BTC.D market updateHello, Traders!
After falling steeply during March-May this year, there has been a rebound in the BTC dominance chart.
The pattern in the market remains as follows: when Bitcoin's price drops, altcoins lose more value than Bitcoin, and when it rises, altcoins lag significantly behind. This shows us that Index (Bitcoin) is stronger than other assets in the market. This dynamic causes the BTC's dominance to increase.
At the moment, the price value on the dominance chart is in the range of 46.05 - 50.12
As can be seen from the past, this range served as a reversal zone in 2017-2018.
Altcoins have lost between 75% and 90% from their highs so if the current trend continues, we could see an exit to 50.12 on the dominance chart after which the market will reverse.
Good luck and watch out for the market!
Btcd
$BTCDOM/USDT 30m (Binance Futures) Ascending channel breakdown#BitcoinDominance broke-down locally and is likely to retrace in the coming days.
50MA seems to be acting as resistance now, that would be a good thing for altcoins relief!
Current Price= 1113.8
Sell Entry = 1116.2 - 1128.8
Take Profit= 1073.0 | 1025.2 | 992.5
Stop Loss= 1162.2
Risk/Reward= 1:1.25 | 1:2.45 | 1:3.27
Expected Profit= +17.64% | +34.68% | +46.32%
Possible Loss= -14.16%
Fib. Retracement= 0.382 | 0.618 | 0.786
Margin Leverage= 4x
Estimated Gain-time= 5 days
Bitcoin Dominance Update - BTC.D Projections & Possible PathsWe've moved back up to the red box as expected. I still believe we'll see more correction up, either towards the top of the red box, or possibly even a re-test of the neckline. More likely the former.
Projections & potential paths towards them on the chart.
Previous BTC.D predictions from the same chart and other related ideas linked below.
BTC.D downwards pressureRecently the upwards impulses from BTC .D have been met with ever increasing downwards momemtum resulting in a slumping action. This is usually a typical bearish indication of reduced momentum. I suspect BTC will start losing dominance to alts once it reaches the strong resistance zone indicated by the white box. Take this into consideration when placing long positions in assets. We could potentially see BTC .D fall to the lower zone of interest indicated by the red arrow.
This movement is supported by TA such as fib levels, stoch and other various trend indicators.
In terms of FA, the picture is more blurry, lots of talk of an SPX crash may impact this movement and abrupt changes in the price of GOLD also - be on your feet.
Will keep this idea updated.
BTC.D - Is the Alt Season Over?Bitcoin Dominance is Increasing. This statement is echoing in the crypto space now. But what is it and is the Alt Season Over?
Bitcoin Dominance is the relative market capitalization, i.e. comparing the total supply of circulating tokens multiplied by the current price against the price of fifteen cryptocurrencies.
What is Alt Season?
If 75% of the Top 50 coins performed better than Bitcoin over the last season (90 days) it is Altcoin Season.
Is it an Altcoin Month?
If 75% of the Top 50 coins performed better than Bitcoin over the last 30 days it is Altcoin Month.
In the above chart three (3) things can be clearly identified:
1. BTC Dominance is Increasing.
2. BTC Volumes are Decreasing
3. Inverse Price Action against ETH and LTC (strong correlation!!)
What can we extrapolate?
If, the BTC Dominance keeps increasing the prices of AltCoins will follow a downward trajectory.
What can impact Bitcoin Dominance?
BTC volumes need to hike up for BTC to decrease.
Is the Alt Season Over?
NO, we are still in Alt Season.
It is Altcoin Month?
NO, it's BTC month.
Altcoins are losing the battle but, in the end, they will Win the War!!
Keeping a close eye on BTC volumes is imperative. The moment we see a breakout in volumes from the average trend line BTC.D will start to decline.
Do share your comments, feedback, and opinion.
Bitcoin Dominance Update - BTC.D goes Back Up Before DownI think we're likely headed back up towards the red box, possibly 53%, and possibly even a massive run back up to the HS neckline where we began the big drop.
If at any of those points we turn back down - we finish correcting up and head back down to finish its our return to its previous bottom @ ~36.39%
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Where is Crypto Going❓ Let's Take a Look👀After a weekend typified by extreme amounts of FUD, looks like the lights have started to shine through the clouds and have illuminated that crypto does indeed still exist. But for how long? Are we going back to 10k? Will everyone lose their life savings - AGAIN. Let's look.
But first, let's discuss the whole dump thing to get some context. It seems at this point it was at least somewhat a market manipulation event, with a lot of the initial cascade of BTC sold all at once to start it being collected over the weeks prior in small amounts. Would not surprise me if this was meant to coincide with the china ban (yeah again, and it still works! crazy!) in order to really get the gears going.
Anyway a bunch of retailers panicked, not helped by the lot of folks online shouting it's the start of the bear season we're all gonna be poor from every mountain top.
Honestly - if you were one of these people going around to your chat rooms spreading FUD you have nobody to blame for the market crash but yourself as you were a part of the problem.
Now, surprise, everyone is pro crypto and FOMO'ing back into the market. Really can't make this shit up.
Enough about this madness let's look at some weekly candles to ease our mind.
BITCOIN
BTC is holding on to a fairly firm EMA 50 weekly support, but of course we want to be above our 21 so if we can't rectify that situation ASAP we're looking at a short term bull trap or accumulation for quite a bit.
I believe my earlier prediction on this ultimately being quite bullish for alts still stands despite the retrace being sharper than expected - still within the boundaries. find that below:
RSI is in a great place for more growth, though TD9 is showing we could see more consolidation at this level or downside before the big reversal.
BITCOIN DOMINANCE
I use this chart as my road map for bullruns, as it works really really well. I suspect we're not done the bullrun as BTC.D still has a lot of cycle left to complete it seems.
We saw a Dead Cat Bounce I suspect back up to the channel we previously broke down out of, retracements are expected ultimately and the stopping point is crucial - here we can see that the retracement stopped right where we should see it stop for continued movement down. Remember, BTC.D dropping gives us alt season, we want this bastard to drop.
I suspect the floor around the 30-40% range, which gives us a good amount of market cap still to flood into the alts especially if money comes back into the market en masse.
When this completes it's movement downward I suspect we will be done with the bullrun for real.
TOTAL MARKET CAPITALIZATION
We stopped in our liquidity area from January, which is quite interesting from a technical perspective. Retracements are expected to stop in the liquidity area if you're expecting it to continue the movement afterwards, it seems that because the climb was so big, the retracement was likewise quite dramatic, but given the current stopping level I believe there's a good chance of continued a big bounce up from here.
TOTAL 2 - MARKET CAP EXCL. BTC (ALT CAP)
This is where things get interesting to me. While the market capitalization itself retrace to january levels, we see clearly by this and BTC.D that the alts has the same general movement of retracement, but to a much higher level than we saw in January. This further adds to my speculation that the bull run is not over, especially for the alt coins.
OVERALL THOUGHTS
If you bought this dip I think you're probably going to make a killing, at least in the short to mid term. If stock to flow is to be believe we could see BTC hit 100k or 200k+ if you're using STFX. After this point we could see up to an 80% retracement in the overall market, bringing us back down to the 20k level for a brief spell before normalizing.
The takeaway if we have more money to make here before we have to really worry, and those who hodl'd through the blood and bought the dip should see their testicular fortitude payoff soon. That said, make sure we're taking profit on this wave - Once we're done this leg it could be a while before we get another chance, though this leg could conceivably last in to early next year.