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After Bitcoin’s Stunning Rally. What Next?Bitcoin is surging through expectations defying rally. Bitcoin (“BTC”) stands 22% higher over the last seven days. At its highest on 28 Feb 2024, BTC at USD 64k was 7% shy of its all-time-high. Recent bitcoin (“BTC”) performance harkens back to the euphoric bull runs. Market metrics signal more steam in store. This note discusses BTC’s recent rally and the road ahead. Anticipating short-term consolidation, this paper posits a short position in BTC/ETH ratio. BITCOIN RALLY HAS MORE IN STORE BTC is soaring fuelled by a range of tailwinds including strong demand from newly listed spot BTC ETFs, expected BTC halving, and a broader crypto market rally. 1. On-chain metrics do not signal significant profit taking (yet). Long-term holders have shown resilience despite significant gains in their holdings. Unrealized gains can be inferred by the market-value-to-realised-value (“MVRV”) indicator . MVRV assesses the market capitalization of BTC relative to its realized capitalization. It is determined by the price at which coins were last traded. Current MVRV of 2.5x indicates that the current BTC prices are >2.5x the price at which coins last moved. Despite this, BTC supply that has remained unmoved in the past one year has remained surprisingly resilient. Supply not moved in more than a year is down 3.75% over the past three months while prices have rallied 53% and MVRV has remained >2x. During previous cycles, particularly, when price peaked, MVRV was closer to three times, profit taking rates were high causing physical BTC to change hands rapidly. Current conditions do not match previous drawdowns suggesting potential for consolidation limiting further gains. Past performance does not necessarily imply future trends. Current exchange inflows are near record highs. A substantial portion of these is from short-term holders rather than long-term holders. Source: Glassnode 2. Continued spot buying as well as strong ETF demand. ETF demand shows no signs of slowing. Since putting our last paper on 26th Feb , an additional USD 2.3B of inflows have surged into spot ETFs. The pace of daily net flows to ETFs reached its highest level to date on 29th Feb. Demand remains so solid that NASDAQ:IBIT became the fastest ETF to reach USD 10 billion in AUM, just 51 days after launch. Fidelity’s AMEX:FBTC is not far behind at USD 6.2 billion in AUM. GBTC outflows have continued but the pace of inflows has not reached those seen at the beginning. In addition to fund flows, traded volumes have also remained elevated. BTC ETF volumes reached USD 11 billion on 28th Feb when prices soared above USD 60k for the first time. Volume on ETFs was particularly high when price rallied to its peak of USD 64k. 3. Funding rates and options smile . Funding rates on BTC perpetual futures signal elevated levels of speculative bullish demand. Funding rates are at levels observed during past bull runs. Options markets are also pricing in further upside after last week. BTC options volatility curve of BTCH24 (March 2024) has shown a far higher forward skew compared to prior week. This is indicative of higher price for calls (bullishness) compared to puts (bearishness). Source: QuikStrike Call/Put skew over the past month shows that skew for calls have started to expand once more following sharp rally above USD 60k on 28th Feb. Source: QuikStrike BITCOIN NOW FACES RESISTANCE Source: Coinglass BTC market suffered large liquidations following sharp rally on 28th Feb. Liquidations were spread across both longs and shorts, but overall short liquidations were higher. Across two more periods when price failed to surpass USD 63k definitively, long positions were liquidated once more. Still, since then liquidations have been much smaller than the peak. Price remains rangebound after crossing USD 60k. It faced resistance crossing past USD 65k and maintained support above USD 60k. BTC-ETH SPREAD LIKELY TO RALLY BTC rallies typically precede ETH rallies as described before . Since that paper was published, the spread is merely 4% lower. The spread remains elevated relative to historical levels. ETH has its unique tailwinds pushing it higher independent of BTC and the broader crypto market. Higher ETH burn due to greater on-chain activity is reducing ETH supply. Moreover, decisions on spot ETH ETFs are expected by May 2024. While the final decision remains uncertain, the approaching deadline is likely to fuel bullish sentiments. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP BTC price is sharply higher and close to its previous all-time-high. Tailwinds for BTC remain intact. It faces near-term price consolidation following the sharp rally. BTC price consolidation will favour ETH in BTC/ETH spread. ETH outperformed BTC during periods of consolidation in the past. A spread position comprising of long Micro ETH futures and short Micro BTC futures allows investors to gain exposure to this trend with a 50% margin offset. Micro ETH futures offer exposure to 0.1ETH and Micro BTC futures provide exposure to 0.1BTC. Thus, eighteen contracts of METH2024 are required to match notional for one contract of MBTH2024. The below hypothetical trade setup offers a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.8x: • Entry: 18.35 • Target: 16.87 • Stop Loss: 19.50 • Profit at Target: USD 5,255 (+8.1%) • Loss at Stop: USD 4,025 (-6.2%) • Reward to Risk: 1.3x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:MBT1!Short
