What more do you want to FOLLOW ME NOW!!!I have been posting and posting and posting. Ideas, videos, streams, …… EVERYTHING! Trying to HELP you. And you are not helping yourself! You just decided to keep doing yourself a disservice. To keep doing your FAMILY a disservice. To keep doing your KIDS a disservice. To keep doing your MOM a disservice. To keep doing your enemies a FULL SERVICE!
How many times I said I am only here for one year for a BIG message. A message that will change your whole existence. I am here to transform and change. A
Are you going to follow me now??? Or you will keep living in denial, missing an opportunity after another?!
Btceth
Be wary of crypto pumps I still expect BTC to do this...Traders,
Careful here. Tame your excitement a bit. I have not departed from my original expectation that BTC should drawback to retest our C&H neckline before engaging in more battle with our big area of overhead resistance. I still believe this to be true. And we know that what the lead dawg does is usually exaggerated in the altcoin space. So, watch closely.
Stew
Bitcoin Completed Its Inverse Head and Shoulders - What's Next?Bitcoin had a massive rebound (almost 50%) following the failures of Silvergate, Signature, and Silicon Valley Bank. It's hard to believe given the lack of financial stability of some banks and the uncertainty in the markets that BTC would have such a big jump within a week, but technically speaking this move is very bullish. Considering this, I could see BTC doing one of two things. 1) Mega Bull Scenario - BTC flags up here and rockets to higher highs it hasn't seen for some time 2) BTC revisits the neckline around $25k before moving upward. I personally prefer scenario 2 because I don't like seeing over-extended runs that result in extremely fast moves to the downside. Plus, it's healthier for the sustainability of the bull run to have small corrections after each strong move. I think the neckline is an ideal place to reload and prepare for the next leg up.
DISCLAIMER: There is a lot of uncertainty in the markets at the moment. With a potential financial crisis brewing in the financial sector, the bullishness of this run could turn bearish very quickly. Have a plan in place just in case.
You don't know how to manage your portfolioI had a talk with my mentor earlier today, and we talked about how we each calculate the signal for our allocation towards ETH compared to BTC.
It got me thinking that a lot of people actually aren't aware of why they allocate capital to different assets in the same class!
Case in an upwards trend
When the trend is up and you want to maximize your returns in crypto, with the least amount of risk... What do you do?
Well, you know that alts are higher beta (they move more than BTC), but you don't know when BTC will alts...
In the case for my conservative portfolio I only hold ETH and BTC, but how do I allocate between them?
What I first and foremost do is look at the dominance chart for BTC:
Here we see the dominance of BTC going down a lot, this is while the market is up (between 18th of jan 2021 and 19th of may 2021)
The TPI informed us about the entire trend for the dominance chart. What you do in this scenario is now determine how much ETH you hold relative to BTC in this period (in your conservative portfolio)
Open the ETH/BTC chart (I use binance personally)
In this period we see ETH outperforming BTC a lot!
When the TPI is bullish for the ETH/BTC pair, it means that ETH is likely to outperform BTC, how did that prediction go?
As BTC dominance falls, and we see strength in ETH compared to BTC, we have a higher allocation towards ETH.
But Omar, how do I quantize the amount of ETH compared to BTC?
No one asked, but I will answer still:
The TPI gives values between -1 and 1, I normalize these values between 0-1 for the ETH/BTC pair, where 0 is 0% allocation and 1 is 100% allocation towards ETH:
Equation for normalization:
minValue = 0
maxValue = 1
(TPI - minValue) / (maxValue - minValue) => (TPI - 0) / (1- 0)
Since the TPI had been bearish with a TPI value at -1 for ETH/BTC since the 13th of march, 100% of my conservative portfolio is in BTC!
Case in a downwards trend
The method is the same, but reversed!
When we look to maximize our returns on a short we want to short the asset that is underperforming!
ETH was underperforming BTC by a large portion during the LUNA drama:
This means most of the conservative portfolio was short ETH, rather than BTC
Quite simple, but very effective!
