POO Coins are up 1.5X vs #BTC since June. HOW HIGH CAN THEY GO?This chart is of the market cap of #Altcoins divided by the marketcap of #Bitcoin.
If this ratio is going UP
Sh@tcoins (to give them their colloqiual name)
are out performing the #1 #Crypto asset.
("there is NO 2nd best.. " M. Saylor)
Risk ON.
Aka Silly season.
If this ratio is going down.
Then S coins are underperforming BTC
Bear market... S coins getting wiped out.
.... Got it?
Good.
Throwing on a Fib extension
(please draw your own chart... I am not a Fibonnaci expert by any means)
We can speculate how high,
and how much they will outperform.
and the magnitude of gains left on the table
Take Your pick of the extension level.
Or retracement Level if you are a Bitcoin Maxi, and don't believe a new ATH will be made in this ratio...
Good Luck in your speculations.
Btcdominance
Dominance the system core- for me it has always been very complicate to explain BTC.D to peoples, because it's complicate ! lol
- it's weird to understand the moves and many factors have to be compared together an alchemy have to happen to see something happening.
- So basically to explain it, i will tell you what "we want to see" or "what we don't want to see" in the future. if the story repeats again.
1/ BTC.D have to grow up, then Altcoins will struggle down trying to find a potential bottom.
- While BTC.D grow up, BTC price have to grow up also or at least stabilize ( this is a good sign )
2 / if BTC price down and BTC.D up, it's bad, it's just the normal way ( No Divergence )
- When BTC price + BTC.D both up together, it's a kind of " inversed divergence ", it means something good gonna happens. ( get it ?)
- Basically also if USDT/USDC Dom Grow and BTC price stabilize and not goes down anymore, it's a good sign.
- Normality the normal way is : BTC up / USDT/USDC.D Down OR BTC Down / USDT/USDC.D up.
- Before we had no reason to check those Stables coins because they had not much DOM in markets, but now have to count with them.
- So While BTC.D is growing, altcoins will just make some weak moves.
- When BTC will reach is next Dominance's ATH ( witch have to be lower than last years because more concurrence )
- BTC.D will crash and ALT SEASON will start.
- it took me many years to understand that, but it's pure logic ( Fibonacci is working perfectly on it )
- again it's not easy to get it.
- if you have any questions feel free to add a comment.
Happy Tr4Ding !
🔥 Bitcoin Dominance Break Out! Watch Your Alts 🚨As of this week, the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) has broken out of a 6-month consolidation period. This means that money is flowing out of altcoins into Bitcoin again.
It's difficult to predict how high BTC.D will go, but I think we can make a an educated guess by looking at the diagonal purple resistance.
Historically, bull-markets (especially for alts) started at the red arrows. Remains to be seen if it will happen again.
For now, alts are likely going to lose value against Bitcoin, especially during dumps like yesterday. Start looking to buy alts again after BTC.D hits the top resistance.
Bitcoin Dominance Update (3D)By clicking on the previous analysis, you can see the serial analysis of Bitcoin Dominance.
It seems to be inside a large diameter. It is now inside the big D wave of this diametric.
We consider two supplies to complete the D wave. In fact, from one of these two supplies, it can be rejected downwards for 40 weeks.
We have such a view on the dominance of Bitcoin.
ALTSEASON 2024/2025 overrated?With each bull market, the profitability of alts decreases compared to BTC:
2017 - 63%,
2021 - 47%,
2025 - 24% ?
Please note that the BTC bull markets so far have not included ETFs. This Black Swan can cause up to 4 times greater growth dynamics for BTC (similar to Gold in 2004).
🔥Understanding Altseason: Timing and Duration🚀✍️Altseason refers to a period in the cryptocurrency market when alternative coins (altcoins) significantly outperform Bitcoin.
This phenomenon typically follows Bitcoin’s halving events, as capital begins to flow from Bitcoin into altcoins.