by mintdotfinance
The Week Ahead for Bitcoin - Battle for $48kLet’s make this as simple as possible for Bitcoin. It’s really this - Bitcoin must beat 48k to continue the bullish trend and confirm that larger cup and handle pattern is in play which will take us to 80k. If we don’t beat 48k soon, then I expect another small pullback. However, it may not be as deep of a pullback as other analysts expect. According to my chart technicals, most indicators are still hyper-bullish. Therefore, I’d say we may only pullback to 42k at most. If we do beat 48k, that’s our signal that the bullish trend will continue. We have to be quick about entries if we want to play the continuation. Normally, my rule is to wait for at least one confirmation candle on the daily. Because of the bullishness of price right now, I’d make an exception to this rule. If we don’t make this exception, we could miss out on big price movement. It’s up to you how you want to play entries at this point and, as always, it’s based on your own personal risk tolerance. If you are a more aggressive trader, I’d suggest jumping down to the 4hr chart and looking for confirmation there.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by stewdamus
BTC/USDT 1DAY AND 4HOUR CHART UPDATE BY CRYPTOSANDERS !!Hello friends, welcome to this BITCOIN update from Crypto Sanders. Chart Analysis:- Analyzing Bitcoin’s (BTC) oscillators provides an essential snapshot of its current market stance. The relative strength index (RSI) at 56, Stochastic at 54, and commodity channel index (CCI) at 18 align in a neutral zone. This neutrality signals a balanced market sentiment, with neither overbought nor oversold conditions prevailing. These indicators suggest a period of consolidation, with potential shifts contingent on broader market influences. The story told by bitcoin’s moving averages is one of subtle optimism. Similar to the past few weeks of analysis, the exponential moving averages (EMAs) over 10, 20, 30, 50, 100, and 200 days predominantly signal bullish sentiment, despite the 10-day EMA presenting some bearish sentiment. Conversely, the simple moving averages (SMAs) for these same periods also indicate positivity, including the 10-day SMA. This divergence in the shorter-term EMA reflects the inherent volatility and rapid shifts in market sentiment typical of crypto assets. bitcoin has shown a strong uptrend, moving from a low of 15,479 to a peak of 44,729. However, the appearance of a significant Dec. 10 red candle with a long upper wick suggests possible resistance to higher prices or profit-taking activities. The volume, not showing a significant increase, hints at a cautious approach by traders, possibly indicating a lack of strong buying conviction. As suggested by the daily chart, a prudent strategy would be to await a retracement towards key support levels for entry points. These levels could be previous resistance points or moving averages not explicitly marked. For exits or profit-taking, one should monitor the peak prices or the emergence of bearish patterns like multiple long upper wick candles, indicative of potential reversals. The 4-hour chart offers a more granular view of Bitcoin’s price action, confirming the uptrend seen in the daily chart. Post-peak, the cryptocurrency entered a consolidation phase, marked by volatility and relatively low volume, suggesting a lack of significant sell-off. Entry strategies could involve observing price behavior at current levels or waiting for a rebound from a support level. In contrast, an exit strategy might include setting a stop-loss just below the recent consolidation to mitigate the risks of a breakdown. The confluence of neutral to positive signals from oscillators and moving averages, coupled with Bitcoin’s resilient performance on the daily and 4-hour charts, points towards an optimistic outlook. The absence of clear overbought conditions and the cryptocurrency’s ability to sustain above key support levels paint a bullish picture. Despite the current stability, underlying bearish signals cannot be overlooked. The mixed signals from the 10-day EMA and the appearance of the Dec. 10 red candle with a long upper wick on the daily chart hint at possible resistance and profit-taking. Should Bitcoin fail to sustain its current levels and break below key support zones, this could trigger a bearish reversal. I have tried to bring the best possible results in this chart. If you like it, hit the like button and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you.
Long
by CryptoSanders9563
1
ETH vs BTC? It depends: See why!The TPI (Trend Probability Indicator) tells you if the trend of an asset-class or commodity is bearish or bullish. It has values that range from -1 to +1, where -1 is bearish, and +1 is bullish. Values between -0.2 - 0.2 are neutral, and we expect market to be ranging and mean reverting at that TPI score. The TPI works on all timeframes above the 4H timeframe. I use it to manage a modern portfolio where I use longs and shorts. Here is how I try to mitigate my risk, and maximize my profits by for example reading when ETH will out/underperform BTC.