In conclusion
I want you to ask your self, why am I allocating x% of my capital towards this asset (long or short), and is my allocation optimal?
If you can't answer these two questions, then you probably need to look at your system
Numbers don't lie, this method works!
The TPI is truly the holy grail for a swing trader who wants to use statistics and data to maximize their returns and minimize their risk!
Kind regards
Omar
I've linked an idea below from a dear friend of mine (much bigger than on this platform) who has marked out crutial levels for the altcoin market based on what the FED will do, give it a watch!
BTC/USD 1DAY UPDATE BY CRYPTO SANDERS !!Hello, welcome to this BITCOIN /USD update by CRYPTO SANDERS.
CHART ANALYSIS:-Bitcoin ( BTC ) fell from earlier highs on Tuesday, as momentum in cryptocurrency markets rapidly changed as the day progressed.
Following a high of $25,126.85 earlier in today’s session, BTC/USD has since gone on to fall to a low of $24,642.57.
Tuesday’s earlier high sent the world’s largest cryptocurrency to its strongest point since June 13.
Overall, prices slipped as bulls were unable to force a breakout of a resistance level at the $25,200 mark.
In addition, the relative strength index (RSI) also failed to move beyond its own ceiling at 66.00.
As of writing, the index is tracking at 63.29, which is marginally above a support zone of 61.00.
I have tried to bring the best possible outcome to this chart.
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BTC/USD 1DAY UPDATE BY CRYPTO SANDERS !!Hello, welcome to this BITCOIN /USD update by CRYPTO SANDERS.
CHART ANALYSIS:-Bitcoin ( BTC ) BTC has also formed an Adam and Eve chart pattern and attempting to break out its neckline and making it weak in each attempt of breakout.
We've to wait for a breakout with a successful retest above it, which would confirm a strong bullish rally in the market.
If the bottom is closed then the chat will be invalid
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BTC/USD 1DAY UPDATE BY CRYPTO SANDERS !!Hello, welcome to this BITCOIN /USD update by CRYPTO SANDERS.
CHART ANALYSIS:-Bitcoin ( BTC ) rebounded from recent losses in today’s session, as prices moved closer to the $22,000 level.
BTC/USD hit an intraday high of $21,849.01 earlier in the day, which comes after falling to a low of $21,460.09 on Monday.
Today’s action saw bitcoin snap a two-day losing streak, and comes as prices rejected a full breakout of a floor at $21,500.
Looking at the chart, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) also rejected a break of its own, with the index remaining above its support at 44.00.
As of writing, price strength is at a reading of 47.86, with a resistance of 50.00 nearby.
In order for BTC bulls to take the price above the $22,000 mark, this point of resistance will need to be broken.
I have tried to bring the best possible outcome to this chart.
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The market is at a crossroadsOver the weekend, Bitcoin jumped above $22 000. However, the rebound did not last long, and Bitcoin fell toward the $21 700 price tag, where it currently trades. We have not yet seen developments confirming the short-term trend reversal (from bullish to bearish). Therefore we are very cautious and pay close attention to two particular price levels at $21 473 (support) and $22 314 (resistance). If the price breaks below $21 473, it will further bolster a bearish case in the short term; in such a scenario, we would like to see a pick-up in volume. On the other hand, a breakout above $22 314 will support a bullish case, potentially hinting at a retest of $22 500 and $23 000.
Besides mentioned price levels, we also watch the price action in the stock market to which Bitcoin stays highly correlated. To support a bearish case, we would like to see stocks go lower, sparking risk aversion among investors. Contrarily, to support a bullish case, we would want to see the stock market start erasing some of its recent losses, providing aid for the cryptocurrency market. Overall, we would say that the market is at a critical point where it might either start breaking down or recovering losses and marching higher.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages. The 20-day SMA acts as another form of resistance. Meanwhile, the 50-day SMA has a role of support.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the weekly chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates a price retracement toward the 50-week SMA, which often coincides with the strong correction of a primary trend.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BTC/USD 1DAY UPDATE BY CRYPTO SANDERS !!Hello, welcome to this BITCOIN /USD update by CRYPTO SANDERS.