The most notable Altseasons occur when ALT/BTC pairs gain strong market traction.
✍️The duration and intensity of Altcoin bull runs can vary, often featuring multiple Altseasons within a single crypto bull cycle.
The most prominent Altseason generally occurs after the peak of Bitcoin’s bull run, coinciding with a surge in market participation. This phase often sees exponential growth across the board, affecting cryptocurrencies regardless of their market cap.
✍️Analyzing the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart reveals potential resistance levels between 57.23% and 58.2%. A rejection at these levels could be the catalyst for a widespread rally in the altcoin market.
Historical Perspective on Altseason:
- 2016 Altseason: Lasted approximately 546 days.
- 2020 Altseason: Spanned nearly a year, marking a 33% reduction in duration compared to 2016.
- Projected 2024 Altseason: Expected to last about 273 days, beginning between the last week of May and the first week of June 2024.
Conclusion:
The current trends in BTC Dominance, alongside historical data, suggest that the next Altseason could begin within the next 6 to 7 weeks.
Any market corrections during this period could offer strategic buying opportunities.
Note: Always conduct your own research (DYOR). The above analysis is not intended as financial advice.
Please hit the like button and share if you find this helpful.
I suggest bookmarking this chart for future reference.
#Altseason #BTCHalving
BTC.D has NEVER Broken Above This Line! Ever.Traders,
I know there's a first for everything but, as traders, we usually do our best work NOT guessing when that first will be. In this case, I have traced that descending purple TL back to sometime around November of 2016, which is nearly to the inception of dominance on this particular chart. In it's history, BTC.D has NEVER broken above our trend line with confirmation on the daily. You can observe a few wick ups but no body closes, let alone confirmation. Until we get a close above that TL with confirmation, I believe it's safe to conclude that we may see Bitcoin struggle a bit here vs. the Alts. Bitcoin needs to close above this trend line or larger cap alts, like Ethereum, will continue to outperform.
Stew
The King iz dead - long live the King!Hi mates! Im fine, thanks :)
The spirits of the forests and the imperial stormtroopers clashed in a fierce battle and the light of their suffering and rage illuminated the direction where the Great Ancient was stealthy heading. I saw it and sketched it here to bring you the truth! BEHOOOOLD!
Thy worshiperz of the Elderness will consider this heresy, but it is not!! - accept the true world without fear, but with understanding. And if this happens, press the rocket button ;)
BTC DOMINANCE UPDATEBTC DOMINANCE UPDATE
The relationship between BTC dominance & Altcoins growth is Inverse relationship
Good time to accumulate altcoins when dominance of BTC is about to drop/ breakdown
Here in chart we can see 2 potential scenarios :
Scenario 1: start to drop near current level
Scenario 2: sharp rise to 59% - 62% before dropping ..
The real altseason will start when we drop
So Keep an eye on this chart …
Alt Season Around the Corner (Scenarios)Bitcoin Dominance may be topping out here - a possible triple-top.
Meanwhile many alts are bottoming vs. Bitcoin.
A couple of examples shown here in contrast with CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D are BINANCE:ETHBTC and BINANCE:HBARBTC which may also be forming triple bottoms.
This could occur as soon as next week.
Other possible scenarios could be:
Scenario 1: Mini-Alt-Season First: Then Bitcoin Dominates again -> Actual Alt Season:
For this scenario, we'd likely see something like an initial breakdown of Bitcoin Dominance and breakout of Alts vs. their Bitcoin pairings, followed by a pullback on both as Bitcoin rises higher and alts lose vs. BTC again, hitting higher lows near bottom prior to the real breakout.
Scenario 2- Breaks and Pullbacks Now: Dominance Breaks above 54.09% now -> Alts Lose their Bottoms Briefly -> Alt Season
In this example, there's a breakout above recent Bitcoin Dominance highs (weekly close(s) above 54.09%), and alts breakdown losing their current bottoms vs Bitcoin (weekly close(s) below their weekly lows). Then a pullback below 54.09% and above alt's recent lows leading into an extended alt season.
