Bitstamp–BTC-e Spread Exhibits Deep StructureThere is a recurrent and long-standing pattern within the spread between these two exchanges. A few months before every "bubble" begins, the spread funnels itself into a tidy channel, which it essentially remains in until the price peaks, though displays no other internal order. There are also clearly other structural self-similarities. As you look back in time you see that the signal become noisier but, moving forward, these characteristics are emerging and becoming amplified with each new pass/cycle. —On another note, you can also see the effects from the "Mt. Gox" section were essentially like having a mini bubble and subsequent crash, inside the crash from the main bubble.— Deep market mechanisms must account for this behavior, and there will likely be much to infer from it. Obviously, for the current cycle, there is no way for me to draw the "correct" channel without knowing the future, so the existing one is merely illustrative.
Btce-e
Long term RSIIf the past RSI trend is of any indication of future movement, we should see Bitcoins moving up over the next few weeks.
It'll be a make or break over the next few days. Either we go back to $550 and bounce back strongly or we'll break above the RSI downtrend since 20th May 2014 and head towards $640 - $680.
Bulls need to march towards $600 level ASAP! Given the momentum right now, there's a high possibility that we may be able to move up.
Short till 550-560Short till 550-560, then expecting a bounce to complete the large triangle before the nect major rally (wave 5) see here...
4 hr BoT in an 8 hr BoT oh my - BTCe long setup locked & loadedHello all,
regular readers will not be too surprised with today's offering. I have been watching this potential 4 hour bullish BoT setup (BoT = my way of playing ab=cd harmonic price patterns....to learn more please refer to this guide: docs.google.com) for a few sessions now. I thought I would take some time today to comment on that setup and how it currently looks.
Considering the rather well defined double bottom in price (seen on the left hand side of the chart) long ideas are not too hard of a pill to swallow. That double bottom confirmed a massive 8 hour bullish BoT formation (thick Fib study levels on chart) where both of those camps are currently long against the $615 area with stops just below key lows near $545. Considering too our belief in Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) windows, anticipation of a rally into the Daily short window ($700 to $900 area) isn't that bad of an idea either. The question then becomes, how does one actually trade this for profit where risk on all trades taken is less then potential reward. The BoT is my way of addressing this concern and has helped me immensely with both trade execution and management. Help with both of those has reduced personal trade anxiety which leads to better decision making and a generally happier life...which is always a good thing. As traders, we are literally paid to be uncomfortable. The less uncomfortable-ness I have in my job the better...
Here then is how I shall be trying to play my anticipation of a move in price up into the higher time frame Optimal Trade Entry (short) window. While higher time frame players are currently long off the $615 level (as noted above) Lower time frame players will get confirmation of their 4 hour BoT long entry on a move through $628.76. Considering the significant peak in price at $629.60 I would consider a breach of this level a significant event anyway. Should that event occur, I shall be a buyer. I really like the fact that the bottom will have three key lows to work with. Stops should initially be on a breach of the recent key low at $603.70. Stops should be moved to break even on a touch of $653.81 and our ultimate target on the setup is $703.91.
That's all for this post. Trade well and god bless,
Brian
p.s. be sure to watch my free 5-10m Daily BTCe summaries on YouTube:
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June is the Bullish Pennant This month looks like it COULD possibly form a Bullish Pennant along the downward trend line that is most notably found on BTCE.
I've been making my attempts at day trading but have failed a few trades, so I've decided to take a step back to my long term strategies and continue there where my skill set is better suited.
If you're new to trading feel free to do some reading:
www.trending123.com
This could go on into July, however I'd like to believe that we should finally break this downward trend line on news by the end of the month.
StochRSI is low and signaling buyers. However, it has done this during the downtrend before and been really deceiving. I don't trust it anymore.
MACD is in the green and crossed over awhile back (uptrend)
RSI is at 53.92 so we could go either way which leads me to believe more consolidation.
RVI is 63.31. which is about right considering the "volatile" consolidation.
Stochastic is bottoming here which is a good sign signaling that we're going to see some buying to push us out of the triangle.
Our 15EMA is closing in on the 50MA which previously during the downtrend performed well with my shorts in signaling when to sell. In this case we're in the opposite scenario where it should be signaling us to buy as the EMA closes in on the MA.
