A Battle of TrendlinesToday the story on Bitcoin is quite simple from a technical perspective. We have a battle of trendlines occurring. On our price chart Bitcoin is back down to that purple ascending support. Technically, this is great news as we needed a retest here before further upmovement (if that is the current trajectory). However, there is some trouble on the RSI as we bang our heads on resistance. Which will win?
Btcetfspot
Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High Price Above $69,000 😱😱😱😱😱Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) today set a new all-time high price above $69,000, as investors and traders rush back into the cryptocurrency market.
The digital asset surged to about $69,324.58, according to price data on Coinbase. That's a 4% 24-hour rise. Over the past 30 days, the asset has soared by more than 58%. Its previous all-time high of $69,044 was set on November 2021, over two years ago.
Since the start of 2023, CRYPTOCAP:BTC is up by more than 300%. Prior to that, and following a brutal bear market, it was trading for less than $17,000 per coin.
The most significant catalyst is the approval and successful launch of 10 spot Bitcoin ETFs. After a decade of denials from the SEC, the tide turned in June of last year when BlackRock—the world's largest asset manager—submitted its own application for a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund.
The renewed interest from big investors and other major Wall Street firms that followed kickstarted a bullish Bitcoin rally, and the asset began to climb back up the price charts.
By the end of the year, Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) was trading comfortably above $42,000.
When the Securities and Exchange Commission finally approved Bitcoin ETFs in January, the price of Bitcoin got a modest bump, but then dipped as crypto traders appeared to "sell the news" and took their profits. Since late January, however, the price of Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) has skyrocketed as interest in ETF products increased and retail investors came back into the fold.
Bitcoin Bulls Are Not Quitting HereTraders,
As you might know, I went short on BTC at 60,500. That was when price lived just under our Multi-Year Support/Resistance TL from 2019. Obviously, I was betting that we would NOT break straight through. I was wrong and as I told my followers in our private chat, I never mind trading a bit of humility for some profit. Bulls have clearly demonstrated that they are in complete and total control. When the charts show me proof that I was wrong and new developments are in the making, I will quickly bow to the data. I know from experience that if I don't, I may lose valuable lost opportunities to profit more in the future if I don't.
More evidence of bull control comes in the way of the following technical developments:
Confirmation of a break above our TL
Bull Flag formed above our TL
New BLUE ascending TL spotted from 2022
Target of my Inverse H&S meets BLUE TL Exactly!
As you may be aware, I have now exited my BTC short and pending further price action on Monday I may begin to re-enter BTC LONG.
Until that time, I will be scouting for laggard altcoins that may still have time to pop further in attempts to play catch up.
Apologies to TradingView people but I don't always have time to post all of my trades here.
Stew
Bitcoin ETFs now available on TV. Easy Money As Never Before 😅Bitcoin ETFs now available on TradingView
NASDAQ:IBIT - iShares Bitcoin
AMEX:BITB - Bitwise Bitcoin
AMEX:DEFI - Tidal Bitcoin
AMEX:ARKB - ARK Bitcoin
AMEX:GBTC - Grayscale Bitcoin
AMEX:FBTC - Fidelity Bitcoin
AMEX:BTCW - WisdomTree Bitcoin
AMEX:BTCO - Invesco Bitcoin
NASDAQ:BRRR - Valkyrie Bitcoin
AMEX:HODL - VanEck Bitcoin
AMEX:EZBC - Franklin Bitcoin
SEC officially approves BTC Spot ETFs
Tip #1: use TV search box to filter, find, and sort all Bitcoin funds, just like the attached screenshot.
Tip #2: use TV search box to filter, find, and sort all Bitcoin futures, just like the attached screenshot.
Tip #3: Long 1st, Short 2nd
Tip #4: Enjoy the Money 🤣🤣🤣
Ten Reasons BTC Sould Hit $155k - $210k This Market Cycle But...Here's my revised "Potential Path To $150k+" chart, adding in 3 new factors that further point to the higher Fibonacci targets on this chart and potentially hitting $220k Bitcoin.
