Btcd
BTC.D Analysis: Retest of Key Area Highly LikelyBitcoin Dominance Looking
Bitcoin dominance looks very strong but BTC has entered the range. So I think dominance may follow a calmer course for a while, a few coins that have separated from the herd may make good moves in these few days, but it is too early to claim that the general atmosphere is completely bullish, because SP500 seems to be making a deep correction and is giving signals of this. I do not buy anything during the New Year, and I will not buy, but then I will spend all of these corrections with buying because I believe that 2025 will be good.
A retest of this area in BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance) seems very possible based on current market behavior. This level holds significance as a potential reaction zone for further movements.
Also, I see no point in saying that this view of dominance supports the blue box analysis I shared here:
Because when BTC goes down to blue box we will see an upside move on dominance then we blue box of dominance chart will support the price, we will see an upmove on both.
Key Points:
Current Setup: BTC.D is approaching a critical area of interest.
Retest Likelihood: Market dynamics suggest a probable revisit to this zone.
Focus: Monitoring the reaction at this level for future directional clarity.
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My Previous Analysis
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BTC DECEMBER FOMC Going into FOMC the consensus is we'll see a 25bps cut from the FED (95% chance), this would take interest rates from 4.75% to 4.5%. Because the expectation of a cut is so certain, we can assume that the markets have priced this in so baring any craziness in the form of a different result we should see market sentiment remain the same, bullish.
A FED pause,(although unlikely according to data) would be very bearish in the the short term in terms of volatility. I would expect to see price revisit the $98-99K mark where the 4H 200EMA would roughly be. In a bullmarket the 4H 200EMA can be used as a great support level often bouncing off of it.
For a 25bps cut which is the expected outcome, we have two paths IMO. The bullish path is consolidation under the ATH then a break above, retest and off we go towards $110,000. The bearish path is a loss of this key S/R level after a consolidation above support and break under with a confirmed retest of new resistance. I know it's typical "could go up, could go down", however it's the context that matters here.
Alts have taken a back seat for the last week or so, BTC.D at a key level and a rejection off this level would mean alts can play catch-up while as BTC consolidates. We very rarely see BTC drop and altcoins pump so this is the most likely outcome to me baring no upsets in FOMC.
Btc Dominance appears to be getting rejected from channel retestBitcoin dominance chart just recently bounced back up in an attempt to climb back inside the ascending channel it recently broke under and as of now both candles that sent a wick back inside the channel upon the current retest both closed their candle bodies with the channel still as resistance. Since then we are now seeing the current candle appear to head lower again suggesting the bottom trendline of the channel will be confirmed as solidified resistance, in which case price action has a much higher probability at this point of validating the breakdown and dumping to the 53% target. If this occurs we are very likely to see alt season really tart too kick in here soon. *not financial advice*
Can we consider this a retest?In my last post on bitcoin dominance I noted that for the first time in a year and a half we had broken our wedge to the downside. This was hugely bullish for altcoins and indeed, we saw some massive pumps occurring in the space. But I also cautioned that we could reverse and head back up to retest the underside of our wedge. This is a classic technical move. I call it "Kiss Mamma Good-bye" as price always seems to like to come back one more sentimental time to an area of supreme significance before moving on. This retest would then cause alts to drop significantly, liquidating many. And we saw this occur this past week. So, can we consider this our retest? I know we didn't touch the underside of our wedge completely but bulls are in a hurry here. They want one last good pump before Christmas. And if my chart is correct, I think we'll get that.
✌️ Stew
The fall of Bitcoin dominance and the dawn of AltcoinsAltseason is about to begin! Hope you're on the last type finished accumulating your altcoins. According to blockchain data, the market maker has distributed its Bitcoin and finished accumulating altcoins. The chart shows an Adam and Eve top and a double bottom at the bottom. In my last forecast I was a bit wrong with the scale, but the point was correct and the target was reached! Dominance <53% is on the way!
USDT.D retest 5.5%?USDT.D been falling for 90days with no real retests, this might be it.
Also fully completed previous projection of a Dump.
Fibb Golden zone around 5.5%
Also BTC looks like it's in Diamond Top pattern. If that plays out we might see CRYPTOCAP:BTC at $85k.
But this is Bullrun so probably some Elon musk post will randomly revive market out of nowhere and the dump will stop mid way.
Keep eyes on twitter.
BTC | BITCOIN ATH | ALTSEASON A comprehensive analysis today on my take regarding Bitcoin , BTC All time High, and for how long we can still expect to see altseason.
When I say altseason, what I am referring to is hard pumps and large increases, scattered across the altcoin market.
In the previous BTC update, I considered an ATH between 99k and 105k. More on that here :
Today's main "concern" is really whether or not the alt-rallies are finished - and I say, not yet .
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BINANCE:BTCUSD CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
Is It Really Happening: When Altseason Will Begin?Hello, Skyrexians!
Today we will observe the CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D chart, this is the chart which shows the Bitcoin dominance on the crypto market. During last 2 years it has growing slowly, but permanently. It caused to this strange cycle where Bitcoin has broken ATH, while some altcoins set the new low every month. Is this nightmare really finished or altcoins will continue suffering? Let's discuss today.
