#BTCDOMUSDT #1D (Binance Futures) Ascending trendline breakdownBitcoin Dominance is pulling back towards 50MA resistance on daily, seems likely to get rejected next.
⚡️⚡️ #BTCDOM/USDT ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: Binance Futures
Signal Type: Regular (Short)
Leverage: Isolated (6.0X)
Amount: 6.0%
Current Price:
2374.2
Entry Targets:
1) 2411.5
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 2010.3
Stop Targets:
1) 2612.6
Published By: @Zblaba
BINANCE:BTCDOMUSDT.P CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D #Bitcoin #Dominance #Index
Risk/Reward= 1:2.0
Expected Profit= +99.8%
Possible Loss= -50.0%
Btcd
Bitcoin Dominance UpdateBTC.D was rejected from the channel's trend line and consolidated above the 55% zone (blue). It then broke down and found support at the 54% zone (green).
If BTC.D falls below this 54% support, it could drop to the 53% zone (yellow), which would be positive for altcoins, as a lower BTC dominance usually benefits them.
However, if BTC.D bounced back from the 54% zone back to the 55% zone, it would be very bad for altcoins, as previously BTC.D bounced many times from this zone. Increase in dominance causing further declines in the altcoin market.
BTC.D - KEY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT ALT SEASON (MAY 2024)BTC.D - KEY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT ALT SEASON (MAY 2024)
When can we expect the next Alt season? It's been a long time since the last one. For a potential Alt season to occur, we need to break through the critical 54% level. If that doesn't happen, then the 58% level has the potential to trigger this scenario.
Golden Cross Re-test - Brief / Strong AltseasonAlternative idea for Bitcoin Dominance.
Small rising wedge breakdown on the weekly that began forming at the start of a Golden Cross of the weekly 20/100 and 50/200 MAs (and EMAs, not pictured)
Often after golden crosses, before the real bull run there is a strong re-test.
A re-test of the 100 and 200 weekly MA over the next month or so would target the exact same TP 2 as the rising wedge breakdown, around 49%.
49% also sits at the wick high of weekly support.
I see the possibility of a sharp drop down to ~49%, and if that level holds, a sharp rise up.
This could mean altseason is right around the corner, but could also mean it gets cut short around end of July or in the fall.
For a a different outlook considering a longer altseason and a sharper drop in dominance, see this other related idea:
For a short-term bearish then bullish outlook on Bitcoin Dominacne, see here:
Rising Wedge Breakdown Near Resistance3-daily chart for BTC.D
Targets:
Possible drop to support support initially.
Then TP 1 around 47
TP 2 ~43-44%.
Prereqs:
Remain below the wedge and lose 54% and then the 200 day EMA/MA just under it.
Some confluence:
My hand-drawn rising wedge on the log chart above has a measured TP 2 that lines up almost perfectly with the linear chart's "Rising Wedge" auto-pattern indicator.
Daily line chart view:
BTC DOMINANCE WEEKLY SHIFT.. a SIGN of upcoming Crypto PUMPS?!I've been tracking btcdominance' weekly data and it looks like a major shift is starting to transpire.
Shorters seems to have found their peaks -- and altcoin bulls may take over anytime now.
Double top has been created -- and a strong order block resistance is being met with rejection.
Expect reversal to the downside from here on for BTCDOM (expect altcoins/overall crypto market to dominate the upside region again)
spotted at 1594 (target: extended downtrend)
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On crypto market, a coin dominance is a ratio of its market cap to cumulative market cap of cryptocurrencies. It's a great way to see how big a coin is relative to the whole crypto market — the value of everything is in comparison. It's calculated by dividing a coin market cap by the overall market cap of the top 125 coins and then multiplying it by 100.
It's only when Bitcoin's dominance increases while Bitcoin's price is stable or when Bitcoin's dominance decreases, and its price also decreases that the prices of altcoins remain rather stable. When Bitcoin's dominance increases, altcoins usually lose market share and therefore value vis-à-vis Bitcoin.
When Will This Sideways Price Action From February End?Traders,
Since February, Bitcoin has basically been in a sideways accumulation price phase. I have a hunch we are very close to an end of this. But how much longer will traders be forced to be patient? And when this phase does end, will we move up or will we move down? Let's revisit the charts to see if you can find more clues.
Bitcoin Dominance Technical AnalysisCurrently, Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) retesting the channel trend line after a breakdown from it and bounced back from the support zone (Green) at 53.69% - 54.39%. BTC.D was moving in an ascending channel from august 2022 till May 2024.
Due to the upward movement of BTC.D after making support from green zone to ascending channel trend line the alt market is heavily bleeding. That is why we always say every time you take a trade use stop loss because this market is very volatile.