by IkkeOmar
BTC/USDT 1DAY UPDATE BY CRYPTOSANDERS !!Hello, welcome to this BTC/USDT update by CRYPTO SANDERS. CHART ANALYSIS:- After falling to its lowest point since Monday late in yesterday’s session, bitcoin (BTC) was marginally higher today. BTC/USD fell to a low of 26,389.30 on Thursday, and at the time of writing, has rebounded to 26,641.77. still remains below yesterday’s peak of 26,786.10 and almost 1,000 away from a recent three-week high. The decline comes as the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) fell to a one-week low in the last 24 hours, before finding a stable floor. price strength is tracking at 50.77, which is marginally above the aforementioned support at 50.00. Should bulls opt to reenter after recent days of consolidation, they will likely target the 56.00 level on the indicator. I have tried to bring the best possible outcome to this chart. Hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you
Long
by CryptoSanders9563
3
BTC/USDT 4HOUR UPDATE BY CRYPTOSANDERS !!Hello, welcome to this BTC/USDT update by CRYPTO SANDERS. CHART ANALYSIS:- 4-hour chart, the recent price action becomes a lot clearer. The market has recently been rejected from the 27,500 short-term resistance level and has been declining towards the 25K support area. The RSI indicator is also showing values below 50%, emphasizing the current bearish momentum in price. Therefore, if the 25K level breaks down, things can get ugly quickly. I have tried to bring the best possible outcome to this chart. Hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you
Long
by CryptoSanders9563
BTC/USDT 1DAY UPDATE BY CRYPTO SANDERS !!Hello, welcome to this BTC/USDT update by CRYPTO SANDERS. CHART ANALYSIS:- Bitcoin was trading below 26,000 on Labor Day, as volume in the cryptocurrency market was mostly lower. BTC/USD slipped to an intraday low of 25,817.03 to start the week, following a high of 26,087.15 the day prior. The decline pushed Bitcoin closer to a collision with support at $25,600, however, bulls have so far rejected this retracement. This comes as the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) found a floor of its own at the 35.00 mark, helping to ease the bearish pressure. the index is now tracking at 37.16, with the next visible resistance point at 43.00. In the event that this ceiling is broken, BTC bulls will likely make advancements toward 28,000. I have tried to bring the best possible outcome to this chart. Hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you
Long
by CryptoSanders9563
BTC/USDT 1DAY UPDATE BY CRYPTO SANDERS !!Hello, welcome to this BTC/USDT update by CRYPTO SANDERS. CHART ANALYSIS:- Bitcoin continued to trend lower on Saturday, as the bears were once again in control of crypto market sentiment. Following a high of 28,148 on Tuesday, BTC/USD started the weekend falling to a low of 25,362.61. The decline has come as a result of profit-taking, and also the changing economic climate in the United States. Consumer spending is slowing, whilst the labor market remains tight as a result of increasing interest rates. today’s decline pushed bitcoin below a key support point of 25,600, however, bulls have since reentered. BTC is now trading at 25,818.66, with a target of 26,000 likely to be present throughout the weekend. I have tried to bring the best possible outcome to this chart. Hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you
Long
by CryptoSanders9563
BTC/USD 1DAY UPDATE BY CRYPTO SANDERS !!hello, welcome to this BTC/USDT update by CRYPTO SANDERS. CHART ANALYSIS:- Bitcoin (BTC) continued to hover near the 29,000 level to start the week, as market volatility was mostly muted on Monday. After Sunday’s low at 28,963.83, BTC/USD jumped to a high of 29,166.82 earlier in today’s session. The world’s largest cryptocurrency has mostly been trading between a support level of 28,800 and a resistance of $29,500 for the majority of the last week. the relative strength index (RSI) is also tracking near a floor of its own around the 42.00 mark. In addition to this, the 10-day (red) moving average has begun to flatline following a downtrend, which is a sign of price stagnation. Consolidation could likely continue until Wednesday’s inflation report in the United States. I have tried to bring the best possible outcome to this chart. Hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you
Long
by CryptoSanders9563
2
BTC/USD 1DAY UPDATE BY CRYPTO SANDERS !!hello, welcome to this BTC/USDT update by CRYPTO SANDERS. CHART ANALYSIS:- Bitcoin (BTC) consolidated around the 29,000 level on Friday, as traders readied themselves for the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. BTC/USD rose to an intraday high of 29,375.71 in today’s session, following an earlier low of 29,066.24. Earlier gains have since faded, however, with the world’s largest cryptocurrency now trading at the 29,145.77 mark. The decline comes as the relative strength index (RSI) fell back toward a support point of 42.00. After hitting a ceiling above 51.00 in recent days, price strength is now tracking at a reading of 43.71. There is still optimism that bulls could reenter the market after today’s report, with the 29,500 level as an initial target. I have tried to bring the best possible outcome to this chart. Hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you
Long
by CryptoSanders9563