CHART ANALYSIS:-Bitcoin ( BTC ) extended recent declines on Friday, with prices falling below the $22,000 mark for the first time in several weeks.
BTC/USD fell to an intraday low of $21,754.13 earlier today, which comes less than 24 hours after trading at $22,770.22.
As a result of this drop, bitcoin moved to its weakest point since January 20, when the price bottomed at $20,865.
From the chart, the sell-off took place following a break out of a resistance level at $22,500, which had mostly held firm since late January.
In addition to this, the 14-day relative strength index(RSI) also dropped, falling to its lowest point in over a month.
After weeks in overbought territory, price strength has started to subside, which could act as a long-term positive for bulls, whose next target will likely be $25,000.
I have tried to bring the best possible outcome to this chart.
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BTC/USD 1DAY UPDATE BY CRYPTO SANDERS !!Hello, welcome to this BITCOIN /USD update by CRYPTO SANDERS.
CHART ANALYSIS:-Bitcoin ( BTC ) Bitcoin (BTC) moved higher on Wednesday, following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Speaking yesterday, Powell stated, “The reality is we’re going to react to the data. So if we continue to get, for example, strong labor market reports or higher inflation reports, it may well be the case that we have to do more and raise rates more than is priced in.”
BTC/USD rose to an intraday high of $23,367.96 earlier today, less than 24 hours after hitting a low of $22,781.95.
Looking at the chart, the move pushed bitcoin to its strongest point in four days and came as the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) ran into a ceiling.
The index rose to a ceiling at 65.00, however, momentum was not strong enough to break out of this point.
As of writing, the index is tracking at 62.92, with BTC falling from earlier highs, and currently trading at $23,195.36.
I have tried to bring the best possible outcome to this chart.
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#BTC/USDT 2hour update !!Hello and welcome to this BTC /USDT chart update by Crypto Sanders.
I have tried to bring the best possible result in this chart.
Chart Analysis:- hello friend welcome to btc 2hr update btc is forming a bearish expanding pattern expect btc to fall from here so close your positions open long positions and short only after seeing the market face.
This is not a piece of financial advice.
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BTCETH Price PredictionBTCETH is forming an ascending triangle on 4h timeframe and upwards breakout is expected as bullish structure has also formed.
The target is 15.
new analysis It's really hard to explain this
but we have a slight downpour, and then about 1 month to 45 days the market is bullish , and the altcoin will grow between 100 and 1000%, currencies with high market caps like Ethereum 100% and currencies with low market caps up to 1000%,
and then we have a terrible fall that many currencies will be destroyed
if you like analysis with me. Join me and make a profit to message me or comment
I put 7 new analyzes I will let you see all the analysis to pay attention to the analysis dates and do not harm
BITCOIN/USD 1DAY UPDATE BY CRYPTO SANDERS !! Hello, welcome to this BITCOIN /USD update by CRYPTO SANDERS.
CHART ANALYSIS:-Bitcoin ( BTC ) moved to a fresh five-month high earlier in the session, as markets reacted to Tesla’s latest quarterly earnings report.
The report, which was released after yesterday’s closing bell, showed that the electric vehicle maker did not sell any of its bitcoin.
Following the news, BTC/USD raced to a high of $23,722.10, hitting its strongest point since August 17 in the process.
Looking at the chart, the move saw BTC once again break out of a ceiling at $23,500, and this comes after colliding with a floor at $22,500.
Earlier gains have somewhat eased, with the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) back in overbought territory.
As of writing, the index is tracking at 80.77, with a support point at 78.00 the next visible target.
I have tried to bring the best possible outcome to this chart.
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BITCOIN DOMINANCE UPDATE BY CRYPTO.SANDERS !!Hello, welcome to this BITCOIN dominance update by CRYPTO SANDERS.