The safest trade is to wait for a breakout above the downward trend line and go long, however if you're into trading smaller time-frames attempting the pennant's price movements may be for you.
GLTA.
short team reversal confirmation: bullishWith today's announcement of DigitalBTC's listing on Australia Stock Exchange, the price is heading north once again. We've finally broken through the falling wedge since 12th June. (RSI, VI, MCAD, Elliot Wave 4, indicators are seemly positive and oversold)
www.coindesk.com
For short term, we should see price heading closer towards $600 once again. One thing for sure, the bulls have defended the $540 support strongly and it'll serve as a good line of support.
However be cautious against further decline with the sale of 26k Bitcoins by the FBI as the bears will definitely recycles that piece of news days thereafter. Given the fact that the actual date of sale will be on 26-27th June.
I am putting the bet on the fact that we'll head to $540 before the next rally. Be safe, no one can ever accurately predict the future movement other than short term where the market is heading.
In the meantime, always trade with stop-loss and take profit :)
Triple top on BTCe and head & shoulders on Bitstamp/huobi/btcchiPreviously I have covered on the triple top on the 30 minute trend which suggest a further decline down to $620.
Now that the decline have been completed, coupled with a rally yesterday. A closer look into a 2 hour trend does suggest another triple top on BTCe, whereas head + shoulders on Huobi/BTCChina/Bitstamp.
Both formation will most likely lead to another further decline in price down to the 560s.
Head+Shoulders:
BTCUSD - BITCOIN - Could it confound the BULLS?There is lot of excitement as traders compare previous "Bubble" and subsequent price bottoming from which the price plotted bullish path and its apparent resemblance to the recent low at 340. This has given many Bullish traders to start talking about new bullish trend and price projection north of $2000 by August 2014 and yet other $5,000 by Dec 2014 etc
Could, the price continue to meet the bullish expectation or is it going to confound the bulls? What does the correct application of Technical Analysis and Elliot Wave Principle suggest for the Bitcoin's intermediate term price action?
Whilst, my anticipated resistance at 570 zone in my last chart was short lived and now we have 680 at the doorstep. This has acted as a resistance now for few days. It is possible that it might hold, or more likely we have potential small triangle in formation which could be very short term bullish and could achieve 700-720 or on a particularly strong breakout could even reach the proximity of 800.
So in the very short term potential bullish. However on an intermediate term it is in bearish cycle and the current bounce could be viewed as a bear market rally. So my dreaded "RED ARROW" to 300 zone still remains.
Many have taken issues with me for being persistently bearish and not appreciating all the positive fundamentals filtering out recently. Many ask me at what time will I change my mind? Why should I expect 300 retest for the final low?
It would seem that my attempts in explaining these in the Chat has been unsuccessful and perhaps confusing in usage of various terminologies of Bull and Bear cycle or moves.
Well, whilst I do not expect you to accept my analysis without questioning, at least fully understanding my reasoning and apparently taking a solitary stand on the matter could assist you to considering possibilities and then dismissing it if it is flawed and you have a better handle.
Here is the Youtube Link www.youtube.com
BTCE (Bitcoin) 05/06/2014 tosbaa.. 14 days target 494just look at the chart and dont forget to like it :)
The delayed litecoin rallyAs usual, each time we get a Bitcoin rally Litecoin lacks far behind until at some point in time before Litecoin swiftly catches up.
With the current price of $639 USD / BTC, we should be expecting at least $25 for LTC.
hold on tight for nowWe might either see a correction to $560 once it hits 600~630 level or a further consolidation for the next pump...
Black bar in the MCAD represents the range between the high and low value. It'll signal a reversal in trend as it heads towards 0 from either positive or negative.
Dawn of the Bull. For many moons we have seen the big bad bear dump down on us from above, forming a beautiful wedge we all have watched in anticipation of a breakout to confirm trend reversal.
The Gox saga has been talked to death over the past few months along with almost weekly china bans and BTC's being stolen from various exchanges. Recently I feel though this negative news has reversed and we have started to hear great things about Bitcoin from the Winklevoss twins. Richard Branson has decided to invest in Bitcoins flagbearer 'Bitpay' and it looks like Bitcoin ATM's are starting popup in Africa. This has all been going on for quite some time but has been massively overshadowed by the Mt Gox aftermath. Now I feel though we are moving on to the next stage of things to come and new investment.
