Beyond FOMO: Strategic Analysis of BTC.D and Market ProspectsLet's begin by examining CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D on the monthly timeframe. Here we see the old EXP model, which formed in December 2020. This model reflected the decrease in bitcoin dominance during 2020-2021. For our current analysis, we're interested in the level of the first point — 73.02%.
On the weekly timeframe, we see an AMEXP model that formed in January 2023 and effectively describes the entire current upward trend.
Note the price reaction from the model levels of 51.7% and 59.64%. Within this model, we have two more upper levels: 68.9% and 90.36%.
The dominance level of 90.36% seems unrealistic from a common sense perspective: such a scenario is only possible with a total collapse of the entire crypto market, when all assets (including bitcoin) would depreciate to the point where bitcoin's capitalization would constitute 90% of the entire market. I hope we never see these values. However, reaching the 68.9% level seems quite likely.
Most likely, the price will try to break through the 68.9% level (we may see a bounce from this level, which might be mistakenly perceived as the beginning of a new alt season). After that, the price will likely make a new maximum and rise above the 73.2% level. And only then will we finally see the formation of a downward trend in bitcoin dominance.
What might be happening in the market if our bitcoin dominance analysis proves correct?
Let's look at the #BTC chart, where the expansion model was validated on the weekly timeframe (green model):
According to the model levels, we can expect growth to at least $109,354, and at maximum — to a new all-time high (ATH) with targets of $115,116, $116,757, and even $152,723 or $174,102 (although the probability of reaching the last two targets, despite their presence in the model, is relatively low).
If we look at CRYPTO:ETHUSD , the picture looks significantly worse — the asset is in a deep bearish phase.
Against the backdrop of general positive sentiment, CRYPTO:ETHUSD may grow to $2 059 or even to $2 626, but we will consider this merely as a bounce. We can only talk about a real trend change when the price moves beyond the yellow model.
Everyone is waiting for the reversal of bitcoin dominance (we have only calculated the most probable reversal point), as its exponential growth should be replaced by the long-awaited alt season.
However, few consider a possible negative scenario: the correction of bitcoin dominance may occur against the backdrop of a general market decline, where bitcoin will fall faster than altcoins. Against the background of growing macroeconomic uncertainty (problems in the global economy have not disappeared, they continue to accumulate, and no matter how they try to "postpone" them — this will not pass without a trace), we consider the negative scenario to be the main one.
For the past year, everyone has been saying that bitcoin is a super-reliable asset, and if something goes wrong — you need to buy bitcoin. Most retail investors love bitcoin and hate altcoins — largely because they have many unprofitable altcoins in their portfolio and no bitcoin. Each time, missing the moment to buy bitcoin, they succumbed to FOMO. Now, as bitcoin moves toward a new maximum, everyone is rushing to buy it again.
At the same time, we have a market where 80-90% of participants are in large losses. For most assets to just break even (not to mention profits), they need to grow by 300-400%.
Of course, we're not saying everything will necessarily be bad, but we prefer to stick to a strategy that primarily takes into account the negative scenario. For now, we will refrain from investment positions and give preference exclusively to speculative ones.