If Bitcoin Dominance rejects from the channel and breaks down from the green zone we will see massive gains in the price of alt’s market and if it do inverse and did not break the zone in green moves upwards and breaks into the channel that will be a bad dream for the alt’s.
According to our analysis, we could see BTC.D pull back from here and we will see it moving towards the next levels and massive pumps in alt coins price.
Overall, we understand that BTC.D is currently in a bullish momentum. It is retesting the channel trend line and has rebounded upward from the support zone, indicating a bullish sign. However, if it breaks down from the support zone, it could shift to a bearish momentum.
Bull Flag | Falling Wedge FormingMight be a drop here down towards the 200 day EMA/MA and the bottom of this bull flag or falling wedge on the daily.
This could provide some reliefs to #alts vs. BTC while Bitcoin corrects down to 60-63k area
Short-term short until 53-54% area, then long again, may range within the wedge for a while, too.
A disappointing #Altcoin season? Maybe! OTHERS.d/BTC.dMaking gains in #Crypto has gotten harder and harder with each passing cycle for the vast majority of participants.
That is an unquestionable truth that I see and hear from people.
#Bitcoin itself is in it's 4th Hype cycle... which is bearish
2013 Mt Gox ponzi cycle top/collapse
2017 Eth/ICO craze, CME futures. CNBC XRP shill top.
2021 Uniswap/DEFI innovation , Elon doge /Coinbase IPO top.
2024/5 Memecoins craze --- topping signals are already appearing Andrew Tate / Iggy Azalea at NYSE. A Trump Election Win could be the final nail in the coffin whilst ppl celebrate the news and January 2025 Inauguration may seal crypto's fate.
The left translated 4 year cycle is a definite possibility as made popular by #BobLoukas
We know that retail investors are rejecting High valued VC backed projects and rather take high risk gambles on #Memecoins for a chance to be early... this is not bullish behaviour obviously!
As only a tiny percentage of people can win at that game and often it is not YOU!
Once that speculative capital & energy is rinsed many people will be left holding a worthless bag of tokens.
#Leverage trading destroys many people's lives
And a digital store of value whilst has obviously it's merits is unlikely to flip #Gold in marketcap imho
It cannot compete with a 5000 year history of storing wealth for generation to generation.
I can bury Gold coins in my garden and dig them up in 50 years knowing full well that they will have value.
Would you do that with a trezor? Lol.
So what do we do ... try to take advantage of the next 6 months and rotate S coin profits into
#Stablecoins and maybe a small allocation to #PAXG #XAUT (buyer beware on those gold backed #RWA coins obviously)
This should buy you enough time, to let you assess the fallout of any top that may occur this Christmas/new year.
Remember many people and especially the Bitcoin community will be partying and celebrating the 15 year journey of a $100k plus BTC.
You must avoid being sucked into that hype and cash in a good chunk of your crypto portfolio IMO
This is just a scenario I give to you ... and not a prediction ofc.
We are trying to predict the future irrational behaviour of humans, an almost impossible task. But as the wall St cheat sheet demonstrates speculative bubbles, generally do repeat often enough for us to try and capture profits from them.
So we watch and wait, place our bets and see where the chips may fall, one foot in and one foot out is my general kind of viewpoint of how most people should be thinking at this stage of the cycle.
BITCOIN: Is a MASSIVE BULL RUN in the Making?
This chart tracks Bitcoin's market dominance, starting from 2018. I've spotted some similarities to the current market situation, hinting a potential massive bull run for BTCUSD.
Accumulation Phase (2018-2019): Investors were gradually accumulating Bitcoin, setting the stage for future gains.
Bullish Phase (2019-2021): Bitcoin's market dominance increased sharply, indicating strong investor confidence and interest.
Bearish Phase (2021-2023): Bitcoin's dominance declined as other cryptocurrencies gained market share, reflecting a broader interest in the crypto market.
Current Bullish Phase (2023-Present): Bitcoin dominance is rising again, suggesting renewed investor confidence and the potential for a massive bull run.
We are currently at 55.53% dominance, with projections showing the possibility of reaching new all-time highs above 70%.
What are your thoughts on this? Feel free to comment and boost this idea if you agree.
Cheers,
Ares
Beginning of Alt-Season?As you can see BTC.D making huge divergence, and Bitcoin's volume going down bit by bit. Doesn't mean that Bitcoin gonna go down right away, maybe it is time to BTC to cool down a bit. 47% is reasonable target, but could go down till 43%. Longer it goes down better for Altcoin and Alt-season.
Will do update on some of the altcoin.
ALT season incomingBTC Dominance has been rising since the end of 2022.
That's about 1.5 year.
