV continues to Fall past that 236 fib line.....and stays below
Then the MACD and SOPR
If Capitulation begins - I BUY MORE - at the Bottom ( possibly around 65K - But I do not expect hat this year......
Bear Markets are not all bad....................
Have AI sold any Bitcoin Yet ?
NO - thankfully, I still hold enough profit on my earlier buys to cover the smaller losses I may make while I begin to buy again now, which I am doing, in small quanties...Just incase we move higher soon..Because, as I said before, I look to both sides....and I am more Bullish than Bearish right now.....But open to change.
I hope you all understand this logic
BTCUSDT Targeting 120K with 20%-25% Gains Ahead!BTCUSDT is currently showing a strong bounce from its key support level, a critical area that has historically held up during periods of price correction. The price action suggests that BTCUSDT is poised to make a significant move upward, especially as it is testing this support with good volume backing the move. Traders are watching closely as Bitcoin shows resilience and the potential for a price rally toward the 120K level. With expectations of a 20% to 25%+ gain, this setup presents an exciting opportunity for those looking to capitalize on Bitcoin’s bounce off this major support zone.
Support and resistance levels play a vital role in technical analysis, and BTCUSDT's current price action is a clear example of how these levels can guide market behavior. After a period of consolidation near the support level, the market has begun to show signs of upward momentum, with solid volume confirming that buying pressure is increasing. If BTCUSDT continues to hold above this support and breaks through resistance, it could trigger a strong rally, pushing the price closer to the 120K mark. This move is in line with broader market trends, with increasing investor interest suggesting that Bitcoin is gearing up for the next leg of its bullish cycle.
The good volume behind the bounce is a positive indicator for traders, as it signals that the market is backing the move. As more investors take notice of the support and resistance levels, the likelihood of a breakout increases, potentially leading to a sharp upward movement. With Bitcoin’s historical ability to break through resistance levels after strong support holds, there’s a growing sense of optimism that BTCUSDT could see further gains in the near term. The projected 20% to 25%+ return is within reach, especially if the momentum continues to build.
Traders should continue to monitor key support and resistance zones, as these levels will be crucial in determining whether the price can sustain its bullish momentum. Bitcoin’s next move could be a critical one, and timing the entry could make all the difference in capturing these potential gains. With the market showing increasing interest in BTCUSDT, this setup could lead to a rewarding opportunity for those positioned correctly as Bitcoin aims for new highs.
The BTC/USD chart on the 4-hour time frame shows a bullish strucThe BTC/USD chart on the 4-hour time frame shows a bullish structure forming, with higher highs (HH) and a break of structure (BoS) confirming bullish momentum. The price is near a key support zone around 94,000–96,000, aligned with a retest of the descending trendline. If this support holds, a rally toward the resistance zone at 104,000–106,000 is likely. However, a breakdown below 94,000 could invalidate this setup. Monitor price action near the support zone for confirmation before taking action. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Chart Idea - BTC Swing Long from 52KI am even bullish from here. However, there is a scenario in which I see BTC make another leg down to 52K level which is a 0.618 fib level and full flag's diagonal support as well. Target should be 100K.
Trade Setup
Entry: 52K
TP: 100K
SL: 48K
RR: 12:1
To The Moooooonnn !!
Chart Idea - BTC Potential Bull Market TargetI have rarely seen a cup and handle created on weekly this beautifully. Acc to this cup n handle pattern, the TP is coming around $290K. I personally will start booking profits once the monthly RSI hits around 90. Bearish divergence on weekly will give further confirmation to start selling in big chunks. It doesn't matter what the price would be and what the month in that cycle would be. IMO, it will be around 3rd or 4th quarter in 2025. Let's see
Not a financial advice!!
BTC to100K: Riding the Bullish Breakout with Strong FundamentalsBTC is currently showing strong bullish momentum, with both technical and fundamental factors in alignment. The trade aims to capitalize on this momentum towards the 100K level, with a cautious eye on potential selling pressure. Pay attention to the consolidation range, as further upward movement could solidify BTC’s path to the target.
Technical Overview:
• Trend: We are in a strong bullish trend, trading well above the 200MA, indicating sustained upward momentum.
• Breakout & Retest: Recently, BTC saw a breakout and a successful retest, reinforcing this trend.
• Range Consolidation: Currently consolidating within a range, with a low at 85K and a high at 93K. I’ve taken a mid-range entry to capitalize on any upward movement within this channel.
• Plan: If sellers aggressively push the price above the 85K level, I will consider reentry opportunities aligned with price action.
Fundamental Drivers:
1. Global Adoption & Regulation: The Fed’s constructive stance on digital assets, combined with increasing demand and institutional adoption, is supporting BTC’s upward trajectory.
2. Economic Conditions: As inflation and interest rates remain focal points, Bitcoin is being viewed as an inflation hedge. Additionally, El Salvador’s adoption of BTC as legal tender is adding to the credibility and mainstream adoption of cryptocurrency.
3. Bitcoin ETF: The SEC’s positive outlook on a BTC-based ETF is expected to boost demand and further legitimize BTC within traditional financial markets.