Scenario 3 - Idea is Invalidated - Dominance either heads up strong and Bitcoin eats alts or it falls as Bitcoin drops hard as Dominance does and the entire market moves down
This final scenario is the invalidation of this idea. Bitcoin either rises hard along with dominance and destroys alt/btc pairings, or dominance and Bitcoin drop together as the entire market weakens - and if this occurs, I'd expect the signal for it would be as TVC:DXY strengthens heading above 106-108 and then 112-115 (see my other published posts about the Dollar Index and how it relates to crypto and stocks on the macro).
Hope this helps someone, cheers and good luck!
- dudebruhwhoa
Maybe 13k & we start see upside to 80kHey traders & investors
we all know that we are in recession and Bitcoin flowing the stock market not like before. so my prediction for next year is clear and i hope im right .
i will be happy to discuss this idea with you just leave a comment with your opinion .
Thank you
Remember this is not a financel advice .
Bitcoin dominanceBitcoin dominance is currently forming a symmetrical triangle pattern. If it breaks out of this pattern upwards, it could climb back to the 55% zone. This might lead to a decrease in the value of alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins). However, if Bitcoin's dominance breaks down and falls below the support level of 53%, it could drop to 52% or even 50%. This could be beneficial for altcoins, which might start performing well if Bitcoin remains stable during this time. Manage your risk and trade accordingly. Be patient and wait for the right time to print money.
Need to check in which direction it deviates based on 66.4K-69KHello traders!
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-------------------------------------
(BTCUSDT 1M chart)
Since the 67K-69K section is located as shown in the picture, I believe it corresponds to the psychological resistance section.
Therefore, if support is reached around 67K-69K, it is expected to lead to a further rise.
If not, and it falls, you should check for support around 56K-61K.
The HA RSI indicator is an indicator created based on the closing price of Heikin Ashi.
Therefore, when the price falls, the HA RSI indicator may fall from the overbought range and a new HA-HIgh indicator may be created.
If a new HA-High indicator is created, the important thing is whether it can be supported around it.
(1W chart)
The key is whether the price can be maintained by rising above 69K.
If that happens, it is expected to rise to the next target of 1.618 (88913.24).
(1D chart)
In order to continue the upward trend, it must eventually rise above 70231.38.
Accordingly, the key is whether it can receive support and rise around 69K-70.2K.
Because the MS-Signal indicator was touching and rising, the area around 66.4K was the first buying period.
The second buying time is when it shows support around 70.2K, as mentioned above.
It was expected that we would be able to find out what direction the trend would take from March 16th to 18th.
Accordingly, you need to check in which direction it deviates based on the 66.4K-69K section.
The next period of volatility is around March 31st.
Therefore, it is expected that the trend created will accelerate or a major reversal will occur around March 17th.
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I think it is risky to forecast the coin market trend only through BTC charts.
Therefore, I think we should also know the movement of coin market funds.
As an individual trader, it is quite difficult to know the financial situation of the coin market.
I think you can refer to the USDT and USDC charts to understand the trend of funds, even if it is limited.
(USDT chart)
(USDC chart)
Funds flow into or out of the coin market through USDT or USDC.
This is because in order to trade in the coin market, you need funds to form a trading pair.
I think most trading is taking place in the USDT market.
Therefore, it can be said that USDT's movement has a great influence on the coin market.
If you interpret the USDT chart or USDC chart considering this situation,
- The occurrence of a gap can be seen as the basis for funds flowing into or out of the coin market.
- Candlesticks on the USDT chart or USDC chart can be seen as expressing increases and decreases due to trading.
Therefore, if USDT does not show a downward trend in the gap, it is highly likely that the coin market will maintain an upward trend due to the funds flowing into the coin market.
(USDT.D chart)
In that sense, I think the movement of USDT dominance is a chart that shows the funding trend in the actual coin market.