CHART ANALYSIS:-BTC DOMINANCE A small update on BTC dominance that is pumping up BTC. usdt.d similarly dumping btc dominance which is forcing btc peers to dump older coins btc has created support by breaking the local resistance zone next target of btc dominance may go from 47% to 49% this strong resistance level btc is from here dominance job will be rejected in bottom trade so btc altcoin is going to give very good rally so we will do some update by entering btc pair coin and spot it. thanks for reading my update
I have tried to bring the best possible outcome to this chart.
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Bitcoin 200ma Buyers and ShortersIn the history of bitcoin, the 200ma on the weekly has been a good place to buy before a great rally upwards. This time, buyers of the 200ma weekly were in loss to about 30.5%. Shorters of the 200ma weekly got a 2R trade. Price is now at their entry again. This is tracking the long entries that have been waiting for a significant rise since the drop.
R is risk. The number in front is the multiple of that risk. Risk is calculated by how much price goes in the opposite direction of your bias after your entry, before finally going in your favor. This is the concept of actual risk.
BTC & ETH Comparison where the rally will stop ?Hello Everyone,
Welcome Back, Well We anticipated the region for Ethereum to short around 1350 1370 but now as per the Footprints and Positive Delta,
we come to know that Ethereum might stay in this range and try to flip it into support for further continuation towards 1500$
having said that there is high possibilities that BTC might do the same as Ethereum did.
So far so good no sign of weakness has been spotted in both charts, so becarefull while you shorting an uptrend
patience is the name of the game
Disclaimer :
All information is only for educational and entertainment purpose , do paper trades only.
Bitcoin is getting stuck within the narrow rangeBitcoin is getting stuck within the narrow range, manifesting a neutral trend. It currently trades near $17 200, which is slightly below the range's upper bound. In the big picture, we continue to be bearish on Bitcoin. However, the lack of a trend makes a case for both scenarios, bullish and bearish. Therefore, we will pay close attention to the price action and setup we introduced a while ago (displayed in Illustration 1.01).
If the price breaks above the range, then we may expect a short-term rally. Though, in such a scenario, we do not expect it to impact the primary bearish trend. At best, we can imagine BTCUSD rallying to $20 000 (but we are very skeptical about that). Therefore, if a breakout to the upside occurs, we will monitor volume and look for signs of exhaustion. Contrarily, a breakout to the downside will bolster the bearish case, potentially leading Bitcoin to new lows.
In addition to what we stated, the bullish case can get additional support from the stock market (if it continues higher), providing a temporary lifeline for cryptocurrencies. However, if that happens, we once again expect it to be only short-lived. With that said, we maintain our price targets for Bitcoin at $15 000 and $13 000.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and a series of breakouts from the narrow range with subsequent invalidations; the range grows in significance.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows simple support/resistance levels for BTCUSD.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
ETH - Lesser of the Two Crypto BearsCrypto winter is here. Is this the darkest before dawn? Or the start of a long artic winter ahead?
In such nebulous times, directional bets are rife with risks. In contrast, spread trades vastly lowers risk while enabling limited but durable returns.
Set against the current macro backdrop and landscape shift in the industry, this case study will argue that Ether exhibits greater price resilience relative to Bitcoin prices.
Accordingly, a long position in CME Micro Ether Futures combined with a short position in CME Micro Bitcoin Futures provides an opportunity to extract yield in a bearish market.
Spread entry at 0.0721 with a target at 0.0793 delivers a reward to risk ratio of 1.88 with returns of $1,660. A stop loss of 0.0684 will limit losses from the spread trade to $880.
A RESILIENT ETHER?
Crypto winter plus recession fears in major economies will keep crypto prices subdued with continuing downside pressure.
After a successful massive upgrade last year, the Ethereum blockchain reduced its carbon footprint. Next big enhancement is the Shanghai upgrade expected in March. This upgrade enables withdrawal of staked Ether representing ~13% of the entire supply.