4. Geopolitical Factors: War-driven demand, potential sanctions on Russian money, and global financial uncertainty are all fueling demand for BTC as a decentralized, safe-haven asset.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
BTC is gearing up for the next big bull runBitcoin is preparing for an exciting and potentially profitable journey ahead. As the market gathers momentum, BTC is refueling for the next big bull run. Don't miss out on the opportunity to be a part of this thrilling ride. Stay informed, stay ready, and enjoy the rewards of this market surge!
Bitcoin CME Futures Long Position on 1H Timeframe This trade is based on the 1-hour chart of Bitcoin CME Futures, where the price has retraced to the 0.7 Fibonacci level, signaling a potential upward move. We are looking for a bullish continuation to push the trend through the Sunday open, aiming for a higher target as the market gains momentum.
Key Levels:
• Entry: The trade is initiated near the 0.7 Fibonacci retracement level, where a strong support zone is identified.
• Target: The target is set at the upper green zone, which aligns with the expected upward movement through the Sunday open.
• Stop-Loss: A stop-loss is placed below the recent low (indicated by the lower red zone) to limit potential downside risk if the market moves against the position.
Rationale:
The 0.7 Fib level often serves as a critical support point, and the current market conditions suggest a possible upward movement. With the price consolidating at this level, we are positioned to capitalize on a bullish breakout toward the Sunday open.
Risk Management:
By setting a stop-loss below the recent low and adjusting the position size accordingly, we maintain a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Traders should consider adjusting this setup based on their individual conditions, such as position size, broker, and other external factors.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
BITCOIN Is Bullish! Heading To the Highs!After breaking the ATH (All Time High) in March, BTC has formed the a huge Bear Flag, incrementally retracing to a Weekly bullish FVG (Fair Value Gap). The +FVG has proved to be resilient, holding price from going lower... and now price is rallying from said +FVG.
Friday, price formed another +FVG on the Daily TF. This is the bullish indicator I look for to get a sense of the order flow. Should price pullback into the Daily +FVG, it will use it to move higher toward the ATH.
ICT has taught that price will move towards the "smooth edges" when seeking liquidity. Look at the path to the ATH. It is a series of highs that at relatively close together. Compare that to the lows. Price had a hugh heat seeking liquidation wick to sweep the sell side liquidity before moving higher.
The liquidity pools are above now.
Price moves from IRL->ERL->IRL. This is how a trend works. HH->HL->HH.
Price is now moving from Internal Liquidity (FVGs) to External Liquidity (HIghs/Lows). This is how the market moves. It's all about the liquidity.
BTC Gearing Up: Ready to Soar Past Key ResistanceBitcoin has been contending with the 200 EMA for a while now, and the momentum is building. It’s primed to break out. The rocket is ready to launch, and I anticipate BTC will find support at $60,700. From there, it could bounce off that level, push through the $62,073 resistance which isn’t particularly strong, and make its way up to $64,727, where it may encounter significant resistance.
Chart Idea - BTC Swing Long for 6-8 weeksBTC looking bullish for next few weeks. It can certainly go and test $62k to $60k region. However, as per my TA, it's already hit the local bottom and need good bounce from here. Taking a swing long for next few weeks from FWB:65K on the basis of following confirmations.
Confirmations on Daily TF:
- Bull Flag Breakout and Retest
- 0.5 Fib Level Retracement at $64200 region
- Stoch RSI oversold at around 1 region
Trade Setup:
Entry: $65000
TP: $81500
SL: $59999
The Crypto Cycle Indicator is BROKEN!Last summer, as BTC tapped what I thought might be it's pre-halving high of about $31,000 USD, I used www.tradingview.com indicator to point out that we had tapped the trendline that generally indicates we are at or near a price high for the mini bull cycle inbetween halvings.
It was right... for about 3 months. Then the entire crypto space exploded higher, followed soon by stocks and treasuries.
My theory is a part of that was large purchases of Bitcoin were being made for the ETFs that went live in January.
So, time for a change of plans to figure out where tops and bottoms might be.
One thought is Plan B's "Stock to flow" model, which skewed overly bullish last cycle, maybe it skews conservative this time?
Always hard to say.
I have one interesting chart to share here. Just simply putting BTC on a logarithmic scale and drawing a channel to hit the bottoms from 2018, 2020 and 2022, this meant I had to clip the highs from 2017 and cross the top of the next lowest weekly candles, but it hit the spring high of 2021, but the high in November was below the upper trend line.
Now, this is more bullish than the stock 2 flow model, but hey, this cycle seems different with setting new all time highs BEFORE the halving, and the supply being even more restricted now due to the massive buying to put in these ETFs.
F it, let's go. April 2025 target is $330k.
BTC Warning!!!It may seem funny or stupid! But this is my prediction of the current bullish market!
Why ? Because firstly, there are still gaps that have not been filled, and secondly, there are orders that have been left!
So, if Bitcoin is going to see more than 100k, there is a 90% chance that we will not see again the price of 10k until the end of our lives! So, before this big move, he must gather all the lower power and take all the orders...
I hope you are careful...