As long as USDT dominance does not rise above 4.97, I think the coin market is likely to remain bullish.
Therefore, if USDT dominance rises above 4.97 and USDT begins to show a downward trend, I think it is highly likely that the coin market is in a downward trend.
If you think you have found such an important point or section, you need a trading strategy that matches the current trend until you break away from that point or section.
(BTC.D chart)
I think this bull market is centered around BTC or ETH.
Accordingly, I believe that most altcoins are not showing a significant increase.
Although, I believe that BTC dominance is currently maintained at the current level due to the rise of several coins (tokens).
If BTC dominance does not fall below 50, there is a high possibility that there will be a large decline due to the decline of BTC, so caution is required when trading.
-----------------------------------
In summary, the decline in BTC provides a buying opportunity until USDT switches to a gap decline.
Have a good time.
thank you
--------------------------------------------------
- The big picture
The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.
Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting area, you should check the movement when this area is touched.
If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
-----------------
Bitcoin Dominance and its Future as a gauge
The Bitcoin Dominance has been a near Vital part of the Crypto trading Experience for many people, essentially showing us the ebb and Flow of the primary Crypto money flow.
As we can see, from around 2016, things changed as ALTS came in and began competing for the available money in a bigger way than previously..
The BTC.D dropped sharply around 200 days after that halving in 2016 and. to date, was the largest Fall ever, due to the transfer of money from BTC into the ALTs world.
BTC.D began rising after the 2017 BTC ATH and, on average, Rose till the next halving date.
But this tine, after halving, It dropped from around 80% to 60% and then rose again till Dec 2020.
From there, it drooped sharply, ALT season began , BTC ATH was achieved again, twice, while BTC.D Dropped.
From the First ATH, March 2021, PA Ranged effectively until late 2022, when it began rising to the levels we see today, which are Noticeably lower that previous occasions, due mostly to the ALT coins.
What needs to be noted here is the simple fact that BTC. Dominance DROPS as we approach Bitcoin All Time Highs. This creates DIVERGENCE in effect. This has happened Twice.
The BIG question is really, Will it happen again ?
This time round, it is the ETF world that will effect the BTC.D and it will Keep BTC.D at a level outside of the retail market. Probably leading to a smaller Drop after the period after Halving.
And what will this do to the ALT SEASON >
Bitcoin ETF do not guarantee that money will remain in Bitcoin...we have recently seen the first RED fday of money inflows ( meaning they were out Flows) from the ETF.
The things I am looking forward to seeing are this
1) Will BTC.D PA Drop as we approach BTC ATH ? It would make little sense for the ETF market to sell off its BTC while the price Range RISES....so will we see that Divergence once again and if so, what will drive it ?
2) will shortage of supply lead to a sustained Price increase....thus creating a Higher Bitcoin Dominance ?
3) What will trigger ALT Season if money stays locked in Bitcoin, Keeping ~BTC.D high ? Retail is finding it a lot harder to enter Crypto ......
4) WILL The ALT season that surely must arrive, will be epic as the ETF crowd sell up after the ATH towards the end of 2025 ( My view and not advice )- BUT - this will only happen if other Crypto ETF are allowed......OR WILL IT
Only Time Will tell....The number of possibilities are endless.
I cannot wait to see what happens after this halving.........
be ready..be Cautious and be safe
Complete analysis of Bitcoin (time and price analysis)Hello dear friends
I hope you have used Bitcoin and Tether Dominance analysis (I informed the exact date of the previous 2 corrections)
We are at a stage of the market where it is very difficult to overcome greed, be sure that if the market was going to make more profit than this, I would have opened a long leverage position of 3 or 5 right now, but it is not the case.
Some friends say that Tether has minted 9 billion dollars during this period, this is a bullish sign, well, in the history of crypto, Tether has minted almost another 90 billion dollars, but it has never been able to break its long-term support line (Tether Dominance Analysis).
So from the psychological point of view, it has a strong impact on the price.