As the 3.618 accurately predicted the exact market cycle top in 2021 (drawn from the 2018 Hi / Low cycle)...
The same scenario could play out for the 2024 bull cycle, with each of these TEN factors potentially 'igniting' the other smoldering 'fires' into a giant bullish blaze.
Kind of like a good ol California forest fire. When the smaller fires meet, the blaze begins.
The following TEN factors show 3 potential levels for Bitcoin upside in 2024, which I've labeled as 3 scenarios described in more detail below (Likely, Probably and Possible).
1. BlackRock & Fidelity ETF's Approval - (Slated for this week by January 10th - 95% chance)).
2. QE Money Printing To Pay Down US Debt - (The US rising debt levels require easing soon).
3. Bank Failures, Bank Runs & Transfer Into BTC - (More bank failures are likely. BTFP ending).
4. Hyperinflation & De-Dollarization (BRICS) - (We haven't seen effects yet, but still brewing).
5. Corporate Accumulation - MSTR / Apple /Tesla - (MSTR raising 750M Common Stock for BTC).
6. Country Accumulation (New Reserve Currency) - (More will follow El Salvador this cycle).
7. Post-Halving Less Bitcoin Miner Selling ($12B) - (Miners will have less to sell > 2024 halving).
8. Less Available BTC On Exchanges - (More retail wallets will creasing demand / supply shock).
9. Increasing Political Support For Bitcoin - (Politicians joining the narrative will push in favor).
10. Bursting of the Sovereign Debt Bubble - ($35T of COVID money globally straining global economies).
Any ONE of these and likely the ETF approvals could and will be the needed 'spark' that ignites this Bitcoin forest fire, which will never be put out and only grow.
I've broken these down into 3 scenarios...
Likely Target ($100k) - Bitcoin was widely 'expected' to hit $100k in the last cycle, and the math supports the reasons why. With $20T+ in investable assets in Gold + Silver + US Real Estate in 2023, just 10% of this moved over to Bitcoin gives BTC a $2T market cap alone. It's also the 1.618 Fib target for the next cycle as shown.
Probable Target ($155k) - Looking at the bars pattern from the Oct 19th 2020 breakout, we can see a rapid rise in Bitcoin followed, driving price up to the April 2021 initial high for BTC. This also coincides with the 2.618 Fibonacci target on the charts.
Possible Target ($210k) - Again looking at the last cycle drop starting in Dec 2017, to the low in
Dec 2018, the 3.618 Fib target was exactly where the peak around 64K in April 2021.
Many believe this to be true 'high' although later we had a Wyckoff 'Thrust' higher to $69k.
In the near term, the bars patterns also shows confluence for a pause right at the Fib Golden Pocket between 48K and $50k. Since round numbers act as market magnets, I feel $50k is the next push higher before a meaningful profit taking pullback.
Also notable is the 21 week MA which has been an excellent support / resistance barometer over the years, and price has just firmly broken above that in recent weeks.
So this is looking very bullish to me here, and I'm expecting we go higher...
Time will tell if one or more of these scenarios come to pass!
But I've also added 3 potential negative scenarios (and may add a 4th) which may pour water on this fire from the start, and are unknowns worth noting.
1. It's the First Ever Macro Global Recession for Bitcoin (Could a US recession drag this down?)
2. Still Small Possibility of ETF Delay or Not Approved Yet (This would cause a massive sell-off)
3. Spot ETF's May Mark a Market Top Like in Previous Cycles (No way to know the ETF effect).
And here's a notiable #4 not yet on the chart...
4. Issues With BTFP Expiration Causing Bank Failures (Forcing the Fed to start dropping rates).
When the Fed actually starts Dropping Rates, markets usually go down initially...
See the excellent article Arthur Hays recently put out detailing this scenario.