Staked Ether withdrawal will be gradual. Even though this might increase selling pressure, it will be less so relative to what Bitcoin faces as described below.
GBTC LINKED BITCOIN SELLING PRESSURE
Last November, Genesis (a major crypto lender) halted withdrawals citing a $1 billion shortfall. Genesis is looking to avoid bankruptcy filing. Its bankruptcy could spell contagion in crypto markets accelerating selling pressure.
Genesis’ parent company Digital Currency Group ("DCG") operates the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. Grayscale’s flagship product GBTC has suffered sharp sell-off resulting in a staggering 45% discount to NAV presently.
Grayscale’s attempt to convert GBTC to a spot BTC ETF allows them to rebalance their holdings to narrow the discount. But their application to transform into an ETF has been denied by the SEC. Grayscale is appealing against the SEC’s decision in court with an outcome anticipated this quarter.
If the ruling goes against them, Grayscale plans to offload up to 20% of GBTC shares leading to sales of 128,000 bitcoins which will send its prices tanking.
BITCOIN MARKET CYCLES – WILL HISTORY REPEAT? PERHAPS NOT.
Crypto winter is not new. Previous winter cycles of extended periods of subdued price action were followed by massive bull rally. Hope springs eternal but this time could be different.
Bitcoin as an asset class will face recessionary environment for the first time ever. Unlike in 2018, long term holders (>1Y) have not moved their holdings this time around but hold massive losses on their portfolios down some 50% to 80% which could aggravate bitcoin downside pressures when selling begins.
POOR FUNDAMENTALS BUT NEUTRAL TECHNICAL SIGNALS IN BITCOIN
Bitcoin’s long-term moving average has served as a strong resistance and continues to be in a downtrend.
Falling realised volatility points to a sideways market with limited liquidity and leverage. Declining market volume vindicates that. Orange Fibonacci retracement level which proved to be strong resistance also coincides with the pivot level P could be challenged once the Grayscale-SEC court ruling is out later this quarter.
ETHER TECHNICALS POINT TO A SIDEWAYS MARKET DESPITE OUTPERFORMANCE OVER BITCOIN
Ether has remained highly correlated with Bitcoin for the past two months. The long-term (100-day) moving average has served as a weak resistance as Ether broke through this level during November. The long-term moving average has become flat over the past two months in sharp contrast to a bearish one for Bitcoin.
In the previous period of low HV (October to November), Ether outperformed Bitcoin by a stunning 22%.
Stochastic for both Bitcoin and Ether point to oversold levels.
OPTIONS MARKET FAVORS ETHER OVER BITCOIN
Bitcoin has a put/call ratio of 2.5 on the CME in sharp distinction to Ether’s put/call ratio of only 0.8. On Deribit markets, put call for Ether is two-times lower relative to Bitcoin. Options traders clearly favor Ether over Bitcoin.
TRADE SETUP
A spread position of long CME Micro Ether Futures and short CME Micro Bitcoin futures.
Spread trades require notional values of each leg to be equal. Each contract of CME Micro Ether Futures and CME Micro Bitcoin Futures both expiring in Feb 2023 provides exposure to 0.1 Ether ($120) and 0.1 Bitcoin ($1,665), respectively.
Fourteen (14) lots of long positions in CME Micro Ether Futures will provide a notional value of $1,680 to offset one lot of CME Micro Bitcoin Futures which has notional $1,665.
Entry: 0.0721
Target: 0.0793
Stop Loss: 0.0684
Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.88
Profit at Target: $1,660
Loss at Stop Loss: $880
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any person.
Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience.
Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk.
These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
new analysisIt's really hard to explain this
but we have a slight downpour, and then about 1 month to 45 days the market is bullish , and the altcoin will grow between 100 and 1000%, currencies with high market caps like Ethereum 100% and currencies with low market caps up to 1000%,
and then we have a terrible fall that many currencies will be destroyed
if you like analysis with me. Join me and make a profit to message me or comment
I put 7 new analyzes I will let you see all the analysis to pay attention to the analysis dates and do not harm