2 simple technical tips to prove the weakening of the Bitcoin trend:
1- After breaking the resistance of 53,000 to 54,000, in the 4-hour or daily time frame, the price moved without a pullback, and as you can see, a FOMO wave was formed.
2- This Fomo wave has formed 3 FVG (price gap) in a row, which technically closes sooner or later when the price reaches this area.
Taking into account Bitcoin charts, Bitcoin Dominance, Tether, and proximity to halving, the probability of price correction is higher than increase, so I open a short position with leverage of 3-5% and place stop loss 2-3% higher than time limit, in order to manage capital and risk. I will place it from the historical ceiling (target range of 53-54 thousand)
Friends, pay attention, maybe a pattern will form in the lower time frame (1 hour or 30 minutes) and its ceiling will break, but this movement is nothing but a bullish trap.
Time analysis: I think the time range from March 11th to 25th, is the golden 14 days of the market to enter the corrective phase, note that the market maker is in control of the media and will do anything to make people excited.
I suggest you read the previous 2 analyzes.
I would be happy if you share your opinion with me.
Give me energy by liking and following me.
The next alt season.The relative strength oscillator begins to lean towards the alts, after an initial important upward movement in BTC, the alts seem to want to follow the trend. I can deduce this from the fact that for the first time in the last two years, the oscillator has been downwards for longer than upwards, furthermore it has pierced the previous low, therefore added to the alts charts which are mostly set upwards, we can hope that this is the beginning of the new alts season. I don't expect the crazy percentages of previous years, but I can't rule it out for sure. The only thing I can do is expose myself more towards the alts hoping to have hit a good moment to establish that we are in the alts season. I put some signals in the history to see what happened in the past, it is clear that once the zero line was broken, then a period almost a year and a half long began where the alternative currencies to bitcoin had better performances than to the queen of cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin Dominance UpdateAnticipating a pullback to around the 52% zone. If Bitcoin stabilizes or becomes less volatile, some altcoins could see gains. However, if Bitcoin Deomonence tests the resistance area of 55% again, we may continue to see slow movement in altcoins or a downturn in the overall market. We'll share potential trading opportunities once we find them. Be patient and wait for the right timing to capitalize on opportunities with The Crypto City.
Movement needs to be confirmed by around March 17thHello traders!
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-------------------------------------
The overall picture is as follows.
(BTCUSD 1M chart)
Looking at the TradingView INDEX chart, it appears that the new high (ATH) has been updated.
To date, the StochRSI indicator on the 1M chart has been maintained at the highest point of the overbought zone for up to 2 months.
Accordingly, the key question is whether the StochRSI indicator can maintain its peak in April.
If not, I'll have to prepare for a decline.
(BTCUSDT 1M chart)
If the decline begins, the key is whether support can be found around 59053.55 (56090.42-61202.17).
If it falls below this range, it is expected to fall to around 42K-47K (44200-47600).
If there is support near 69000, the next target is expected to be around 1.618 (88913.24).
---------------------------
The reason why there are expectations that BTC will rise again even if it falls is because USDT and USDC continue to maintain a rising gap.
This is because we believe that the fact that USDT or USDC shows a rising gap is evidence that funds are flowing into the coin market.
I believe that the increase in USDT or USDC through transactions is expressed through candles.
(USDT chart)
(USDC chart)
Therefore, I think that for the coin market to show a downward trend, USDT must show a gap decline.
Therefore, I believe that the decline of BTC in these fund flows will actually increase buying power.
(BTC.D 1M chart)
In order for the altcoin trend to begin, I believe BTC dominance must fall below 50 and remain there.
However, if possible, I think BTC dominance should rise in the 55.01-62.47 range or higher and then decline.
Otherwise, if BTC shows signs of falling at a critical point, the fall in altcoins is expected to be large.
Accordingly, when trading altcoins, it is necessary to recover the purchase price as quickly as possible from a day trading perspective.