BTC/USD 1DAY UPDATE BY CRYPTO SANDERS !!hello, welcome to this BTC/USDT update by CRYPTO SANDERS. CHART ANALYSIS:- Bitcoin (BTC) continued to trade above the 29,000 mark on Friday, despite bearish pressure intensifying in today’s session. After hitting a high of 29,520.71 on Thursday, BTC/USD dropped to an intraday low of 29,099.35 earlier in the day. The move saw bitcoin briefly fall below a support point at 29,200, however, prices have since climbed back above this point. This latest slippage comes as the 10-day (red) moving average continued its downward cross versus its 25-day (blue) counterpart. In addition to this, the relative strength index (RSI) neared a breakout below a floor at 41.00, however, it has so far avoided this. Should this occur, BTC's next possible destination could be 28,000. I have tried to bring the best possible outcome to this chart. Hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you
by CryptoSanders9563
BTC/USD 1DAY UPDATE BY CRYPTO SANDERS !!Hello, welcome to this BTC/USDT update by CRYPTO SANDERS. CHART ANALYSIS:- Bitcoin moved above the 30,000 level in today’s session, ahead of a testimony by the chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. Powell will be speaking today for the first time since the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged in June. BTC/USD hit a peak at 30,737.33 earlier in the day. This is the strongest point that Bitcoin has hit since April 14, when the price reached a top at 31,050. Another major catalyst for the move was a crossover of moving averages (MA), with the 10-day (red) MA, moving above its 25-day (blue) counterpart. the relative strength index (RSI) has also marginally broken out of a ceiling at 70.00 and is now tracking at 70.88. I have tried to bring the best possible outcome to this chart. Hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptoSanders9563
3
BTC/USD 1DAY UPDATE BY CRYPTO SANDERS !!Hello, welcome to this BTC/USDT update by CRYPTO SANDERS. CHART ANALYSIS:- Bitcoin rose to a two-week high on Tuesday, as bullish sentiment made a gradual return to the marketplace. Following a low of 26,338.54 to start the week, BTC/USD rose to an intraday high of 27,147.47 on Tuesday. bitcoin rose to its strongest point since June 7, when it peaked at 27,402. it appears that today’s rally coincided with the relative strength index (RSI) also breaking out of a ceiling of its own at the 50.00 mark. Price strength now stands at 51.71 with the next visible resistance level at 57.00. In the event bulls are able to send the index to this point, there is a good chance that BTC will be above 28,500. I have tried to bring the best possible outcome to this chart. Hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you
by CryptoSanders9563
ETH/USD 1DAY UPDATE BY CRYPTO SANDERS !!Hello, welcome to this ETH/USDT update by CRYPTO SANDERS. CHART ANALYSIS:- Ethereum (ETH) also rebounded strongly to start the weekend, days after falling to a three-month low Following a low of 1,653.17 on Friday, ETH/USD raced to an intraday peak at the 1,766.76 level earlier today. ETH fell to a bottom at 1,620 on Thursday, which was the weakest point that the price had hit since March 13. a breakout of the RSI was one of the triggers of the move, with price strength climbing past a ceiling of 41.00. The index is currently at a reading of 43.79, with the next resistance level at the 50.00 mark. I have tried to bring the best possible outcome to this chart. Hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you
by CryptoSanders9563
3
BTC/USD 1DAY UPDATE BY CRYPTO SANDERS !!Hello, welcome to this BTC/USDT update by CRYPTO SANDERS. CHART ANALYSIS:- Bitcoin (BTC) surged on Saturday, as bulls of the cryptocurrency moved to buy the recent dip in price. BTC/USD rose to a high of 26,769.39 to start the weekend, which comes less than a day after trading at a low of 25,245.36. The move pushed the price to its highest point since May 8, a day when the price was at a peak of 26,820. Looking at the chart, the rally came when the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) finally broke out of a key ceiling at 43.00. the index is tracking at 50.55, which is close to a new resistance at the 51.00 level. Traders are likely targeting the 27,300 level and could hit this if the momentum continues to be bullish this weekend. I have tried to bring the best possible outcome to this chart. Hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you
by CryptoSanders9563
2
BTC/USD 1DAY UPDATE BY CRYPTO SANDERS !!Hello, welcome to this BTC/USDT update by CRYPTO SANDERS. CHART ANALYSIS:- Bitcoin (BTC) consolidated during Thursday’s session, as market volatility remained high ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision BTC/USD slipped to a low of 26,146.99 earlier in the day, which comes less than 24 hours after trading at 26,897.25. Today’s move saw the world’s largest cryptocurrency briefly break out of a key support point at 26,300. BTC bulls have moved to buy the dip in price, with the cryptocurrency now once again above this floor. This comes as the relative strength index (RSI) pivots from a recent free fall, and is now en route to a ceiling at 47.00. the index is tracking at 44.87, which comes as the 10-day (red) moving average fell below its 25-day (blue) counterpart. I have tried to bring the best possible outcome to this chart. Hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptoSanders9563