Bitcoin Halving Cycles | Cycle Bottom to Previous ATHWe're going to take a look at the previous cycle bottoms to previous all-time highs and the time it took from those two points. Our current cycle bottom was FTX collapsing in November, with them creating the cycle top back in 2021 for the notorious double top. The only other scenario in history where we've retested the cycle bottom levels was in the 2015 bear market, however, that came relatively quickly and we reversed quite strongly after that. No cycle is exactly alike, as that would be too easy, however, we can get a grip on the general timelines / where we are in the current cycle.
This cycle is a little bit different in the sense that in the past 3 cycles, we've had a 2-year bear market starting in the odd years, however, this time, we truly bottomed in November '22 across the board.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
2012 Cycle Bottom to Previous ATH:
From the bottom of the cycle, it took 392 days for Bitcoin to re-claim it's previous all-time highs.
2015 Cycle Bottom to Previous ATH:
From the bottom of the cycle, it took 658 days for Bitcoin to re-claim it's previous all-time highs.
2019 Cycle Bottom to Previous ATH:
From the bottom of the cycle, it took 644 days for Bitcoin to re-claim it's previous all-time highs.
Where do we stand today?
Basing this idea completely on historical trends / 4-year cycles, we can conclude that the three cycles took 392, 658, and 644 days, respectively. Also something to note, volume has been decreasing on Bitcoin since the first cycle in terms of Bitcoin traded. This could easily be marked off as increase in price = less whole coins moving around.
Anyways, let's take the mean of these three numbers and apply it to our current cycle bottom found on August 1st of 2022.
392 + 658 + 644 = 1701 / 3 = 564.67 days on average from cycle bottom to previous ATH. That would mark us off at February 19th, 2024 reaching the previous ATH:
Let's say we want to take out the first cycle as an outlier, as 658 and 644 are fairly close to each other. Add those two up and we get 1,302. Divide that by 2 and we get 651.
We'd get a date around May 13th, 2024 which would be about a month after the halving. The halving is right around the corner and the only question is if we're going to see a buy the hype leading up to it and a sell the news, or a buy-train after the halving without a pump fake.
We've already seen the Litecoin halving on August 2nd, 2023 (earlier this month), and the next Bitcoin Halving is coming up in April of next year.
As always, please do your own research, this chart is intended for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.
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