(USDT.D 1M chart)
As USDT dominance falls below 4.97, the coin market is expected to enter a bull market.
Accordingly, if USDT Dominus rises above 4.97, the coin market is expected to see a significant decline.
In order for this downtrend to become a full-fledged downtrend, USDT must show a gap decline.
-------------------------------------------------- -------
(BTCUSDT 1W chart)
As BTC renews its new all-time high (ATH), I think the likelihood of increased selling is increasing.
Accordingly, it is important to determine where the key support and resistance points are within the current price position.
Currently, the 66401.82-69000 area is considered to be an important support and resistance area.
To confirm this, you can check the movement of altcoins when BTC falls to the 66401.82-69000 range.
The StochRSI indicator is expected to touch the top of the overbought zone.
Accordingly, the 66401.82-69000 section is expected to be an important section.
(1D chart)
If the new high (ATH) is renewed and the upward trend is maintained, there is no way to know what will happen in the future.
Accordingly, a predictable picture is drawn using the chart tool.
A representative charting tool is the Fibonacci ratio.
The 1.27 (73308.95) and 1.414 (79765.89) points indicated by the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool are likely to serve as resistance zones.
However, since the ratio that has an important meaning in the Fibonacci ratio is 0.618, it is believed that if the price surges, it is highly likely to touch around 1.618 (88913.24).
To maintain this upward trend, we need to see if we can find support near the previous high point of 69000 and rise further.
This volatility period lasts until March 11th.
Therefore, the key is whether the price can be maintained above 66401.82.
The next period of volatility is around March 31st.
However, it is necessary to check the movement around March 17 (March 16-18).
This is because there is a possibility that a trend will slowly form around March 17th (March 16th-18th).
As of now, the short-term downtrend turning point is 1 (61202.17).
Accordingly, it is important whether there is support or resistance around 56150.01-61202.17.
----------------------------------------
The gist of the above is
- If USDT maintains its gap upward trend, it is expected to eventually maintain its upward trend even if BTC falls.
- In order to see a major uptrend in altcoins, BTC dominance must fall below 50.
However, it is thought that it is highly likely that the altcoin bull market will be maintained only if BTC dominance rises in the 55.01-65.47 range or higher and then falls.
If not, you need to be careful when trading as altcoins are likely to see a large decline when BTC appears to be falling at a critical point.
- If BTC falls below 61202.17, it is highly likely to turn into a short-term downtrend.
Accordingly, it is important whether support or resistance is received around 56150.01-61202.17.
Have a good time.
thank you
--------------------------------------------------
- The big picture
The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.
Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting area, you should check the movement when this area is touched.
If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
-----------------
Bitcoin dominance is Dooooomed down to 17% in the next 3 month wild things will happen, my wild guess either ethereum or XRP will over take bitcoin market cap for a short period of time which will bring down bitcoin dominance to 17%
keep in mind i still think bitcoin will be the top number one in the long term, but in the short term (1-3 months ) brace for surprises
not investment advise
Cryptolean Bitcoin Dominance BTC.D Update In the weekly chart, Bitcoin Dominance is in the bullish territory, as long as weekly candles close above 53.27%.
Below 53.27%, the key weekly support, Bitcoin will share the dominance with Altcoins and BTC.D will decline towards 51.37%.
A bearish break-out of 51.37% and #Bitcoin Dominance keeping below this level will push BTC.D to 49% resulting in Altseason.
Above 53.27%, the probability to move to 55.5% remains high and this move will put pressure on Satoshi price of Altcoins.
Daily Chart
After finding a support at 50-Day Moving Average and 53% level, the BTC.D daily chart is lingering around 53.5%.
A bearish rejection of 53.5% will result in #BitcoinDominance moving to 52.24%, the key daily support.
A bullish break-out of 53.5% will place Bitcoin Dominance into the slow momentum area and will increase a likelihood of re-test of 54.5%.
Like once read.
Thank you!