On the chart you can see weekly time frame which showed two completed altcoin seasons: in 2017 and 2021. Last altseason has started after reaching 0.618 Fibonacci level from the previous altseason. Then we saw the big drop to 40%. Let's notice that this altseason has been started after flashing the signal on Bullish/Bearish Reversal Bar Indicator . As always, alerts from this indicator are automatically replicated on my accounts. You can find the information in our article on TradingView .
Currently this indicator has been flashed 2 bearish reversal bars in the 0.61 Fibonacci retracement zone. If today weekly candle closes with this signal and next week there will be the confirmation - 58% breakdown, there is a high chance that real altseason come the market.
Best regards,
Skyrexio Team
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1.5 Year BTC Dominance Wedge Finally Breaks!Traders, for a year and a half we have lived inside of this bearish BTC.D wedge. Well, last week it finally broke. This week it looks like we'll get our confirmation of this break. This means altcoin season is officially underway (if you haven't had proof enough already).
As BTC continues its sideway price action, various alts have been taking their turn playing catch up. I expect this type of price action to continue through December for alts though they may incur a bit of a pull back at some point as BTC.D heads back up to retest the underside of that wedge. Once hit though, expect our alts to run again.
✌️ Stew
Bitcoin Dominance Halving Cycles and Alt SeasonsThis chart shows that in the 2 recent halving cycles Bitcoin Dominance had a massive pullback 240 days after the halving. We are now approaching the next 240 day cycle after the most recent halving earlier this year.
240 Days after Halving = December 17 2024.
ETH | ALTCOINS | All Time High NOT IN - Here's WhyToday as I looked at the Ethereum chart, I noticed that unlike BTC - a new ATH has not yet been formed. Interesting, I thought to myself, since ETH usually moves quite closely with BTC.
That is until I pulled up my trusted 3 (Bitcoin, Bitcoin Dominance and TOTAL3) and overlayed Ethereum. A key insight emerged from watching past behavior, leading me to the conclusion that the All Time High for Ethereum is still coming (and likely soon).
Don't miss yesterday's update on an Alt that can still see great increases:
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COINBASE:ETHUSD CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
BTC ATH | Bitcoin Dominance | Alt Season Interesting insights can be gather from the Bitcoin dominance chart and the altcoin chart (TOTAL3).
You can see some interesting patterns when you overlap them, and monitor for previous "fractals" or patterns.
Some of the key insights you can gain from this combo:
👉 The BTC peak / ATH, or not
👉 The end of Altseason
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COINBASE:BTCUSD CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3
ALT SEASON #3After years of waiting, countless false starts, and more hopium than a bull market BBQ, we’re finally here: Alt Season 3 is upon us—or so my trusty weekly Bitcoin dominance chart is screaming.
For the uninitiated, this chart is basically the ancient oracle of crypto, and it’s saying, ‘Hey, Bitcoin, take five. It’s time for the alts to shine.’
Zoom in close and you’ll see the subtle shift—the kind of shift that makes your favorite meme coin go from $0.00001 to ‘retire on a yacht’ territory (not financial advice, obviously).
TL;DR: Pack your bags, but don’t forget to double-check the fundamentals of the random farm token you’re YOLO-ing into. Alt Season 3 is here to remind us all that dreams are made… and sometimes rugged. Stay sharp, my friends. 🚀
$TOTAL3 & $OTHERS Alt Season Breakout vs $BTC.D !!!If you’re still wondering whether Alt Season is here or not, this is the only chart you need to see to prove it is.
BTC.D has been going down while CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 has broken previous ATH with CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS lagging a bit behind.
This shows the rotation from CRYPTOCAP:BTC -> Mid Caps -> Small Caps
Monetary policy, more importantly rate cuts, have signaled “Risk On”, and the market has responded accordingly.
Bitcoin Dominance: Elliott Wave and Harmonics ComboBitcoin Dominance ( BTC.D) is giving a fantastic trading setup.
It's preparing a BIG Bullish Swing.
From an Elliott Wave point of view, a bullish Impulse Wave is about to start.
In this case I'm talking about Super-Cycle (C) (turquoise).
Moving on to Harmonic Patterns, there are two:
The smaller one is the Bullish Shark, which is preparing its completion.
The second one, and the bigger view, is the Cypher Pattern, which will commence one the Shark is done.
So, bottom line: BTC.D is gonna start flying, and will push the Crypto market into a fantastic Bull Cycle.
Bitcoin Dominance ( BTC.D ) Technical Analysis:
* Elliott Wave Impulse: Super-Cycle (C) (turquoise)
* Harmonic Pattern: Bullish Shark
* Harmonic Pattern: Bullish Cypher
* Double Bottom
* Bullish Divergence
* 88.6% Fibonacci Retracement
* 61.8% Fibonacci Extension
* Demand Zone
Conclusion: Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is and always will be the one and only driver of the Crypto Markets.