What do you think will happen this week and into the Halving??
Bitcoin: ETF = sell the news event + pre-halving drop alignThe closer we get to a spot bitcoin ETF approval (~2nd to 10th of January 2024) the more I think it will play out as a crypto typical "sell the news" event. I kind of think it's priced in already and the latest rally was 90% driven by this narrative. Please don't get me wrong, I'm sure BTC-ETFs will have a positive impact on price for all the obvious reasons, but not immediately on approval but ~2 months later when the ETFs will actually be available.
And now imagine you are one of the Blackrock guys who want to sell their brand new btc ETF to large customers, wouldn't it be beautiful, if you could offer them BTC at a great price?
What I'm preparing for is this:
Sell the news event in early January 2024 --> price down to the green buying area (30k - 25k) and very maybe (though unlikely) even wicks down below closer to 20k.
Sideways into the halving ~18th of April 2024.
Next bull run 24/25 from there.
(Please note: the whole idea of a "sell the news" event around the ETF approval obviously only makes sense as long as BTC stays at least above 40k. If it sells off significantly (35-30k) before it might as well play out exactly the other way round and we'll see some ETF approval rally in January.)
BTC ETF! What Is Going To Happen In Markets ?In the next 25 days, the approval decision for the #Bitcoin ETF is anticipated. The market reaction to such news is often influenced by three types of news psychology:
> Sell The News: Traders may opt to sell their assets once the news is officially announced.
> Sell Before The News: Some investors may choose to sell their holdings in anticipation of the news, trying to secure profits or avoid potential losses.
> Buy The News: If the news is positive, there might be a surge in buying activity as investors seek to capitalize on the favorable outcome.
With the BTC ETF approval looming just 24 days away, it's crucial to consider these scenarios. The second scenario, "Sell Before The News," suggests that some traders may take a cautious approach by selling off assets ahead of the announcement. Following the news, the third scenario, "Buy The News," could come into play if the outcome is positive. Conversely, in the event of unfavorable news, the first scenario, "Sell The News," may result in a market sell-off.
Investors are advised to make their decisions based on their risk tolerance and market analysis, keeping these news psychology scenarios in mind.
This chart is likely to help you make better trade decisions if you consider upvoting it.
I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section.
Thank you
BTC Another disappointment for the bearshello dear trader and investors
If you follow my page, you know that I have already said that you should only buy Bitcoin, an economic crisis is coming...
Today I want to present another analysis
Bitcoin has reacted to the 0.23 Fibonacci retracement wave... the next target according to the harmonic pattern can be the 2.616 Fibo savior... which is a prz savior consisting of:
(dynamic resistance + fibou 0.618 + harmonic (ab=cd 2.618)
Another disappointment for the bears
good luck
Mehdi
BTC Dominance ideaAn idea about the BTC Dominance.
Thats the move that i expected to see till the BTC halving.
Already is on Breakout after the Fake news about BTC ETF.
But.. I expect to see higher moves with the upcoming hype about the BTC Spot ETF.
If we see a 10% pump at fake news what moves we will see after Blackrock and other big institutions will Start shill BTC to their customers ?
Bitcoin Trades this MorningTraders,
As you know, my original target is 31,600. Obviously, from the chart, you can see that 30k is significant resistance as well. Because of the quick pump this morning due to spot ETF approval news, I sold half my BTC at that 30k level. After dropping back down I decided to re-enter at 28k thinking that we'll now use that 200-day SMA for support. Overall target still remains 31,600, however, I may make another play at 30k pending price action, volatility, etc? SLs are 24,500 but honestly, I am considering taking them out completely and simply DCA'ing in another 10% of the total port for every level down we hit (if we get that lucky). We are getting close to moon time now for BTC and I don't want to be shaken out on the way down the way shorts were liquidated just this morning. I'll let you all know if/when I remove my stops.
Best,
Stew