We can find a similar pattern from Jan 2018 - Sep 2019 (little over 1.5 year), BTC dominance had dropped from Sep 2019 - May 2021 (about 1.5 year)
I drew the expected BTC dominance for next 1 year (white line)
Let's see the result after a year.
Pattern failure on ETHBTC!!! ***WARNING***Are we going to get a halvening before the Halvening.
Ethereum priced in Bitcoin is giving us the headsup that things are not right in #crypto world
After being so strong for so long
we have broken down through our stop loss for a Bullish #HVF
and now appear to be spilling towards legacy ratio's
if #Ethereum does go on a tumble
expect your #altcoins to lose twice as much value
WHEN to BUY CRONOS - Using BTC.D 🔁BITTREX:CROUSDT
As seen from the CROUSDT chart, the Bitcoin Dominance Chart reveals many secrets when overlayed onto your altcoin chart.
They key reason for this being the constant rotation of money in and out of Bitcoin, and into and out of altcoins. If you're looking for a more detailed explanation on when to buy altcoins, check out yesterday's update here:
From the chart we can clearly see that Cronos has bottomed out, but is struggling to regain bullish momentum. As we overlay the BTC.D chart (yellow) we can see there is a negative correlation between the two - When BTC.D drops, CRO increases. And when BTC.D increases, CRO drops. This will hold true not only for CRO , but for other smaller market cap altcoins as well.
This concludes that NOW is an excellent zone to buy Cronos, as the price is yet again in accumulation zone. An increase can be expected as soon as we see a dip in Bitcoin Dominance.
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CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) Approaching 2024 Altcoin SeasonLooking at the 1W time frame of the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart, it looks like it's time for the market to transition from being primarily Bitcoin-dominated to altcoin-dominated.
We've seen the writing on the wall with Bitcoin making headline after headline regarding United States Spot ETFs or the halving event. Now that the majority of investors are sucked into Bitcoin, timeline shifts into altcoins. We can see that through the news now with the attention picking up on Ethereum (not discrediting Solana growth by any means, it's still small enough in market cap where it doesn't marginally change the TOTAL2 cap or this chart). Ethereum has the impending United States Spot ETFs approval as well as regulatory clarity coming around Uniswap, and from that I'd assume we'd get some sort or clarity regarding memecoins as well, sending that respective market flying with a green light for institutional investors to invest.
Bitcoin is trying to grab attention or hold it's relativity now with Ordinals and L2s, and that's great! Let's say though you buy PUPS, that's considered part of TOTAL2 or bringing down the capitalization of Bitcoin relative to the rest of the crypto market. I'm expecting this trend to continue where Bitcoin holders are using their coins on-chain for these activities, ultimately dragging the BTC.D cap down with it.
This time around, I don't see the possibility of Bitcoin reaching the previous 72.04% level due to the sheer amount of tokens and liquidity flying around these smid caps. Each Bitcoin Dominance cycle or Bitcoin cycle for that matter, the altcoin seasons get less and less intense due to the amount of relativity they have compared to Bitcoin at all seasons instead of just during altcoin season. Around this 55% range is mid-range of this free-fall seen in 2021, and where orders are resting. We could see Bitcoin Dominance either range in this area or start free-falling, either way I don't see a market where we re-claim that 72.04% or push much higher for that matter.
Also, hearing a lot of talk about this cycle being over, cannot tell if they're joking or not, but we haven't seen that altcoin season euphoria yet. That is yet to come.
An interesting observation here we can see the 2021 altcoin season took 1085 days to build up from the bottom to the top of Bitcoin dominance, and this 2024 season is right on par with that 1085 days before the cycle ultimately starts. This Bitcoin cycle is a little bit different, so we'll see how this chart plays out this time around, but I remember last cycle, 2021, I called the 72.04% Bitcoin Dominance wick to the Tee. Could be longer, who knows, but so far this chart is playing out and figured I'd give an update.
The 2021 altcoins season lasted almost that full year of 2021, but as we can see on the chart, the major move happened between January - May 2021, those 5 months. If history were to repeat itself, we should see this cycle's main move play out in 5 months too.
BTC Dominance BTC Dominance is breaking a trendline on Daily Time Fame and on support at 54.16% if the breakdown down is confirmed then we might see BTC.D continuously retrace towards the lower zones this is a good sign for alts and is possibly the start of the biggest bull run ever. Be patient and get ready to witness the massive run. Save your portfolio from futures trading and fill your spot bags while the market is retracing by doing DCA (dollar-cost averaging ) at important levels.
BTC DOMINANCE / BTC.DGood Luck >>
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The risk management of the position must comply with the stop loss.
(I am not sharing financial or investment advice, you should do your own research for your money.)