Today we have broken the wedge. The previous two legs down had similar pumpndump patterns that I don't see here and therefore I am beginning to feel more bullish. The Branson effect will bring encourage faith from sheep investors and other influential players are helping stoke the fire.
Although I feel it may be a bit of a premature long call, I'm willing to put my balls on the line now because even if we see more down in the extremely short term, the up is very very close.
The last leg that never happened..As we approach the end of this long term bear wedge, what was previously predicted as another leg down has turned out to be sideways motion which is now hugging the resistance line,
For me this confirms a break in pattern of the previous 2/3 legs down. The news on the Gox saga and china bans seems to be drying up and positive news taking its place.
As we approach the critical point in this long term wedge I would be tempted to go long now although wouldn't be suprised by a flash crash to 380 beforehand.
If history dictates, This is a sell #bitcoinI meant to post this the other day but never got round but expected sideways motion to last until the weekend.
If we look at the past two pumps they all follow similar 'paths. When you map arcs onto these it forms a kind of "Speed bump" (sorry couldn't think of a better name!)
The initial pump followed by a dump which has created a support level then a sideways motion above the pumps support line. The next similarity is that when there is a dump past the initial support line this triggers a dump down to the next leg.
I will be going short with a belief we will see support at $400 and may reach $350. I would be going long at $350 if we make it that low.
Long term analogy of the Bitcoin price and it's direction ..I similar to many people, feel we are close to a pinch point where the true value of bitcoin is shown to be going up or down.
This is my analysis of how we have got to today and where we're headed.. Short term down another leg but long term up.
Litecoin Head & Shoulders Bottom Forming.I discovered these 'Head & Shoulders Bottom' patterns while trying to find some direction for the LTC/BTC Trade. The trouble with looking for these patterns from a fiat perspective is fiat's action in the market is a lot like the tide, in that it lifts & drops all ships in the ocean. This effect on an asset that has been experiencing exponential growth in it's fiat value since inception makes many of these chart patterns indiscernible, even in a logarithmic format. Hence why I try to focus on Litecoin's value in Bitcoin.
anatomy of a chinese pump rally, long overdue for a correctionWe finally had a small pullback from 544, but not nearly enough retracement or consolidation to support a continuation of this trend much further. The perfect periodic divisions of these rallies is causing so much anticipation that the bulls keep tripping over each other to be first in line, causing an acceleration of the rally attempts.
When a pattern becomes this predictable, it's doomed to fall apart under the weight of everyone expecting the same thing. Just needs the early smart money to decide to unload and we'll be back on the longer downtrend channels...
**UPDATE** I published this right before the 5th daily period was to begin, and right on schedule, just hours after the period divider, China delivers drama in the form of news from chbtc, okcoin, huobi, etc, all describing phone calls from major chinese banks saying they're going to close certain accounts. And there you have a textbook pump and dump, like we've seen in altcoins many times, but this time, pulling the whole BTC market along by the noserings...
**UPDATE** see my followup in the continuation of this trend here
BTCE BoT short off failed rallyHere is a great example of The BoT in action in a shorting situation. BTCE had just rallied back into an OTE short zone on the higher time frame charts (and was quickly rejected) so a pullback was to be expected. The BoT came alive when prices moved from 440 down into the 407 area and then rebounded back to 430 area. Looking for an ab=cd price pattern continuation here (and an ultimate target just under $400) The BoT suggested the 420 area itself would represent a level where (according to the model) the potential reward to risk setup would be 3:1. Notice how price itself put in a nice double top right at that level and then slowly gave everyone multiple opportunities to get in. Once the trade got going in earnest both the stop to break even and stop to trail levels where hit in short order. Since the ultimate target (397.04) has yet to be hit, and there has yet to be a serious bottom registered in either volume or momentum, i recon stops just above recent rally peaks (and the 13ema) are warranted on the 421 shorts. Of course, with Willy rather stupid at the moment, shorts and or sales simply are not realistic.
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