BTC extremely bullish on the daily, but: dancing on razor's edgeLet’s keep this one very simple will we. We are all wondering where Bitcoin will be going and we are getting mixed signals from our friend for the time being. I just wanted to lay out the playing zone a little and highlight some details to pay attention to.
If we look on the daily here, the MACD couldn’t be more bullish, just making a golden cross , potentially hinting to tremendous upside.
But (!), if we look at the weekly , we see a somewhat different picture painted there, the MACD has just formed a death cross , and yes we have already seen quite some downward price movement upon that crossing. (don't mind all the drawings on the chart, just look at the MACD :-) )
Is the pain over?
Crucial support levels:
—> If we look at the chart, we can see that we have hit a strong support line on 04/02 (“1”) . The outlier in the price that day really hits that level (not the blue Fibonacci, but really that trendline. ( $6300-ish, bluntly speaking ).
—> The line just beneath it ("2") provides an even longer term support , and if price breaks through the line through 1, we might expect to touch upon the 78,6 in blue first, after that, we’ll have support on the lower white support line in “2" ($4K-ish).
Crucial resistance levels:
—> The downward trend channel with resistance line “3” is where Bitcoin should try to break through to end the current downward movement.
—> We also see the 61,8 dark green Fibonnacci line acting as a resistance.
—> If BTC breaks through, we can expect upward movement to 50% Fibonacci (target +-$11K) as new resistance.
—> Note that line 4 will also act as resistance in a later stage.
Conclusion:
- If we look at the 4-hourly, we see some downward movement to happen first (MACD), but this already happened to some extent.
- We also see something resembling an inverse head and shoulders (!), if the neckline there is broken, we can expect some nice upward bounce! (almost horizontal white line between 1 and 3)
- If we look at the daily, we have a golden cross in the daily MACD , which is very bullish, also the CCI is nicely curving upward .
- We need to break resistance line 3 here, as well as the Fibonacci 61,8 to confirm bullishness!
- The weekly still shows downward pressure, we have to keep an eye on the evolution there!
So: inverse H&S on the 4-hourly, golden cross on the daily as well as some crucial resistance levels to tackle, and the sword of Damocles on the weekly! That's what you have to keep in mind when doing all else in your analysis.
Consider it a quick bedtime story, cause in my time zone, it's bed time! ;-)
PS: this post should by no means by considered formal investment or speculation advice
PS 2: happy trading/speculating/investing!
